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1、宝洁战略管理模型,Choice Cascade to Define the Choices选择级别以确定选择,What are our goals and Aspirations?,Where willwe Play?,WhatCapabilitiesmust be inplace to win?,How will we Win inchosen market?,WhatManagementSystems arerequired?,我们有哪些目标和愿望,我们要做些什么？,我们将如何赢得市场,我们需要什么样的管理系统,实现双赢的需要什么样的能力,Choice Cascade to Define
2、the Choices选择级别以确定选择,What are our goals and Aspirations?,Where willwe Play?,WhatCapabilitiesmust be inplace to win?,How will we Win inchosen market?,WhatManagementSystems arerequired?,我们有哪些目标和愿望,我们要做些什么？,我们将如何赢得市场,我们需要什么样的管理系统,实现双赢的需要什么样的能力,Re-cap on lecture 1,Where will we play?Total Shareholder Re
3、turn calculations by Global Business Unit全球范围内的股东总回报率的计算How will we win?Commercial Strategy我们要如何赢？商业战略Focus on core brandsConsumer Is BossWin with winning customers Competitive retail margins strong Tailor Investments By Customer Be Strong With Global CustomersGet the value equation rightKnow the co
4、mpetitorsWhat capabilities must be in place?能力的定位（需要什么样的能力定位）Global matrix structure:Global Business Units(GBUs)and Market Development Organizations(MDOs)Individual accountability,Work&Development Plans,专注于核心品牌消费者才是老板赢得顾客零售利润率的竞争力量身打造投资客户全球客户获得价值模式了解竞争对手,全球矩阵结构：全球业务单位（gbus）及市场组织（mdos）个人责任制，工作与发展计划,H
5、OMEWORK,What share of shelf does YES have?市场占有率？What do you think it has in market share?你怎么看市场上的占有率？What do you learn from the pricing and sizing you see?Why might it be so?从价格和数量上看出什么？为什么会是这样呢？What influences the shelf positioning?是什么影响产品的定位？What would your YES strategy be?你的对应策略是什么？,HOMEWORK,What
6、 share of shelf does YES have?Ca.60%大约60 What do you think it has in market share?Same as shelf share(60-70%)占市场分额（6070）What do you learn from the pricing and sizing you see?Why might it be so?为什么会这样？Smaller sizes offer“extra benefits,but are more expensive pr.ml What influences the shelf positionin
7、g?是什么影响产品的定位Looks like the big bottles are at the bottom看起来像一个巨大的瓶底（瓶劲效应）What would your YES strategy be?您的策略是什么,Choice Cascade to Define the Choices,What are our goals and Aspirations?,Where willwe Play?,WhatCapabilitiesmust be inplace to win?,How will we Win inchosen market?,WhatManagementSystems
8、arerequired?,我们有哪些目标和愿望,我们要做些什么？,我们将如何赢得市场,我们需要什么样的管理系统,实现双赢的需要什么样的能力,Implementing strategy 实施策略First:Understanding the customer第一：了解客户,HOW WILL WE WIN?,Retail is still fragmentedShare of top 50 public companies,19981998年零售业占有率前50家的企业,Energy能源,Automotive汽车,Pharmaceuticals;diagnostics医药,Electronics电子
9、,Telecom电信,Packaged goods包装,Financial industries金融,Chemicals化工,Retail零售,Source:Global Vantage;McKinsey,Energy能源,Financialinstitutions金融,Automotive汽车,Retail零售,Packagedgoods包装,Electronics电子,Average number of countries of operation for largest companies(1998)国家运作的大公司,Note:Largest companies defined by t
10、otal revenue注：公司所确定的总的收入来源Source:Hoovers;McKinsey资料来源：,Retailing is still local零售业的地方性,HOW WILL WE WIN?,一些全球性的大公司是由国家运作的,*Only disclosed deal considerations in excess of USD 25 millionSource:Amdata;Thomson Financial Securities;McKinsey analysis,Non-European cross-border非欧洲跨境,European cross-border欧洲跨
11、境,Domestic国内,Growing European M&A activities in Retail在欧洲零售业的收购活动越来越多USD b,deal volume*使用美元b,交易量*,2.9,9.3,12.0,0.7,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,12.4,1999 to September,16.0,只披露交易的考虑超过美元2500万料来源：amdata;汤姆森金融证券;麦肯锡分析,There is a war out there矛盾,Demand需求,Flat/falling share of walletFlat/falling pricesMore de
12、manding and complex consumersShifting lifestyle and work patterns,Supply供给,OvercapacityNew entrants(e-tailers and retailers)Supplier consolidationLow availability/rising cost of frontline labourIncreasing real estate costs,Power shifting to consumers,Internet is accelerating trends,Source:McKinsey,H
13、OW WILL WE WIN?我们将如何赢？,单位/份额下降单位/价格下跌更为艰巨和复杂的消费者转变生活方式和工作格局,过剩新加入者（电子零售商和零售商）供应商整合低可用性/成本上升的人工越来越多的场地费用,权力转移给消费者,互联网加速发展趋势,Sweden瑞典,Most consolidated retail market in the world the BIG are already BIG成为在世界上多数固定的零售市场中较大的 ICA owned 50%by AholdICA拥有AHOLD50Ahold highly financially driven company EVAAHOL
14、E是财务高度至上的公司EVAMore pressure on ICAmore pressure on suppliers在ICA更多的压力在供应商Wants higher profits,higher turnover,happier consumers(differentiate themselves vs.Competition)想要更高的利润更高的营业额和更多的消费者（不同于主场迎战竞争）,HOW WILL WE WIN?我们将如何赢？,Now we know the customercan we find a sweet spot?我们现在知道了客户我们可以找到一个最佳的方法？,How
15、 will we win?我们将如何赢Consumer is the BOSSCore BrandsWin with winning customers Competitive retail margins strong Tailor Investments By Customer Be Strong With Global CustomersHow will we win Sweet Spot?我们如何赢得最佳的方法Launch a product,with unique consumer benefits,with higher customer margins,that drive to
16、tal TSR for P&G推出一个产品，具有独特的消费者得益，为宝洁获得更高的客户利润率,专注于核心品牌消费者才是老板赢得顾客零售利润率的竞争力量身打造投资客户全球客户获得价值模式了解竞争对手,Having the right capabilities有正确的能力,P&G tries to mirror how the customer worksWe work in multifunctional teams,to address complex business issuesIn a matrix organisation individual accountability is KE
17、Y,宝洁试图像一面镜子试进行顾客服务我们的工作，在多功能团队，以解决复杂的商业问题在矩阵组织，个人责任制是关键,Global Ahold Customer Team OverviewAHOLD全球团队,P&G,Ahold,Global Team全球团队Teamleader(VP)&MultifunctionalBased in Rotterdam总部设在鹿特丹,Regional TeamsUSA,Europe,Latin America,andAsia区域小组美国，欧洲，拉丁美洲和亚洲,Regional Customer HQ区域客户总部,Ahold Managementin Zaandam,
18、Local Teams-ICA/Hakon(Ahold Nordic)-Teamleader&multifunctional team当地专家队伍-ica/hakon（阿霍德北欧）-teamleader 多功能团队,Local CustomersICA/Hakon本地客户国际合作社联盟/hakon,Local Nordic Team北欧团队,Sales:Teamleader,Key account managers销售：teamleader，重点客户经理Finance财务Marketing市场营销Logistics物流Customer marketing客户营销Order group,back
19、 office support治安组后勤支持,Everyone on the team knows their role in the GOAL&whatthey are MEASURED on to SUCCEED每个人清楚他们在团队中的作用，用最终目标的实现来衡量他们的成功,Local Nordic Team accountability北欧团队职责,Sales:Teamleader,Key account managersVolume,Share,Cost to serveFinanceCustomer profit,effecient spendingMarketingShare,ba
20、sket size,traffic,category shareLogisticsShelf availability,perfect orders,inventoriesOrder group,back office supportPerfect Orders,leadtimes,no overdues,销售：teamleader，重点客户经理数量，共享，成本，服务财务客户利润，高效率的消费市场营销市场占有率，贸易，物流货架供货，完善订单，存货治安组，后勤支持完善的订单，交货期，没有逾期,Control Systems控制系统,FinancialSales FundamentalsIndiv
21、idual PerformanceAction steps,金融销售基本面个人业绩流程步骤,Reminder:OGSM提示：OGSM,What?,How?,我们将会怎样实现我们的目标。它必须是一个具体决定而不只是一个战略。一个真正好的策略，是一套一项或一项以上的报表，每一项都只是一个具体的决定,P&G Measures:e.g.Yes Aroma Launch宝洁的措施：,Objective:目的Secure market leadership within hand-dish by offering consumers the best value and by being the pref
22、erred supplier of hand-dish to leading customers争取市场的领导地位，另一方面，为提供消费者最佳的价值，并作为首选设备供应商Goals(note:not actual numbers):目标（注：非实际数据）Grow volume by 5%Deliver$1,433 M of value contribution to the companyReach 90%distribution in 3 months on AromaReach 80%share of shelf,增长量5 交付1433美元的价值贡献给公司达90 以上分布在3个月内达到百分
23、之八十的份额,P&G Measures:e.g.Yes Aroma Launch,Strategies策略 launch flankers which:Match unmet consumer preferencesGrow total trade profitability on Yes brand increase consumer and customer marketing spend year 1 to secure trial use displays to get fast distribution early in year do not increase current le
24、vel and depth of promotionsMeasurements测量Volume:daily shipment reports by customer成交量：由客户提供每天的装运报告 Shares by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen data股份公司的产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森数据Market prices by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen data 市场价格是由产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森数据Budgets:actuals versus commitments
25、;$/unit算：实银两承诺;元/单位 Value contribution(Brand/Product/Country):monthly Brand Profit Estimates(BPEs)企业价值贡献（品牌/产品/国家）：每月的品牌利润估计（bpes）,启动两项：1找寻消费者未满足的喜好 2成长，贸易总额的盈利能力是品牌使用监控系统，以获当年得快速分布不增加现有水平和深度促销,FINANCIAL FIRM,3.59,-,(10.0%),NORDIC CONTRIBUTION,1 503,15.03,40.3%,1 433,13.65,38.0%,Annual Growth rate,9
26、0,-10%,95,-5%,Yes Aroma Launch,MeasurementsVolume:daily shipment reports by customerShares by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen dataSales Fundamentals by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen data Budgets:actuals versus commitmentsValue contribution(Brand/Product/Country):monthly Bra
27、nd Profit Estimates(BPEs),测量成交量：每天装运报告股份公司的产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森数据,销售基础产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森数据预算：实银两承诺企业价值贡献（品牌/产品/国家）：每月的品牌利润估计（bpes,Volume Tracking,daily report by customer/brand on intranet look into database for shipments by product,Total Shipment days,23,Act shipments days gone,11,Act time gone(of month),48%
28、,BRAND,vs.EST,Todays,Order,Avg Bal Ship,to FIRM,EST,ORDERED,Ariel,xx%,xx,Bold,xx%,xx,Total Fabric Care,xx%,xx,Febreze,xx%,xx,Swiffer,xx%,xx,Mr Proper,xx%,xx,Yes/Fairy HD,7.9,13.0,3.9,30%,0.3,Yes/Fairy ADW,xx%,xx,Total Home Care,xx%,xx,F&HC Total,xx%,xx,NORDIC,Volume Tracking,0,0,.,0,0,0,0,.,0,e.g.Ar
29、oma displays are not selling as forecasted why?,Yes Aroma Launch,MeasurementsVolume:daily shipment reports by customerShares by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen dataSales Fundamentals by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen data Budgets:actuals versus commitmentsValue contribution(
30、Brand/Product/Country):monthly Brand Profit Estimates(BPEs),测量成交量：每天装运报告股份公司的产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森数据,销售基础产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森数据预算：实银两承诺企业价值贡献（品牌/产品/国家）：每月的品牌利润估计（bpes,Shares Tracking,3.1,2.8,NOPA.,3.3,3.7,3.3,3.0,3.3,3.2,3.0,2.9L,e.g.Aroma is cannibalizing as expected.,Yes Aroma Launch,MeasurementsVolume:daily s
31、hipment reports by customerShares by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen dataSales Fundamentals by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen data Budgets:actuals versus commitmentsValue contribution(Brand/Product/Country):monthly Brand Profit Estimates(BPEs),测量成交量：每天装运报告股份公司的产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森
32、数据,销售基础产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森数据预算：实银两承诺企业价值贡献（品牌/产品/国家）：每月的品牌利润估计（bpes,Sales Fundamentals Tracking,and also display WD,feature share,shelf share,etc.,YES AROMA-APPLE,Price Per Unit Without Promo(SFT),P12M,P6M,nov,dec,jan,vs NGLAMARK,TOTAL SWEDEN,35.1,34.9,34.5,34.7,34.9,102%,AXFOOD TOTAL,35.6,34.4,34.3,33.5
33、,33.9,98%,AXFOOD FRANCHISE,37.6,37.5,37.6,36.3,36.2,99%,D&D DISCOUNT,31.8,30.9,30.5,30.8,30.7,99%,VIVO STOCKHOLM,40.7,40.1,41.0,36.2,41.2,97%,BERGENDAHL DETALJIST,32.7,32.7,32.3,31.2,33.4,105%,YES AROMA-APPLE,Weighted distribution(SFT),P12M,P6M,nov,dec,jan,vs NGLAMARK,TOTAL SWEDEN,95.9,98.2,97.0,98.
34、0,98.0,AXFOOD TOTAL,87.7,97.8,98.0,98.0,100.0,100%,AXFOOD FRANCHISE,72.0,95.7,93.0,90.0,99.0,97%,D&D DISCOUNT,81.7,97.2,100.0,100.0,100.0,99%,VIVO STOCKHOLM,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,102%,BERGENDAHL DETALJIST,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,102%,e.g.Aroma has high shares where displayed,A note on c
35、ompetition,Competitive Response ModelingExpected competitive responseSequence of actions+their NPVs determine optimal strategy竞争回应建模预期竞争反应的行动顺序+他们npvs确定最佳战略Which games will we play?E.g.always match competitions promotion depthE.g.never do in-store coupons哪些游戏我们可以玩？例如：比赛的深入推广例如：在店内消费券,Possible Explan
36、ations,Consumer value equation?Is price premium too high?Did we overestimate demand for Aroma products?most likely OK;off-take high where distributed+repurchase rate high消费者价值公式？是溢价过高？我们高估需求香气的产品呢？-最有可能确定;场外采取高的地方派发+回购利率高企Organizational capability Do we have enough sales rep coverage?Does Yes have p
37、riority in sales cycle?yes,but many store owners are rejecting组织能力我们是否有足够的推销员覆盖？确实是有优先销售周期？是的，但许多店家都拒绝 Commercial strategy is trade margin recommended too low?Is value for customer not clearly defined?商业战略是交易保证金推荐太低呢？是价值，为用户没有明确界定呢？,Possible explanation:store owners not clear on added value do not w
38、ish to replace products,do not have more space in store for more products,and do not want complexity of more codes in system解释：店家并不清晰附加值-不想取代产品，没有更多的空间储存更多的产品，以及不想复杂的多码系统,Yes Aroma Launch,MeasurementsVolume:daily shipment reports by customerShares by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen dataS
39、ales Fundamentals by product and customer:Weekly/Monthly Nielsen data Budgets:actuals versus commitmentsValue contribution(Brand/Product/Country):monthly Brand Profit Estimates(BPEs)测量成交量：每天装运报告股份公司的产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森数据销售基础产品和客户：每周/每月尼尔森数据预算：实银两承诺企业价值贡献（品牌/产品/国家）：每月的品牌利润估计（bpes）how do we reflect new for
40、ecast and what do we do?我们应该如何反映新的预测和我们该做什么？,Budget Tracking,PROCTER&GAMBLE NORDIC,Budget Control,Total MDA*,SPENT,BUD,ACT,COM,SPENT,vs BUD,(MUSD),(MUSD),(MUSD),(MUSD),(%),Yes/Fairy HD,100,18,18,35,35%,Yes/Fairy ADW,100,28,28,55,55%,Febreze,100,46,46,93,93%,Swiffer,100,64,64,128,128%,Total HOME,400,
41、156,156,311,45%,Pringles,100,23,23,46,46%,Critical part in decision whether to continue strategy Launch based on tight economics($/ml)do we cut budgets or increase them if volumes are not coming in?how sensitive is the NPV?Expect front spending during launch,but possibilities of cutting Q4 support,F
42、INANCIAL TRACKING Brand Profit Estimates&Reconciliations,explain difference vs.estimate by volume,mix effect,budgets,exchange rates,and trade terms available by product and country consolidated across GBUs and MDOs in SAP R/3 to make our quarterly report to Wall Street,$M,$/ml,Delta%,4 000,40.00,Mix
43、 effect,10,0.3%,0.10,0.3%,Volume effect,100,2.5%,Exchange Rate effect,-10,-0.3%,-0.10,-0.2%,4 100,2.5%,40.00,0.0%,$M,$/ml,Delta%,3 725,37.25,Mix Effect,10,0.3%,0.10,0.3%,Volume effect,100,2.7%,Exchange Rate effect,-10,-0.3%,-0.10,-0.3%,Customer budget effect,-50,-1.3%,-0.05,0.1%,Consumer budget effe
44、ct,-5,-0.1%,-0.01,0.0%,3 770,1.2%,37.31,0.2%,Net Real Reconciliation,NOS Reconciliation,ACTION STEPS:行动步骤E.g.September BPE例如9月的BPE,We are below volume target.我们下面的具体目标Sales fundamentals show that we are low on distribution(price and share where in store on target).销售基本面表明，我们是低的分布（价格和分享在店目标）Repurchas
45、e rate is high among consumer the product works.回购利率是高消费产品工程。Only 175 of estimated 300 displays of Aroma have been sold store owners reluctant to take in new product.估计300只有175售出店主不愿承担新产品 Brand team meets with Sales teams to discuss possible actions.品牌团队与销售团队交流，讨论可能采取的行动,ACTION STEPS:行动步骤E.g.Septemb
46、er BPE,We take back budget commitments wholly based on volume,this money can be made available for re-investment.我们收回预算的承诺全出货量为基础，这笔钱可以供再投资。Decision:distribution and year-1 volume is vital.We need to re-deploy funds for a display-drive.决定：分布和今年1是至关重要的。我们需要重新调配资金，供驱动。Try one-time irresistible offer w
47、ith new trade leaflet specifying rationale behind Yes Aroma.尝试一次性不可阻挡的offerEffect on contribution:higher customer marketing budgets%NOS,but reach critical volume and trial in year 1.对贡献：在第1年高级客户营销预算的数，达到临界数量和试验New financials are communicated to GBU via Brand Profit Estimate.Full reconciliations are
48、sent by Finance.派出财务充分对帐，将新的财务状况传达给gbu通过品牌获利预估,PERFORMANCE TRACKINGAccountability,Accountability examples:职责的例子 country GM value contribution and flow;external relations,organization国家通用汽车-企业价值贡献和流量;对外关系，组织 GBU GM P/L(incl.Production+logistics costs,all overheads),inventorygbu通用汽车-/升（含生产+物流成本，所有间接成本
49、），存货 market planner forecast accuracy,%availability市场企划-预报准确率，供货 brand team leader contribution,volume,shares,organization品牌团队领导人-贡献，数量，股权，组织 customer team leader volume,sales fundamentals,organization消费团队-量，销售基本面，组,PERFORMANCE TRACKINGWork&Development Plans执行追踪工作及发展计划,once per year feedback from ma
50、nagers,direct reports,colleagues每年一次-反馈，向经理直接报告How has work plan been delivered?How has person developed organization?如何界定工作计划已经交付？如何开发人员的组织安排？Strengths+weaknesses set development plan with manager强项+弱点-经理设定的发展计划Basis for promotion timings+salary level促进时序+工资水平,PERFORMANCE TRACKING,FIRM,FY 99/00,FY
