《煤炭行业周报：春节期间供需平淡,各地煤价平稳-130219.ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《煤炭行业周报：春节期间供需平淡,各地煤价平稳-130219.ppt（15页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、Apr/11,Jan/11,Apr/12,Jul/11,Jan/12,Jul/12,Oct/11,Oct/12,Jan/13,5,2013,2,19,/,2,8,300,2013,2,4,300,1.76%,1.04%,2.79%,14.04%,300,010-60836712,11.22%,6.57%,6.52%2,8,5.65%,S1010512080004,735.66,152.66,60.20,15.43,2,3,2,300,(,),3,20%0%,3,5 8%,20%40%60%,18.7,2012,1/3,20,/,1.2013-2-4,3,/,2,1,12Q3110116117,
2、12Q4107115115,12%-17-11.5-11,13Q1E108115118,13Q2E114118120,13Q3E112120120,13Q4E115120118,13E%-7.21-5.02-2.86,09Q1,100,1,2,3,1.76%.1,.1,.1.2.3,.4.5,.5,.5.6,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,18,1,.1.1.1.2.2.2.2.3.3.3.3.4.4.4.5.6,172 EPS,A,.6.6.6.7,5,(,(,1.76%,300,2013,2,41.04%,2,8,300,2.79%,300,1
3、.76%,14.04%,11.22%,1,1,6.57%Wind,645,/,6.52%,5.65%,910,/,2,SXCOAL,350/,285,/,190/2013/2/16),/,3,SXCOAL,/,2013/2/16)1,(,(,(,(,/,/,4,SXCOAL,/,2013/2/16),5,SXCOAL,/,2013/2/16),620,/,2,8,58004500,435,655/,/,5500,5,/,720,/,680,/,640,/,6,7,2013/2/16),SXCOAL,SXCOAL,2012/12/31),152.66,2,8,15.43,735.66,60.20
4、,2,1400/,1430/,990,1237.5/,1345/,2#,8#,1320,1200/2,(,(,(,(,/,810,SXCOALSXCOAL,/,2013/2/16)/2013/2/16),911,SXCOALSXCOAL,/2013/2/16)/2013/2/4),2 4,1010,/,1345,/,1270/,37000,7000,6200,1070,/,1020,/,630,6000,7000,7000,600,/,1015,/,975,/,2,8,770,/,1380,/,1040,/,1340,/,1282.5,/,945,/,740,/,3,(,(,(,1214,SX
5、COALSXCOAL,/2013/2/16)/2013/2/16),13,SXCOAL,/2013/2/16),18.73,20,660020,4,2,3,2,1,2012,300,2.91%,3 4,2012,11 21520%15%10%5%0%5%10%15%Wind5,Oct/08,Oct/09,Oct/10,Oct/11,Apr/08,Apr/09,Apr/10,Apr/11,Apr/12,Oct/12,Jan/08,Jul/08,Jan/09,Jul/09,Jan/10,Jul/10,Jan/11,Jul/11,Jan/12,Jul/12,200501,200505,200509,
6、200601,200608,200609,200701,200705,200709,200801,200805,200809,200901,200905,200909,201001,201005,201009,201101,201105,201109,201201,201205,201209,Jan/13,1625%20%15%10%5%0%5%10%15%Wind200915x16 17x15 20%,17,A,18,403020100,CS,Wind,A,60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%,Wind,1 21,EPS,/,P/E,x,12E,13E,14E,1
7、2E,13E,14E,17.2914.5116.7823.4522.224.228.1110.96,2015.6322.426.427.6828.29.313.28,2.12%6.57%6.52%4.88%3.40%0.98%1.86%11.22%,0.930.880.841.211.612.350.630.72,0.910.860.771.321.732.290.620.83,1.010.910.91.431.972.170.741.04,1916201914101315,1917221813111313,1716191611111111,6,13,EPS,/,P/E,x,12E,13E,1
8、4E,12E,13E,14E,13.4316.078.3221.6513.4918.814.069.019.7413.5710.3313.89,21.9818.2410.9223.9411.8818.912.828.810.2411.669.6214.82,3.20%2.63%3.66%-2.35%3.99%5.10%-0.49%3.95%5.41%1.68%14.04%5.65%,0.920.830.410.890.551.050.620.440.640.530.741.14,0.860.820.511.330.660.710.820.580.780.640.861.37,0.80.920.
9、591.740.810.790.90.620.780.580.811.26,151920242518232015261412,162016162026171612211210,171714121724161512231311,2,WindEPS,2012,2,18,12,14,12,14,0.53/0.62/0.710.75/0.99/1.10.83/1.00/1.140.92/1.07/0.930.88/1.03/1.08,0.43/0.51/0.590.62/0.82/0.900.83/0.82/0.920.92/0.86/0.800.88/0.86/0.91,Wind7,(,),2010
10、6990571618.23%96801.15%4085.83%4130,20118312689617.03%112931.12%7519.04%4349,2012E7861600223.65%107791.00%4726.00%-5591,2013E7886630020.11%107630.80%4105.20%-16716,2014E8277661320.10%112800.97%5586.75%-19108,20101,1053001121,8893,4055,89201,921594,20116393261182,6763,7595,87401,820984,2012E6,0211061
11、832,2858,5946,16801,818775,2013E6,6011381682,4179,3236,45301,815556,2014E7,4171301842,48610,2176,76801,812309,59.08%,52.33%-71.11%,-211.97%,-230.86%,8,407,8,678,8,761,8,825,8,889,0127418.23%79127231624.80%695113.61%,0141617.03%135142440428.36%7101312.19%,0125515.96%107125833426.58%691811.68%,0117114
12、.85%107117431226.58%585710.86%,0110113.30%116110530027.17%58009.66%,11,81207343,4974,2319611,1032,0646,2954382,682,12,43608603,4054,2659161,0581,9816,2471,0002,119,17,35507603,5104,2699161,0581,9856,2541,0002,119,18,14807923,4564,2489161,0581,9906,2381,0002,119,19,10608343,6114,4459161,0581,9956,440
13、1,0002,119,)(,1.08,1.01,0.92,0.86,0.80,5,478,6,148,11,054,11,857,12,608,3911,812,4112,436,4717,355,5318,148,5819,106,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,1,272,1,424,1,258,1,174,1,105,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,316,404,334,312,300,%,5920-576,744-579452,260-426-841,324201-1,207,356-93-614,18.91%20.65%6.53%,-
14、5.42%-12.97%-9.41%,0.32%4.97%-6.67%,4.95%4.96%-6.63%,1,604,2,444,585,804,1,055,%,-753,-1,881,-340,-374,-411,18.23%,17.03%,23.65%,20.11%,20.10%,00-753,00-1,881,00-340,00-374,00-411,EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin,18.71%18.79%13.61%,17.57%17.66%12.19%,15.22%15.25%11.68%,12.70%12.74%10.86%,10.98%11.03%9.66%,0
15、,0,0,0,0,%,-1,40057,-4857,857,-1653,20249,17.36%8.05%,16.48%8.15%,8.30%5.29%,7.22%4.72%,6.34%4.19%,1,065,-693,-41,114,-80,%,-279571,-684-121,24269,151581,172815,53.29%24.80%,50.23%28.36%,36.04%26.58%,34.37%26.58%,33.71%27.17%,5.94%,5.58%,5.76%,5.76%,5.70%,8,(,),2010279412462211.88%4822891.03%13254.7
16、4%1980.71%22334111.96%3656332182724.90%8224128.63%,201150720468657.60%5454000.79%19823.91%1500.30%-9537607.41%55523763105127.94%-9928115.54%,2012E62983571159.32%5674410.70%22043.50%-234-0.37%-3727364.34%5452273872326.42%2019953.17%,2013E69464631859.04%6604860.70%24313.50%-105-0.15%-6627483.96%485327
17、4374627.18%2019782.85%,2014E78371708939.54%7846270.80%29783.80%-31-0.04%-5130603.90%5252306082026.80%2222182.83%,201058829901238346011571508230842921005106882225859735795380955512214226831223824050,2011809380416325489160186102345443910091189527913790416784131337010642160714977240538,2012E11400175823
18、6363652188765103454436109712388342741790748993521863110642160720238240538,2013E1353018572643773625765696234544331193129343869837907696101702165610642160723263240538,2014E1135218272817835324350746334544301299135383788708078111201919810642160720804240538,)(,1.00,1.17,0.83,0.82,0.92,8529,11423,12504,13
19、883,15507,149222258,151327913,153334274,155338698,157537887,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,3321,3763,2738,2743,3060,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,827,1051,723,746,820,%,15940-15,16010-22,295-158316,322715-30,350-563-5,39.67%12.53%8.63%,81.53%90.34%16.50%,24.18%21.87%-29.04%,10.29%10.63%-0.84%,12.82%12.20
20、%12.14%,4249,4244,3813,1558,3183,%,-1040,-68,-790,-869,-956,11.88%,7.60%,9.32%,9.04%,9.54%,22-102-1120,-95-64-227,-370-827,-660-935,-510-1008,EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin,12.30%12.36%8.63%,7.91%7.94%5.54%,3.94%3.95%3.17%,3.77%3.77%2.85%,3.84%3.84%2.83%,0,0,0,0,0,%,12501082,2739914,5261914,3025598,-24585
21、93,28.29%10.84%,24.60%10.07%,15.95%5.82%,14.25%5.11%,14.30%5.85%,-4374,-5095,-5854,-2116,-2488,%,-20421951,-14422194,3203307,15072130,-4353-2178,54.98%24.90%,53.66%27.94%,59.05%26.42%,60.11%27.18%,54.91%26.80%,14.86%,12.52%,10.00%,10.00%,10.00%,9,(,),201016,90315,4548.57%1212401.42%4592.71%6343.75%8
22、61,5579.21%1141501,52149032.23%-1281,1596.86%,201130,69929,2204.82%1482510.82%5161.68%8352.72%-411,4394.69%57771,41930821.68%-401,1513.75%,2012E34,36031,8057.44%1552750.80%5501.60%4971.45%239472.76%8611391924826.96%-547252.11%,2013E37,50334,9476.82%1883380.90%6751.80%3590.96%231,1082.95%861131,08029
23、126.96%-638522.27%,2014E42,05939,0397.18%2013530.84%7121.69%4201.00%21,2753.03%761011,25031525.20%-619962.37%,20103,5412,00670248,05712,1043431,6482516,61124,6683,9041,7156211,7846,4392716,92218,7051,050246,20113,4432,231142399,72911,9527541,9235720,34830,0777,2082,1327516,8805,5834946,26923,1491,68
24、0365,2012E3,8283,3131544711,95013,1307541,9174620,38732,3372,1722,9259814,9156,0834946,80221,7171,680365,2013E5,4003,1641724913,64814,2787541,9113720,63934,2872,2722,88210515,6786,5834947,30922,9871,680365,2014E6,9603,8031915616,55515,5447541,9052720,92037,4752,3723,40512318,0376,5834947,32925,3661,
25、680365,)(,1.10,0.68,0.43,0.51,0.59,4,500,5,461,9,206,9,950,10,819,1,46324,668,1,46730,077,1,41332,337,1,35034,287,1,29037,475,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,1,521,1,419,919,1,080,1,250,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,490,308,248,291,315,%,1,058560-17,1,187-3,42472,523-50111,724239-8,792-1321,81.62%-7.60%-0
26、.71%,11.93%-34.16%-36.98%,9.15%16.96%17.48%,12.15%15.13%16.93%,1,935,6,657,2,289,1,491,2,306,%,0,0,-863,-949,-1,044,8.57%,4.82%,7.44%,6.82%,7.18%,86-31-2,978,-41-22-2,244,230-828,230-915,20-1,035,EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin,13.51%13.57%6.86%,7.47%7.51%3.75%,4.28%4.29%2.11%,4.00%4.02%2.27%,4.12%4.13%2.3
27、7%,0,0,0,0,0,%,4,335210,4,444134,-1,432134,1,270108,2,379127,25.75%4.70%,21.07%3.83%,7.88%2.24%,8.56%2.48%,9.21%2.66%,-31,-49,-33,-4,-22,%,1,467423,-3644,049,-4,560-3,099,9971,573,2891,559,75.83%32.23%,76.96%21.68%,67.16%26.96%,67.04%26.96%,67.69%25.20%,18.12%,11.68%,14.90%,14.90%,13.83%,10,(,),2010
28、16942958843.41%2725793.42%232013.70%2021.20%-132383322.62%43393837104327.19%149264415.61%,2011303722118030.27%35412314.05%30329.98%4411.45%30413413.61%15224127112127.18%19028159.27%,2012E291932142226.62%33910853.72%341911.71%1370.47%-7427379.37%2922274470125.55%8219616.72%,2013E366992659227.54%40414
29、313.90%429411.70%1870.51%-59368310.04%2922369098326.64%10825997.08%,2014E416843071026.33%47614593.50%464011.13%2930.70%-3440209.64%24224023106426.45%11828406.81%,2010668078849846561262192171496286533216331289521000362028817500435933207679151793151941,2011671326029636038163161743269820242172223273864
30、37756700669714171490230417943221143151946,2012E79031793823654217061176266982012161121948390097756776646314013490230417943219563151946,2013E98222559893861221886178016981998996214934337910008954673316686490230417943246293151946,2014E131893100945905326286179936981983319209944728019009923758519408490230
31、417943273513151946,)(,0.84,0.89,0.62,0.82,0.90,12644,13945,14382,15971,17032,144828952,258838643,267039009,277843379,289747280,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,3837,4127,2744,3690,4023,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,1043,1121,701,983,1064,%,1572,3106,1166,1323,1455,37.33%,79.27%,-3.88%,25.71%,13.58%,-1326,-
32、2415,294,370,-888,27.92%120.90%,1.14%,24.13%,15.49%,-18,-21,-18,-24,0,18.60%,6.47%,-30.34%,32.51%,9.30%,3363,3882,3107,3955,5680,%,-2373,-3933,-914,-1006,-1107,43.41%,30.27%,26.62%,27.54%,26.33%,-132399-2107,30799-3104,-742-987,-590-1065,-340-1141,EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin,22.96%23.05%15.61%,14.41%14
33、.52%9.27%,9.59%9.63%6.72%,10.27%10.31%7.08%,10.07%10.10%6.81%,0,0,0,0,0,%,3175702,693533793,-15803793,267308784,272162780,20.91%9.13%,20.19%7.29%,13.64%5.03%,16.27%5.99%,16.68%6.01%,-3912,-695071,14080,-269064,-274114,%,-351221,-74533,-9301190,-9721919,-11723367,52.43%27.19%,57.23%27.18%,56.29%25.55
34、%,56.78%26.64%,57.85%26.45%,26.54%,28.18%,20.00%,20.00%,20.00%,11,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the pers
35、onal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compensation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,6300,3003
36、00300300300,-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommission.Securiti
37、es Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action,letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,
