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1、Insight Report,Global Risks 2012Seventh Edition,An Initiative of the Risk Response Network,The information in this report,or on which this reportis based,has been obtained from sources that theauthors believe to be reliable and accurate.However,it has not been independently verified and no,represent
2、ation or warranty,express or implied,is madeas to the accuracy or completeness of any informationobtained from third parties.In addition,the statementsin this report may provide current expectations of futureevents based on certain assumptions and include anystatement that does not directly relate t
3、o a historical factor a current fact.These statements involve known andunknown risks,uncertainties and other factors whichare not exhaustive.The companies contributing to thisreport operate in a continually changing environmentand new risks emerge continually.Readers arecautioned not to place undue
4、reliance on these,statements.The companies contributing to this reportundertake no obligation to publicly revise or updateany statements,whether as a result of new information,future events or otherwise and they shall in no event beliable for any loss or damage arising in connection withthe use of t
5、he information in this report.,2012 World Economic ForumAll rights reserved.,No part of this publication may be reproduced ortransmitted in any form or by any means,includingphotocopying and recording,or by any informationstorage and retrieval system.,ISBN:92-95044-35-5978-92-95044-35-7REF:030112,Wo
6、rld Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerland,Tel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744,contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.org,3,Global Risks 2012Seventh Edition,An Initiative of the Risk Response Network,World Economic Forum in collaboration with:Marsh&McLennan CompaniesS
7、wiss Reinsurance Company,Wharton Center for Risk Management,University of PennsylvaniaZurich Financial Services,Global Risks 2012,Impact,Impact,Impact,Impact,Impact,1,1,4,5,2,3,1,3,4,4.0,3.5,1,2,3,4,5,3,4,4,Figure 1:Five Global Risk Categories-LandscapesLandscapes depict potential impact and likelih
8、ood of global risks over the next 10 years,as rated on a 1 to 5 scale by respondents of theGlobal Risks Survey.,4.5,Economic RisksMajor systemicnancial failure,Chronic scal,4.5,Environmental Risks,4.0,Extreme volatility in,imbalances,4.0,energy and agriculture pricesRecurring liquidity crises,Severe
9、 income,Failure of climatechange adaptation,Rising greenhousegas emissions,3.5,1,2,disparity,3.5,Irremediable pollution1,2,3,Land and waterwayuse mismanagement,3.0,4,3,3.0,Mismanaged urbanizationSpecies overexploitation,Unforeseen negative consequencesof regulations,Vulnerability to geomagnetic stor
10、ms,Likelihood,3.0,3.5,4.0,4.5,Likelihood,3.0,3.5,4.0,4.5,4.5,Geopolitical Risks,4.5,Societal Risks,4.0,Diffusion of weaponsof mass destruction,4.0,Water supply crisesFood shortage crises,3.53.0,Global governance failureFailure of diplomaticconict resolution3,2,TerrorismCritical fragile statesPervasi
11、ve entrenchedcorruption,3.53.0,Unsustainablepopulation growth,Backlash against globalization,Militarization of space,Ineffective drug policies,Likelihood,3.0,3.5,4.0,4.5,Likelihood,3.0,3.5,4.0,4.5,Technological Risks,Unmanageable ination or deation,4.5,2,Chronic labour market imbalances,Prolonged in
12、frastructure neglectHard landing of an emerging economy1 Unprecedented geophysical destruction2 Persistent extreme weather3 Antibiotic-resistant bacteria,Critical systems failure,Cyber attacks,1 Entrenched organized crime2 Widespread illicit trade3 Unilateral resource nationalization,3.0,Mineral res
13、ourcesupply vulnerability2 1345,Massive incident ofdata fraud or theft,12,Vulnerability to pandemicsRising religious fanaticismMismanagement of population agingUnmanaged migrationRising rates of chronic diseaseMassive digital misinformationUnintended consequences of new life science technologies,Pro
14、liferation of orbital debris,Unintended consequences of climate change mitigationUnintended consequences of nanotechnology,Likelihood,3.0,3.5,4.0,4.5,5,Failure of intellectual property regime,Source:World Economic ForumGlobal Risks 2012,Impact,or deation,3.5,Mismanaged urbanization,of new life,Wides
15、pread illicit trade,p a,science technologies,Unilateral resource,3.0,5,Figure 2:Global Risks Landscape 20124.5Major systemic nancial failure,4.0,Water supply crises,Food shortage crises,Chronic scal imbalances,Diffusion of weapons of mass destructionGlobal governance failure,Extreme volatility in en
16、ergy and agriculture prices,Critical systems failure,Recurring liquidity crises,Terrorism,Severe income disparityRising greenhouse gas emissions,Unsustainable population growth Rising religiousfanaticismVulnerability to pandemicsUnmanageable ination Irremediable pollutionPersistent extreme weather,F
17、ailure of climate change adaptationFailure of diplomatic conict resolutionAntibiotic-resistant bacteriaLand and waterway use mismanagementCritical fragile states Cyber attacks,Unprecedented geophysicaldestruction,Chronic labour market imbalances,Pervasive entrenched corruptionMismanagement of popula
18、tion aging,Unmanaged migrationRising rates of chronic disease Prolonged infrastructureMineral resource supply vulnerability neglectMassive incident of data fraud or theft Entrenched organized crimeMassive digital misinformationHard landing of an emerging economyBacklash against globalizationUnintend
19、ed Species overexploitationconsequencesUnintended consequencesof climate change mitigationVulnerability to geomagnetic storms nationalization,Militarizationof space,Unintended consequences of nanotechnology,Ineffective drug policies,Unforeseen negative consequences of regulationsFailure of intellect
20、ual property regimeProliferation of orbital debris,Likelihood,3.0,3.5,4.0,4.5,Source:World Economic ForumGlobal Risks 2012,6,Figure 3:Global Risks Map 2012,Irremediable pollution,Persistent extreme weather,Rising greenhousegas emissions,Unforeseen negative con-sequences of regulations,Failure of cli
21、matechange adaptation,Extreme volatility in energyand agriculture prices,Massive incident ofdata fraud or theftCyber attacks,Terrorism,Pervasiveentrenched corruption,Mismanaged urbanizationLand and waterwayuse mismanagement,Critical systems failureMassive digital misinformation,Backlash againstgloba
22、lization,Globalgovernancefailure,Critical fragile statesMismanagement ofpopulation agingFailure of diplomatic,Unsustainablepopulation growthFood shortage crises,conict resolution,Unmanaged migration,Major systemic nancial failure,Prolonged infra,Severe income disparity,structure neglectChronic labou
23、r market imbalances,Unmanageable ination or deationSource:World Economic ForumGlobal Risks 2012,Chronicscal imbalances,Recurring liquidity crises,13,16,20,24,28,50,51,7,ContentsSection 1,8910,PrefaceForewordExecutive Summary,Methodology and Survey ResultsSection 2Case 1-Seeds of DystopiaCase 2-How S
24、afe are ourSafeguards?Case 3-The Dark Side ofConnectivitySection 3Special Report:The Great East JapanEarthquakeSection 4,36,The Risk Categories,3638404244Section 5,EconomicEnvironmentalGeopoliticalSocietalTechnological,484950585962,Further ActionConclusionAppendicesAppendix 1-The Global RisksSurveyA
25、ppendix 2-In-depth SurveyResultsFurther ReadingAcknowledgementsProject Team,Global Risks 2012,Section1,Section2,Section3,Section4,Section5,8,Preface,The more complex the system,the greaterthe risk of systemic breakdown,but also,the greater the potential for opportunity.Together,we have the foresight
26、 andcollaborative spirit to shape our globalfuture and particularly the survival instinctto move from pure urgency-driven riskmanagement to more collaborative effortsaimed at strengthening risk resilience to thebenefit of global society.Klaus SchwabFounder and Executive ChairmanWorld Economic ForumA
27、cross every sector of society,decision-makers are struggling with the complexityand velocity of change in an increasinglyinterdependent world.The context fordecision-making has evolved,and in manycases has been altered in revolutionaryways.In the decade ahead,our lives will bemore intensely shaped b
28、y transformativeforces,including economic,environmental,geopolitical,societal and technologicalseismic shifts.The signals are alreadyapparent with the rebalancing of the globaleconomy,the presence of over seven billionpeople and the societal and environmentalchallenges linked to both.The resultingco
29、mplexity threatens to overwhelm countries,companies,cultures and communities.We need to explore and develop newconceptual models which address globalchallenges.It is in this spirit that I present theWorld Economic Forums Global Risks 2012report.Now in its seventh edition,the reportfeatures more refi
30、ned risk descriptions andrigorous data analysis covering 50 globalrisks.It aims to improve public and privatesector efforts to map,monitor,manageand mitigate global risks.It is also a“call toaction”for the international community toimprove current efforts at coordination andcollaboration,as none of
31、the global riskshighlighted respects national boundaries.This report captures the input of risk leadersin thought and practice,including membersof the World Economic Forums GlobalAgenda Councils.It is also underpinned bythe support and guidance of all the partnersof the Risk Response Network.Underly
32、ingall these risks are velocity,multiplicity,andinterconnectivity creating a global systemwhere mastering complexities will be theforemost challenge.Global Risks 2012,Section1,Section2,Section3,Section4,Section5,9,Foreword,The World Economic Forums RiskResponse Network(RRN)was launchedto provide pri
33、vate and public sectorleaders with an independent,impartialplatform to map,measure,monitor,manage and mitigate global risks.Ourflagship research activity is this report.Now in its seventh edition,the reportsresearch methodology has beensignificantly revamped.Data and analysisare based on a newly des
34、igned surveycovering a meaningfully expanded setof 50 global risks across five categories.The assessments of these risks morethan doubled as a result of this yearssurvey,with 469 experts and industryleaders responding worldwide.Thesurvey captures the perceived impactand likelihood for each risk over
35、 a 10-year,An important aim of Global Risks 2012 is tohelp decision-makers evaluate complex riskevents and to respond proactively in timesof crisis hence the inclusion this year ofa special report on the 11 March crisis inJapan.Moreover,each of the three casesin this report now feature key discussio
36、nquestions to contemplate in this regard.TheRRN will also focus on the three cases byconvening board members,risk executivesand policy-makers at the highest level atForum events throughout the year ahead,todiscuss resilient global risk management.Looking beyond 2012,the Risk ResponseNetwork will exp
37、lore the global riskshighlighted in this report in their appropriateregional,country or industry contextsby launching task forces and initiativesdesigned specifically for their mitigation.Many of these efforts will be driven byan interdisciplinary and multistakeholdercommunity,the Network of Global
38、AgendaCouncils,as they are the key expertsfocusing on risk mitigation within the RRN.We look forward to your comments andfeedback,as our aim is to enhance thequality and impact of this report eachand every year as part of the Forumscommitment to improve the state of theworld.Lee HowellManaging Direc
39、torRisk Response Network,time horizon using a clear and simplefive-point scale to indicate the severity ofimpact,which provides a more intuitivemeasure than the billions of US dollarsor hundreds of thousands of lives usedin previous years.All of the above wasachieved as a result of the unprecedented
40、support from the Forums Network ofGlobal Agenda Councils of over 1,000renowned experts worldwide.Readers will also see markedimprovements in data analysis andvisualization in this report.A dynamicassessment of each global risk will beavailable via a new digital platform,“Toplink.”It is a collaborati
41、ve,intelligence-sharing platform with a social mediainterface and mobile applications for thoseengaged in the RRN.The“risk radar”anddynamic“risk barometer”are among theinnovative analytical and measurementtools currently in development.Many ofthese features are also available on theForums website.Gl
42、obal Risks 2012,Section1,Section2,Section3,Section4,Section5,Executive Summary,The World Economic Forums Global Risks2012 report is based on a survey of 469experts from industry,government,academia and civil society that examines 50global risks across five categories.The report emphasizes the singul
43、ar effect ofa particular constellation of global risksrather than focusing on a single existentialrisk.Three distinct constellations of risks thatpresent a very serious threat to our futureprosperity and security emerged from areview of this years set of risks.,The three risk cases describe the link
44、s across a selection of theglobal risks,their interplay and how they are likely to develop overthe next 10 years.The cases are initially based on a quantitativeanalysis of interconnections identified in the survey and thendeveloped further via a qualitative analysis conducted throughForum workshops
45、worldwide and follow-up discussions withproject advisors.Case 1:Seeds of DystopiaDystopia,the opposite of a utopia,describes a place where life is fullof hardship and devoid of hope.Analysis of linkages across variousglobal risks reveals a constellation of fiscal,demographic andsocietal risks signal
46、ling a dystopian future for much of humanity.Theinterplay among these risks could result in a world where a largeyouth population contends with chronic,high levels ofunemployment,while concurrently,the largest population of retireesin history becomes dependent upon already heavily indebtedgovernment
47、s.Both young and old could face an income gap,aswell as a skills gap so wide as to threaten social and politicalstability.This case underscores the danger that could arise if decliningeconomic conditions jeopardize the social contracts betweenstates and citizens.In the absence of viable alternatives
48、,this couldprecipitate a downward spiral of the global economy fuelled byprotectionism,nationalism and populism.Case 2:How Safe are our Safeguards?As the world grows increasingly complex and interdependent,thecapacity to manage the systems that underpin our prosperity andsafety is diminishing.The co
49、nstellation of risks arising fromemerging technologies,financial interdependence,resourcedepletion and climate change exposes the weak and brittle natureof existing safeguards the policies,norms,regulations orinstitutions which serve as a protective system.Our safeguards mayno longer be fit to manag
50、e vital resources and ensure orderlymarkets and public safety.The interdependence and complexity inherent in globalizationrequire engaging a wider group of stakeholders to establish moreadaptable safeguards which could improve effective and timelyresponses to emerging risks.,10,Global Risks 2012,Sec
