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1、Determining Optimal Level of Product Availability,Optimal Matching of Supply and Demand(III),【本著作除另有註明外，採取創用CC姓名標示非商業性相同方式分享台灣3.0版授權釋出】,第八單元(2)：Determining Optimal Level of Product Availability,1,蔣明晃教授,Supply Chain Decision-Making Framework,Inventory,Transportation,Facilities,Information,Supply chai
2、n structure,Supply chain strategy,Competitive strategy,2,Levers for Increasing Supply Chain Profitability,Decreasing the costs of overstocking and understockingReducing the demand uncertainty,Improved forecasting to lower uncertaintyQuick response:reduce lead time to increase number of orders per se
3、asonPostponement of product differentiationTailored sourcing,Microsoft。,3,BENETTON,Benetton,Benetton,4,BENETTON,Benetton將毛衣的製造程序重新設計，將原本先染色再編織的程序，改成先將毛線編織成毛衣，等透過市場調查掌握市場流行顏色後，才開始進行染色程序。如此，Benetton公司可以避免大量顏色落伍的存貨，每年因而節省數百萬美元的成本。,Benetton,Benetton,Microsoft。,5,BENETTON,72hr,12day,Microsoft。,6,ZARA,Mic
4、rosoft。,Microsoft。,7,Whats Quick Response?,A widely used strategy,By general merchandise,soft-lines retailers and manufacturersTo reduce retail out-of-stocks,forced markdown,merchandising system and operating costs,Suppliers and retailers work together to respond more rapidly to consumer needsBy sha
5、ring POS information to jointly forecast future demand for replenishable items,and to continuously monitor trends to detect opportunities for new items,Spread through the supply chain and seamlessly linked at each stage by electronic data interchange,A partnership strategy,A JIT strategy,8,Basic Ele
6、ments of QR,Time horizons,Information,Supplier/Manufacturerrelationships,Philosophical/Cultural change,Logistics,ManufacturingOperations,9,Example:US Textile and Apparel Industry in 1986,Fiber,Fabric,Apparel,Consumer,Retail,Synthetics(75%)highly concentratedTen firms provide more than 90%of market,M
7、ore fragmented6,000 firms12 firms provide 1/4 of market,Extremely fragmented15,000 firms(70%employ fewer than 50 people),Increasing concentrationMajor categories:Department storesMass merchandisersMail orderChainsSpecialty stores,Increasing sophisticationExpectation of variety/changeWide choice of r
8、etail outlets,10,The Inefficiencies,Long supply chainFrom raw material to consumer purchase was 66 weeks11weeks in-plant time40 weeks in warehouse or transit15 weeks in storeProblems of long supply chainExpensive to financeToo much or too little product was produced and distributed1985-1986 overall
9、loss-$25 billion,11,The Response,Awaken the industryFocus on the entire supply chain rather than separate functions within itTargeting the common goalsServe the consumer with the right products at the right time,and the right priceThe total supply chain would achieve major gains in both efficiency a
10、nd effectiveness,12,Expected Results through QR,Fig.6-15,QR system,Weeks,Fiber,Fabric,Apparel,and Retail Inventories(Working Weeks),Average Cost per Unit,66,46,21,13,Example:Benetton,Benetton deliver knitted goods in the hottest new colors seemingly overnight.It knitted the sweaters in neutral yarn
11、and then dyed them to meet market demand.Putting in place fast and sophisticated retailer reporting systems.Key technologiesBar code systemsComputer networksAutomated distribution centerEDI or Internet-based ECCIM,14,ECR is a Global Industry Strategy in which Retailers and Suppliers Work Together to
12、 Deliver Better Consumer Satisfaction and Value.,ECR(Efficient Consumer Response),15,A strategy in which distributors and suppliers are working closely together to maximize grocery consumer satisfaction and minimize cost.,Timely,accurate,paperless information flow,Smooth,continual product flow match
13、ed to consumption,Supplier,Distributor,Retail store,Consumerhousehold,What is Efficient Consumer Response?,16,Anatomy of Efficient Consumer Response,A consumer purchases“Product A”from a supermarket.The transaction is recorded by the stores scanner.,The scanner forwards the transaction record to an
14、in-store computer.The Product A manufacturer,whose computers interface with the retailers,notes the transaction and automatically reorders a replacement unit on a just-in-time basis.,An automatic ordering system allows the product A supplier to match production to demand using product movement infor
15、mation and forecasting.,Because production is tied directly into demand,retailers become increasingly freed from the need for excess inventory and warehousing of excess inventory,thus opening the door for increased cross-docking and direct store delivery shipments.,The retailers in-store computer ac
16、knowledges receipt of the shipment and automatically issues a computer-generated payment or electronic fund transfer payment,eliminating the need for paper invoices and streamlining the accounting process.,17,Efficient Consumer Response Process,Manufacturingbusinessstrategy,Replenishment,Promotion,P
17、roduct introductions,Store assortments,Retailbusinessstrategy,Replenishment,Promotion,Product introductions,Store assortments,Open communication,Change management,Integrated EDIContinuous replenishmentComputer-assisted orderingFlow-through distributionActivity-based costingCategory managementFlexibl
18、e manufacturing,18,ECR Strategies&Objectives,19,ECR Components,Logistics(Supply Side)Continuous ReplenishmentCross DockingCategory Management(Demand Side)Understanding Consumer NeedsDecisions Made with DataCategory vs.Brand FocusedTotal Systems ApproachEnabling Technologies(Tools)Electronic Fund Tra
19、nsfer(EFT)Electronic Data Interchange(EDI)Activity Based Costing(ABC)Item Coding&Database Maintenance,20,Supplier warehouse38 days,Distribution warehouse(Forward buy 9 days,turn inventory 31 days)40 days,Retail store26 days,Supplier warehouse27 days,Distributorwarehouse12 days,Retail store22 days,10
20、4 days,ECR DRY GROCERY CHAIN,CURRENT DRY GROCERY CHAIN,61 days,Packing line,ConsumerPurchase,Packing line,ConsumerPurchase,Example:Throughput Time Improvement of Dry Grocery,21,ECR Requirements,Think Total Supply ChainMulti-Function,Multi-Echelon CooperationConvert Efficiencies to Customer ValueDriv
21、e True Efficiency and Recognize InefficiencyEmphasize on ConsumerWork Together to Create DemandChange Business ProcessesIdentify Whats Wrong TodayTrustTo be PartnersShare Data,22,Stores,P&GPlant,P&GHeadquarters,CustomerHeadquarters,CustomerDistributionCenters,StoreDelivery,Orders,Direct store level
22、shipment,Demand and Inventory,Ordering info,Orders,Example:P&Gs CRP Process,Dedicated Carriers andPrescheduledAppointments,Demand andInventory,Shipping info.,Ordering info,C網站,C網站,C網站,C網站,臺灣大學 郭瑞祥老師,23,Barriers,Lack of TrustLack of Fairness-Open TradingNo Information SharingLack of Resource Commitme
23、ntLack of Industry StandardsCulture(Negotiation Environment)Measurement/Rewards,24,Quick Response:Multiple Orders per Season,Ordering shawls at a department storeSelling season=14 weeksOriginal replenishment lead time=15 weeksReduced replenishment lead time=6 weeksCost per handbag=$40Sale price=$150
24、Disposal price=$30Holding cost=$2 per weekExpected weekly demand=20SD of weekly demand=15,25,Quick Response:Multiple Orders per Season,Two ordering policies:A single order must arrive at the beginning of the season to cover the entire seasons demandTwo orders are placed in the season,one arriving at
25、 the beginning of the season and the other arriving at the beginning of the eighth weekTwo situations:The buyers forecast accuracy doesnt improve for second orderThe buyers forecast accuracy does improve for second order,26,Impact of Quick Response:Forecast doesnt improve for second order(SD=15),20
26、7+1.75 15,209 2-69,20 14+1.75 15,27,Observations,Its possible to provide the same level of product availability to the customer with less inventory if a second follow-up order is allowed The average overstock to be disposed of at the end of the sales season is less if two orders are allowedThe profi
27、ts are higher if second order is allowed,28,Leftover Inventory vs.Number of Order Cycles per Season,Unsold Inventory at End of Season,Number of Order Cycles per Season,29,Expected Profit vs.Number of Order Cycles per Season,Expected Profit,Number of Order Cycles per Season,30,Forecast Improves for S
28、econd Order(SD=3 instead of 15),20 7+1.75 3,31,Notes,Quick response is clearly advantageous to a retailer.But as the retailer order size drops,the manufacturer sells less to the retailer.Thus,the manufacturer make a lower profit in the short term if all else is unchanged.It seems to benefit retailer
29、 at the expense of the manufacturer.,32,Meaning of Postponement,Delay the timing of the crucial processes in which end products assume their specific functionality,features,identities,or personalityCan be viewed as information strategy3 different kinds of postponement:pull,logistics,form,33,Pull Pos
30、tponement,BTS vs BTODecoupling point:the point from which the process switches from a build-to-stock mode to the build-to-order mode.Meaning of pull postponement:Making the decoupling point earlier in the process.,34,Pull Postponement,Basic Elements:The process steps must be sequenced so that the le
31、ss differentiating steps are performed at prior to the decoupling point.After the decoupling point,the process steps can be performed flexible and fast.Accurate order capture for BTO.Example:National Bicycle,Benetton.,35,延遲差異化(Postponement Differentiation)之意義此種延遲主要是運用在最終產品的需求未確定時,先生產一些通用或產品族共通的部分,等到
32、特定的產品需求確定後再進行生產或製造,以減少不確定性,延遲差異化,36,延遲差異化的做法,作業程序的重排序(Resequencing)例子:Benetton,postpone dyeing until after assembled.Cost:10%more expensive,new machine purchased and employee retrained.例子:US disk drive manufacturing.Insert generic circuit board into assembly,complete much of the testing,remove the g
33、eneric circuit board,and add customer-specific boards later.,37,延遲差異化的做法,產品的共通性(Commonality)利用產品線或產品族的重新設計來達成例子:Printer manufacturing,redesign the new and old products to share a common circuit board and printhead such that final process can be delayed.,38,延遲差異化的做法,模組化(Modularity)：模組化產品設計：將功能採模組化，使各
34、個模組能夠簡易且以較低成本的添加到產品上。例子：HP Laser Jet模組化製程設計：製程應設計盡量獨立的生產模組，容易因應不同的要求進行彈性的調整。例子：print-and-pigment mixture,Levis jeans,39,延遲差異化的做法,標準化(Standardization):建立數種顧客所需的標準化產品之選擇.機動敏捷的供應網路(Agile Supply Networks)某些網路節點存放基本的產品,並在收到顧客訂單時進行客製化的最後作業.,40,延遲差異化施行的考量,重新排序或延遲時所需資本投入之考量。重新排序或延遲時所需技術與能力之考量。延遲的結果可能使存貨成本提高
35、。在國際運籌作業中，各進出口國對原物料，零組件或在製品的關稅考量。,41,Logistics Postponement,Meaning:Redesign the tasks in the SC so that some of the customization steps can be performed downstream closer to the customers.,42,Concurrent and Parallel Processing,Concurrent and parallel processing involves modifying the manufacturing
36、process so that steps that were previously performed in a sequence can be completed at the same time.reduce lead timereduce inventory costA key is the concept of modularity or decoupling,43,can not lead to quality degradation.downstream sites have capability to perform the task without excessive cos
37、t and time.potentially to procure the necessary components or modules for the customization.the engineering team is able and willing to design products and processes to defer the steps effectively.,Requirements for logistics postponement,44,Form Postponement,Meaning:postponement is achieved through
38、the change in the form of the product structure by standardizing some of the process steps or components.Example:HP Laser Printer.,45,Products or processes should be modular in structure.Design engineer should be aware of the importance of SCM to pursuit design for postponement opportunity.Must invo
39、lve multiple functions or organization in collaboration.Quantify the costs and benefits to determine the best point for postponement,Postponement Enablers,46,The Value of Postponement,Improve matching of supply and demand:need to qualify the benefit with additional costIncrease profitability:differe
40、ntiate after receiving customer order so that inventories can be reducedValuable for selling a large variety of products with demand that is independent and comparable in size,47,Value of Postponement:Benetton,For each colorMean demand=1,000;SD=500For each garmentSale price=$50Salvage value=$10Produ
41、ction cost using option 1(thread are dyed and the garment was knitted)with long lead time=$20Production cost using option 2(dying was postponed until after the garment was knitted)=$22What is the value of postponement?,48,Value of Postponement:Benetton,Option 1:CSL*=(p-c)/(p-s)=30/40=0.75O*=NORMINV(
42、0.75,1000,500)=1,337 units of each colorExpected profits from each color=$23,644Expected overstock for each color=412Expected understock for each color=75 5348 sweaters are produced,expected profit of$94,576 with an average of 1,648 sweaters sold on clearance and 300 customers turns away for lack of
43、 sweaters,49,Value of Postponement:Benetton,Option 2:c=$22 instead of$20CSL*=(p-c)/(p-s)=28/40=0.70O*A=NORMINV(0.70,10004,500)=4,524 unitsExpected profits=$98,092Expected overstock for each color=715Expected understock for each color=190Expected profit increases from$94,576 to$98,092Expected oversto
44、ck declines from 1,648 to 715Expected understock declines from 300 to 190,50,Value of Postponement with Dominant Product,Color with dominant demand(red):Mean=3,100,SD=800Other three colors:Mean=300,SD=200Option 1:CSL*=0.75Optimal production of red sweaters O*=NORMINV(0.75,3100,800)=3,640;expected pr
45、ofit=$82,831,expected overstock=659,expected understock=119Optimal production of each other color sweater=435;expected profit=$6,458,expected overstock=165,expected understock=30Total production=4,945,expected profit=$102,205,expected overstock=1,154,expected understock=209,51,Value of Postponement
46、with Dominant Product,Option 2:A=3100+3300=4,000;A=Total production=4,457;expected profit=$99,872,expected overstock=623,expected understock=166Expected profit without postponement=$102,205Expected profit with postponement=$99,872,52,Meaning of Pure Postponement,Postponement may reduce overall profi
47、t for a firm if a single product contributes the majority of the demand,since the increased manufacturing expense due to postponement outweighs the small benefit from aggregation,53,Tailored Postponement:Benetton,On the portion of the certain demand,postponement provides little value,thus,company ne
48、eds to use lower cost method.On the portion of the uncertain demand,postponement significantly improves forecast accuracy,thus,company is willing to incur higher cost to achieve the benefit.Produce Q1 units for each color using Option 1 and QA units(aggregate)using Option 2,54,Tailored Postponement:
49、Benetton,55,The Benefit of Tailored Postponement,Tailored postponement allows a firm to increase its profitability by postponing only the uncertain part of the demand and producing the predictable part at a lower cost without postponement,56,The Meaning of Tailored Sourcing,A combination of two supp
50、ly sources:one focusing on cost but unable to handle uncertainty well,and the other focusing on flexibility to handle uncertainty but a higher costA backup policyDisadvantage:increasing complexity of implementation,57,Tailored Sourcing,Sourcing alternativesLow cost,long lead time supplierCost=$245,L
