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1、CompanyReport,Tingyi康师傅(00322HK),GTJAResearch国泰君安研究,5082,10.0,5.0,0.0,(10.0),(15.0),(20.0),(25.0),(30.0),19.4,19.3,21.2,康师傅于,我们维持公司之投资评级为“,33.7,21.5,1.7,Company Report:Tingyi(00322 HK)公司报告：康师傅(00322 HK),Sunny Kwok 郭日升+852 2509 2642,.hk21 August 2012Strong Margin Recovery but Fairly Valued,Maintain“N
2、eutral”利润率大幅改善，估值合理，维持“中性”,Tingyis 2Q12 results were positively perceived by investors as theCompanys gross margin rebounded strongly YoY and fast core net profitgrowth was partially offset by high effective tax rate,which is not expected tobe sustainable.Revenue grew by 9.5%YoY in 1H12,to US$4.5 bi
3、llion on newcontribution from Pepsi.Excluding such contribution,comparable salesgrowth was flat in 1H12.Instant noodle business earnings growth totally offseta fall in beverage business earnings.Core net profit arrived at US$189 millionin 1H12,down 0.5%YoY.In 2Q12,core net profit increased by 28.8%Y
4、oY,to US$86 million on a 35.7%effective tax rate.Instant noodle sales growth is in line with management expectation.Beveragebusiness sales growth remained weak and we do not expect 15%salesgrowth to be achieved in 2012.Raw materials prices stay low and continue tobenefit gross margin improvement.Com
5、petition is still fierce and we do notexpect the Company to cut its operating expenses.Effective tax rate couldresume to normal level in 2H12 and prompts extra earnings growth.Pepsiresults are expected to beat previous management guidance with narrowedloss.To conclude,we expect Tingyis core EPS to g
6、row by 21.6%,31.0%and 22.0%,to US$0.083,US$0.108 and US$0.132 in 2012-2014,respectively.,Rating:评级：6-18m TP 目标价:Revised from 原目标价:Share price 股价：Stock performance股价表现15.0%of return(5.0),NeutralMaintained中性(维持)HK$22.00HK$20.00HK$20.850,Despite strong earnings growth expectation in 2H12,weak beverages
7、 salesand possible raw materials prices rebound are our concern.Valuation is fairand we maintain our investment rating at“NEUTRAL”,TP is raised toHK$22.0 on roll-over.The new TP represents 34.2x 2012 core PER,26.1x2013 core PER and 21.4x 2014 core PER.(35.0),康师傅 12 年次季业绩令市场满意，毛利率大幅改善，核心纯利高速增长但被高有效税率
8、所,Aug-11,Nov-11HSI,Feb-12,May-12TINGYI,Aug-12,部分抵消，但高税率将不会持续。于 12 年上半年，由于百事业绩开始入帐，收入同比增长9.5%，至 45 亿美元。扣除百事的贡献，可比销售额仅按年持平。方便面分部盈利增长完全抵消饮料分部纯利下跌。核心纯利于 12 年上半年为 1.9 亿美元，同比轻微下跌 0.5%。,于 12 年次季，虽然有效税率高达 35.7%，核心纯利仍然按年上升 28.8%，至 8,600 万美元。方便面销售增长与管理层预期大致相符。饮料销售疲弱而我们并不预期 2012 年全年销售增长能够达到 15%。原材料价格于低位徘徊利好毛利率
9、持续改善。由于国内市场竞争激烈，,Change in Share Price股价变动Abs.%绝对变动%Rel.%to HS index相对恒指变动%,1M1 个月6.44.0,3M3 个月4.8(1.3),1Y1 年(17.4)(21.1),我们并不预期公司减少营运开支。有效税率预期将于 12 年下半年回到正常水平并额外推动纯利增长。百事业绩预期将优于管理层早前的预期，亏损将进一步收窄。综合而言，我们预期康师傅于 2012-2014 年每股核心核心净利分别为 0.083、0.108 及 0.132 美元，同比分别增长 21.6%、31.0%及 22.0%。虽然预期康师傅于 12 年下半年盈利
10、增长强劲，但饮料销售疲弱及原材料价格可能反弹为我们的担忧。估值合理，我们维持公司之投资评级为“中性”，目标价调升至 22.0 港元。新目标价相当于公司 12 年、13 年及 14 年核心市盈率分别为 34.2、26.1 及 21.4 倍。,Avg.share price(HK$)平均股价（港元）Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan Int ernat ional.,Year End年结12/31FY10AFY11AFY12FFY13FFY14F,Turnover收入(US$m)6,6817,867,Net Profit股东净利(US$m)477420,EPS每股净利(US
11、$)0.0850.0750.0990.1080.132,EPS每股净利变动(%)24.4(12.0)31.89.522.0,PER市盈率(x)31.435.727.124.720.3,BPS每股净资产(US$)0.3260.3760.4820.5410.619,PBR市净率(x)8.27.15.65.04.3,DPS每股股息(US$)0.0430.0380.0490.0540.066,Yield股息率(%)1.61.41.82.02.5,ROE净资产收益率(%)29.021.423.121.222.8,Shares in issue(m)Market cap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m)3 m
12、onth average vol.3 个月平均成交股数(000)52 Weeks high/low(HK$)52 周高/低,5,592.2116,596.96,171.725.011/17.724,Major shareholder 大股东Free float(%)自由流通比率(%)FY12 Net gearing(%)12 年净负债/股东资金(%)FY11-14 PEG(x)市盈率/增长率(倍),Ting Hsin 33.2%,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.,See the last page for disclaimer,Pag
13、e 1 of 10,Tingyi康师傅(00322HK),CompanyReport,21August2012,5082,2Q12 Quarterly and 1H12 Interim Results Review:Improved Sales Performance;Strong Gross Margin Rebound;High Tax Rate.Driven by instant noodle business salesgrowth and the inclusion of Pepsi results since 2Q12,turnover grew by 23.8%YoY in 2Q
14、12,to US$2.6 billion.Falls in rawmaterials prices prompted gross margin recovery but results were partially offset by high tax rate.Core net profit was US$86million in 2Q12,up 28.8%YoY.Excluding Pepsis results,Master Kongs turnover rose by 4.7%YoY,to US$2.2 billion in 2Q12.Table-1:Quarterly and Inte
15、rim Results ReviewIncome Statement,US$millionTurnover&revenueCost of salesGross ProfitOther net incomeDistribution costsAdministrative exp.Other exp.Operating ProfitFinance income,netProfit before taxTaxationProfit after taxMinority interestsReported Net ProfitCore Net Profit*Gross MarginOperating M
16、arginReported Net MarginCore Net Margin,1H114,140(3,057)1,08295(666)(95)(18)399(5)393(86)307(78)22919026.1%9.6%5.5%4.6%,1H124,533(3,182)1,352254(862)(145)(44)555(13)546(125)421(136)28418929.8%12.2%6.3%4.2%,YoY9.5%4.1%24.9%167.6%29.5%51.8%148.9%39.2%156.8%38.9%46.0%36.9%73.9%24.2%-0.5%+3.7 ppts+2.6 p
17、pts+0.7 ppts-0.4 ppts,1Q112,034(1,491)54325(281)(47)(10)230(3)227(60)167(44)12312326.7%11.3%6.0%6.0%,1Q121,927(1,366)561211(329)(56)(19)368(6)362(60)303(104)19810329.1%19.1%10.3%5.3%,YoY-5.2%-8.4%3.4%748.6%17.4%18.4%90.7%60.1%106.2%59.5%0.1%80.7%134.5%61.2%-16.4%+2.4 ppts+7.8 ppts+4.2 ppts-0.7 ppts,
18、2Q112,106(1,566)54070(385)(48)(8)169(2)166(26)140(34)1066725.6%8.0%5.0%3.2%,2Q122,606(1,815)79143(532)(89)(25)187(8)184(66)118(32)868630.3%7.2%3.3%3.3%,YoY23.8%15.9%46.5%-38.7%38.3%84.3%224.0%10.7%213.5%10.6%149.4%-15.5%-5.4%-18.8%28.8%+4.7 ppts-0.8 ppts-1.7 ppts+0.1 ppts,Source:the Company,Guotai J
19、unan International.*Exclude bargain purchase gain of US$190.6 million(100%equity interests).Instant Noodle:Improved Product Mix in 2Q12.Tingyis instant noodle product mix was weak in 1Q12 that sales growth ofmid-low end packet noodle surpassed bowl and high end packet noodle.Such situation reversed
20、in 2Q12 that sales growth ofbowl and high end packet noodles surpassed mid end packet noodle.The shift in product mix helped gross margin to improvebut was partially offset by palm oil rebound in 2Q12.Table-2:Instant Noodle Business Revenue Breakdown By ProductInstant Noodle Business Revenue Breakdo
21、wn,US$million,1H11,1H12,YoY,1Q11,1Q12,YoY,2Q11,2Q12,YoY,Segment Revenue,BowlHigh end PacketMid-Low end PacketOthersTotal,77063120891,618,866749242171,873,12.5%18.8%16.1%77.9%15.8%,4553581106929,48840513071,030,7.4%12.9%18.0%21.3%10.9%,315272993689,3783441129844,19.9%26.4%14.0%183.6%22.4%,Source:the
22、Company,Guotai Junan International.Beverage:Traditional Drink New Growth Driver.Tea sales remained weak in 2Q12 but negative growth was narrowed ascompared to 1Q12.Juice sales was the most promising product among alternatives,thanks to the introduction of traditionaldrinks.Excluding Tropicana contri
23、bution,organic growth of Master Kongs juice sales is expected to exceed 65%in 2Q12.Onthe other hand,carbonated drink sales amounted to US$355 million in 2Q12.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 2 of 10,21August2012,CompanyReport,Tingyi康师傅(00322HK),5082,Table-3:Beverage Business Revenue Breakdown
24、By ProductBeverage Business Revenue Breakdown,US$million,1H11,1H12,YoY,1Q11,1Q12,YoY,2Q11,2Q12,YoY,Segment Revenue,TeaWaterJuiceCarbonatedTotal,1,60041338002,392,1,0624426463552,504,-33.6%7.0%70.0%n.a.4.7%,7999514801,042,4771302110817,-40.4%37.4%42.2%n.a.-21.6%,80031923201,350,5853124353551,687,-26.
25、9%-2.0%87.8%n.a.24.9%,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Improved Results on Gross Margin Recovery.Pepsi sales amounted to US$402 million in 2Q12,down 3.7%QoQ.Due tolow raw materials prices as well as enhanced production efficiencies,gross margin in 2Q12 continued to improve and enablesTi
26、ngyi to spend more on advertising and promotion to regain market share.Core net profit of instant noodle business soaredby 86.9%in 2Q12,while negative growth of core net profit of beverage business in 2Q12 was reduced significantly comparedto 1Q12.In addition,Tingyi incurred some one-off expenses re
27、lating to business combination with Pepsi and effective tax ratefor both businesses exceeded 25%.Excluding these impacts,actual results could be even better.Table-4:Segment Results Breakdown By BusinessSegment Results,US$million,1H11,1H12,YoY,1Q11,1Q12,YoY,2Q11,2Q12,YoY,Segment Revenue,Instant Noodl
28、eBeverage Master KongBeverage PepsiBakery&OthersTotal,1,6182,39201294,140,1,8732,1024021564,533,15.8%-12.1%n.a.20.5%9.5%,9291,0420632,034,1,0308170801,927,10.9%-21.6%n.a.27.7%-5.2%,6891,3500662,106,8441,285402752,606,22.4%-4.9%n.a.13.6%23.8%,Gross Profit,Instant NoodleBeverageBakery&OthersTotal,4066
29、39371,082,551751501,352,35.7%17.5%33.9%24.9%,24228318543,30722825561,27.0%-19.3%44.0%3.4%,16435619540,24452224791,48.6%46.7%24.6%46.5%,Core EBIT,Instant NoodleBeverageBakery&OthersTotal,1322054340,1981448350,50.3%-29.8%103.3%2.7%,1011192222,125413169,23.8%-65.6%16.5%-24.2%,31862118,731035181,138.0%2
30、0.0%223.5%53.5%,Core Net Profit,Instant NoodleBeverageBakery&OthersTotal,107803190,149355189,40.0%-56.5%42.9%-0.5%,77442123,9481103,21.9%-82.8%-21.0%-16.4%,3035267,5627486,86.9%-23.6%105.0%28.8%,Gross Margin,Instant NoodleBeverage,25.1%26.7%,29.4%30.0%,+4.3 ppts+3.3 ppts,26.1%27.2%,29.9%27.9%,+3.8 p
31、pts+0.8 ppts,23.8%26.4%,28.9%31.0%,+5.1 ppts+4.6 ppts,Core EBIT Margin,Instant NoodleBeverage,8.1%8.6%,10.6%5.7%,+2.4 ppts-2.8 ppts,10.9%11.4%,12.1%5.0%,+1.3 ppts-6.4 ppts,4.4%6.4%,8.6%8.0%,+4.2 ppts+1.7 ppts,Core Net Margin,Instant NoodleBeverage,6.6%3.3%,8.0%1.4%,+1.4 ppts-1.9 ppts,8.3%4.3%,9.1%0.
32、9%,+0.8 ppts-3.3 ppts,4.3%2.6%,6.6%2.1%,+2.3 ppts-0.5 ppts,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.*Pepsi bottlers sales amounted to US$417.6 million in 1Q12 but the business combination had not been taken place until 1-April-2012.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 3 of 10,Nov-11,Jan&Feb-1
33、2,Jun-12,Jan&Feb-11,Jun-11,Jul-11,May-11,May-12,Mar-12,Aug-11,Sep-11,Mar-11,Oct-11,Apr-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,Jul-12,Mar-07,Mar-08,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-12,Sep-07,Sep-08,Sep-09,Sep-10,Dec-07,Dec-08,Dec-09,Dec-10,Sep-11,Jun-07,Jun-08,Jun-09,Jun-10,Jun-11,Dec-11,Jun-12,Mar-07,Mar-08,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-11,
34、Dec-07,Dec-08,Dec-09,Dec-10,Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-07,Jun-08,Jun-09,Jun-10,Jun-11,Sep-07,Sep-08,Sep-09,Sep-10,Sep-11,Jun-12,CompanyReport,Tingyi康师傅(00322HK),21August2012,5082,Instant Noodle Business Outlook:Stable Growth in 3Q12.YTD(Jan-Jul)production volume growth of instant noodles in China was 12.2%.I
35、nstant noodlesproduction volume growth in China in 2012 is expected to be slower than that of previous years(2009-2011)but we suspectconsumers are shifting back to Tingyis“Braised Beef(红烧牛肉)”and“Spicy Beef(香辣牛肉)”flavours as the Company putsefforts in improving their seasoning packs.The management sa
36、id instant noodles business is still growing steadily in 3Q12.Figure-1:Adjusted YoY&YTD Production Volume Growth of Instant Noodles in China,70%,Adjusted YoY Growth,YTD Growth,60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,Guotai Junan International.Low-End Brands Suffered
37、.According to ACNielsen,Tingyis market share in instant noodles market in Jun-2012 was 43.9%&57.0%,in terms of sales volume and sales value,respectively,while those of UPC(00220 HK)were 15.3%and 15.7%,correspondingly.Despite market share gained by UPC,Tingyi maintained its high market share.With con
38、sumption upgrade isexpected to keep taking place,market shares of Hualong(华龙)and Baixiang(白象)could continue to fall.,Figure-2:Instant Noodle Market Share by Volume,Figure-3:Instant Noodle Market Share by Value,50%,60%,57.0%,43.9%40%45%,Ti ngyi 康师傅,Uni-President 统一,30%,Tingyi 康师傅,Uni-Presi dent 统一,30
39、%,Hual ong 华龙,Baixiang 白象,20%,Hualong 华龙,Baixiang 白象,15%10%,0%Source:ACNielsen,the Company.,0%Source:ACNielsen,the Company.,Continuous Gross Margin Improvement in 3Q12.Flour accounted for 12%-18%of Tingyis instant noodle production costsand flour price has stabilised since 3Q11.Average flour price i
40、n 2012 is not expected to significantly deviate from current level.On the other hand,palm oil attributed 12%-15%to instant noodle manufacturing costs and palm oil procurement price fell by10.2%YoY in 2Q12.Weak palm oil price is likely to benefit the Companys gross margin in 3Q12.However,packet noodl
41、esales growth could continue to surpass that of bowl noodle and partially offset benefits from falling raw materials prices.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 4 of 10,21August2012,3Q12F,1Q07,3Q07,1Q08,3Q08,1Q09,3Q09,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11,1Q12,3Q12F,1Q07,3Q07,1Q08,3Q08,1Q09,3Q09,1Q10,3Q10,1Q11,3Q11
42、,1Q12,Tingyi康师傅(00322HK),CompanyReport,Figure-4:RMB/ton3,5003,2503,0002,75050822,5002,2502,000,Average Flour Price YoY Growthvs.Tingyi Procurement Cost,25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%,Figure-5:RMB/ton11,00010,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,000,Average Palm Oil Price YoY Growthvs.Tingyi Procurement Cost,100%
43、80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%,Tingyi Flour Procurement Cost-LHSTingyi Flour Procurement Cost YoY Grow th-RHSAverage Flour Price YoY Grow th-RHSSource:the Company,National Bureau of Statistics of China.,Tingyi Palm Oil Procurement Cost-LHSTingyi Palm Oil Procurement Cost YoY Grow th(3M Lagged)-RHSAverag
44、e MDE Palm Oil Price YoY Grow th-RHSSource:the Company,MDEX.,Minor Amendment to Previous Earnings Forecasts of Instant Noodle Business.In view of high effective tax rate in 1H12,we conservatively incorporate higher effective tax rate assumption for 2012.Owing to higher finance costs brought by theis
45、suance of corporate bond,we also revise down 2013 earnings forecast.Table-5:Instant Noodle Business Assumptions Revisions,US$millionRevenueGross ProfitEBITNet ProfitGross MarginEBIT MarginNet Margin,2012F4,1641,22851638429.5%12.4%9.2%,NEW2013F4,8571,46963947930.3%13.2%9.9%,2014F5,7221,70373655929.8%
46、12.9%9.8%,2012F4,2091,27651039030.3%12.1%9.3%,OLD2013F4,9341,50764349430.5%13.0%10.0%,2014F5,5441,62671154429.3%12.8%9.8%,2012F-1.1%-3.8%1.1%-1.7%-0.8 ppts+0.3 ppts-0.1 ppts,CHANGE2013F-1.6%-2.5%-0.7%-2.9%-0.3 ppts+0.1 ppts-0.1 ppts,2014F3.2%4.7%3.5%2.7%+0.4 pptsSAMESAME,Source:Guotai Junan Internat
47、ional.,See the last page for disclaimer,Page 5 of 10,Nov-11,Jan&Feb-12,Jan&Feb-11,Jun-11,Jun-12,Jul-11,Jul-12,Aug-11,Sep-11,Apr-11,Mar-11,May-11,Dec-11,Mar-12,Apr-12,May-12,Oct-11,Jan&Feb-11,Nov-11,Jul-11,Jan&Feb-12,Jun-11,Aug-11,May-11,Sep-11,Dec-11,May-12,Mar-11,Oct-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Apr-11,Apr-12,
48、Jul-12,Tingyi康师傅(00322HK),Dec-11,Dec-09,Dec-10,Dec-08,Mar-10,Dec-07,Mar-08,Mar-07,Mar-09,Mar-11,Mar-12,Jun-10,Jun-08,Jun-07,Jun-09,Jun-11,Jun-12,Sep-09,Sep-07,Sep-08,Sep-10,Sep-11,Dec-09,Dec-10,Dec-11,Mar-07,Mar-08,Mar-09,Mar-10,Mar-11,Mar-12,Jun-07,Jun-08,Jun-09,Jun-10,Jun-11,Dec-07,Dec-08,Sep-09,S
49、ep-10,Sep-07,Sep-08,Sep-11,Jun-12,CompanyReport,21August2012,Beverage Business Outlook:Slight Improvement in Growth and Product Mix.Owing to food safety scandals and weak economic growth,consumertaste towards beverages has changed since 3Q11.However,we observe slight improvement recently that not on
50、ly soft drinkproduction volume growth to pick up but also a shift of consumer taste from water to juice and other drinks.Tingyis 2Q12results also support the structural change in consumer taste.The management did not comment on whether the Company isable to record 15%sales growth in 2012 but we do n
