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1、Top picks,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/Commodity,PeriodicalRailcar and NGLUpdate,Date17 August 2012David Begleiter,CFA,US chemical shipments were flat.Ethane down 3c/galRailcar loadings 4-week moving avg.was flat,weekly loadings down 0.4%The 4-
2、week moving average of chemical railcar loadings were flat in Week#32(ended August 11)vs.a 1.1%decrease the prior week.Loadings YTD are down1.3%.Chemical railcar loadings represent 30%of total US chemical shipmenttonnage(followed by trucks,barges,and pipelines),offering a measurement ofbroader chemi
3、cal industry activity and demand trends.The more volatilemeasure of weekly loadings declined 0.4%YoY(versus a 3.3%increase in theprior week)and declined 1.5%sequentially(vs.a 1.0%decrease in the prior,Research Analyst(+1)212 250-Ramanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst()212 250-Ashland(ASH.N),USD74.29,we
4、ek).Ethane prices fall 3 c/gal this week to 35c/gal(down 56%YTD)Ethane prices fell 3c/gal this week to 35c/gal.Spot ethylene margins rose,LyondellBasell(LYB.N),USD48.52Eastman Chemical(EMN.N),USD54.81,Buy,1.5c/lb to 29c/lb as spot ethylene prices increased 3c/lb this week to 52/lb.Flint Hills Port A
5、rthur facility(1.9%of North American ethylene capacity)restarted following downtime owing to a leak.,(GDP,Real YoY)USEuroland,20080.4%0.6%,2009-2.6%-4.1%,20103.0%1.9%,2011 2012E 2013E1.8%2.4%2.5%1.5%-0.5%0.3%,We expect ethane prices to move modestly higher near term as there are noplanned maintenanc
6、e outages on the US Gulf Coast until September.Additionally,propane prices are poised to rise as we move further into 2H12amid increased propane export capacity and increased demand from the cropdrying and the winter heating season.,Japan-0.7%-5.3%G7 0.3%-3.5%Asia ex-Japan 6.8%5.7%China 9.0%9.1%Glob
7、al 2.7%-0.9%Source:DB Global Economics Team,4.1%2.9%9.4%10.3%5.1%,-0.7%3.1%1.2%1.4%1.7%1.8%7.3%6.4%6.9%9.2%7.9%8.4%3.6%3.2%3.5%,NAHB index continues to indicate housing/construction improvementsHomebuilder confidence is showing continued improvement as the AugustNAHB index rose 2 pts to 37,marking t
8、he highest reading since February 2007(37).Additionally,new building permits rose 7%in July,marking the fastestSAAR rate(812k)in almost four years.We expect ethane prices to move modestly higher near term as there are noplanned maintenance outages on the US Gulf Coast until September.Additionally,pr
9、opane prices are poised to rise as we move further into 2H12amid increased propane export capacity and increased demand from the cropdrying and the winter heating season.We maintain our equal-weight stance on the sectorWe prefer exposure to high quality companies within the chemicals sector:Ashland(
10、ASH,Buy,TP$80:Top Specialty idea),Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy,TP$63:Top Differentiated idea),Celanese(CE,Buy,TP$50)and LyondellBasell(LYB,Buy,TP$55:Top Commodity idea)._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated.Prices
11、 are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest tha
12、t could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,17 August 2012,Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL Update,Table Of Conten
13、ts,US Chemicals Railcar Data.4Key end market data.6US macro indicators.12Overseas macro indicators.15Sector Valuation&Risks.16,Table of Exhibits,Figure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended August 11,2012(Week#32).3Figure 2:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits.3Figure
14、3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America).3Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America).3Figure 5:US ethane-based ethylene production costs are advantaged vs other regions(c/lb).3Figure 6:US ethane supply has been increasing steadily since 2005(000 of bpd).3Figure 7:Chemical distributio
15、n channels,by volume and cost.4Figure 8:Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY).4Figure 9:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present).4Figure 10:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcar loadings(2009-Present).5Figure 11:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Pres
16、ent).5Figure 12:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings,%YoY(2000-Present).5Figure 13:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(000s,2000-Present).5Figure 14:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets.6Figure 15:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels
17、 since the mid-1970s.7Figure 16:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres).7Figure 17:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons).8Figure 18:Arable Land Per Capita.8Figure 19:Global Corn Yields by Country/Region(bu/acre;2011).8Figure 20:Global Corn Acreage by Region(millions of acres;2011).8Figure 2
18、1:US construction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and is beginningto show signs of improvement.9Figure 22:Private non-residential construction has surpassed public non-residential,construction.9Figure 23:Household debt to asset ratio returning to trend levels.10Figure 24:Household De
19、bt/GDP ratio also returning to trend levels.10Figure 25:Housing-related consumption remains well above homebuilder sentiment.10Figure 26:Housing starts appear to have bottomed and have ticked up in 2012.10Figure 27:North American auto builds.11Figure 28:North American printed circuit board book-to-b
20、ill ratio.11Figure 29:US Chemicals Shipments on Internal Waterways.12Figure 30:Chemicals Railcar Loadings,Capacity Utilization,and Industrial Production.12Figure 31:Growth in railcar loadings is ahead of industrial production.13Figure 32:ECRI Leading Index vs.Industrial Production.13Figure 33:Indust
21、rial Production vs.ISM PMI Index.13Figure 34:Industrial Production vs.ISM Mfg.New Orders.13Figure 35:Industrial Production vs.Conference Board Leading Indicators.13Figure 36:Conference Board Leading Indicators vs.Real GDP.13Figure 37:Chemicals sector multiples vs the yield curve.14Figure 38:A steepe
22、r yield curve has previously led rising chemicals IP.14Figure 39:Eurozone confidence indicators.15Figure 40:ZEW German economic sentiment indicator(12mo m.avg.).15Figure 41:OECD Europe CLI vs Euro area Industrial Production.15,Apr-11,Apr-12,Aug-11,May-11,May-12,Nov-11,Nov-10,Dec-10,Sep-10,Dec-11,Sep
23、-11,Sep-10,Sep-11,Nov-10,Dec-10,Nov-11,Aug-11,Dec-11,May-11,May-12,Aug-12,May-1995,May-2000,May-2005,May-2010,Mar-1996,Mar-2001,Mar-2006,Mar-2011,Nov-1997,Nov-2002,Nov-2007,Jul-1999,Jul-2004,Sep-1998,Jan-1997,Sep-2003,Jan-2002,Sep-2008,Jan-2007,Jul-2009,Jan-2012,Aug-12,Feb-12,Feb-11,Mar-11,Mar-12,Oc
24、t-10,Oct-11,Jun-11,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jun-12,Oct-10,Apr-11,Oct-11,Apr-12,Jan-11,Jun-11,Jan-12,Jun-12,Jul-11,Feb-11,Feb-12,Mar-11,Mar-12,Jul-12,Jul-11,Jul-12,Figure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended August 11,2012(Week#32),%YoY,%Sequential,4-week moving averagePrior weekWeek endedPrior weekYTD 2
25、012,0.0%(1.1%)(0.4%)3.3%(1.30%),0.5%3.0%(1.5%)(1.0%),Source:Association of American Railroads and Deutsche BankFigure 2:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits,Weekly Avg.Cents/Pound,Change from Last Week,Purity EthanePropaneCo-Prod.Int.Lt.NaphthaButaneLight NaphthaGas OilWeigh
26、ted Avg.Source:IHS Chemical,15.222.943.434.453.771.222.5,(1.0)1.95.34.85.71.00.5,Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America)c/gallon1009080706050403020Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 5:US ethane-based ethylene production costs areadvantaged vs other regions(c/lb)50454035302520151050,Figure 4:M
27、t.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America)c/gallon170160150140130120110100908070Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 6:US ethane supply has been increasing steadilysince 2005(000 of bpd)11001000900800700600500400,Western US Ethane,US,US,US Light Northeast,West,Southeast,Canada,Weighted Coprod Naphtha,Asia,Europe
28、,Asia,Source:IHS Chemical,Average,LightNaphtha,Naphtha Naphtha Naphtha,Source:EIA,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,17 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL UpdateUS Chemicals Ra
29、ilcar DataFigure 7:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and cost,By tonnage(882MM tons),By cost*($40.0 billion),RailTruckWaterbornePipeline,Air&Other,30%48%18%4%,20%67%10%3%,Source:American Chemistry Council.*Cost is cost of transportation,not value of product,2010 dataYear to date,chemical rail
30、car loadings are down 1.3%Year to date,chemical railcar loadings are down approximately 1.3%.With ethanolcomprising approximately 21%of chemicals loadings and DoE blending up 10%(est.)in11,we estimate that ethanol is boosting 12 US chemicals railcar loadings by roughly2%.Figure 8:Chemical and petrol
31、eum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY)60%50%40%,30%20%10%0%(10%),Week#32,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Chemicals railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Ethanol-driven Increase in loadings(estimated from blending,4-wk m.a.%YoY)Petroleum Products railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Source:Associati
32、on of American RailroadsFigure 9:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present)33,00031,00029,00027,00025,000,23,000,Week#32,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep Oct,Nov,Dec,Source:Association of American Railroads,2010,2011,2012,SequentialChange,-,-,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan
33、-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Figure 10:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcarloadings(2009-Present)35%25%15%5%(5%),Figure 11:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Present)34323
34、02826,(15%)(25%),Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Week#32Jun Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov Dec,2422,Jan Feb Mar,Week#32Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct,NovDec,2010,2011,2012,2010,2011,2012,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 12:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings,%YoY(2000-Present)30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%
35、)(30%)(40%)Source:Association of American Railroads,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 13:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings(000s,2000-Present)32302826242220Source:Association of American Railroads,-,-,-,-,-,-,17 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL UpdateKey end
36、 market dataFigure 14:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets,Company3M,Auto&Transport11%,Construction4%,Electronics10%,CommentsIndustrial 25%;Healthcare 18%;Consumer 15%;Energy 3%,Safety&Security 14%,Air Products,15%,Energy 24%,Genl Mfg 15%,Chemicals 17%,Metals 10%,Medical 7%,Foo
37、d 3%,Others 10%,Airgas,2%,13%,Industrial Repair&Maintenance:27%Retail&,Wholesale:4%Other 3%Medical:9%;Food;6%;Analytical:2%Utilities:2%,Petrochemical:7%“Auto&Transport”is onlyTransport and no Auto,Albemarle,6%,9%,15%,Refining 32%,Pharma/Ag 12%,Industrial 10%,Packaging 9%,Oilfield 4%,Other 3%,Ashland
38、,8%,17%,Coatings 6%,Lubricants 15%,Chemicals 5%,Pulp/paper 12%,Energy 3%,Regulated Ind 3%,Marine 4%,Infrastructure 2%,Packaging/converting 3%,Retail consumer 3%,Personal Care3%,Medical 2%,Others 14%,CabotCelanese,15%11%,10%3%,10%,Tire 45%;Others 20%Filter Media 22%;Paints Consumer&Medical,Apps 12%;C
39、onsumer Paper&Packaging 3%,Cytec,17%,47%,Chemical Processing:13%,Mineral Processing 7%;Plastic:4%;,Adhesives:3%;Other:9%“Auto&Transport”consists ofAutomotive only,DuPont,20%,10%,9%,Agriculture/food 21%;Food Ingred,Ref Other,packaging 3%;Chemicals/petchem 5%;Textile/apparel 5%;Plastics 3%;Other indus
40、trial 7%;Aerospace 4%;Paper 1%;Healthcare 1%;Personal care 3%.“Construction”includesresidential,commercial construction”,Ferro,10%,34%,21%,Appliances 8%;Containers 8%;Household furnishings 7%;,Industrial 6%;Others 6%,HB Fuller,10%,Adhesives:72%;Paints:8%;Packaging:4%;Insulating glass:4%;Consumer:2%,
41、LyondellBasell,7%,10%,Refining/Fuels:35%;Packaging:18%;Consumer:12%;Coatings:,4%;Textiles/Furnishings:4%;Other:10%.“Auto&Transport”consists of Transportation only.“Construction”consists of“Building&Construction”.,PPG,30%,27%,Consumer goods 21%;Industrial goods 10%;Chemical products:,5%;Aerospace 4%;
42、Marine 3%(Auto consists of OEM 19%,Auto aftermarket 11%),Praxair,7%,Manufacturing 24%;Chemicals 10%;Energy 13%;Food andBeverage 7%;Aerospace 2%;Healthcare 10%;Metals 16%;Other 11%,Rockwood Holdings,11%,13%,8.00%,Metal Treatment 17%;Chemicals/Plastics 14%;Life Sciences,12%;Consumer Products 2%;Paper
43、2%;Environmental 2%;Other 8%,Valspar,3%,30%,Industrial 36%,Packaging 21%,Other 10%“Auto&Transport”is,automotive refinish and“Construction”is architectural paintsSource:Company data,Deutsche Bank estimates,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01
44、,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,12/13E,End Market:AgricultureFigure 15:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970sSource:Deutsche BankFigure 16:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres)10595857565554535,Source:Deutsche Bank,USDA,US Corn Acreage,US Soy Acreage,17
45、 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL Update,Figure 17:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons)MM Tons,Figure 18:Arable Land Per CapitaAcres/Capita,1200,1090,1.2,1000800,970,10.8,1.02,0.75,600,600,0.6,0.55,400,410,0.4,0.44,0.41,220,200,0.2,0,1965,1980,2000,2020E,2030E,0,1961,1980,2000,2020E,2030E,S
46、ource:Global InsightsFigure 19:Global Corn Yields by Country/Region(bu/acre;2011),Source:Global InsightsFigure 20:Global Corn Acreage by Region(millions ofacres;2011),160,147,145,100,92,14012010080,129,126,119,98,84,78,68,9080706050,70,6040,37,4030,32,27,25,200,2010,10,9.5,6.5,4.5,3,0,Source:Global
47、Insights,USDA,Source:Global Insights,USDA,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,11,12,YoYchange,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,End Market:US ConstructionFigure 21:US construction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and isbeginning to show signs of improvement,$1,000$900$800$700$600$500$400$300$200$1
48、00$0,Total non-res constr.Jun-12=$570Total res-constr.%YOY;Jun-12=10.7%,Total res-constr.Jun-12=$272Total non-res constr.%YOY;Jun-12=5.4%,30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%),Source:Haver AnalyticsFigure 22:Private non-residential construction has surpassed public non-residentialconstruction40%30%20
49、%,10%0%-10%-20%-30%,Apr-12=(2.6%)Jun-12=19.8%,-40%Private non-residential construction SAAR$millions(%YoY,3mo m.a.)Public non-residential construction SAAR$millions(%YoY,3mo m.a.)Source:Deutsche Bank,Haver Analytics,U.S.Census Bureau,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,
50、10,11,12,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96,97,98,99,00,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,17 August 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar and NGL Update,Figure 23:Household debt to asset ratio returning totrend levelsSource:Federal Reserve Board,Haver Analytics,DB Global Market researchFigure 25:Housing-related
