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1、,Tetra Pak Dairy IndexA biannual news and informationsource about the dairy industryIssue 3 July 2010,ChangingGlobal Demographics,InsideLetter from the CEOChanging Global Demographics:Living Longer,Healthierand DifferentlyState of the IndustryMarket Spotlight:Pakistan,La,tin,fA,In,di,sia,Am,a,&,er,O
2、,ica,ce,&,an,Ea,th,ia,e,st,Ca,er,n,rib,Eu,be,ro,an,pe,&,th,e,D,ev,N,IS,el,*,op,ed,W,or,ld,a,ld,ric,a,ric,th,Af,or,W,ar,a,n,Sa,h,Su,b-,as,t&,N,or,Ch,Re,Af,in,a,N,ea,rE,st,o,4,0,2,5,2,0,1,5,1,0,0,5,0,1,Letter fromthe CEO,Dear Readers,Im pleased to present the third issue of the Tetra PakDairy Index,wh
3、ich focuses on changing populationsaround the world and how these changes areinfluencing our industry and will continue to do so.This Dairy Index highlights three worldwide demographicdrivers bringing about changes in lifestyle and consumption,Changing global demographics bringnew opportunities,in d
4、eveloped and developing countries:an ageingpopulation,urbanisation and a growing global middle class.Living longer,healthier and differentlyAlthough the impact of these drivers differs fromcountry to country,they present new and interestingopportunities for dairy producers everywhere to targetthe in
5、creasingly diversified needs of consumers asthey live longer,healthier and more varied lives.For example,dairy producers in many countries arebeginning to offer products that target people who areinterested in taking preventative health measures as they age.Meanwhile,as the number of city dwellers c
6、ontinuesto swell,dairy producers are benefiting from changinglifestyles which drive demand for more convenientproducts to suit increasingly busy,more mobile ways ofworking and living.At the same time,they are copingwith the logistical challenges of producing liquid dairyproducts(LDP)in rural areas a
7、nd distributing them incities,sometimes located hundreds of kilometres away.And finally,dairy producers in many developing countrieshave an eye on the global middle class,which is projected togrow from 430 million people in 2000 to 1.15 billion by 2030.During the next 10 to 15 years,developing count
8、ries suchas India,China and Brazil expect a significant percentage oftheir populations to become part of this group earningincomes which will enable them more easily to afford value-added products such as flavoured and fortified milk.These trends are currently shaping the dairy industryin Pakistan,t
9、he worlds fourth largest consumer ofLDP and the subject of our Market Spotlight.,In a changing world people are living longer than ever,with the number aged 60+expected to grow from 739million today to 2 billion by 2050.At the same time,more of us are calling cities,rather than rural areas,home:50%o
10、f the global population now live in citiesand 90%of future growth is expected to be in urbanareas.And while the gap between the poor and rich isat its widest,more of us are part of a new global middleclass which is expected to grow from 430 million in 2000to 1.5 billion in 2030,according to the Worl
11、d Bank.These demographic changes are set to significantly impactthe global dairy industry by influencing consumer lifestylesand food choices worldwide.This,in turn,will providenew challenges and opportunities for dairy producers particularly when it comes to products that meet thespecific needs of d
12、ifferent demographic groups.“Changing demographics will provide tremendousopportunities for the dairy industry to expand itscustomer base,”said Michael Zacka,Vice President,Marketing and Product Management,Tetra Pak.“Notonly will more people need the nutritional benefitsof milk,more people will be a
13、ble to afford it.”Three demographic drivers impact todays global dairy industryThere are several major demographic drivers that will continueto influence our everyday lives between now and 2020,according to recent research from Tetra Pak.Thisissue focuses on three:an ageing population,urbanisation a
14、nd an emerging global middle class.,Ageing populations will most rapidly impact developed1regions where the percentage of people 65+isincreasing at an annual rate of 1.6%,the fastest ever.Since 1970,worldwide life expectancy has risenby an average of four months per year,with womennow living an aver
15、age of 65 years and men 61 years,according to the United Nations.65+age group tops demographic growth globallyThe population 65+is growing faster and will continue to grow fasterthan any other demographic segment in every region of the world.Average annual growth rates(percentage)2002-2025 Total pop
16、ulationPopulation 65+3,53,0,About the Tetra Pak Dairy IndexThe Tetra Pak Dairy Index is a biannual report,which is designed to help dairy producers identify newopportunities for growth while offering all industrywatchers information on the latest facts,figuresand trends related to the global dairy i
17、ndustry.The data contained in this report are collectedfrom a variety of Tetra Pak and external sources andanalysed by Tetra Paks dairy market experts.TheTetra Pak Dairy Index also includes Tetra Paks analysisof the industry based on its day-to-day work withdairy customers,governments,non-government
18、alorganisations and local communities around the world,supporting every aspect of the dairy value chain.,Changing,but still growing steadilyEven during the worldwide financial crisis,globalconsumption of milk and other LDP continued to grow,increasing 1.8%from 2008 to 2009.Steady growth inLDP consum
19、ption is expected to continue worldwide rising by an estimated 2.4%compound annual growthrate(CAGR)from 2009 to 2012.This is up 0.2%on ourDecember 2009 forecast made during the economic crisis.Although demographic drivers may change the wayconsumers enjoy their LDP,one thing is certain:milk isan aff
20、ordable,nutritious food staple,which continuesto play a central role in diets all around the world.We hope you find this report useful and welcome yourcomments at.You can also findthe Tetra Pak Dairy Index at JnssonPresident and CEO Tetra Pak Group,Each driver affects different countries and regions
21、in different ways.For example,in many areas,such as WesternEurope,changing demographics are just beginning to havean impact on the dairy industry;in others,like Asia andthe Middle East,significant changes are already underway.In other countries,such as Kenya,there is as yetlittle impact but major ch
22、anges are expected.1.An ageing population:Different research studies segment older populationsin different ways;some select the 60+group,othersthe 65+group.However,the 60+group is the fastestgrowing segment in every region of the world,as aresult of lower birth rates and longer life expectancy.Devel
23、oped markets are defined as markets where at least 45%of the populationhas an annual purchasing power of more than USD5,000.This includes 43 countriesaround the world.,Source:U.S.Census Bureau,International Programs Center,Interrnational Data Base&unpublished tables.*NIS or Newly Independent States
24、refers to the independent nations that split from the formerSoviet Union in 1991.,2,Changing globaldemographics,2,3,30,32,30,24,26,27,23,14,The 60+population offers significant potentialfor dairy producers who can meet their specificneeds and aspirations.Importance of vitamin and mineral supplements
25、 grows with age%of consumers who say activity is important vs.%who often do it,New preventative health products target adults at different agesDairy producers are offering products that target those35+who are interested in taking preventative healthmeasures as they age.For example,CalciPlus,fromGree
26、k dairy producer FrieslandCampina Hellas,is aimedat those who are concerned about bone density losswhich is more likely to impact the 35+population.In Australia,Indonesia and Southeast Asia,a New Zealanddairy company,Fonterra,offers AnleneTM,a range ofproducts specially formulated to help adults mai
27、ntainoptimal bone strength.These products help providemost adults with the daily requirements of calcium,vitamin D and other nutrients,according to Fonterra.And in Mexico,the worlds seventh largest consumerof dairy products,Alpura offers 40ytantos,a fortifiedmilk positioned as a preventative health
28、product for people40+.Among other benefits,40ytantos offers omega3 fora healthy heart and various antioxidants to help avoidpremature ageing.Mexican dairy producer Alpura targets the 40+populationwith 40ytantos.,People in the developing world are growing oldertoo,but not as rapidly as in developed c
29、ountries.Today,they comprise 9%of the total population butthis is expected to double by 2050,to 1.6 billion.Producers appeal to younger tastesIn many developing countries,dairy producers arecurrently focused on creating special products for childrenand teenagers.One example is Vietnam,where LDPare n
30、ot part of the traditional diet but are growing fast.FrieslandCampina Vietnam has created flavoured milkproducts within their Dutch Lady brand and VinamilkV-Fresh smoothies in chocolate,strawberry and otherfruit flavours that appeal to younger tastebuds.Mexican dairy producers are following the same
31、 strategywith milk/juice blends similar to yoghurt drinks in flavourssuch as mango and pineapple.These products commandprices up to 15%higher than plain white milk.At the same time,in China,milk for children is drivingall milk sales because of its nutritional value.Salesof kids milk white milk with
32、added vitamins andnutrients for growing children doubled in volume in2009.Kids milk now represents a 4%market share in,20,20,the total white milk segment,and is helping to increasethe popularity of value-added white milk overall in,16,17,China.Sales are now 365 million litres a year.Dairies see futu
33、re in untapped segmentsDairy producers in many developing countries have notyet begun to target certain demographic groups becauseaffordability,availability and distribution concerns are takingtop priority.For example,in Kenya where 41.6%of the,15-19,20-29,30-39Important,40-49Do often,50-59,60+,popu
34、lation is under 14 producers are focused on supplyand demand and infrastructure issues,rather than marketsegmentation.However,the future opportunities are clear.,Source:GfK Roper Reports Worldwide,2009,based on a survey of 30,000 consumers age 15 and older in 25 countries.,“Although these are still
35、niche products and volumes aresmall,we would expect them to grow rapidly in line withdemographic drivers,”said Michael Zacka.“For example,in Mexico from 2007 to 2009,value-added white milkproducts grew by 30%,despite the economic recession.However,these products still only represent around 5%ofMexic
36、os total commercial ready to drink(RTD)white milkmarket,which leaves plenty of opportunity for growth.”,Helen Too,Marketing Director and Product DevelopmentManager,Tetra Pak Kenya,commented:“Young peopleare quite aspirational.Still,affordability is key.They wantinnovative,new products that specifica
37、lly meet their needsand are different from adult products.In Kenya,consumersare used to drinking unpasteurised milk fresh from localdairy sources.We are encouraging small producers toget together in Dairy Hubs where a central point of,Aging population uses more vitaminand mineral supplementsAfter 40
38、-years-old,around 30%of consumers considervitamins and minerals very important compared tothose age 15 to 39,according to GfK Roper ReportsWorldwide.Usage also increases with age.In fact,in Japan,supplements for everything from anti-ageing to helpingwith weak joints have been popular for years among
39、the 60+population,according to Tetra Pak Japan.,something nice to eat or drink”ranks as the second mostpopular indulgence among people 60+and the thirdmost popular among the general population,accordingto data from GfK Roper Reports Worldwide.In addition,59%of the global 60+population is concerned a
40、bout foodsafety compared with 53%of the general population.“The 60+population offers significant potential fordairy producers who can meet their specific needs and,Developing world becomes more youthfulHigh fertility rates mean that in the future developingcountries populations will contain a large
41、percentage ofyounger people.For example,in Pakistan,the worlds fourthlargest consumer of dairy products,53%are currently under 19.,collection and storage makes it viable for milk processingcompanies to access the milk in reasonable volumes forhygienic processing and sale.The significant,untappedoppo
42、rtunities for reaching our young people with moreproducts specifically designed for our youth are verymuch in the front of our minds,but can only be deliveredonce we have achieved our goal of getting the majorityof the milk supply into the official processing stream.”,aspirations,”said Zacka.“This i
43、ncludes both products that,4,When it comes to food and drinks,consumers 60+arealso more likely to view food as a special treat and tobe concerned about food safety.For example,“having,cater to healthy lifestyles,such as fortified milk productswith added calcium,vitamins and minerals and productsthat
44、 can be positioned as occasional indulgences.”,5,LitresofLDPsconsumedannually,Population(millions),12,10,8,6,4,2,2003,6000.0,5000.0,4000.0,3000.0,2000.0,1000.0,Health benefits and lifestyles outweigh labels,Chinese city dwellers consume more LDP,Recent research from Tetra Pak Germany demonstratestha
45、t people 50+do not want to be seen as ageing,seniors or elderly.For example,in Japan,where 22%ofpeople are 65+,dairy producers focus not on age but onthe health benefits of products,such as those helpingto reduce cholesterol or decrease blood pressure.“The 60+population in many countries will have m
46、ore time,more money and more education than ever before.Theyllalso be fitter,more active and more vibrant,”said Tetra PakGlobal Marketing Director Chris Kenneally.“Marketerswho will do well will be those who can talk to this growingpopulation group about lifestyles not ailments.”2.Urbanisation:Today
47、,3.25 billion people around the world live in urbanareas;by 2050 this number is expected to increase to 6billion,according to the United Nations.Countries likeArgentina,Brazil and South Korea are already highlyurbanised,with more than 80%of the population living incities.Urban populations in Asia an
48、d Africa are expected,Dairy producers find new ways tomeet needs of lactose intolerantFrom Australia to Europe to Latin America,the number of people perceived to be lactoseintolerant or unable to metabolise the sugarfound in milk products is on the rise.Dairycompanies globally are developing alterna
49、tive“lactose-free”products targeted at this segment.Some are even developing products for people whothink they are lactose intolerant,but are not.Theyjust have trouble digesting one of the proteinsfound in milk.Thats the case in Australia,where A2 Dairy Productsdeveloped the A2 milk product,made wit
50、h theoriginal milk protein or A2 beta casein protein.“Its the fastest growing milk in the white milkcategory with a 400%increase in sales over thelast three years,”said Peter Nathan,ExecutiveGeneral Manager of the company.,City dwellers in China consume significantly more LDP than their village peer
