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1、Top picks,Hold,Hold,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Hold,Hold,Hold,Buy,Buy,Buy,Buy,Sell,130,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,EuropeUnited KingdomMetals&Mining,Industry3Q12 productionpreview,Date8 October 2012Industry UpdateRob Clifford,A strong production quarter,exceptfor platinumRecovering production int
2、o a weaker demand outlookHad it not been for the boost in base and precious metals prices provided byQE3,the quarter would have been characterised by a strong productionrecovery and growth in many cases,driving down prices.Relative to Q410,copper,nickel,iron ore,thermal coal,gold and silver are reco
3、rd productionlevels for the companies under our coverage.Although not at record levels,zinc and coking coal are still at decent levels.Platinum and aluminium are the notable exceptions.In the chart below,we show the combined production by commodity of thecompanies that we have under coverage.We are
4、forecasting most commodities tobe at or close to record levels,with the exception of:Aluminium capacitycurtailments remain in force at Norsk Hydro and Rio,whilst BHPB is still recoveringfrom anode defects in its operations.PGMs the strike at Lonmin and thecurtailment of two of Aquariuss operations,n
5、amely Marikana and Everest shouldsee PGM production down slightly on Q2.However,the illegal strikes at AngloPlatinum will not have a significant impact on this quarter.We suspect howeverthat productivity across the industry was not particularly good,given the currentlabour environment in South Afric
6、a.Miner valuation/RiskWe value the miners using discounted cash flow analysis of the life of mine cashflows for each of the operations.Key risks include interest rate hikes for preciousmetals and a China consumption slowdown.Additional risks include deviations inexchange rates,commodity prices and p
7、roduction levels from expectations.Capexdeviations from plan for growth projects also impact our valuation.Figure 1:Cumulative production of companies under coverage,Research Analyst(+44)20 754-Grant SporreResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-Rio Tinto(RIO.L),GBP2,986.50Randgold(RRS.L),GBP7,775.00African Min
8、erals(AMIq.L),GBP312.75Companies FeaturedAnglo American(AAL.L),GBP1,812.50African Barrick(ABGL.L),GBP471.80African Minerals(AMIq.L),GBP312.75Antofagasta PLC(ANTO.L),GBP1,322.00Aquarius Platinum Limited(AQP.L),GBP47.50BHP Billiton Plc(BLT.L),GBP1,929.50Boliden AB(BOL.ST),SEK113.10ENRC PLC(ENRC.L),GBP
9、333.20Fresnillo(FRES.L),GBP1,966.00Ferrexpo Plc(FXPO.L),GBP207.00Kazakhmys PLC(KAZ.L),GBP738.00Lonmin Plc(LMI.L),GBP549.00Norsk Hydro(NHY.OL),NOK28.05Nyrstar NV(NYR.BR),EUR4.88,1201101009080706050,Rebased at 100 for 4Q10,Rio Tinto(RIO.L),GBP2,986.50Randgold(RRS.L),GBP7,775.00Vedanta Resources(VED.L)
10、,GBP1,101.00,BuyBuyBuy,Cu,Al,Ni,Zn,Iron ore,Coking Thermal,Gold,Silver,PGM,coal,coal,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11F,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12F,_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters
11、,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this repor
12、t.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12 production previewProduction results calendar for 3Q12Figure 2:Mining companies resu
13、lts calendar for 3Q12,Monday08-Oct-12,Tuesday09-Oct-12,Wednesday10-Oct-12,Thursday11-Oct-12,Friday12-Oct-12,VED-2Q12 prod,FXPO-3Q12 prod,15-Oct-12FRES-3Q12 prod,IMS22-Oct-12,16-Oct-12RIO-3Q12 prod23-Oct-12AQP-1Q13 report,17-Oct-12BHP-1Q13 prod24-Oct-12NYR-IMS,18-Oct-1225-Oct-12AAL-3Q12 prod,19-Oct-1
14、226-Oct-12ABG-3Q12 results,NHY-3Q12 results,Boliden-3Q12 reportKAZ-3Q12 prod,IMS,29-Oct-12,30-Oct-12,31-Oct-12,01-Nov-12,02-Nov-12,ANTO-3Q12 prod,05-Nov-12,06-Nov-12,07-Nov-12,08-Nov-12,09-Nov-12,VED-Interim resultsRRS-3Q12 results,ENRC-3Q12 prod,IMS,12-Nov-12,13-Nov-12,14-Nov-12,15-Nov-12,16-Nov-12
15、,LMI-4Q12 prodSource:Deutsche Bank,Company websitePage 2,ANTO-3Q12 results,Deutsche Bank AG/London,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12 production previewAggregate metal productionfor stocks under coverageFigure 3:Quarterly production numbers,Units,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11F,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12F,QoQ,YoY,Base m
16、etals,CopperAluminiumNickelZinc,KtKtKtKt,1302180076636,1196183466727,1253195074721,1184195170739,1332198279748,1241185075774,1325177786766,1376180886755,4%2%0%-1%,16%-7%23%2%,Bulks,Iron oreCoking coalThermal coal,MtMtMt,981867,881466,991766,1051971,1081871,951670,1071872,1091978,2%4%7%,4%-3%10%,Prec
17、ious metals,GoldSilverPGM,K OzK OzK Oz,977295701894,868253951507,1037296471558,1024271851705,962300671581,879285681191,963321731549,1053332161528,9%3%-1%,3%22%-10%,Source:Company reports,Deutsche Bank,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page 3,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12 production previewAfrican Barrick Go
18、ldLooking for a QoQ improvement,but Q4 will be the big oneFigure 4:Quarterly production numbers,Units,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12F,QoQ,YoY,BulyanhuluTulawakaBuzwagiNorth MaraAttributable productionAttributable sales,kozkozkozkozkozkoz,68.611.944.554.6179.6201.6,66.313.756.337.6173.9172.0
19、,69.315.141.646.0172.0185.1,62.114.160.745.5182.4183.6,64.416.037.941.7160.1158.8,61.811.236.335.4144.6145.4,69.87.434.541.5153.1157.2,66.610.345.156.3178.4178.4,-5%40%31%36%16%13%,7%-27%-26%24%-2%-3%,Source:Company reports,Deutsche Bank,Page 4,Deutsche Bank AG/London,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12
20、 production previewAfrican MineralsA rain impacted quarter before the steady ramp-upFigure 5:Quarterly Sales numbers,Units,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12F,4Q12F,QoQ,YoY,2011,2012F,Iron ore sales,LumpFinesAll In 32Total,MtMtMtMt,0.00.00.00.0,0.00.00.20.2,0.30.40.41.1,0.00.01.51.5,0.20.20.20.6,0.50.41.01.9,
21、-100%-100%257%33%,NANANANA,0.00.00.20.2,1.01.03.15.1,Source:Company data,Deutsche Bank,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page 5,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12 production previewAnglo AmericanExpecting a strong quarter with little impact from strikesso farFigure 6:Quarterly production numbers,Units,4Q10,1Q11,
22、2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12F,QoQ,YoY,Platinum Segment,PlatinumPalladiumRhodiumNickelEquiv refined platinumDiamonds(100%basis)Copper SegmentNickel Segment,kozkozkoztonskoz000 ctstonstons,8725031115,0006408,532154,4004,400,533288854,8005687,396138,8006,100,641374805,5005938,137150,3006,600,647376754
23、,9006679,305139,9006,500,710393975,1005836,489170,0009,900,403235544,7005936,208168,40012,000,623356755,4005847,241161,10010,900,653372795,6575827,001159,38111,937,5%5%5%5%0%-3%-1%10%,1%-1%5%15%-13%-25%14%84%,Iron Ore&Manganese,Iron OreManganese Alloys,KtKt,11,80877,9,94569,11,53476,12,18378,12,4277
24、8,11,67955,12,91730,13,07755,1%85%,7%-29%,Met Coal(Australia),MetallurgicalThermal,KtKt,3,8923,728,2,1653,002,3,9493,088,4,0153,978,4,0613,359,3,7432,570,4,8463,287,4,3823,150,-10%-4%,9%-21%,Thermal Coal,RSA MetallurgicalRSA Thermal export+,KtKt,1035,885,805,079,835,264,765,198,845,846,585,286,165,8
25、01,165,506,0%-5%,-79%6%,domestic,EskomColombia export,KtKt,9,4852,316,8,2752,609,8,7832,538,8,7512,852,9,4872,753,7,7632,953,8,3263,105,8,1122,953,-3%-5%,-7%4%,Source:Company data,Deutsche Bank,Page 6,Deutsche Bank AG/London,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12 production previewAntofagastaImproving prod
26、uction on the back of EsperanzaFigure 7:Quarterly production numbers and cash costs,Units,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12E,QoQ,YoY,Group Total,Total production of payable CopperTotal production of payable molyTotal production of payable goldCash cost-pre by-product creditsCash cost-post by-p
27、roduct credits,ktktkozc/lbc/lb,127.52.19.3157.7123.4,129.82.322.1155.8107.8,158.72.648.6159.4103.8,165.02.454.3155.1100.5,187.02.671.8151.397.3,162.93.163.5163.698.1,173.23.472.6158.299.3,181.62.778.4167.1103.6,5%-20%8%6%4%,10%13%44%8%3%,Los Pelambres,Payable copper in concentratePayable molyPayable
28、 goldCash costs-pre by-productsCash costs-post by-products,ktktkozc/lbc/lb,92.32.1145.398.0,91.22.37.2130.875.2,101.22.610.9130.775.2,104.92.48.8127.882.5,114.42.612.9123.579.5,95.93.111.9141.075.6,101.33.414.5133.578.0,100.42.711.3140.078.0,-1%-20%-22%5%0%,-4%13%28%10%-5%,Esperanza,Payable copperPa
29、yable goldCash costs-pre by-productsCash costs-post by-products,ktktc/lbc/lb,7.415.0302.4144.9,21.937.7260.1114.1,25.245.5241.372.4,35.658.9201.059.1,30.551.7206.161.7,37.758.1180.258.9,44.267.2200.079.4,17%16%11%35%,75%48%-17%10%,El Tesoro,Copper cathodes from El Tesoro,kt,18.2,15.1,18.0,20.0,22.8,
30、24.7,22.0,22.5,2%,12%,and Tesoro North-East open pits,Copper cathodes from ROMTotal copper cathodesCash costs,ktktc/lb,5.723.8192.8,5.220.3195.2,6.924.9173.0,4.524.5161.9,4.627.4161.4,3.528.2147.8,2.524.5167.4,3.7526.2156.8,50%7%-6%,-17%7%-3%,Michilla,Copper cathodesCash costs,ktc/lb,11.3184.3,11.01
31、92.2,10.7192.7,10.3205.6,9.6268.5,8.3323.2,9.7306.0,10.9310.0,12%1%,5%51%,Transport,Rail tonnage transportedRoad tonnage transported,ktkt,1619506,1524461,1651473,1618481,1627481,1490442,1538380,1788442,16%16%,11%-8%,Water,Water volume sold,000 m3,12392,12296,11689,11765,12545,12960,12695,12695,0%,8%
32、,Source:Company data,Deutsche Bank,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page 7,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12 production previewAquarius PlatinumProduction significantly down due to the shuttering of Marikanaand Everest.Kroondal performance is key.Figure 8:Quarterly production numbers,Unit,Dec-10,Mar-11,Jun-11,
33、Sep-11,Dec-11,Mar-11,Jun-11,Sep-12E,QoQ,YoY,Production by Mine,KroondalMarikanaEverestMimosaCTRPPlatinum mileTotal,kozkozkozkozkozkozkoz,119.432.825.147.01.54.1230,95.823.927.751.31.310.1217,89.221.427.055.60.74.7202,88.926.023.153.80.73.1196,86.828.818.750.51.13.3189,76.926.415.952.11.43.5176,82.22
34、1.515.354.61.72.8178,87.10.00.026.82.03.0119,6%-100%-100%-51%13%5%-33%,-2%-100%-100%-50%197%-4%-39%,Production by Mine Attributable,KroondalMarikanaEverestMimosaCTRPPlatinum mileTotal,kozkozkozkozkozkozkoz,59.716.425.123.50.72.1128,47.912.027.725.60.65.0122,44.610.727.027.80.32.3114,44.513.023.126.9
35、0.32.1110,43.414.418.725.20.63.3106,38.513.215.926.00.73.598,41.110.815.327.30.92.898,43.60.00.013.41.03.061,6%-100%-100%-51%13%5%-38%,-2%-100%-100%-50%197%43%-45%,Source:Company data,Deutsche Bank,Page 8,Deutsche Bank AG/London,t,t,t,t,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12 production previewBHP BillitonA
36、 steady quarter,with the switch from gas to liquids starting topay off.Figure 9:Quarterly production numbers,Units,Dec-10,Mar-11,Jun-11,Sep-11,Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12E,QoQ,YoY,Petroleum,Crude oil&condensateNatural gasNatural gas liquidTotal Petroleum,000 bblbcf000 bblmboe,20,65282.52,84237.25,19
37、,20084.92,44235.79,18,652131.82,63743.25,18,482177.43,35651.40,18,866214.53,36257.98,19,20084.92,44235.79,15,726221.33,75856.36,17,888215.93,72757.59,14%-2%-1%2%,-3%22%11%12%,Aluminium,AluminaAluminium,ktkt,1,025314,959305,1,026313,1,060315,1,001313,959305,1,039248,1,175251,13%1%,11%-20%,Base Metals
38、,CopperLeadZincGoldSilverUraniumMolybdenum,ktouncesK Oz,302.364,92536,94551,62611,571957485,273.651,91040,25249,5599,0561063334,272.358,57834,73345,5459,8771015418,220.255,65923,44439,4399,1511000595,280.366,99228,29844,00710,903909766,273.651,91040,25249,5599,0561063334,312.563,66730,74840,56911,53
39、91080464,287.864,81229,45850,41011,3451073987,-8%2%-4%24%-2%-1%113%,31%16%26%28%24%7%66%,Diamonds and SpecialtyProducts,Diamonds,000 carats,676,551,576,457,481,551,413,552,34%,21%,Stainless Steel Materials,Nickel,Kt,43.0,33.0,38.2,35.1,38.4,33.0,42.7,41.5,-3%,18%,Iron Ore,Iron Ore,Kt,33,666,33,231,3
40、5,526,39,572,41,072,33,231,40,891,42,140,3%,6%,Manganese,Manganese OreManganese Alloy,KtKt,1829192,1352172,1790190,2019194,1806195,1352172,206675,1950125,-6%67%,-3%-35%,Metallurgical Coal,Metallurgical Coal,Kt,7787,6670,7922,9291,8493,6670,8109,7350,-9%,-21%,Energy Coal,Energy Coal,Kt,16513,17543,18
41、338,18460,16919,17543,18484,18760,1%,2%,Source:Company data,Deutsche Bank,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page 9,t,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12 production previewBolidenA slightly weaker quarter due to routine refurbishmentsFigure 10:Quarterly production numbers and summary financials,Units,4Q10,1Q11,2Q1
42、1,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12F,QoQ,YoY,Metal Production,ZincCopperLeadGoldSilver,ktktktkgt,792113112169,73211385759,72201299354,742014100162,64201182856,74191389855,76201494562,69181393056,-9%-10%-5%-2%-9%,-7%-9%-6%-7%-9%,Refined Production,ZincCopperLeadLead AlloysGoldSilverSulphuric Acid,ktktktktkgkt
43、,117854133905113413,116825113375124406,111762122967123344,11890273337122436,114882123170120411,118855113869151433,116823114540149374,10486294026122348,-10%6%-42%-17%-11%-18%-7%,-12%-4%15%35%21%0%-20%,Financials,RevenuesMine EBITMarginSmelter EBITMarginTotal EBITNPATEPS,SEK mSEK m%SEK m%SEK mSEK mSEK
44、ps,101201,21743%1,02611%1,9421,4135.2,101581,15644%841%1,3599613.5,98961,06440%1562%1,1348042.9,105531,04741%1401%1,1808373.1,971664627%4104%1,0757872.9,1032182233%6316%1,4991,0894.0,1036472631%781%7695161.9,931075832%4064%11247572.8,-10%4%420%46%47%47%,-12%-28%190%-5%-10%-10%,Source:Company data,De
45、utsche Bank,Page 10,Deutsche Bank AG/London,t,t,8 October 2012Metals&Mining3Q12 production previewENRCExpecting a pick-up after an uncharacteristically weak Q2Figure 11:Quarterly production numbers,Units,4Q10,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12F,QoQ,YoY,Ferro-alloys Ore Production,Saleable Chrome ore
46、Internal consumptionSaleable Manganese,ktktkt,982807218,926786172,959800281,921762359,762715197,755732176,974734271,942793283,-3%8%4%,2%4%-21%,concentrate,Internal consumption,kt,90,99,104,104,77,100,101,102,1%,-2%,Ferro-alloys SaleableProduction,Ferrochrome-High-carbon-Medium-carbon-Low-carbonFerro
47、silicochromeSilico-manganeseFerro-siliconTotal Ferroalloys,ktktktktktktktkt,3252921221214212399,3232881323124613395,3252891224154512398,3172811422154711389,2942591322213610360,2952611321234612376,3002641224194712378,3182801424194813398,6%6%17%0%1%2%8%5%,0%-1%0%9%28%2%18%2%,Iron Ore Division,Ore Extr
48、action(RoM)Primary concentrate productionSaleable concentrate,ktktkt,10,8764,3892,013,10,7154,2871,675,10,6174,4972,004,11,3584,6292,550,10,5224,2242,230,10,2044,1782,021,9,8933,8901,803,10,1854,2781,778,3%10%-1%,-10%-8%-30%,production,Saleable pellet production,kt,2,132,2,228,2,098,1,677,1,644,1,89
49、1,1,796,2,250,25%,34%,Alumina&Aluminium Division,Alumina salesAluminium production,ktkt,29262,28562,28962,30763,30763,21062,25662,29566,15%6%,-4%4%,Other Non-ferrous division,Copper Ore extraction(RoM)Saleable copper containedCobalt ore extraction(RoM)Saleable cobalt contained,ktkt,3434,9922842,000,
50、3986,5722462,805,3667,3612452,666,4867,5962423,099,4208,0803252,853,4298,9883382,736,4188,5053412,615,4659,7403702,750,11%15%9%5%,-4%28%53%-11%,Energy Division,Coal extraction(RoM)Energy Division consumption of,ktkt,5,6972,358,5,8022,339,4,3631,912,4,2721,940,5,6732,408,5,8662,443,4,3921,972,4,5003,
