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1、,Portfolio&Quant Strategy,January 25,2013,A-share Market,RESEARCH,Chao WANGSFC CE Ref:ASXQiusuo LIJian LIU,Event-Driven Investment Strategy2012 Earnings Preannouncements AnalysisInvestment highlightsThe A-share main boards recent round of annual results announcements signals the start ofthe 2012 ear
2、nings season.In this report,we will analyze 2012 results based on earningspreannouncements and preliminary earnings estimates of listed companies.2012 earnings preannouncement analysis:The proportions of listed companiespreannouncing good news and 50%earnings growth increased,suggesting the number o
3、fcompanies that record sequential earnings improvement amid economic recovery has beenrising,raising good expectations for upcoming annual results announcements.Significantsector divergence:1)in healthcare,electronics,F watch thematic investmentopportunities with nonferrous metals and agriculture in
4、 the medium/short term.A)Industries that could post persistent earnings growth:among healthcare,electronics,F&Band nonferrous metals that have a good chance of reporting sequential earnings recovery,we suggest investors focus on healthcares medium-/long-term investment opportunities.B)Cyclicals with
5、 sequential earnings rise:we like nonferrous metals in the medium/shortterm and believe it will perform well on the market rally and receive a boost from 2012results.C)Catch-up of laggards that were hurt by poor earnings forecasts:We preferagriculture in the medium/short term.The agriculture sector
6、did not significantly benefitfrom economic recovery and has been underperforming the market on poor earningsexpectations.We believe some agricultural stocks,especially those benefiting fromagricultural modernization,could catch up due to persistent underperformance andeuphoric sentiment to be fueled
7、 by the upcoming NPC&CPPCC sessions.Our stockselections based on CICC sector analysts forecasts are shown in the following figures.Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report,PE PB,(12,%),(%),(12,%),Chg(%),PE PB,PE,PB,(12,%),Chg,CICC Research:January 25,2013Favor nonfer
8、rous metal stocks with earnings recovery in the short/medium term,Code,Name,CICCrating,Warning type,Expected growth（12，%）,1W YTD,PchgChg(%),2011,P/E P/B2012E 2013E 2011,Short term(before the Spring Festival),600362.SH,Jiangxi Copper Company Limited,ACCUM,(3.57)13.24,12.85,16.41,14.55,2.14,000060.SZ,
9、Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company Limited,ACCUM,(4.18),9.50,19.40,35.85,26.35,3.48,600497.SH Yunnan Chihong Zinc&Germanium Co.,Ltd.,ACCUM,(2.25)10.56,52.21,56.90,43.02,5.15,Medium term(after the Spring Festival),600549.SH,Xiamen Tungsten Co.,Ltd,ACCUM,(3.59)33.64,26.37,44.02,29.44,7.82,6001
10、11.SH,Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth(Group)Hi-Tech Co.,Ltd ACCUM,(2.63)91.50,24.98,36.85,29.59,15.42,002340.SZ,Shenzhen Green Eco-Manufacture Hi-Tech Co.,Ltd.,ACCUM Slight growth,30.00,(3.35)25.43,58.28,44.09,29.37,3.25,Source:Wind,CICC ResearchFavor agricultural stocks that may catch up and
11、 benefit from the upcoming NPC&CPPCC sessions in theshort/medium term,Code,Name,CICCrating,Warning type,Expected growth（12，%）,Pchg(%)1W YTD,2011,P/E P/B2012E 2013E 2011,Short and medium term（before NPC and CPPCC）,000998.SZ,Yuan Longping High-tech Agriculture Co.,Ltd,BUY,4.62,30.97,69.95,37.26,32.16,
12、8.69,002041.SZ,Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.,Ltd,BUY,Slight growth,30.00,3.52,(9.16)39.23,35.08,28.36,8.06,Source:Wind,CICC ResearchFavor healthcare stocks with steady earnings growth in the medium/long term,Code,Name,CICCrating,Warning type,Expected growth（12，%）,Pchg(%)1W YTD,2011,P/E2012E,2013E,P/B20
13、11,Portfolio with sustainable earnings stability,600276.SH000963.SZ600085.SH600535.SH000513.SZ,Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.,Ltd.Huadong Medicine Co.,Ltd.Beijing Tongrentang Co.,LtdTasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd.Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc.,BUYBUYACCUMACCUMACCUM,1.82(2.11)0.451.790.00,17.5039
14、.7445.0839.4268.99,44.2242.3359.9848.5927.90,35.6832.8846.7939.2522.03,28.6126.2237.4530.3518.06,9.1810.567.568.243.53,000538.SZ Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd.,ACCUM,2.50,39.63,42.31,33.21,26.59,9.22,Portfolio with sound business strategies,600521.SH002422.SZ002262.SZ600587.SH600557.SH,Zhejiang Huahai
15、 Pharmaceutical Co.,LtdSichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd.Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.,LtdShinva Medical Instrument Co.,Ltd.Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd.,BUYACCUMACCUMBUYACCUM,GrowthSlight growthSlight growth,60.0030.0050.00,(2.62)0.121.800.5311.14,26.2148.6752.8316.2763.47,34.7531.906
16、4.0352.7254.54,24.2728.0046.5135.7541.55,19.0221.3933.4125.8130.18,4.933.9312.247.176.93,Source:Wind,CICC ResearchPlease read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report2,CICC Research:January 25,2013,Contents,Analysis of 2012 earnings preannouncements.4,Figures,Favor nonferrous me
17、tal stocks with earnings recovery in the short/medium term.2Favor agricultural stocks that may catch up and benefit from the upcoming NPC&CPPCC sessions in theshort/medium term.2Favor healthcare stocks with steady earnings growth in the medium/long term.2Figure 1:Timing distribution of 2012 earnings
18、 preannouncements.4Figure 2:Proportions of listed companies releasing 2012 earnings preannouncements.4Figure 3:Proportion of listed companies preannouncing 50%earnings growth and good news is recovering.5Figure 4:2012 earnings preannouncements breakdown.5Figure 5:Preannounced earnings growth movemen
19、ts for 2012.5Figure 6:Sequential proportion change of companies preannouncing 50%earnings growth as a percentage oftotal sector constituents 3Q12 to 2012.6Figure 7:Sequential share movements of companies preannouncing 50%earnings decline as a percentage oftotal sector constituents from 3Q12 to 2012.
20、6Figure 8:Infrastructure investments slowed modestly,but real estate investments rebounded in 4Q12.7Figure 9:Manufacturing investments slowed to a low level by historical norm.7Figure 10:2012 earnings preannouncements by sector.7Figure 11:Net profit growth of listed companies releasing preliminary e
21、arnings estimates.8Figure 12:Favor healthcare stocks with steady earnings growth in the medium/long term.9Figure 13:Favor nonferrous metal stocks with earnings recovery in the short/medium term.9Figure 14:Favor agricultural stocks that could catch up and benefit from the upcoming NPC&CPPCC sessions
22、inthe short/medium term.10,Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report,3,10-15,10-22,10-29,11-05,11-12,11-19,11-26,12-03,12-10,12-17,12-24,12-31,01-07,01-14,01-21,01-28,02-04,02-11,02-18,02-25,03-04,03-11,03-18,03-25,04-01,04-08,04-15,04-22,04-29,2005,CICC Research:Janu
23、ary 25,2013Analysis of 2012 earnings preannouncementsThe A-share main boards recent round of annual results announcements signals the start ofthe 2012 earnings season.In this report,we will analyze the 2012 results of A-share listedcompanies based on their earnings preannouncements and preliminary e
24、arnings estimates.(I)Earnings preannouncements analysisProportions of companies preannouncing good news and 50%earnings growth bothincreasedA total of 1,143 A-share listed companies have released 2012 earnings preannouncements sofar,with 313 on the main board(22.1%of constituents),700 on the SME boa
25、rd(99.9%),and130 on ChiNext(36.6%).All listed companies on the SME board had released 2012 earningsguidance by end-October 2012,and the second round of peak preannouncements started inmid-January 2013.,Figure 1:Time distribution of 2012 earningspreannouncementsTime distribution of earning pre-announ
26、cement,Figure 2:Proportions of listed companies releasing2012 earnings preannouncements,1,800,20062007,120,%,Main board,SME,ChiNext,1,600,2008,1,400,200920102011,100,89.1,100.0,96.3,95.9,98.1 98.2 99.9,1,200,2012,80,78.4,1,000,800600,6040,46.5,49.7,58.6,55.4,60.2,54.3,41.8,47.3,36.6,400,200,20,18.0,
27、22.1,00,2005-12,2006-12,2007-12,2008-12,2009-12,2010-12,2011-12,2012-12,Source:Wind,CICC Research,Source:Wind,CICC ResearchBased on earnings preannouncements now available(50%decline,first loss,continued loss,slight decline,slight growth,turning profitable,continued profit;50%growth,anduncertainties
28、),654 companies released good news(slight growth,turning profitable,continued profit,and 50%growth),representing 57.72%,lower than 2011s 67.08%,butslightly higher than 3Q12s 51.05%.The share of companies preannouncing 50%earningsgrowth was 16.50%,marking the second straight quarterly redound of this
29、 figure.We believethe number of companies achieving record sequential earnings improvement amid economicrecovery has been rising,raising expectations for upcoming annual results announcements.Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report4,2005-12,2006-12,2007-12,2008-12,2
30、009-12,2010-12,2011-12,2012-12,-200,-80,-60),-60,-40),-40,-20),-20,0),20,40),40,60),-100,-80),60,100),100,120),120,150),-200,-100),0,20),150,200),=200,CICC Research:January 25,2013Figure 3:Proportion of listed companies preannouncing 50%earnings growth and good news recovering,2H12,3Q12,1H12,1Q12,2H
31、11,3Q11,1H11,1Q11,UncertainSlight declineSlight growthTurning profitableInitial lossesContinued losses-makingContinued profit-makingDeclineGrowthPreannouncing good newsTotal,1.1%15.2%25.1%4.6%8.8%1.6%11.6%15.5%16.5%57.7%100.0%,0.5%18.4%26.8%2.8%10.0%5.5%7.9%14.6%13.6%51.0%100.0%,0.7%16.4%26.3%3.6%10
32、.5%6.8%9.2%13.6%12.9%52.0%100.0%,0.0%8.0%22.0%4.8%14.5%12.5%3.3%16.2%18.7%48.8%100.0%,0.4%11.1%27.9%4.8%7.1%2.6%7.5%11.7%26.8%67.1%100.0%,0.4%7.6%24.7%5.5%4.5%7.7%9.8%7.9%31.9%72.0%100.0%,1.0%6.1%24.0%5.2%5.9%9.4%7.8%6.8%33.8%70.8%100.0%,0.0%0.7%1.7%8.2%10.9%18.4%0.0%8.7%51.2%61.2%100.0%,Source:Wind
33、,CICC ResearchThat said,investors should note that:1)although the number of companiespreannouncing 50%earnings growth and other good news increased sequentially,thefigure remained relatively low compared to the past eight years(Figure 4).Thecompanies preannouncing good news represented 57.72%,the se
34、cond lowest figure in thepast eight years(only higher than that in 2008),and the share of companiespreannouncing 50%earnings growth has not exceeded 20%even after the two-quarterrebound,and sits at the lowest level since 2005,suggesting corporate earnings remainedrelatively weak in spite of some imp
35、rovements.,Figure 4:2012 earnings preannouncementsbreakdown,Figure 5:Preannounced earnings growth movementsfor 2012,10090,%,Grow thContinued,180160,Largest magnitude of net profit change170,807060,profit-makingTurningprofitableSlight grow th,140120100,93,113,82,124,100,50403020,UncertainSlight decli
36、neContinued,80604020,46,21,58,69,58,40,18,12,47,100Source:Wind,CICC Research,losses-makingInitial lossesDecline,0Source:Wind,CICC Research,The share of listed companies preannouncing 50%earnings declines also increased:This figure now stands at 15.5%,2.9ppt and 3.6ppt higher than in 3Q12 and 1H12,re
37、spectively.This indicates earnings of some listed companies are worsening in spite of theeconomic recovery.This is consistent with the CICC macro teams view:Chinas recovery ofgrowth momentum is not yet on a solid footing.We will analyze this situation thoroughly.Significant sector divergenceIn order
38、 to find which sectors should benefit more from the economic recovery,and whichremain sluggish,we compare sequential share movements of companiespreannouncing 50%earnings growth/decline as a percentage of each sectors totalconstituents for 2012 with that for 3Q12.As illustrated in Figures 6&7,the in
39、dustriesdiverged sharply.Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report5,Commercial,trade,Chemical,industry,Pharmaceutical,biotechnology,Ferrousmetals,Foodtourism,Financial,services,Complex,Textile&,apparel,Transportation,Machinery&,equipment,Realestate,Information,equipme
40、nt,Information,services,Mining,Household,appliances,Building,materials,Delivery,device,Utilities,Light,manufacturing,Non-ferrous,metals,Agriculture,forestry,animal,Electronic,Food&,beverage,Pharmaceutical,biotechnology,Ferrousmetals,Foodtourism,Commercial,trade,Chemical,industry,Financial,services,C
41、omplex,Textile&,apparel,Realestate,Transportation,Mining,Information,equipment,Light,manufacturing,Non-ferrous,metals,Information,services,Electronic,Delivery,device,Utilities,Machinery&,equipment,Household,appliances,Agriculture,forestry,animal,Building,materials,CICC Research:January 25,2013Figure
42、 6:Sequential proportion change of companies preannouncing 50%earnings growth as a percentage oftotal sector constituents 3Q12 to 2012,3.0%2.0%,2.0%,2.4%,2.5%,1.0%,0.5%,0.5%,0.7%,0.8%,1.0%,1.0%,1.1%,0.1%0.0%,-1.0%-2.0%,-1.5%-1.5%-1.3%,-1.1%-1.0%,-0.8%,-0.5%-0.5%-0.4%,-0.3%-0.3%,-3.0%,-4.0%,-3.3%,Sou
43、rce:Wind,CICC Research In healthcare,electronics,F&B and nonferrous metals,the proportion ofcompanies preannouncing 50%earnings growth increased,while that ofcompanies preannouncing 50%earnings declines stayed flat or declined from3Q12 to 2012.Healthcare,electronics and F&B continued to benefit from
44、 Chinaseconomic restructuring,changes in demographic structure,and the economic recovery,while nonferrous metals was mainly helped by broad-based price growth in 4Q12.Figure 7:Sequential share movements of companies preannouncing 50%earnings decline as a percentage oftotal sector constituents from 3
45、Q12 to 20124.0%,3.0%,2.0%,2.1%,2.8%,2.0%1.0%,0.0%,0.1%,0.2%,0.5%,0.8%,1.0%,1.2%,1.4%,0.0%,-1.0%-2.0%,-2.0%,-1.7%,-1.3%,-1.0%-1.0%,-0.6%-0.6%,-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%,-3.0%-3.0%-4.0%Source:Wind,CICC Research Agriculture,commercial trade and textiles and edible oil is suffering from declining internationaloils
46、eeds prices and soft demand.As the 4Q12 economic recovery was mainly driven byinvestment and domestic consumption,the earnings of commercial trade and textiles&apparel also declined broadly.Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report6,Chemical,industry,Comprehensive,Fer
47、rousmetals,Financial,services,Delivery,equipment,Transportation,Machineryand,equipment,Non-ferrous,metals,Electronic,Textileand,Apparel,Building,materials,Information,equipment,Commercial,trade,Foodtourism,Realestate,Medicaland,biological,Information,services,Mining,Household,appliances,Utilities,Li
48、ght,manufacturing,Animal,husbandryand,Foodand,Beverage,%,1,CICC Research:January 25,2013,Figure 8:Infrastructure investments slowed modestly,but real estate investments rebounded in 4Q12,Figure 9:Manufacturing investments slowed to a lowlevel by historical norm,Real estate investment,Infrastructure
49、investment,YoY,%,Manufacturing investment,YoY,%45,604050354030,3020100,25201510,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:Wind,CICC Research,Source:Wind,CICC Research,Construction,building materials and machinery saw a structural divergence due todiscrepancies in policy supp
50、ort and property investment exposure.The share ofcompanies preannouncing 50%earnings growth increased and that of companiespreannouncing 50%earnings declines also expanded.This structural divergence mainlyreflects that growth was primarily driven by the earlier acceleration in government-ledinfrastr
