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1、Importance of the Montreal Protocol for ozone layer and climate,Guus Velders,The Netherlands,WMO/UNEP Ozone Research ManagersGeneva,May 19,2008,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,2,Well known benefits Montreal Protocol,Large decreases in CFC production(90%)and emissions(60-90%)Concentrations
2、 also decreasingIncreases for HCFCs and HFCs,WMO(2007),Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,3,Well known benefits Montreal Protocol(2),Emerging evidence of start of ozone layer recoveryFull recovery around 2050Polar regions 10-25 years laterRecovery can be affected by:Future production CFCs,HC
3、FCsProduction methyl bromideEmissions from existing equipmentInteraction with climate change,WMO(2007),Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,4,Montreal Protocol provided dual protection:to Ozone layer and to Climate change,Climate benefits already achieved larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for
4、 2008-2012Potential for additional climate benefits significant compared to KyotoReason:CFCs,HCFCs are greenhouse gases Large GWPs:-CO2:1-CFCs:4,000 11,000-HCFCs:700 2,300,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,5,Decrease in production of CFCs,1974:Molina and Rowland:CFCs affect the ozone layer-
5、Public concern drop production1980:Increase in production:-New applications-Growth in Asia and Europe1987:Montreal Protocol:-Restricting prod/use CFCs,halons2010:Global production stop CFC,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,6,Production scenarios,Baseline:current Montreal Protocol in agreeme
6、nt with observations used in WMO(2007),Without 1974 paper Molina and Rowland:3-7%annual growth,Without 1987 Montreal Protocol:2-3%annual growth,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,7,Concentration scenarios,Delays compared to prod/emis.due to long lifetimesExponential growth without early warn
7、ing in 1974Continued growth without Montreal Protocol,Velders et al.,PNAS,2007,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,8,Effect on ozone layer,Mid-latitude:EESC back to 1980-levels around 2050Polar region:EESC back to 1980-levels around 2065:Older age of air in polar vortexLarge ozone depletion w
8、ithout Montreal Protocol and amendments,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,9,Ozone layer recovery,Largest potential reductions:Destruction of banks of CFCsDestruction of banks of halonsLimiting future production of HCFCsInteraction with climate change:Cooling upper stratosphere ozone increas
9、eCooling lower stratosphere more activation on PSC ozone destructionCirculation changes Overall effect uncertain,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,10,Effects on climate,World avoided by the Montreal Protocol,Reduction Montreal Protocol of 11 GtCO2-eq/yr5-6 times Kyoto target(incl.offsets:HF
10、Cs,ozone depl.),CO2 emissions,Velders et al.,PNAS,2007,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,11,Radiative forcing leading to climate change,Reduction in radiative forcing of 0.23 Wm-2 in 2010about 13%of CO2 emissions of human activities,Velders et al.,PNAS,2007,Forcing:delay of 10 years cf CO2
11、emissions,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,12,Ozone-depleting substances not in Kyoto,Total target Kyoto:about 2 GtCO2-eq/yrCFCs not included in Kyoto ProtocolAlready covered and soon to be phased outBenefits for polluting countriesSeparate protocolsNegative offset potentially largeWith Mo
12、ntreal Protocol,CFCs likely included in Kyoto Protocol,but:Effects at least 10 years laterStarting at much higher baselineHarder to eliminate,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,13,Offsetting the climate benefits,About 80%of ozone depleting-substances replaced by non-fluorocarbonsSubstitute g
13、ases for CFCsHFCs and HCFCsHFC emissions:0.9 GtCO2-eq/yr by 2010(IPCC)Negative radiative forcing of ozone depletionIPCC estimate of-0.05+/-0.05 W/m2 for 1979-2005Total offsets about 30%of direct forcing,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,14,Montreal 2007 adjustment:HCFC phase-out,September 2
14、1,2007 in Montreal:Adjustment of Montreal Protocol:accelerated HCFC phase-outClimate effects taken into accountDeveloped countries:Phase-out from 2030 2020(+intermediate reductions targets)Developing countries:Freeze in 2012Phase-out from 2040 2030(+intermediate reductions targets)Base level from 20
15、15 average 2009-2010,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,15,Montreal 2007 adjustment:HCFC phase-out,Recovery ozone layer 3 years earlierReduction in emissions:7-9 Mtonnes HCFCs0.35-0.45 MtCFC-11-eq12-15 GtCO2-eq 100 million cars per yearEffects depend on alternatives being used,Guus Velders,M
16、ontreal Protocol and Climate,16,Possible additional benefits,Better containment in refrigerationDestruction of ODS banksAlternatives with lower GWPsPotential reductions:(by 2015 in GtCO2-eq/yr)CFCs:0.12HCFCs:partly doneHFC-23:0.30(by-product)HFCs:0.44(alternative.chemicals),Guus Velders,Montreal Pro
17、tocol and Climate,17,Conclusions,Montreal Protocol provided dual protection:to Ozone layer and to Climate changeAlready achieved climate benefits 5-6 times larger than Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012Montreal Protocol:delay in CO2-forcing of 10 yearsMontreal 2007 adjustment:Emissions reduced by
18、12-15 GtCO2-eq(depends on replacements)Ozone layer recovery 3 years earlier,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,18,Conclusions(2),Potential for additional climate benefits significant compared to Kyoto Protocol targets(2008-2012):Better containment in refrigerationDestruction of CFCs,HCFC in exiting refrigerators,foamsAlternatives with lower GWPs,Guus Velders,Montreal Protocol and Climate,19,Thank you foryour attention,Study in close collaboration with:Stephen Andersen(EPA)John Daniel(NOAA)David Fahey(NOAA)Mack McFarland(DuPont),
