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1、,CompanyReport,ChinaResourcesEnterprise华润创业(00291HK),GTJAResearch国泰君安研究,10%,0%,-10%,-20%,-30%,48.5,45.2,16.2,Company Report:China Resources Enterprise(00291 HK)公司报告：华润创业(00291 HK),Frank Xu 许智程+86 755 23976725,05 December 2012Continuation of Restructuring To Be The Main Theme.整合仍将是主题。,3Q12 results sl
2、ightly weaker than market anticipation.CREs turnover for 3Q12,Rating:,AccumulateMaintained,rose 11.1%YoY to HK$34,209m;Shareholders profit for 3Q12 rose 26.7%YoY toHK$1,138m.On lower than consensus estimated earnings from beer and retailsegments,underlying net profit dropped 2%YoY during 3Q12 to HK$
3、668m.Bysegment,CREs 4 key units-retail,beer,food and beverages contributed 62%,26%,9%and 3%to the Companys 1-3Q12 turnover respectively and in terms of underlyingnet profit,their contributions were 38%,44%,12%and 6%respectively.A better prospect for the majority of segments in the mid term.We are po
4、sitive onthe consolidation of CREs retail,food and beverage units and the product mix upgradefrom the beer unit,though judging by operating efficiency,the sweet spot for CRE hasyet to come.On the other hand,we anticipate with the continuing growth of theeconomy and emergence of more beneficial polic
5、ies,demand for consumer staplesfrom both urban and rural households will be supported in the longer scope.,评级：6-18m TP 目标价:Revised from 原目标价:Share price 股价：Stock performance股价表现,收集(维持)HK$30.24HK$32.80HK$27.500,Maintain“Accumulate”rating with target price of HK$30.24.We expect theFY12-14 basic underl
6、ying EPS to be HK$0.834,1.006 and 1.224 respectively.Weare positive on the consolidation in CREs retail,food and beverage units and theproduct mix upgrade from the beer unit.CREs increasing regional leadership in allbusiness segments provides the Company with capacity to fully benefit from theongoin
7、g consumption upgrade.Our TP translates to 36.3x underlying FY12 PE,30.1xFY13 underlying PE,1.9x FY12 PBR or 1.7x FY13 PBR.12 年第三季度业绩较市场预期略弱。公司 12 年第三季度营业额同比增长 11.1%至 342.09亿港元；股东净利同比增长 26.7%至 11.38 亿港元。略低于市场预期的啤酒及零售业务表现使公司经常性净利同比下滑 2%至 6.68 亿港元。分业务来看，12 年第三季度公司的四,20%,%of return,个业务板块-零售、啤酒、食品及饮料分别贡
8、献了 62%、26%、9及 3%的收入：其经,-40%Dec-11,Mar-12,Jun-12,Sep-12,Dec-12,常性利润的贡献比分别为 38%、44%、12%及 6%。,大部分业务的中期前景向好。我们看好华润创业的零售、食品和饮料业务的整合，以及啤酒业务的产品组合升级。虽然从经营效率来看，公司的最佳时期尚未到来。但另一方,00291 HK,HSI Index,面，我们预计随着经济的持续增长以及更多的实质消费利好政策的出台，城镇与乡村家庭对消费必需品将会有长期的需求。维持“增持”评级，目标价 30.24 港元，我们预计 12 至 14 财年经常性基本每股盈利分别为 0.834、1.0
9、06 及 1.224 港元。我们对华润创业零售、食品及饮料业务的整合及啤酒业务的产品结构升级持积极态度。各业务线的区域垄断地位日益增加，能确保公司充分,Change in Share Price股价变动Abs.%绝对变动%Rel.%to HS index相对恒指变动%Avg.share price(HK$)平均股价（港元）,1M1 个月3.04.426.5,3M3 个月18.56.325.7,1Y1 年(2.5)(17.0)25.5,受益于持续的消费升级。我们的目标价对应 36.3 倍 12 年核心市盈率，30.1 倍 13 年核心市盈率，1.9 倍 12 年市净率及 1.7 倍 13 年市净
10、率。,Source:Bloomberg,Guotai Junan International.,Year End年结12/312010A2011A2012F2013F2014F,Turnover收入(HK$m)86,728110,164129,119151,252176,689,Net Profit股东净利(HK$m)5,6742,8323,2783,5843,963,Underlying EPS核心每股净利(HK$)0.8000.7870.8341.0061.224,EPS每股净利变动(%)10.2(1.5)5.920.621.7,PER市盈率(x)34.434.933.027.322.5,
11、BPS每股净资产(HK$)12.86315.17316.22017.71619.370,PBR市净率(x)2.11.81.71.61.4,DPS每股股息(HK$)0.5200.4700.5470.5980.662,Yield股息率(%)1.91.72.02.22.4,ROE净资产收益率(%)20.08.48.78.88.9,Shares in issue(m)总股数(m),2,400.8,Major shareholder 大股东,China Resources Co.,Ltd.51.4%,Market cap.(HK$m)市值(HK$m)3 month average vol.3 个月平均成
12、交股数(000)52 Weeks high/low(HK$)52 周高/低Source:The Company,Guotai Junan International.See the last page for disclaimer,66,022.43,557.030.800/18.800,Free float(%)自由流通比率(%)FY12 Net gearing(%)FY12 净负债/股东资金(%)FY12 NBV per share FY12 每股净资产(HK$),Page 1 of 11,CompanyReport,ChinaResourcesEnterprise华润创业(00291HK
13、),5December2012,80%,3Q12 results highlight:,Figure:Quarterly turnover&YoY growthof CREs beer segment.,10,000,Turnover(HK$mil,left axis),Growth(right axis),35%,Results slightly weaker than market anticipation.CREs unauditedturnover for 3Q12 and 1-3Q12 rose 11.1%and 16.8%YoY toHK$34,209m and HK$98,168
14、m respectively;Shareholders profit for3Q12 and 1-3Q12 rose 26.7%and 33.1%YoY to HK$1,138m and,9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,000,21.1%,33.0%,19.3%,23.3%,17.9%,11.7%,30%25%20%15%10%,HK$3,373m respectively.However,on lower than consensusestimated earnings from beer and retail segments largely due tounfavo
15、urable weather and macro economy conditions,the Companysunderlying net profit after deductions of asset revaluation and major,3,0002,0001,0000,4,9021Q11,7,9282Q11,9,2743Q11,4,5854Q11,5,7781Q12,8,8552Q12,-1.3%9,1533Q12,5%0%-5%,asset disposals dropped 2%and 5%YoY during 3Q12 and 1-3Q12 toHK$668m and H
16、K$1,799m respectively.By segment,CREs 4 keyunits-retail,beer,food and beverages contributed 62%,26%,9%and3%to the Companys YTD turnover respectively and in terms of,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure:Quarterly turnover&YoY growthof CREs retail segment.,underlying net profit YTD,the
17、ir contributions were 38%,44%,12%and,30,000,Turnover(HK$mil,left axis),Growth(right axis),30%,6%respectively.,25,000,27.7%,27.9%,27.0%,26.0%,27.0%,25%,20,000,20%,Stabilising margins for beer unit.Same as in 1H12,beer businesswas again the only unit making positive YoY earnings growth in1-3Q12.Throug
18、h continuous establishment and management of its,15,00010,0005,000,17.1%,18.5%,15%10%5%,distribution channel and implementation of new promotion strategies in,19,019,15,348,17,669,18,052,24,150,17,975,20,942,the context of more competitions in the low-end market,the ASP of,0,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12
19、,2Q12,3Q12,0%,CREs beer dropped by 6%for a 4%increase in volumes in 3Q12;consequently the EBITDA margin for beer unit of the same period rose1.6 ppt to 20.1%,together with a lowered A&P costs,the decline in net,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure:Quarterly turnover&YoY growthof CREs
20、 food segment.,margin has narrowed when compared with 3Q11.,3,500,Turnover(HK$mil,left axis),Growth(right axis),40%,35.9%,35%,3,000,24.1%,26.3%,28.5%,30%,2,500,25%,Slight net margin improvement for retail unit.Though 3Q12 SSSgrowth of CREs retail unit was slowed down to 4.6%from 5.7%during1H12,it is
21、 still peer-wide strong.Due to marginal increase in costs,especially labour cost and rentals,the 3Q12 EBITDA margin of the unit,2,0001,5001,000,14.1%,-2.3%,20%15%10%5%0%,declined 6 ppt YoY to 2.9%.However,thanks to the fluctuation in taxrate on a small base in 3Q11,the underlying net margin of the u
22、nit rose0.05 ppt YoY to 0.37%for 3Q12 and this is the first sequential,5000,2,2621Q11,2,5932Q11,2,8833Q11,2,9684Q11,2,5801Q12,2,5342Q12,-8.6%2,6363Q12,-5%-10%-15%,improvement in net margin since 1Q11.,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure:Quarterly turnover&YoY growth,Food unit is und
23、ergoing restructuring.3Q12 turnover of the unitdown by 8.6%YoY mainly due to price ease in hog prices and excess,of CREs beverage segment.1,800 Turnover(HK$mil,left axis)1,600,Growth(right axis),70%,supply in assorted foodstuff business in Mainland China and frozenfood distribution operation busines
24、s in Hong Kong.Underlying net profitrose 30.8%YoY in 3Q12 with 0.78 ppt improvement in underlying netmargin mainly due to the downward trend in prices of meat prices.,1,4001,2001,000800600,49.2%,54.8%,45.4%,51.2%,63.8%,70.2%,47.7%,60%50%40%30%,400,20%,Beverage unit is still waiting for its sweet spo
25、t.Turnover of the unitrose sharply by 47.7%helped by 14%rise in ASP and strong,2000,5671Q11,7992Q11,1,0963Q11,6504Q11,9291Q12,1,3602Q12,1,6193Q12,10%0%,performance of the Kirin product.However,dragged down by theSee the last page for disclaimer,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Page 2 of
26、 11,CompanyReport,ChinaResourcesEnterprise华润创业(00291HK),5December2012,0.12,6%0.62 1.00,7%0.00,6%,investment to the joint-venture with Kirin and higher marketingexpenses associated with it,the underlying net profit for 3Q12 was,Figure:Quarterly underlying net margin&its YoY change of CREs beer segmen
27、t.,down by 6.5%YoY with 2.1 ppt YoY decline in underlying net margin,although the decline has narrowed when compared with that in 1H12.,7%6%5%,Underlying net margin(left axis)YoY change(ppt,right axis)0.96,0.71,1.501.00,4%,0.50,3%,(0.06),0.01,Segment analysis:,2%,(0.26),0.00,1%0%,0.41%,3.90%,5.76%,-
28、1.70%,-0.57%,4.61%,5.50%,(0.50),Beer:Solidifying market leader position.,-1%-2%,1Q11,2Q11,3Q11(1.01),4Q11,1Q12(0.98),2Q12,3Q12,(1.00),Change of marketing strategy.CREs beer unit(CRB)continued tosolidify its No.1 brand position in China during 3Q12 amid overallsluggish beer market sentiments which wa
29、s mainly caused by unclear,-3%Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.,(1.50),economy outlook,unfavourable weather conditions and intensifyingcompetition especially in the low-end market.As the third quarter was apeak season for beer sales,the environment has led to some changesin the units ma
30、rketing strategy,that the management cut back some,Figure:Quarterly underlying net margin&its YoY change of CREs retail segment.3%0.20Underlying net margin(left axis)0.05YoY change(ppt,right axis)3%0.00,indirect promotions for more direct promotions and spilt CRBs salesteam into high-end and mass-en
31、d divisions.By actively lower the ASP,2%2%,(0.31),(0.38),(0.48),(0.42),(0.20)(0.40),by approx.6%in 3Q12,CRB was able to achieve a 4%YoY growth in,volume to 3.69 million KL(Snow brand accounting for over 90%of it),1%,(0.60),and consequently this led to 1.3%decrease in sales.,1%,(0.88),(0.80),2.80%,0.
32、93%,0.32%,0.43%,2.32%,0.50%,0.37%,0%,(1.00),1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,Continue to acquire market share.Backed by the support from itscontrolling shareholder and CREs own financial resource plus thesynergy from the joint venture partner SABMiller plc who holds 49%ofCRB,the unit was able to e
33、xpand its footprint in China via aggressive,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure:Quarterly underlying net margin&its YoY change of CREs food segment.Underlying net margin(left axis)0.78YoY change(ppt,right axis),organic growth and frequent M&A activities.CRB is already havingpresence
34、 in 22 out 34 provincial regions so far in China with 83breweries and annual production capacity of more than 17 million KL.,5%4%,0.10,0.500.00(0.50),Both of the market concentration rate and per capita beer consumptionvolume in China are still low,the potential room for growth and futureconsolidati
35、on is huge.We believe the production capacity of CRB will,3%2%,(0.60),(1.62),2.21%,(1.00)(1.50)(2.00)(2.50),continue to grow in a relative fast pace.,1%,5.04%,(3.22)2.82%,1.80%,0.81%,(2.83),3.43%,2.58%,(3.00),0%,(3.50),1Q11,2Q11,3Q11,4Q11,1Q12,2Q12,3Q12,Rebase product mix dynamically.Besides of its
36、low to mid endproducts with ASP ranging from 3 RMB to 5 RMB,CRB offers premiumbeer with ASP starting from 8 RMB to up to 80-100 RMB in selectivemarkets based on their consumption capacity and CRBs popularity.Asfor now,only minority of the sales are coming from mid to high endproducts(approx.25%in 3Q
37、12)but they deliver high growth rate(40%,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Figure:Quarterly underlying net margin&its YoY change of CREs beverage unit.(0.08)Underlying net margin(left axis)YoY change(ppt,right axis)(1.12)(1.00),YoY rise in 3Q12).Though the overall ASP of CRB dropped in 3
38、Q12 asa way to increase competitiveness in the mess end market,we do not,5%4%,(3.26),(2.07),(2.00)(3.00),consider the move to be a sign for CRB to forgo the mid to high endmarket.On the contrary,CRB values the opportunity to optimise itsproduct mix in the context of consumption upgrade and we think,
39、3%2%1%,(4.26),(5.48),(4.24),(4.00)(5.00),potential ASP rise will be a key for margin enhancement,though thepricing strategy in the short term will still depends on the market,0%,1.76%1Q11,6.01%2Q11,5.66%3Q11,0.92%4Q11,0.65%1Q12,1.76%2Q12,3.58%3Q12,(6.00),sentiment and competitive landscape.See the l
40、ast page for disclaimer,Source:the Company,Guotai Junan International.Page 3 of 11,CompanyReport,ChinaResourcesEnterprise华润创业(00291HK),5December2012,40,000,30%,0,51.3%,60%,0,14,000,35%,Net margin decline narrowed and with a better prospect.Thebrewery unit of CRE has been expanding fast during the pa
41、st few years,Figure:Yearly turnover&its YoY growthof CREs beer segment.Turnover(HK$mil,left axis),and sometimes at the cost of margin improvement.During 3Q12,35,000,Growth(%,right axis),25%,largely affected by costs hike(e.g.barley price and packaging cost up11%and 12%YoY)and higher effective tax ra
42、te,CRBs underlying net,30,00025,000,23.9%,20%,profit declined 5.8%YoY to HK$987m.However,partially offset bylower A&P cost and actual volume growth,the underlying net margindecline in 3Q12 has narrowed down when compared with the same,20,00015,00010,000,14.1%,10.5%,12.6%,14.5%,15%10%,period last yea
43、r.The management indicated though the cost pressure,5,000,5%,will still exist in 2013,however the rising trend of barley and packaging,21,535,26,689,29,491,33,207,38,019,0%,cost will be slower,which will then increase the operating leverage of,2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014FSource:the Company,Guotai J
44、unan International.,the unit and therefore provide support to the underlying net margin.Figure:Yearly turnover&its YoY growth,Retail:Expansion outperformed peers.,of CREs retail segment.140,000Turnover(HK$mil,left axis),Nation-wide footprint with multi-format strategy.As end of 3Q12,the retail unit
45、of CRE has in total 4,302 stores(of which 3,467 or 80.6%,120,000100,000,Growth(%,right axis),50%40%,are self-operated)across 26 out of 34 provincial regions in China withgeographical emphasis in Eastern and Southern China.The divisionsmain turnover drivers compromise hypermarkets,supermarkets,and,80
46、,00060,00040,000,27.1%,21.5%,19.5%,18.0%,30%20%,convenience stores under brands“CR Vanguard”,“Suguo”,“Ole”,”Blt”,“Vango”.In addition,the retail unit of CRE also has a list of speciality,20,000,55,140,70,088,85,157,101,763,120,080,10%,formats,under,brands,“Chinese,Arts,&,Crafts”,”CR,Care”,2010A,2011A
47、,2012F,2013F,2014F,0%,“VIVO”,”Voi.la!”and“Pacific Coffee”that mainly distribute luxuriousjewelleries,antiques,art crafts,health&beauty products,wine andcoffee.Going forward,the Company is expected to adhere to themulti-format strategy with an emphasis on building regional leadership,Source:the Compa
48、ny,Guotai Junan International.Figure:Yearly turnover&its YoY growthof CREs food segment.Turnover(HK$mil,left axis),in certain area,we consider CRE to be able to benefit from the,12,000,Growth(%,right axis),30%,synergies created from its multi-format platform in the longer period.,10,0008,000,28.9%,2
49、5%20%,Expansion supported top-line growth and will continue to do so.,6,000,11.6%,15%,The turnover of CREs retail unit rose 18.5%YoY in 3Q12 toHK$20,942m,which was mainly contributed by 4.6%SSS growth for,4,0002,000,2.0%,7.0%,9.0%,10%5%,the period and net increase of 493 stores(or up by 13%)when,8,3
50、06,10,706,10,920,11,685,12,736,compared with end of 3Q11.During 1-3Q12,the Company rolled out,0,2010A,2011A,2012F,2013F,2014F,0%,353 new stores and the management reiterated its original expansionguidance of 500 new stores for full-year 2012 and 400-500 new storesfor the year of 2013.In addition to
