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1、2012/10/4,2012/11/4,2012/12/4,2012/1/4,2012/2/4,2012/3/4,2012/4/4,2012/5/4,2012/6/4,2012/7/4,2012/8/4,2012/9/4,2013/1/4,2013,1,2013,1,31,GDP,52%,2012,GDP80%+,50%,021-S1010510120001,12,2012,12,15.2%20128%9%,10,/1114.3%,14.5%/14.9%Q4,Q312,021-68761622yu_,12,12,/,1.0,3.0ppt,25%20%,300,CS,14.5%15.0%,201
2、3,4ppt,/CPI,15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%,2012,2012Q4/2013Q1,-25%-30%,2012,15%,50%,2012Q4,1.,2013,2013,2013,15x,/,2.,.2012-12-12IT,.2013-01-043.2012-10-18,A,4.,(6808.HK)Secularly-growing market leader,30.0325.648.87,11N0.940.610.81,EPS12E1.250.650.68,13E2.010.900.74,14E2.451.260.96,11N324211,PE12E243913
3、,13E152812,14E12209,PEG0.851.070.69,40.030.011.0,5.,amid rapid nationwide expansion.2013-01-18(0848.HK)Cross-regional expansion viadevelopment of complexes,A,11.3722.1713.719.9057.94,0.651.020.880.520.81,0.741.230.810.641.37,0.881.500.930.801.76,1.111.901.120.942.36,1722161972,1518171542,1315151233,
4、1012121125,0.900.941.860.871.67,16.328.316.7413.061.6,.2013-01-17,2013/1/30,12,/,2013,2013,1,2,+,15,17,18,2013,1,.3,2012,.3.6.7.7,12,12,15.2%,Q4,.7.8,12,/,/,.9,.1014.5%.11.12.14.14.14,GDPGDP,1952-20111978-2012,.3.3,3,GDP,2011,91.5%.4,456789,GDPGDPGDP,/,GDP70,80.4%.480%.4.435%.51952-2011).571.2%.5,10
5、11 1979121314,GDP,5000902012,.6.6.6.72009-2012.7,.7,16 2010,.8.8.8,19,20,22,23,27,28,29,30,1,2,3,5,2013,1,.8.9,2126 50,3000,.9.9.9.10.10.11.111995-2012.11,31,GDP,1995Q1-2012Q3,.12,32 2013,TTM PE,.14,33 2012,.14.9.12,2012,2013Q1,.13,4,PE,.14.15,1952,1954,1956,1958,1960,1962,1964,1966,1968,1970,1972,1
6、974,1976,1978,1980,1982,1984,1986,1988,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,1978,1979,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,1,2012,2012 GDP,7.8%,1.4,G
7、DP1,51.8%,GDP,50.4%1952-2011,90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%,Wind,GDP:,GDP:,GDP:,49.2%48.2%2.6%,2,GDP,1978-2012,GDP,:,GDP,:,GDP,:,100%,80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,Wind,50.4%51.8%-2.2%,2011,/,/,48.2%/49.2%/2.6%,80%50.1%,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011
8、,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,1980,1981,1982,1983,1984,1985,1986,1987,1988,1989,1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,1929,1931,1933,1935,1937,1939,1941,1943,1945,1947,1949
9、,1951,1953,1955,1957,1959,1961,1963,1965,1967,1969,1971,1973,1975,1977,1979,1981,1983,1985,1987,1989,1991,1993,1995,1997,1999,2001,2003,2005,2007,2009,2011,2013,1,83.6%/76.6%/80%,GDP,3,GDP,2011,%,91.5%,%,%,120.0%,100.0%80.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%-20.0%,Wind,91.5%12.3%-3.8%,4,GDP,80.4%,90.0%80.0%70.0%60
10、.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%,Wind,%,%,%,80.4%20.5%-0.9%,5,GDP,80%,6,GDP,%,90.0%80.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%,%,%,79.0%,100.0%90.0%80.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%,91.5%80.4%48.2%,40.0%,40.0%,30.0%20.0%10.0%,19.5%1.5%,30.0%20.0%10.0%,0.0%,Wind,15%20%,35%,0.0%,Wind,13%,55%70%,1970,GDP,5000,10,pct,2011,1952,1952,
11、1954,1954,1956,1956,1958,1960,1958,1960,1962,1962,1964,1966,1968,1970,1972,1964,1966,1968,1970,1972,1974,1974,1976,1978,1980,1982,1976,1978,1980,1982,1984,1986,1988,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,1984,1986,1988,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,2010,1929,1931,
12、1933,1935,1937,1939,1941,1943,1945,1947,1949,1951,1953,1955,1957,1959,1961,1963,1965,1967,1969,1971,1973,1975,1977,1979,1981,1983,1985,1987,1989,1991,1993,1995,1997,1999,2001,2003,2005,2007,2009,2011,2013,1,71.2%2011,1975,GDP 500060%,2011,GDP,5400,780%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%8100%90%80%,GDPWind,/
13、,GDP:GDP:,35%1952-2011),GDP:GDP:,49.2%34.9%13.3%2.6%,28%,70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Wind,9,70,%,%,71.2%,%,%,90.0%80.0%70.0%60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%20.0%,1970,GDP,5000,201148000,71.2%,GDP,71.2%20.3%,10.0%0.0%-10.0%-20.0%,Wind,12.3%,1980,1982,1984,1986,1988,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,2008,19
14、62,1967,1972,1977,1982,1987,1992,1997,2002,2007,2011,2010,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,/,204.2,150,150.6,129.2,100,20.0%,47.8,0,0.0%,20.0%,15.0%,10.0%,5.0%,0.0%,2013,1,10,GDP,5000%,%,70.0%60.0%,%,%,60%,50.0%,1975,GDP,5000,40.0%,30.0%20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%,Wind,21%,1
15、1 1979,CAGR%CAGR%,12YoY(%),90,30.0%25.0%,350300,53.9%,58.8%,400,70.0%60.0%,250 218.550.0%49.0%200 180.9191.7 40.0%166.222.4%30.0%111.475.992.9 15.9%16.6%50 32.1 19.9%8.8%6.5%7.0%10.0%20.9 10.4%6.0%Euromonitor,2004A,2005A,2006A,2007A,2008A,2009A,2010A,2011A,2012M1-M9,5.2%,2013,1,13,2012,14,+,2009-201
16、2,/,%,+,“,”,6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.2%2.6%,3.1%,/%4.1%4.4%3.6%3.6%3.0%2.1%,4.8%5.1%4.3%,250200150,191,2.0%,1.3%,1.0%0.3%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.0%,10050,52,0.5,9.36,0,2009,2010,2011,2012,15Mall,1212,+15.2%,ODM/OEM,/,2010(1-2),2011(1-2),2012(1-2),2010/03,2010/04,2010/05,2010/06,2010/07,2010/08,2010/09,2010/10,2010/1
17、1,2010/12,2011/03,2011/04,2011/05,2011/06,2011/07,2011/08,2011/09,2011/10,2011/11,2011/12,2012/03,2012/04,2012/05,2012/06,2012/07,2012/08,2012/09,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,2011/03,2011/04,2011/05,2011/06,2011/07,2011/08,2011/09,2011/10,2011/11,2011/12,2011(1-2),2012(1-2),2012/04,2012/05,2012/06,2012/0
18、7,2012/08,2012/09,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,2012/03,2010(1-2),2010/03,2010/04,2010/05,2010/06,2010/07,2010/08,2010/09,2010/10,2010/11,2010/12,2011(1-2),2011/03,2011/04,2011/05,2011/06,2011/07,2011/08,2011/09,2011/10,2011/11,2011/12,2012(1-2),2012/03,2012/04,2012/05,2012/06,2012/07,2012/08,2012/09,2012
19、/10,2012/11,2012/12,-1.14%,-3.5%,0.70%,0.10%,-2%,-2.20%,-3.30%-3.30%,-4.30%,-4.50%,-5.08%,-6.30%,-7.30%,%,-2%,-4%,-6%,-8%,2%,0%,2013,1,2012/10/11,12,14.2%/14.5%/14.9%,20334Q3,15.2%,2012,9,207167,14.3%,12,17.7%,2011,10.8ppt 1-12,17.8%,2011,5.6ppt,18,2012,6,2011,16,2010,2012,12,17,2011,12,%,20%19%18%1
20、7%16%15%14%,%11 1218.10%,11 1213.78%,%,1215.20%,35%30%25%20%,2011-12,28.51%,%2012-12,17.68%,13%,12%11%10%18,12,1213.50%,15%10%,19,0.0%-0.5%-0.60%-0.60%-1.0%-0.70%-1.00%-1.40%-1.40%-1.44%-2.0%-1.76%-2.5%-2.10%-2.20%-3.0%-3.00%,-1.5%-1.40%-1.10%,-3.10%,-2.40%-2.70%-2.90%-3.50%,-1.80%,0.40%-0.30%,-6.00
21、%,-7.70%,-4.80%-4.80%-6.90%,-3.80%-4.14%,-4.0%-4.5%8.9%/8.5%,12,-3.80%-4.00%-4.10%7.5/0.3ppt,Q412,-10%-12%12,/3000,Q4,-10.83%,3000,Q4,8.6%,Q3,8.1%,0.5ppt,2011(01-02),2012(01-02),2011-03,2011-04,2011-05,2011-06,2011-07,2011-08,2011-09,2011-10,2011-11,2011-12,2012-03,2012-04,2012-05,2012-06,2012-07,20
22、12-08,2012-09,2012-10,2012-11,2012-12,03/10,04/10,05/10,06/10,07/10,08/10,09/10,10/10,11/10,12/10,01/11,02/11,03/11,04/11,05/11,06/11,07/11,08/11,09/11,10/11,11/11,12/11,01/12,02/12,03/12,04/12,05/12,06/12,07/12,08/12,09/12,10/12,11/12,12/12,11(01-02),11/03,11/04,11/05,11/06,11/07,11/08,11/09,11/10,
23、11/11,11/12,12/03,12/04,12/05,12/06,12/07,12/08,12/09,12/10,12/11,12/12,10.1,18.00,18.30,18.60,17.60,17.40,19.20,15.30,15.70,10.20,8.50 8.50,2013,1,20,(%),21,3000,(%),35.0,(%),30.00,3000,30.025.020.015.010.05.0,29.028.7,29.023.521.0,25.5,22.2,27.818.316.0,20.811.97.7,16.811.0,15.87.4,8.4,7.8,16.408.
24、90,25.0020.0015.0010.00,17.00,17.80,18.8019.10,26.6019.5019.00,15.40 15.00 14.4014.70 13.5013.00,8.30 8.70 8.108.30 7.90 7.80 8.00,8.808.50,0.0,CEIC,5.000.00,Wind,2.30,12,/,/,/,/,/,12,19.6%/16.5%/16.4%/9.7%,5.1/0.8/4.2/1.6ppt,2011,12,22%,23%,30.0,:,:,60.0,:,:,:,25.020.015.0,21.9018.30,50.040.030.0,1
25、,10.05.00.0,Wind,20.010.00.0,Wind,19.6016.5016.40,201012,201112,201112,201212,2010,1-12,20111-12,20111-12,20121-12,%,(,),%,%,%,15,0216,80883175095133224,17,7408,3811068950111180277,18.10%23.10%28.50%26.70%16.90%35.60%23.40%,17,6518,6331,091998117188281,20,3349,96212911162136225342,15.20%15.40%18.30%
26、16.40%16.50%19.60%21.90%,154,76263,4458,2396,4059291,2932,230,181,22678,16410,3237,95511031,8372,767,17.10%23.20%25.30%24.20%18.70%42.10%24.10%,181,24881,29810,5228,2861,1451,9042,863,207,167 14.30%93,330 14.80%12,406 17.90%9,778 18.00%1340 17.00%2,209 16.00%3,364 17.50%,2011/06,2011/07,2011/08,2011
27、/09,2011/10,2011/11,2011/12,2012/01,2012/02,2012/03,2012/04,2012/05,2012/06,2012/07,2012/08,2012/09,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,13.5%,17.9,18.5,11.9,11.4,2013,1,201012,201112,201112,201212,2010,1-12,20111-12,20111-12,20121-12,%,(,),%,%,%,32,37,14.10%,36,44,22.30%,325,367,13.00%,372,411 10.50%,426,568,33
28、.40%,590,647,9.70%,4,420,5,375,21.60%,5,537,5,936,7.20%,29314810187994,3731981411091,303,27.20%34.10%39.20%24.80%31.10%,3902061431371,272,4732321891561,514,21.40%12.70%32.40%14.00%19.00%,3,0601,27788983910,507,3,7181,6291,181107014,437,21.50%27.60%32.80%27.50%37.40%,3,9141,8551,2631,19514,249,4,814
29、23.00%2,183 17.70%1,604 27.00%1540 28.90%16,657 16.90%,2,152,2,371,10.20%,2,460,2,681,9.00%,18,183,20,838,14.60%,22,184,23,803,7.30%,131411,180515,37.20%25.36%,193532,238632,23.30%18.84%,1,0763,773,1,4004,164,30.10%10.37%,1,5874,421,1,978 24.60%5,307 20.04%,3,663,4,707,28.51%,4,901,5,767,17.68%,34,7
30、54,42,889,23.41%,44,865,52,870,17.84%,wind,2011,2000,500,200,%,2010,2011,1-12,/,12,12.4%,Q3,3.4ppt,12,11.7%,122011,1.8%,26,50,27,%,30%25%,23.9%,23.9%,50,%,30.025.0,27.5,:25.6,20%15%10%5%,16.1%,18.2%12.9%,14.6%11.6%,16.9%10.3%6.0%,9.1%,15.0%9.5%4.8%,13.7%,20.015.010.05.0,21.619.4 19.217.4 17.0 17.4,2
31、1.318.8,20.7 20.719.5 19.8 19.119.014.58.2,18.414.8 16.810.910.2 10.19.6 8.8 8.1,12.5 12.4,0%,-5%,-2.8%,0.0,-1.9,-5.0Wind50,199501,199610,199807,200004,200201,200310,200507,200704,200901,201010,201207,:,15.1,12.3,7.9,21.8,21.4,18.8,16.8,9.0,6.3,2013,1,25.0,28,22.9,%,2930.0,:,%,20.0,21.0,19.1,19.8,25
32、.0,25.9,15.010.05.00.0,17.9 17.015.9 15.6 16.4 15.7 15.5,14.1,15.815.2 14.413.48.4,14.4 13.114.313.9,8.86.4-2.0,7.9,8.15.0,8.2,7.5,11.79.2,20.015.010.05.00.0,17.9 18.4 17.215.0,21.820.8,8.6,18.713.511.7,11.98.8,11.810.2 10.89.8,13.85.84.0-0.8,4.9,7.85.23.3,7.0,5.21.8,-5.0,Wind2013,RPI,-5.0,Wind,14.5
33、%,2013,RPI,1.18,0.899,GDP30,1996,1995-2012,GDP,GDP,RPI,%,CPI,%,%,302520151050(5),Wind,4035302520151050,199503,199509,199603,199609,199703,199709,199803,199809,199903,199909,200003,200009,200103,200109,200203,200209,200303,200309,200403,200409,200503,200509,200603,200609,200703,200709,200803,200809,2
34、00903,200909,201003,201009,201103,201109,201203,201209,2013,1,31,GDP,1995Q1-2012Q3GDP,%,35302520151050Wind,2013,2012,CPI,15.0%,14.5%,2.8pct8.0%2012,14.3%7.8%2013Q1,201315.0%,2.5%,2013,GDP14.5%,2,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,YoYCPI,GDPGDP,306,859.8149,112.615.8%9.6%48.6%114,830.177.0%28.7%5.90%,34
35、5,023.6165,611.311.1%9.2%48.0%132,678.480.1%15.5%-0.70%,397,983.0198,991.520.2%10.3%50.0%156,998.478.9%18.3%3.30%,471,564.0224,170.012.7%9.2%47.5%183,919.082.0%17.1%5.40%,527,208.6255,696.114.1%7.8%48.5%210,219.482.2%14.3%2.70%,585,728.7292,864.414.5%7.9%50.0%240,441.682.1%14.5%2.50%,Wind20132012201
36、2,+50%,+70%,+,+105%,+30%+50%,+33%,+30%,+10%+30%+12%+15%,+25%30%A+10%,+18%20%,+15%,-10%+10%0%,+5%,+10%,0%+5%,+8%,-5%,+5%-10%,+10%,3,A,2013,1,2012,-10%2013Q1,2012,-35%,-40%,2013Q1,000501.SZ,10%,8%13%,600858.SH,0.45,200%+105%,30%40%,600697.SH600859.SH002277.SZ600828.SH600729.SH000987.SZ600723.SH,18%20%
37、10%25%30%5%10%15%12%15%,0 5%,15%18%10%15%20%5%15%5%10%5%10%,601010.SH600827.SH601933.SH002251.SZ002024.SZ002344.SZ600315.SH,5%0%5%+8%30%-35%-40%33%70%,10%,10%15%0%5%70%20%25%-15%-5%50%35%45%,Wind20132013+50%+20%+50%,-15%,-5%,/1,2012/10/4,2012/11/4,2012/12/4,2012/1/4,2012/2/4,2012/3/4,2012/4/4,2012/5
38、/4,2012/6/4,2012/7/4,2012/8/4,2012/9/4,2013/1/4,/,2013,1,23,2013,2013,15x,32,2013,TTM,33,2012,PE,50,54,/A,%TTM PE,A,TTM PE,500%,25%20%,300,CS,454035302520151050,450%400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%,15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%,2010/1/8,2011/1/8,2012/1/8,2013/1/8,Wind,2013,10%15%,Wind15%20%,15x
39、,2013,15%20%,20%,10%15%,2013,10%,10%20%,IT,2013Q1A,201350%,2013,2013,4,PE,/A,/A,/A,IT,/A,/A,/A,76.938.8,2.41.5,7038.9,2.51.5,72.537.4,2.91.4,14938.8,3.71.5,135.247.6,4.22,61.641.5,3.41.7,(,(,(,(,(,2013,1,15.7,1.1,17.9,1.1,16.5,0.7,9.6,0.8,12.1,0.7,15.1,0.8,2011PE,18.4,1.3,18,1.3,20,1.5,13,0.9,21,1.5
40、,30,2.1,2012PE,E,17.8,1.4,15,1.2,21,1.7,17,1.4,21,1.7,22,1.8,Wind,2013,1,29,EPS,5,2010,EPS2011 2012E 2013E 2014E,PE2011 2012E 2013E 2014E,PEG,A,(,000501.SZ600858.SH600697.SH002187.SZ600859.SH002277.SZ000417.SZ002419.SZ600828.SH600729.SH000987.SZ600723.SH600778.SH601010.SH1833.HK3308.HK0848.HK600827.
41、SH601933.SH002251.SZ1025.HK6808.HK002024.SZ600122.SH0493.HK002344.SZ600415.SH000061.SZ002574.SZ600315.SH,11.299.6622.177.7123.039.987.2311.494.8426.6011.697.6710.3813.6510.317.481.688.6725.0523.0915.4411.267.264.110.9527.506.795.9915.8758.64,0.580.210.830.510.810.390.370.610.241.410.910.360.340.720.
42、470.610.130.170.400.630.520.230.540.220.140.450.300.200.900.61,0.650.221.020.621.260.520.650.720.341.621.020.530.460.880.520.770.150.810.610.960.560.250.650.180.130.940.240.121.040.81,0.740.471.230.671.400.640.580.750.361.861.010.590.360.820.610.850.180.680.651.190.590.310.430.19-0.051.250.350.090.4
43、81.37,0.880.721.500.801.740.800.720.920.482.231.140.550.450.930.851.090.170.740.901.650.720.360.480.29-0.052.010.490.140.711.76,1.110.911.901.002.200.940.881.150.612.781.340.710.661.120.931.400.200.961.262.210.930.420.590.39-0.042.450.600.210.952.36,17432212181911161416111523162023111141242845112372
44、929491573,15211812161612151314121329171721913391926361722n.a.2219673343,131315101312101210121014231512161012281421311514n.a.1414432233,101112810118108109111612111289201017271211-241111291725,0.90.70.90.70.90.91.00.90.70.81.21.41.81.90.91.01.10.71.10.81.52.4n.a.0.8n.a.0.80.82.5n.a.1.7,16.2812.5028.30
45、13.4028.0012.9711.6014.257.2037.2015.007.6714.1516.7411.0018.702.5411.0030.0030.4415.5011.937.804.060.6040.0010.005.4015.5561.60,A,2013,1,29,17,16,13,11A,0.9,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein he
46、reby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views e
47、xpressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,300300300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limite
48、d Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action,letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,
