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1、2012,2012,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,Europe,PeriodicalGerman&Austrian,Date6 December 2012,EquitiesAndreas Neubauer,DVFA,Daily Newsflow,Head of Research(+49)69 910-,ATX:Company updates published Dec 05-06 2012 6.30am CETZumtobel(ZUMV.VI),EUR8.29 Hold Price Target EUR9.00Q2 results&conference call
2、recapMid-&SmallCap:Company updates published Dec 05-06 2012 6.30am CETBertrandt AG(BDTG.DE),EUR72.21 Hold Price Target EUR54.00FY12 previewEADS(EAD.PA),EUR26.58 Buy Price Target EUR40.00Marwans Christmas GiftINDUSTRY:Sector updates published Dec 05-06 2012 6.30am CETEuropean Pharmaceuticals Health C
3、heck:December 2012,Related recent researchGerman Stock IdeasAndreas NeubauerAustrian Stock IdeasMatthias PfeifenbergerToPPiX-German StrategyLars SlomkaGerman Stock IdeasAndreas NeubauerUpcoming eventsBertrandt AGAnnual financial statementWincor Nixdorf AGAnnual financial statementPrime Office REITRo
4、adshowKWS Saat AGAnnual General Meeting,Date27-Jan-1206-Jan-1206-Dec-1101-Dec-11Date06 December201207 December11 December201213 December,Pan European Chemicals Sector 2013 outlook-Dj-vu_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.
5、Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/
6、2012.,6 December 2012German&Austrian EquitiesEuropean Equity Research Analysts German&Austrian UniverseHead of German&Austrian Equity Research,Andreas NeubauerStrategists,+49 69 910 31900,Lars SlomkaAustrian StocksChristian BaderMatthias PfeifenbergerAutomobileJochen GehrkeGaetan ToulemondeTim Rokos
7、saBanksAlexander Hendricks,CFAFlora BenhakounCementLuis Prieto BartolomeChemicalsTim JonesMartin DunwoodieVirginie Boucher-FerteConstructionMatthias PfeifenbergerMichael KuhnConsumerMichael KuhnHarold ThompsonJamie IsenwaterRod WhiteheadGunnar RomerFinancial servicesAlexander Hendricks,CFAIndustrial
8、sPeter Reilly,+49 69 910 31942+43 1 53181 156+43 1 53181 153+49 69 910 31949+33 14 495 6668+49 69 910 31998+49 69 910 31928+49 69 910 31962+44(20)754-50791+44 20 754 76763+44 20 754 72852+44 20 75457940+43 1 53181 153+49 69 910 36642+49 69 910 36642+44 20 754 51886+44 20 754 75170+44 20 754 58492+49
9、 69 910 31917+49 69 910 31928+44 20 754 59835,Jan RabeInsuranceSpencer HorganMediaPatrick KirbyPharma&HealthcareHolger BlumGunnar RomerReal EstateMarkus ScheuflerRetailJames CollinsSemiconductorsKai KorscheltSoftwareMark BraleySolar TechnologyAlexander KarnickKatja FilzekTechnologyBenjamin KohnkeUwe
10、 Schupp,CFATelecommunicationMatthew Bloxham,CFATransportation&LogisticsAndy ChuSimon ChampionUtilitiesAlexander Karnick,+49 69 910 31813+44 20 754 56727+44 20 754 73560+49 69 910 31912+49 69 910 31917+49 69 910 31739+44 20 754 54252+44 20 754 58569+44(20)754-59904+49 69 910 31945+49 69 910 31955+49
11、69 910 31943+49 69 910 31955+44 20 754 58163+44 20 754 77650+44 20 754 51983+49 69 910 31945,Bastian SynagowitzBen FidlerPage2,+49 69 910 36126+44 20 754 54138,Deutsche Bank AG/London,6 December 2012German&Austrian Equities,Zumtobel,Hold,Q2 results&conference call recap,Reuters:ZUMV.VI,Exchange:VIE,
12、Ticker:ZUMV,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),8.299.0015.60-7.38356.8,Q2 results:op.performance bang in line,restr.charges largerZumtobel reported Q2 revs of E335m vs DBe E337m&cons E339m,adjusted EBIT ofE19.9m vs DBe E19.5m&cons E19.7m,reported EBIT at E16.1m vs DBe E1
13、7.8mbased on E-3.7m restr.costs(DBe E1.5-2m)and net profit of E10.7m vs DBe E12.1m,FYE 4/30Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm)Stated PBT(EURm)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),2012A1,28021210.370.2039.7,2013E1,30129290.540.3015.2,2014E1,33141410.790.4010.5,with operating performance bang in line,restr.charges
14、 have beenlarger than anticipated and led to the net profit miss.Components margins&EBITare slightly improved further qoq and pos.H1 FCF generation based on inventorymgmt rather than extended factoring.FY targets reiterated but visibility lower¯o challenges intactFY outlook of revenue growth and
15、 adj.EBIT margin improvement has been reiterateddespite challenging market environment,low(er)visibility&high macro uncertainty in H2,EBIT is expected to benefit from low comparison base&cost measures,launched in H1 and revenues expected to grow slightly dep.on success of newproduct launches(&helped
16、 by base effect,DB view).H2 outlook by segment and LED takeawaysBy segment,markets should stabilize(Q2 rev growth has stagnated yoy,as expected)and seasonality be a bit less pronounced vs last year in Lighting(H2 H1 in general)and Components continue on stabilized revenue run-rates.Here,mgmt reitera
17、testhat,while new ballast families have been launched,new LED converters&moduleswill still be launched before Christmas with initial pos.rev effects possible in H2 butmore significant ones only likely from next FY.Also,while new module developmentwill be a cont.process(along with new,increasingly ef
18、ficient LED chips),the lifespan of converters will be somewhat longer but shorter than those of electr.ballasts.For LED,revenues are reported up 57%yoy in Q2(vs+63%in Q1),with LED revenueshare now at 20%(18%in Q1),which is positive in terms of innovation pace but stillbringing along a comp.lower mar
19、gin profile&higher R&D requirements.Restructuring explained,continued fine-tuning on the agendaRestructuring has taken place in the ZT sales organization in D&DEN(based on toooptimistic investments&market view for D prev.),a Tridonic facility in CH(volumeproduction shifted to Dornbirn,c.30 staff mad
20、e redundant in CH),via downsizing ofmagnetic production in AUS&efficiency programs at various Thorn plants.Mgmthas acknowledged for the magnetic phase-out to get closer(possibly next FY,to leadto neg.one-offs from pot.closure/sale of 2 plants)and-25-30%market declinesbased on LED phase-in.Capacity f
21、ine-tuning and efficiency enhancement shouldremain on the agenda.In summary,we confirm in line op.performance but larger one-offs,see cont.challenges but restructuring positive&no need to change our ests for now.,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Matthias Pfeifenberger(+43)1 53181-,Martin Wilkie(+44)20 754-,P
22、age3,6 December 2012German&Austrian Equities,Bertrandt AG,Hold,FY12 preview,Reuters:BDTG.DE,Exchange:GER,Ticker:BDTG,Price(EUR)Price target(EUR)52-week range(EUR)Market cap(EUR)(m),72.2154.0076.25-46.76725.6,Fourth quarter numbers due Dec 6thWe expect a solid finish to the year.We expect Bertrandt t
23、o again grow solid(12%yoy)on the top line and do expect some E182m revenue.Furthermore we expect aEBIT of E20m,hence an 11%EBIT margin.The slowing growth rate when compared,FYE 9/30Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm)Stated PBT(EURm)DB EPS(EUR)DPS(EUR)P/E(DB EPS)(x),2011A57760604.181.7011.6,2012E70073735.262.1
24、713.7,2013E73074745.252.1113.8,to previous quarters is a pure function of the rising base effect.Outlook 13 will be in focusWe expect management to again provide a rather vague but positive outlook for thecoming year.While Bertrandts core clients in Germany should all continue to expandtheir R&D spe
25、nding we nevertheless believe that growth momentum will significantlytaper off.The discussion around FY13 momentum will clearly be in focus.Furthermore we would again highlight that Bertrandts business activities have a9m lag to the OEM performance.As such,a potentially weaker 13 would unlikely,be s
26、een before H2/13 FY14.,Page4,Jochen Gehrke(+49)69 910-,Tim Rokossa(+49)69 910-,Deutsche Bank AG/London,6 December 2012German&Austrian Equities,EADS,Buy,Marwans Christmas GiftPrice(EUR)26.58,Reuters:EAD.PA,Exchange:PAR,Ticker:EAD,Price target52-week rangeMarket cap(EUR),40.0031.20-21.8221,738.4,Bigge
27、r than expected share buyback drives 15%EPS upgradeThe long awaited announcement over changes to EADS shareholding and corporategovernance structure was significantly more positive than expected,driven by the,FYE 12/311Q EPS2Q EPS3Q EPS4Q EPSFY EPS(EUR),2011A1.47,2012E1.16,2013E2.59,much larger buyb
28、ack than wed forecast.The 15%share repurchase mops up most ifnot all of the stock overhang risk for 2013 and drives 15%EPS upside to 2014/15.Factoring this into valuation sees our TP raised from E37 to E40.Valuation iscompelling and we maintain our Buy.Solution found for block shareholder sale.Free
29、float rises to 70%The plan to deal with the major reshaping of EADS shareholding structure has been,Revenue(EURm)DB PBT(EURm)P/E(x)Stated PBT(EURm),49,128 54,422 56,9861,612 1,353 2,78314.6 22.9 10.21,393 1,632 2,957,announced.This will see Daimler and Lagardere exit their current combined 22.3%stak
30、es through an upfront placing by Daimler of 2.8%now,followed by a combined14.88%sale by both parties in 2013.The French state will reduce its direct holdingfrom 15%to 12%,with the German govt building a matched stake of 12%throughbuying the Dedalus holding and part of the Daimler stake.Spain will re
31、duce its,DPS(EUR),0.45,0.60,0.80,holding from 5.5%to c.4%.As a result of this transaction free float rises from 49%to,70%15%buyback far larger than wed anticipated.Drives 15%EPS upgradeThe 15%buyback announced for 2013 is good news at multiple levels.Firstly it mopsup all of the Daimler and Lagarder
32、e placement due in 2013.Secondly it sends apositive message about EADS FCF potential mid and longer term,with managementwilling to deploy a meaningful E3.3-3.7bn of cash on the buyback.Thirdly it shouldhelp alleviate some of the M risksThis deal has a significantly positive impact on valuation i)fro
33、m pure EPS accretion,ii)from buying back a significant number of shares at well below where we believefair value lies and iii)through removal of what for many investors has been adiscount due to corporate governance concerns.Reflecting these issues,our SoPderived TP increases from E37 to E40.Valuati
34、on is compelling and EADS is our toppick in the European sector.We maintain our Buy.Key risks A350 execution,FXrates,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Benjamin Fidler(+44)20 754-,Milene Kerner(+33)1 4495-,Page5,6 December 2012German&Austrian Equities,EuropeanPharmaceuticalsFocus stocksAstraZeneca(AZN.L),GBP2,
35、979.00 HoldPrice Target GBP2,850.00Bayer AG(BAYGn.DE),EUR70.30 BuyPrice Target EUR72.00GlaxoSmithKline(GSK.L),GBP1,345.00Hold Price Target GBP1,400.00Novartis(NOVN.VX),CHF57.90 Buy PriceTarget CHF61.00Novo Nordisk(NOVOb.CO),DKK919.00Sell Price Target DKK800.00Roche(ROG.VX),CHF181.40 Buy PriceTarget
36、CHF190.00Sanofi(SASY.PA),EUR69.45 Buy PriceTarget EUR76.00,Health Check:December 2012Health Check:your guide to the month ahead in European pharmaceuticalsWelcome to the December 2012 publication of Health Check,our regularexamination of the European pharma sector,offering a one-stop-shop for the mo
37、nthahead(and where appropriate,slightly beyond).In this edition,we highlightupcoming events in the month of December,in addition to providing the usualvaluation,performance metrics and IMS data trends.Roches Perjeta survival data at SABCS(4-8 Dec 12);CHMP opinion possibleFinal overall survival from
38、the CLEOPATRA study of Roches Perjeta in 1st-linemetastatic breast cancer will be presented at the San Antonio Breast CancerSymposium(4-8 Dec 12).Initial interim data showed that Perjeta was associatedwith a trend to improved overall survival(hazard ratio=0.64;p=0.0053).Roche hasconfirmed that the f
39、inal analysis was statistically significant but confirmation of ameaningful median benefit could help further improve uptake.Perjeta was approvedby FDA in June 2012 and an EU CHMP opinion is possible in Dec 12.Roche and Novartis oncology data at ASH annual meeting(8-11 Dec 12)Incremental data from N
40、ovartis oncology portfolio will be presented at the ASHannual meeting(8-11 Dec 12).Data will include further follow up from the ENESTndstudy of Tasigna,which provides support a correlation between early treatmentresponse and outcomes.Proof-of-concept data on LBH589(multiple myeloma)andPKC412(aggress
41、ive systemic mastocystosis)should improve confidence in thesenew(albeit modest)opportunities(filings due in 2013).Data from the SABRINA PhIIIstudy for Roches subcut formulation of Rituxan will also be presented at theconference.Abstracts show the subcut formulation was associated with non-inferior(b
42、ut overall higher)levels of PK exposure,comparable safety and as good or betterefficacy.The formulation could provide a helpful layer of protection to the franchisein Europe,given associated healthcare savings as a result of reduced administrationtime/burden(10 mins per dose vs several hours for the
43、 intravenous form).Priority review decision on Opsumit(Actelion);CHMP on Selincro(Lundbeck)A decision on priority review of Actelions Opsumit(Macitentan)for PAH is expectedfrom the FDA by the end of December.Although we(and we believe most investors)expect a standard 12 month review time,award of pr
44、iority would be a positivesurprise and increase confidence in Opsumits differentiated profile.A CHMP opinionon Lundbecks alcohol dependency drug Selincro could occur at the Decembermonthly meeting.Although we forecast limited sales for Selincro(DKr400m in 2016E)there remains significant upside if co
45、mmercial execution exceeds expectations.Sector view Underweight in PharmaceuticalsDeutsche Banks strategists recommend an underweight position in healthcare citinga tactically positive stance on the wider market.While relative performance remainsdependent on this,we see room for modest absolute retu
46、rns from our preferred picksas confidence in post-2012 growth prospects improves and pipelines mature.Our toppicks include Sanofi,Bayer and Roche in the large caps and Lundbeck and Shire inmid caps.Risks include pricing pressures,unexpected patent and pipelinedevelopments,and Fx swings.,Page6,Tim Ra
47、ce(+44)207 54-,Mark Clark(+44)20 754-,Richard Parkes(+44)20 754-Deutsche Bank AG/London,6 December 2012German&Austrian Equities,Pan EuropeanChemicalsFocus stocksAkzoNobel(AKZO.AS),EUR44.50 BuyPrice Target EUR56.00Arkema(AKE.PA),EUR78.01 Buy PriceTarget EUR92.00BASF(BASFn.DE),EUR68.95 Buy PriceTarget
48、 EUR79.00Lanxess(LXSG.DE),EUR66.09 Buy PriceTarget EUR80.00Linde(LING.DE),EUR131.70 Buy PriceTarget EUR160.00Syngenta(SYNN.VX),CHF371.60 BuyPrice Target CHF430.00Deutsche Bank AG/London,Sector 2013 outlook-Dj-vuSummary:Grinding out profit growth in 2013Thematically little has changed over the past 1
49、2m;the GDP outlook in major westerneconomies remains subdued,overall pricing is becoming more difficult and costinflation(labour,distribution,not just raw materials)remains a problem.Thesefactors,combined with the sectors strong performance are raising concerns.However,we note 1)many petrochemical c
50、hains are at low-to-mid cycle margins(not peak),2)numerous names offer niche growth/cost cutting,and 3)valuations arenot challenging.Consensus for 2013 is mixed and the key remains to avoid thosewith unrealistic forecast hockey-stick recoveries.Our top picks are Akzo,Arkema,BASF,Lanxess,Linde,Syngen
