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1、Deutsche BankMarkets Research,Global Emerging MarketsLatin AmericaConsumerOctober 2012,PeriodicalLatam ConsumerMonthly,Date2 October 2012Jose YordanResearch Analyst(+1)212 250-,100%of our coverage rose in USD in September(and 89%outperformed)In September,100%of our coverage universe(all 27 stocks)ha
2、d a positiveperformance in USD terms(versus 58%in August),and 89%outperformedtheir respective market(versus 58%in August).Retail stocks outperformedother consumer sectors,rising 9.8%on average(led by BTOW3+44%andRADL3+11.1%).HPC companies also performed well as a group(up 9.3%onaverage)lead by a str
3、ong performance from KIMBERA(+13.9%)followed bybeverage and food stocks(up 7.7%and 6.5%on average respectively).Monthly Feature:updated Coke system maps(+comments on consolidation),Renata CoutinhoResearch Analyst(+55)11 2113-Rebeca Sanchez SarmientoResearch Associate(+1)212 250-,In this issue,we hav
4、e updated our Coca-Cola bottling system maps for LatinAmerica with 2011 volume information:based on Coca-Cola Company filingsfor the overall country totals and on annual reports of publicly-traded forindividual franchise territories(or estimated for privately-held bottlers).Thesemaps should give inv
5、estors an idea of the size of the M and although we do not predict any future deals we point outsome potential candidates.Grain prices remain high but have stabilized thanks to better supply visibilitySince the end of June wheat,corn and soybean rallied as much as 27.6%,23.6%and 17%respectively.But
6、with preliminary harvest figures starting tomaterialize,it appears that the market is growing more comfortable withavailability prompting a slight sell off towards the end of September.Sugarprices continue to trend downward,proving some relief to soft drinkproducers,but the outlook for total sweeten
7、er costs remains problematic.Outlook for Brazilian and Mexican consumer still in questionThe Brazilian consumer confidence index rose again in September(consistentwith a falling unemployment rate),and while recent retail sales figuresgenerally indicate a moderate recovery(partially driven by fiscal
8、incentives),the uptick in food inflation continues to put a question mark on the timing ofany consumer recovery.Considering that food inflation will likely remain on therise(given continued uncertainty over grains prices and the impact of higherbeverage excise taxes,which will be passed on to the co
9、nsumer),2012 mayturn out to be another difficult year for the Brazilian consumer.The Mexicanconsumer remains in relatively good shape,as evidenced by rising consumerconfidence and robust retail sales.But an uptick in unemployment,thedisappearance of pre-election spending by political parties and the
10、 recentdeterioration in remittances raise some yellow flags,in our view.Brazilian protein exports:Sept.data points to weak 3Q12 for poultry exportersSecexs September release indicates continued U.S.dollar pricing weaknessfor the Brazilian protein companies with beef,pork and poultry export pricesfal
11、ling by 12.1%,7.3%and 1.6%respectively on a YoY basis.Alternatively,export volumes in September were up(albeit to varying degrees)across allthree major protein categories.We calculate that in 3Q12,the overall Brazilianpork and beef export industry saw revenues increase while the poultry industryrema
12、ins under pressure thanks to tough volume and pricing comparables._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deuts
13、che Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a singl
14、e factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,2 October 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyTable Of ContentsDB Recent Related Research.5We reinstated coverage of Liverpool.5DB initiated coverage of MercadoLibre,Calbee,
15、DE Masters 1753 and Bloomin Brands;upgraded Heineken and Kohls to Buy.5Monthly Feature:updated Coke system maps.7Thoughts on LatAm Coca-Cola bottling consolidation trends.7DB LatAm Consumer Coverage Summaries.10Global Peer Valuation Tables.14Historical Valuation Multiples.20LatAm Food stocks.20LatAm
16、 Beverage stocks.22LatAm Household&Personal Care stocks.25LatAm Retail stocks.26Input Cost Tracker.30Beverage raw materials:sugar continues to provide relief,but corn syrup outlookremains problematic.30Better supply side visibility has stabilized grain prices.31Other inputs still declining.33Brazil
17、Protein Update.34September release indicates weak 3Q12 for poultry exporters.34Update on Brazilian,Mexican and Chilean Consumers.35Food inflation remains an ongoing problem in Brazil.35Mexican consumers remain in good shape,for now.37Outlook for the Chilean consumer remains generally positive.39,Pag
18、e 2,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,2 October 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyTable of ExhibitsFigure 1:Recent LatAm Consumer Research.5Figure 2:Other Related Global Research.5Figure 3:Mexico Coca-Cola bottling system map.7Figure 4:Brazil Coca-Cola bottling system map.8Figure 5:Latin American Coca-C
19、ola bottling system map.9Figure 6:Highlighted Stock ListDB-Covered LatAm Food and Beverage Companies 10Figure 7:Highlighted Stock ListDB-Covered LatAm Retail and HPC Companies.11Figure 8:DB-Covered LatAm Consumer Valuation Summary.12Figure 9:DB-Covered LatAm Consumer Share Price Performance Summary.
20、13Figure 10:GLOBAL COMMODITY FOODValuation(LatAm names in bold).14Figure 11:GLOBAL PACKAGED FOODValuation(LatAm names in bold).15Figure 12:GLOBAL BEVERAGESValuation(LatAm names in bold).16Figure 13:GLOBAL FOOD RETAILValuation(LatAm names in bold).17Figure 14:GLOBAL NON-FOOD RETAILValuation(LatAm nam
21、es in bold).18Figure 15:GLOBAL COSMETICS,HPCValuation(LatAm names in bold).19Figure 16:Brasil Foods 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.20Figure 17:Brasil Foods 12-Month Forward P/E.20Figure 18:Grupo Bimbo 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.20Figure 19:Grupo Bimbo 12-Month Forward P/E.20Figure 20:Gruma 12-Month Forw
22、ard EV/EBITDA.21Figure 21:Gruma:SOTP Analysis.21Figure 22:JBS SA 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.21Figure 23:JBS SA 12-Month Forward Price/BV.21Figure 24:Marfrig 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.21Figure 25:Marfrig 12-Month Forward Price/BV.21Figure 26:Minerva 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.22Figure 27:Minerva 12-
23、Month Forward Price/BV.22Figure 28:AmBev 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.22Figure 29:AmBev 12-Month Forward P/E.22Figure 30:Andina 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.22Figure 31:Andina 12-Month Forward P/E.22Figure 32:Arca Continental 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.23Figure 33:Arca Continental 12-Month Forward P/E.2
24、3Figure 34:CCU 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.23Figure 35:CCU 12-Month Forward P/E.23Figure 36:Coke Femsa 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.23Figure 37:Coke Femsa 12-Month Forward P/E.23Figure 38:Concha y Toro 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.24Figure 39:Concha y Toro 12-Month Forward P/E.24Figure 40:Femsa Stub 12-M
25、onth Forward EV/EBITDA.24Figure 41:Femsa SOTP Analysis.24Figure 42:Hypermarcas 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.25Figure 43:Hypermarcas 12-Month Forward Price/BV.25Figure 44:KCM 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.25Figure 45:KCM 12-Month Forward P/E.25Figure 46:Natura 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.25Figure 47 Natura
26、 12-Month Forward P/E.25Figure 48:B2W 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.26Figure 49:B2W 12-Month Forward PBV.26Figure 50:CBD 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.26Figure 51:CBD-Pao de Acucar 12-Month Forward P/E.26Figure 52:Cencosud 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.26Figure 53:Cencosud 12-Month Forward P/E.26Figure 54:Ci
27、a Hering 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.27Figure 55:Cia Hering 12-Month Forward P/E.27Figure 56:Liverpool 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.27Figure 57:Liverpool 12-Month Forward P/E.27Figure 58:Lojas Americanas 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.27Figure 59:Lojas Americanas 12-Month Forward P/E.27Figure 60:Lojas Renn
28、er 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.28,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 3,2 October 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyTable of Exhibits(Continued)Figure 61:Lojas Renner 12-Month Forward P/E.28Figure 62:Magazine Luiza 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.28Figure 63:Magazine Luiza 12-Month Forward P/E.28Figure 64:
29、Marisa Lojas 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.28Figure 65:Marisa Lojas 12-Month Forward P/E.28Figure 66:Raia Drogasil 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.29Figure 67:Raia Drogasil 12-Month Forward P/E.29Figure 68:Walmex 12-Month Forward EV/EBITDA.29Figure 69:Walmex 12-Month Forward P/E.29Figure 70:Sugar#11(US/lb).
30、30Figure 71:Mexican Sugar(US/lb).30Figure 72:LME Aluminium(US/lb).30Figure 73:PET Bottle Resin(US/lb).30Figure 74:US Wheat(USD/bushel).31Figure 75:US Corn(USD/bushel).31Figure 76:US Soybeans(USD/bushel).31Figure 77:US Soybean Meal(USD/ton).31Figure 78:Brazilian Live Cattle Prices(R$/).32Figure 79:Br
31、azil Corn(R$/60 Kg sack).32Figure 80:Brazil Soybeans(R$/60 Kg sack).32Figure 81:Brazil Soybean Meal(R$/ton).32Figure 82:NBSK Market Pulp(USD/Mt).33Figure 83:Cotton#2(USD/lb).33Figure 84:Brent Crude($/Bbl).33Figure 85:Brazilian Beef Exports.34Figure 86:Brazilian Poultry Exports.34Figure 87:Brazilian
32、Pork Prices.34Figure 88:BrazilRetail Sales by Category.35Figure 89:BrazilConsumer Confidence(YoY change).35Figure 90:BrazilUnemployment Rate.35Figure 91:BrazilInflation.35Figure 92:BrazilYoY%Change in Consumer Credit.36Figure 93:BrazilCredit Default Rates.36Figure 94:BrazilLoan Spreads.36Figure 95:B
33、razilPersonal Loans(Interest Rate vs Maturity).36Figure 96:MexicoSSS by Category.37Figure 97:MexicoConsumer Confidence(YoY change).37Figure 98:MexicoRemittances YoY%Ch.(in Pesos,using monthly average FX).37Figure 99:MexicoRemittances YoY%Change(in USD).37Figure 100:MexicoUnemployment Rate.37Figure 1
34、01:MexicoInflation.37Figure 102:MexicoYoY%Change in Consumer Credit.38Figure 103:Mexico%of Consumer NPLs.38Figure 104:ChileRetail Durable vs.Non-Durable Sales Growth Rate.39Figure 105:ChileConsumer Confidence(YoY change).39Figure 106:ChileUnemployment Rate.39Figure 107:ChileInflation.39Figure 108:Ch
35、ileYoY%Change in Consumer Credit.39Figure 109:ChileProvisions/Total Loans.39,Page 4,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,2 October 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyDB Recent Related ResearchWe reinstated coverage of LiverpoolFigure 1:Recent LatAm Consumer Research,Liverpool:Still dominating Mexican d-stor
36、e sector(reinstatingcoverage with Buy)Lojas Renner:Lower rates:not a simple estimateFemsa:Maintain Hold despite improved outlook for HeinekenMinerva:Maintaining Buy on margin upside and additional de-leveraging,Jose Yordan Sept 26,2012Jose Yordan Sept 26,2012Jose Yordan Sept 25,2012Rebeca Sarmiento
37、Sept 19,2012,Cia Hering:Conference takeaways-ST macro challenges remain,Renata Coutinho,Sept 9,2012,Source:Deutsche BankDB initiated coverage of MercadoLibre,Calbee,DE Masters 1753and Bloomin Brands;upgraded Heineken and Kohls to BuyFigure 2:Other Related Global Research,Tate&Lyle:Leaving a better a
38、ftertasteGlobal Economic Perspectives:QE3 to Boost Asset Values andGrowthGEM Strategy Quantitative Viewpoint:The liquidity wave versusthe contrarian-defensive focusThe House View:September 25,2012Heineken:Tiger featCoca Cola Icecek:Finalizing the acquisition of South IraqoperationsTesco PLC:UK tradi
39、ng encouraging,international and Bankpressuring forecastsMercadoLibre:Riding The Latam E-Commerce Wave,But WaterMay Get ChoppyKatzmans Kitchen:GMOOMGConAgra Foods:Strong Out Of The GateGlobal Economic Perspectives:Explaining Asian RestraintGlobal Tobacco Monthly:September 2012General Mills:Signs Of
40、RecoveryBloomin Brands:Initiate at Hold:Casual Dining with a Kick.ButFacing HeadwindsSupermarket Macro Update:Grocery Inflation Still Moderating No Drought Impact(Yet)The Wide Angle:What does the World Consume?Avon:Why 6.5%isnt the right operating marginMcDonalds:Nazdrovie!-Thoughts Post-Europe McTr
41、ipEM Monthly:Gearing UpFall Comeback of Retail Trader:Allocating Capital AcrossCoverage GroupSource:Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Harold Thompson Sept 27,2012Peter Hooper Sept 27,2012Mehmet Beceren Sept 26,2012DB Fixed Income Sept 25,2012Jonathan Fell Sept 23,2012Muharrem Sept 21,2012Gu
42、lseverJames-G Collins Sept 21,2012Ross Sandler Sept 20,2012Eric Katzman Sept 20,2012Eric Katzman Sept 20,2012Peter Hooper Sept 20,2012Andrew Kieley,Sept 20,2012Jonathan Fell,Masashi MoriEric Katzman Sept 19,2012Jason West Sept 18,2012Charles Grom Sept 17,2012Sanjeev Sanyal Sept 17,2012Bill Schmitz J
43、r Sept 17,2012Jason West Sept 16,2012Drausio Giacomelli Sept 13,2012Charles Grom Sept 12,2012,Page 5,2 October 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyFigure 2:Other Related Global Research(Continued),Global Economic Perspectives:International imbalances and theEurosystemEM Special Publication:Brazil Econ
44、omic UpdateKohls:Out of Purgatory=Upgrade To Buy,$62 PTCalbee:Initiating with Hold:Snack businesses highly evaluated,but priced inCoca-Cola:Global bottling-overhang vs.opportunityKraft Foods:Back To Basics,Peter Hooper Sept 12,2012Jose Faria Sept 12,2012Charles Grom Sept 12,2012Masashi Mori Sept 11,
45、2012Bill Schmitz Jr Sept 11,2012Eric Katzman Sept 10,2012,Commodities Special Report:A Deep Dive Into LivestockLiquidationGlobal Economic Perspectives:QE:Still potent but costlySnyders-Lance:Crisp and CleanHeinz:Earnings Power Still CompellingCampbell Soup Company:Condensing ExpectationsProcter&Gamb
46、le:State of the union mix matchedDE Master Blenders 1753:Arabicadabra?:Initiate with BuyCampari Group:Acquisition a nice(Magnum)tonic for thesharesSource:Deutsche BankPage 6,Christina McGlone-HahnPeter HooperRohini NairEric KatzmanEric KatzmanBill Schmitz JrJamie IsenwaterJamie Isenwater,Sept 7,2012
47、Sept 6,2012Sept 6,2012Sept 6,2012Sept 5,2012Sept 4,2012Sept 3,2012Sept 3,2012,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,2 October 2012ConsumerLatam Consumer MonthlyMonthly Feature:updatedCoke system mapsIn this issue,we have updated our Coca-Cola bottling system maps for Latin Americawith 2011 volume informatio
48、n:based on Coca-Cola Company filings for the overallcountry totals and on annual reports of publicly-traded for individual franchise territories(or estimated for privately-held bottlers).These maps should give investors an idea ofthe size of the M and although we do not predict anyfuture deals we po
49、int out some of the potential candidates.Thoughts on LatAm Coca-Cola bottling consolidation trendsGiven the three transactions(in quick succession)announced by Coca-Cola FEMSA in2011(and already incorporated into the map below under KOF),we had high hopes atthe outset of 2012.But so far,no additiona
50、l consolidation has happened in the MexicanCoke system.Figure 3:Mexico Coca-Cola bottling system mapNOGALES:,10 mm(E),ARCA CONTINENTAL:1,039 mm(PF),CORP.DEL FUERTE:100 mm(E)Total 2011 Volume:3,415 mm unit casesBEPENSA:190 mm(E)RICA:77 mm(E)TEPIC:10 mm(E)COLIMA:5 mm(E)YOLI:89 mm(E)KOF:1,895 mm(PF)Sou
