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1、Top picks,Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/Commodity,PeriodicalRailcar&PetroChemical,Date14 January 2013,UpdateDavid Begleiter,CFA,US chemical shipments-0.9%.Ethane-1c/gal to 22c/galRailcar loadings 4-week moving avg.down 0.9%,weekly loadings d
2、own 3.8%The 4-week moving average of chemical railcar loadings declined 0.9%inWeek#1(ended January 5)vs.a 1.3%increase the prior week.2013 loadingsYTD are down 0.8%.In 2012 railcar loadings fell 0.8%.Chemical railcarloadings represent 30%of total US chemical shipment tonnage(followed bytrucks,barges
3、,and pipelines),offering a measurement of broader chemicalindustry activity and demand trends.The more volatile measure of weeklyloadings declined 3.8%YoY(versus a 7.3%decline in the prior week)anddeclined 2.5%sequentially(vs.a 13.6%decrease in the prior week).Ethane prices fell 1c/gal last week to
4、22c/galEthane prices fell 1c/gal last week to 22c/gal while spot ethylene prices rose4c/lb to 64c/lb.Subsequently,spot ethylene margins rose 5c/lb to 49c/lb.Polymer grade propylene spot prices for January rose 3c/lb to 70c/lb amidsupply tightness on the back of PetroLogistics PDH unit outage.Nominat
5、ionsfor January propylene contract prices are expected to be 14-15c/lb higher amidreduced inventories due to unplanned outages.,Research Analyst(+1)212 250-Ramanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst()212 250-Jermaine BrownResearch Associate(+1)212 250-3624jermaine-Ashland(ASH.N),USD84.67LyondellBasell(LYB.
6、N),USD60.91Eastman Chemical(EMN.N),USD70.52,IHS expects ethane prices to remain below 30c/gal thru April.And whilepropane prices are expected to rise modestly,they remain depressed versushistorical averages in the 75-85c/gal range due to i)a warm winter,ii)a delay inthe start-up of Enterprises expor
7、t terminal startup until sometime in Q1 13,and iii)elevated inventory levels(near five-year highs).Dow Chemical(DOW,Hold)and Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy)are the most leveraged US chemicalnames to propane.TiO2 prices continue to weaken globally.,(GDP,Real YoY)USEurolandJapanG7Asia ex-JapanChinaGlobal,20
8、09-2.6%-4.1%-5.3%-3.5%5.7%9.1%-0.9%,20103.0%1.9%4.1%2.9%9.4%10.3%5.1%,2011 2012E 2013E 2014E1.8%2.3%2.0%2.9%1.4%-0.5%-0.3%1.1%-0.7%2.0%0.6%0.6%1.4%1.5%1.2%2.1%7.3%5.9%6.7%7.5%9.2%7.7%8.2%8.9%3.6%2.9%3.2%4.0%,TiO2 prices continue to weaken globally amid weak demand,excess,Source:DB Global Economics T
9、eam,inventories and lower raw material costs.In North America,Q4 TiO2 priceswere assessed down by an average of$0.10/lb,or 6%,to$1.63/lb.This is thesecond price decrease during the quarter bringing the total Q4 price reductionto$0.20/lb,or 11%.In Europe,Q1 TiO2 quarterly contracts fell 0.20/kg,or 7%
10、,to 2.60/kg.In Asia,TiO2 prices fell$100-$200/m.t.,or 3-6%,to$2,800-$3,200/m.t.Since its Spring peak TiO2 prices have declined by 20%,20%and28%in North America,Europe and Asia,respectively.Looking ahead weexpect North American TiO2 prices to weaken further in Q1 and while thespring US paint season s
11、hould strengthen demand in 1H we believe it will bedifficult for prices to move much higher owing to lower feedstock ore prices.We maintain our equal-weight stance on the sectorWithin in the chemicals sector,our top specialty chemical idea is Ashland(ASH,Buy,TP$90),our top differentiated chemical id
12、ea is Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy,TP$80)and our top commodity chemical idea is LyondellBasell(LYB,Buy,TP$70)_Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interes
13、t that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,18-Apr-10,18-Apr-11,18-Aug-10,18-Aug-11,18-Apr-12,18-Aug-12,18-Feb-1
14、1,18-Feb-10,18-Feb-12,18-Oct-10,18-Oct-11,18-Dec-10,18-Dec-11,18-Oct-12,Nov-12,18-Dec-09,18-Oct-10,18-Oct-11,18-Apr-10,18-Apr-11,18-Dec-10,18-Dec-11,18-Apr-12,18-Oct-12,18-Aug-10,18-Aug-11,18-Aug-12,18-Dec-12,18-Dec-09,18-Jun-10,18-Jun-11,18-Feb-11,18-Feb-12,18-Feb-10,18-Jun-12,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,
15、Dec-11,Sep-11,Apr-12,Jan-12,Aug-12,Oct-12,Oct-11,Sep-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,Sep-12,Oct-12,Nov-12,May-12,Aug-12,Dec-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,May-12,Dec-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,18-Dec-12,18-Jun-10,18-Jun-11,18-Jun-12,14 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChe
16、mical UpdateFigure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended January 5,2012(Week 1),%YoY,%Sequential,4-week moving averagePrior weekWeek endedPrior weekYTD 2012,(0.9%)1.3%(3.8%)(7.3%)(0.78%),(3.1%)(4.3%)(2.5%)(13.6%),Source:Association of American Railroads and Deutsche BankFigure 2:U.S.Ethylene P
17、roduction Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits,Weekly Avg.Cents/Pound,Change from Last Week,Purity EthanePropaneCo-Prod.Int.Lt.NaphthaButaneLight NaphthaGas OilWeighted Avg.Source:IHS Chemical,9.08.442.342.048.961.014.3,(0.8)(3.0)(2.3)(2.0)(2.1)1.5(1.1),Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(Nort
18、h America)c/gallon100908070605040302010Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 5:US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb)7570,Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America)c/gallon2001801601401201008060Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 6:US Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOBSpot Prices(c/lb)9080,657
19、060,555045,605040,403035,30Source:Bloomberg Finance LPPage 2,20Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Oct-11,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Nov-12,May-1998,May-1999,Aug-12,May-12,May-1995,May-1996,May-1997,May-2000,May-2001,May-2002,May-2003,May-2004,May-2005,May-2006,May-2007
20、,May-2008,May-2009,May-2010,May-2011,May-2012,Dec-12,Sep-11,Sep-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,14 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateFigure 7:Figure 8:China Acetic Acid Spot Prices(CNY/ton)450040003500300025002000Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Figure 8:US ethane-based eth
21、ylene production costs areadvantaged vs other regions(c/lb)605550454035302520151050,Figure 9:US ethane supply has been increasing steadilysince 2005(000 of bpd)11001000900800700600500400,Western US Ethane,US,US,US Light Northeast,West,Southeast,Canada,Weighted,Coprod,Naphtha,Asia,Europe,Asia,Average
22、,LightNaphtha,Naphtha Naphtha Naphtha,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 3,14 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar 2011).10Figure 26:US construction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and is beginningto show signs of improvement.11Figure 27:Private non-residential construction has sur
23、passed public non-residentialconstruction.11Figure 28:Household debt to asset ratio returning to trend levels.12Figure 29:Household Debt/GDP ratio also returning to trend levels.12Figure 30:Housing-related consumption remains well above homebuilder sentiment.12Figure 31:Housing starts appear to have
24、 bottomed and have ticked up in 2012.12Figure 32:Homebuilder sentiment index suggests that housing could add 1 percent toGDP over the next 12 months.13Figure 33:The homebuilder sentiment index suggests.13,Page 4,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,14 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical Up
25、dateFigure 34:Consumer purchasing plan:home.13Figure 35:Industry sentiment indicators trending up strongly.13Figure 36:Close to record-high levels of affordability.14Figure 37:Real resid investment contribution to real GDP growth.14Figure 38:components of residential investment that are adding to GD
26、P growth.14Figure 39:Traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.14Figure 40:Conference board consumer confidence survey:plans to buy a new home withinsix months.15Figure 41:US home prices rising steadily.15Figure 42:North American auto builds.16Figure 43:North American printed circuit board book-to-
27、bill ratio.16Figure 44:US Chemicals Shipments on Internal Waterways.17Figure 45:Chemicals Railcar Loadings,Capacity Utilization,and Industrial Production.17Figure 46:Growth in railcar loadings is ahead of industrial production.18Figure 47:ECRI Leading Index vs.Industrial Production.18Figure 48:Indus
28、trial Production vs.ISM PMI Index.18Figure 49:Industrial Production vs.ISM Mfg.New Orders.18Figure 50:Industrial Production vs.Conference Board Leading Indicators.18Figure 51:Conference Board Leading Indicators vs.Real GDP.18Figure 52:Chemicals sector multiples vs the yield curve.19Figure 53:A steep
29、er yield curve has previously led rising chemicals IP.19Figure 54:Eurozone confidence indicators.20Figure 55:ZEW German economic sentiment indicator(12mo m.avg.).20Figure 56:OECD Europe CLI vs Euro area Industrial Production.20,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Page 5,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,
30、28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,14 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateUS Chemicals Railcar DataFigure 10:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and cost,By tonnage(882MM tons),By cost*($40.0 bi
31、llion),RailTruckWaterbornePipeline,Air&Other,30%48%18%4%,20%67%10%3%,Source:American Chemistry Council.*Cost is cost of transportation,not value of product,2010 dataYear to date,chemical railcar loadings are down 0.8%Year to date,chemical railcar loadings are down approximately 0.8%.With ethanolcomp
32、rising approximately 21%of chemicals loadings and DoE blending up 10%(est.)in11,we estimate that ethanol is boosting 12 US chemicals railcar loadings by roughly2%.Figure 11:Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY)70%60%50%40%,30%20%10%0%(10%),Week 1,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep
33、,Oct,Nov,Dec,Chemicals railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Ethanol-driven Increase in loadings(estimated from blending,4-wk m.a.%YoY)Petroleum Products railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 12:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(2011-Present)33,0003
34、1,00029,00027,00025,000,23,000,Week 1,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep Oct,Nov,Dec,Source:Association of American RailroadsPage 6,2011,2012,2013,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,SequentialChange,-,-,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-13,Jan
35、-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-13,14 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical Update,Figure 13:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcarloadings(2011-Present)35%25%15%5%(5%),Figure 14:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2011-Presen
36、t)3432302826,(15%)(25%),Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Week 1Jun Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov Dec,2422,Week 1,2011,2012,2013,Jan Feb Mar2011,Apr May Jun Jul2012,Aug Sep Oct,NovDec2013,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 15:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings,%YoY(2000-Present)30%20%10%0%(10%)(
37、20%)(30%)(40%)Source:Association of American RailroadsDeutsche Bank Securities Inc.,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 16:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings(000s,2000-Present)32302826242220Source:Association of American RailroadsPage 7,-,-,-,-,-,-,14 January 2013Chemicals
38、/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateKey end market dataFigure 17:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets,Company3M,Auto&Transport11%,Construction4%,Electronics10%,CommentsIndustrial 25%;Healthcare 18%;Consumer 15%;Energy 3%,Safety&Security 14%,Air Products,15%,Energy 24%,Genl Mf
39、g 15%,Chemicals 17%,Metals 10%,Medical 7%,Food 3%,Others 10%,Airgas,2%,13%,Industrial Repair&Maintenance:27%Retail&,Wholesale:4%Other 3%Medical:9%;Food;6%;Analytical:2%Utilities:2%,Petrochemical:7%“Auto&Transport”is onlyTransport and no Auto,Albemarle,6%,9%,15%,Refining 32%,Pharma/Ag 12%,Industrial
40、10%,Packaging 9%,Oilfield 4%,Other 3%,Ashland,8%,17%,Coatings 6%,Lubricants 15%,Chemicals 5%,Pulp/paper 12%,Energy 3%,Regulated Ind 3%,Marine 4%,Infrastructure 2%,Packaging/converting 3%,Retail consumer 3%,Personal Care3%,Medical 2%,Others 14%,CabotCelanese,15%11%,10%3%,10%,Tire 45%;Others 20%Filter
41、 Media 22%;Paints Consumer&Medical,Apps 12%;Consumer Paper&Packaging 3%,Cytec,17%,47%,Chemical Processing:13%,Mineral Processing 7%;Plastic:4%;,Adhesives:3%;Other:9%“Auto&Transport”consists ofAutomotive only,DuPont,20%,10%,9%,Agriculture/food 21%;Food Ingred,Ref Other,packaging 3%;Chemicals/petchem
42、5%;Textile/apparel 5%;Plastics 3%;Other industrial 7%;Aerospace 4%;Paper 1%;Healthcare 1%;Personal care 3%.“Construction”includesresidential,commercial construction”,Ferro,10%,34%,21%,Appliances 8%;Containers 8%;Household furnishings 7%;,Industrial 6%;Others 6%,HB Fuller,10%,Adhesives:72%;Paints:8%;
43、Packaging:4%;Insulating glass:4%;Consumer:2%,LyondellBasell,7%,10%,Refining/Fuels:35%;Packaging:18%;Consumer:12%;Coatings:,4%;Textiles/Furnishings:4%;Other:10%.“Auto&Transport”consists of Transportation only.“Construction”consists of“Building&Construction”.,PPG,30%,27%,Consumer goods 21%;Industrial
44、goods 10%;Chemical products:,5%;Aerospace 4%;Marine 3%(Auto consists of OEM 19%,Auto aftermarket 11%),Praxair,7%,Manufacturing 24%;Chemicals 10%;Energy 13%;Food andBeverage 7%;Aerospace 2%;Healthcare 10%;Metals 16%;Other 11%,Rockwood Holdings,11%,13%,8.00%,Metal Treatment 17%;Chemicals/Plastics 14%;
45、Life Sciences,12%;Consumer Products 2%;Paper 2%;Environmental 2%;Other 8%,Valspar,3%,30%,Industrial 36%,Packaging 21%,Other 10%“Auto&Transport”is,automotive refinish and“Construction”is architectural paintsSource:Company data,Deutsche Bank estimates,Page 8,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,12/13E,70/71,
46、72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,14 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar millions of acres)10595857565554535,US Corn AcreageSource:Deutsche Bank,USDADeutsche Bank Securities Inc.,US Soy Acreage,Page 9,70/71,72/7
47、3,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,12/13E,12/13E,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,14 January 2013Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&Pe
48、troChemical Update,Figure 20:US Corn Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per acre)1801601401201008060Source:Deutsche Bank,USDAFigure 22:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons)MM Tons,Figure 21:US Soybean Yields(1970-2013E;bushels peracre)50454035302520Source:Deutsche Bank,USDAFigure 23:Arable Land Per CapitaAcres/Ca
49、pita,1200,1090,1.2,1000800,970,10.8,1.02,0.75,600,600,0.6,0.55,400,410,0.4,0.44,0.41,220,200,0.2,0,1965,1980,2000,2020E,2030E,0,1961,1980,2000,2020E,2030E,Source:Global InsightsFigure 24:Global Corn Yields by Country/Region(bu/acre;2011),Source:Global InsightsFigure 25:Global Corn Acreage by Region(
50、millions ofacres;2011),160,147,145,100,92,14012010080,129,126,119,98,84,78,68,9080706050,70,6040,37,4030,32,27,25,200,2010,10,9.5,6.5,4.5,3,0,Source:Global Insights,USDAPage 10,Source:Global Insights,USDA,Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,YoYchange,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,1
