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1、,邓敏强,张胤,2012 年 9 月 6 日亚洲经济简评研究报告预计中国经济复苏步伐放缓（摘要）,数据和外需双双走软在建筑领域活动进一步减速以及外需疲软的双重影响下，近几个月中国经济增速在较低水平徘徊。我们认为周期性指标恶化和出口不及预期是中国经济当前面临,崔历+852-2978-0784 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司,的不利因素，它们将令未来几个季度的经济增长弱于预期水平。宋宇,对政策放松前景的预测需格外慎重即将到来的政府换届和执行滞后可能在短期内推迟新支出计划的出台。此外，对投资效率的担忧意味着政府可能在将大规模基建支出用作逆周期工具的问题上更为谨慎。这样的政策前景颇具争议性：考虑到短期经济增
2、长面临的下行风险以及其它工具有效性的匮乏，中国政府或许仍需通过投资支出来支撑经济增长。,+86(10)6627-3111 北京高华证券有限责任公司+852-2978-6634,高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司将 2012 及 2013 年经济增速预测分别下调至 7.6%及 8.0%我们将 2012 及 2013 年中国经济增速预测分别从此前的 7.9%和 8.5%下调至,7.6%和 8.0%。商业投资和出口形势的预期好转应会为明年经济复苏带来一定支持。出口、住宅及基建领域建筑活动（及相关中长期融资）、机械销售以及商业,+86(10)6627-3112 北京高华证券有限责任公司,信心等数据都是我们在捕捉
3、转折点时需要重点关注的信息。在周期性因素之外另存挑战除了周期性因素之外，中国当前经济放缓也可以部分归因于经济面临的结构性挑战。我们在预测中国经济增长时还需考虑经济转型期的潜在增速、政策工具及其制约，以及国内储蓄及投资结构等关键问题。*全文翻译随后提供投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅,2,2012 年 9 月 6 日,亚洲经济简评,China:Slower recovery expectedWe are cutting Chinas growth forecasts to 7.6%and 8.0%in 2012 and 2013r
4、espectively,from 7.9%and 8.5%previously,on several developments(see Exhibits 1and 2):Weaker data:Current and leading indicators suggest that the economy has slowed again.Industrial output growth softened as it continued to work through the excess capacity builtover the last few years,while exports s
5、lowed and property investment decelerated further.The significant slowdown of property investment and construction-related activities,and morerecently that of exports,have been the key factors behind the growth disappointment thisyear.We estimate that August industrial production growth is likely to
6、 have fallen close to 9%yoy or below,compared to 9.2%yoy in July.Tougher global backdrop:Export volumes worsened sharply in July after a reasonablystrong upturn in 1H2012.Leading indicators point to subdued expectations for new exportorders.This,combined with our expectation of softer global demand,
7、has prompted us todowngrade our forecasts for export growth for the rest of the year and 2013.More cautious policy response than we earlier expected.The upcoming politicaltransition and implementation lags could delay new spending plans in the near-term.Moresubstantively,the government is likely to
8、be more cautious about using large-scaleinfrastructure spending as a countercyclical tool.While monetary policy should remainsupportive and budgetary spending will continue to trend up,demand impact from largepublic investment is likely to be more moderate.This policy scenario is controversial,howev
9、er:given the downside risks to near-term growth,and short of other cyclicaltools,the government may still need to resort to investment spending to shore upgrowth.In addition,a set of broader issues will underlie shifts of the economic structure andaffect growth in the next few years.Demand structure
10、:External vs.domestic.Exports remain soft,and the transitiontowards a sustained domestic source of demand is slow.Consumer demand hasbenefited from income growth,but the savings rate will stay high for structural reasons.Investment demand is likely to be more subdued due to the rise in capital inten
11、sity in thelast few years.Productivity gains,tradable vs.non-tradable:The transition towards a largercontribution of non-tradable sectors to growth requires a range of reforms to unleashproductivity growth and improve investment efficiency.Leverage development:Re-leveraging vs.de-leveraging:Balance
12、sheetconsiderations could affect the corporate sector more significantly than in the past,dueto the slowdown in profit growth and rising debt.Policy crossroads,short-term vs.long-term.Infrastructure investment has been theprimary policy tool during the downturn,as interest rate and income policies t
13、end not tobe very effective or actively used in managing short-term demand.Such investment,while quick in generating demand support,tends to imply long macro cycles.Links ofthis type of investment to long-term growth are also being scrutinized.In this light,consideration of the potential level of ec
14、onomic growth during the economic transition,policy tools and constraints,and internal saving and investment structure will be critical to putChinas growth in perspective.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,2012 年 9 月 6 日,Exhibit 1:Quarterly GDP path,亚洲经济简评,%chg20,ChinaGDPGrowthPath,GS,Forecasts18161412108,6420,yoyqoq
15、saann,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research estimates.Exhibit 2:GDP by expenditure,2009,2010,2011,2012F,2013F,GDPbyexpenditure(growth)DomesticdemandConsumptionHouseholdGovernmentGCFGFCFofwhich:manufacturingofwhich:infrastructureofwhich:propertyInventoryNetexportsExpo
16、rtsImportsGDPbyexpenditure(contribution)DomesticdemandConsumptionHouseholdGovernmentGCFGFCFofwhich:manufacturingofwhich:infrastructureofwhich:propertyInventoryNetexportsExportsImports,%yoy%yoy%yoy%yoy%yoy%yoy%yoy%yoy%yoy%yoyPPTPPT%yoy%yoyPPTPPTPPTPPTPPTPPTPPTPPTPPTPPTPPTPPTPPTPPT,9.215.010.310.69.42
17、0.223.420.633.711.70.74.610.93.09.213.85.03.71.28.89.53.04.31.10.74.63.80.8,10.48.87.97.39.39.79.410.17.112.80.42.019.113.610.48.43.82.61.24.64.21.50.91.20.42.05.03.0,9.210.49.59.49.811.310.213.44.312.30.80.812.016.89.210.04.63.31.35.44.72.00.61.20.80.83.54.3,7.68.18.78.59.27.48.911.06.05.80.50.34.3
18、5.87.67.84.23.01.23.74.11.70.80.60.50.31.31.5,8.08.28.78.59.27.88.910.79.03.80.40.05.05.58.08.04.23.01.33.84.21.61.20.40.40.01.41.4,Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research estimates.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,1,42,1,4,2012 年 9 月 6 日,亚洲经济简评We are revising our growth forecast for China in the rest of the year and 2013
19、.We now project real growth rates at 7.4%and 7.5%in 3Q2012 and 4Q2012.We cut ourannual growth rate forecasts to 7.6%in 2012 and 8.0%in 2013 from 7.9%and 8.5%previously.Growth headwinds:Weak data,global backdrop,and cautiouspublic spendingDespite some improvement in June,current and leading indicator
20、s suggest thatthe economy weakened again(see Exhibits 3-5).As a whole,the economy stabilized ata subdued rate of growth,as it continues to work through the excess capacity built over the lastfew years,while exports have slowed again.Industrial production(IP)growth decelerated to 9.2%yoy in July(vs.9
21、.5%yoy in June)and grew only 5%sequentially(seasonally adjusted),compared to an average of 13%annualized sequential growth in June.While domestic demandheld up in general,momentum has been too modest to offset weak external purchases.Inventorygrowth has remained high in both heavy and light industri
22、es,and large inventories and softerdemand have meant growth of commodity production has remained subdued.PMI indicators fellin July,driven by the production and new orders indices.Using a set of demand indicators andthe PMI,we estimate that August IP growth is likely to have fallen close to 9%yoy or
23、 below,compared to 9.2%yoy in July.Exhibit 3:Leading indicators have worsenedIndex6058565452504846,44,NBS Official reading,NBS Re-adjusted for seasonalityMarkit/HSBC PMI403836Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12Source:CEIC,Haver,GS Global ECS Research.Our esti
24、mates are based on a linear model that links IP growth to lagged demand indicators including export volume andcement production(as an indicator of domestic construction activities),and survey-based indicators from the current andlagged PMI.The best fit of the model is found by:IP_growth=+1export_gro
25、wth(-1)+2cement_production_growth(-3)+3PMI+4PMI(-2)+Where s are estimated at 0.05,0.1,0.37,and 0.47.All coefficients are statistically significant and of the right sign.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,5,2012 年 9 月 6 日,Exhibit 4:Steel and cement production remain subdued,亚洲经济简评,%yoy,3mma,SteelandCement Production,40S
26、teel(yoy,3mma)30Cement(yoy,3mma)201001020,Jan07,Jul07,Jan08,Jul08,Jan09,Jul09,Jan10,Jul10,Jan11,Jul11,Jan12,Jul12,Source:CEIC,Gao Hua Securities Research,GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 5:Inventory growth is still high,albeit decelerating from last year,yoy%40353025,IndustrialInventories,UpstreamDown
27、stream,20151050510Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.We expect weaker exports in the coming months as Chinas foreign sales realign withglobal growth.Export volumes declined 0.1%yoy in July,from an average growth of 5.
28、5%in1H2012,and 8%in June,a sharp break from the early trend(see Exhibit 6).The deteriorationwas mainly driven by exports to Europe(see Exhibit 7),and coincided with a similar decline inregional exports.Part of the worsening in July exports might reflect the short-term volatility and adelayed respons
29、e to the softer global demand in earlier months.However,the HSBC/Markit PMIalso worsened,driven by the lower expectation in new export orders.We expect exports growthto recover from July in coming months,but expect the average annual growth in 2H2012 toremain below 4%yoy.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,6,2012 年 9 月
30、6 日,亚洲经济简评The poor export upturn in July and the weaker outlook,combined with softer global demand andthe decline in our Global Leading Indicator(GLI),have prompted us to downgrade our forecastsfor exports growth for the rest of the year.Imports have remained strong,driven by continuedstock building
31、 in some commodity sectors(such as copper).We expect net exports to subtract0.3 percentage point(ppt)from growth this year before moving towards zero contribution nextyear as exports improve.Exhibit 6:Exports were strong earlier in the year,%yoy,yoy%,3mma,201510505101520,GLIheadlineRealexports(yoy%3
32、mma,RHS),40302010010203040,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 7:Exports to G-3(particularly Europe)have dragged down exports since June,yoy%chg,3mma60504030201001020,G3ASEAN,ChinaExports byRegion,Restoftheworld3040Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.高盛全
33、球经济、商品和策略研究,80,7,2012 年 9 月 6 日,亚洲经济简评Domestic demand has held up,although policy support has generally fallen short of thecommon expectation that stimulus will be put in place to offset demand weaknesswherever it emerges.Infrastructure investmentthe closely watched indicator of publicspending and p
34、olicy easinghas benefited from newly approved projects,and we expect furtherimprovement in the months ahead(see Exhibit 8).This should continue to provide demandsupport to the economy,although not sufficient to generate a visible rebound in production,in ourview.Cyclical headwinds,including weak cor
35、porate earnings,high inventories and continued de-stocking,a cautious business outlook,and a further deceleration in housing starts suggest thatinvestment growth will be softer than previously expected.Exhibit 8:Infrastructure investment has picked up following the rise in project approvals,yoy%,Fix
36、edAsset Investment,100FAI:InvAmount:ProjectNewlyStarted(3mma,yoy%)InfrastructureFAI(yoy%)604020020,Jan08,Jul08,Jan09,Jul09,Jan10,Jul10,Jan11,Jul11,Jan12,Jul12,Source:NBS,CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.First,we expect property investment to decelerate further,given the housing cycleand continued control
37、s on the sector.New housing starts declined 27%yoy in July,aleading indicator that property investment growth will slide further from September(9%yoy).Although housing transactions have recovered strongly in recent months,the inventory-to-sales ratio remains above its historical average(see Exhibit
38、9).We expect the de-stocking ofhousing inventory to continue into 2013,before housing investment starts to recover to amodest level of high single-digit growth.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,70,18,8,2012 年 9 月 6 日,亚洲经济简评Exhibit 9:Housing investment to stay subdued due to the high inventory/sales ratio,(mnsqm),(mont
39、hs),60,8citytotalsellableGFA(LHS),8cities12mthrollinginventorymonths(RHS),Forecast,16,504030,15 months frompeak to low during2008-2009 cycleAverage,1412108,6204,100,20,Source:Gaohua Securities Research estimates,GS Global ECS Research.Second,weak corporate earnings and increased leverage may weigh o
40、n businessexpansion.Manufacturing investment improved slightly in July.The decline in earnings(seeExhibit 10),however,was accompanied by a rise in inter-company debt(in the form ofaccount receivables)and short-term borrowing from banks.So far,accounts receivableremain modest for the economy as a who
41、le and below the levels in 2008/2009.However,accounts receivable for some upstream sectors such as metals and mining have shot up,suggesting financing problems for these sectors in the absence of a meaningful pickup indemand(see Exhibit 11).The financial burden of the corporate sectormeasured asfina
42、ncing expenses as a share of profitshas gotten some relief from the recent interest cutand remained well below that in 2008/2009,but has stayed elevated relative to last year(seeExhibit 12).Corporate investment is likely to be more cautious in the coming months,dueboth to the cloudy demand outlook a
43、nd balance sheet considerations.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,Ratio,9,2012 年 9 月 6 日,Exhibit 10:Industrial profits declined due to deceleration in activity,亚洲经济简评,yoy%130110,Industrialprofit(yoy%),yoy%25,90,IP(yoy%,RHS),20,701550301010,高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,103050Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 11:Accounts rec
44、eivable increased modestlyAccountReceivable/Monthly SalesRevenue Ratio1.5Accountreceivable/monthlysalesrevenue1.4Accountreceivable/monthlysalesrevenue(12monthrollingaverage)1.31.21.11.00.90.80.70.6Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.,50,10,2012 年 9 月 6 日,Exhibit 12:Financial burden remains below 2008
45、/2009 crisis levels,亚洲经济简评,ratio40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,IndustrialEnterprises:FinancialExpensesIndustrialenterprises:Financialexpenses/ProfitratioIndustrialenterprises:Financialexpenses/Sales revenueratio(RHS),ratio2.1%1.9%1.7%1.5%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.7%0.5%,Source:CEIC,GS Global ECS Research.We are caut
46、ious on predicting a large acceleration of public and semi-public spending toshore up growth,as recognition that short-term policies need to align with long-term goalsappears to be gaining ground.Infrastructure investment has been the primary countercyclical toolduring the recent downturns,as intere
47、st rate and income policies tend not be very effective oractively used in managing short-term demand.Such investment,while quick in generatingdemand support,tends to imply large macro swings.The link of this type of investment to long-term growth is also being scrutinized,given the decline of invest
48、ment efficiency in some areas.Asa result,policy easing could be more conservative both in terms of magnitude and timing thanearlier assumed.This implies downside risks to near-term growth as the economy works throughits own cycles,although it is arguably beneficial for framing the debate of the coun
49、trys medium-term rebalancing and appropriate policy tools.The upcoming political transition andimplementation lags could also delay new spending plans in the near term.This policy scenario is controversial howevera downturn will be politically difficult,andits impact largely untested in over a decad
50、e.In the absence of effective structural changes tomeaningfully affect consumption and fiscal saving,the government could again fall back on large-scale spending plans.高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,2,2,11,2012 年 9 月 6 日,亚洲经济简评Liquidity conditions are accommodative,leverage risingLiquidity conditions confirm the mo
