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1、Session 1:SMEs Financing in the Asia-Pacific Region amid the Financial Crisis:Status,Challenges and Trends第一节：金融危机下亚太地区中小企业融资：现状、挑战和趋势 Dr Chris Hall CEO,Comnami,PECC SME Network LeaderChris.H,Workshop on“SMEs Financing in the Asia-Pacific Region:Crisis and Countermeasures”(June 8-12,2009,Shanghai Na
2、tional Accounting Institute),Background Framework Profile of SMEs 中小企业背景介绍2.The context of the 2008 Financial Tsunami 2008金融海啸情况介绍3.Financing trends for SMEs in APEC 亚太地区中小企业的融资趋势4.The impact of the 2008 Financial Tsunami on SME finance 2008金融海啸对中小企业融资的影响What have governments done to address the cha
3、llenges?政府的应对措施6.A vision of what could be done better to address the challenges 如何更好地应对挑战？Conclusion 结论,SMEs are important:they contribute about half the GDP,half the employment,and most of the job growth in APEC 中小企业作用重大：为APEC贡献了大约一半的GDP、一半的就业和大多数的新增就业岗位。There is a major economic and financial cri
4、sis about every 6 or 7 years.The 2008 crisis is unusual in that it is affecting so many economies at the same time.The big impact on SMEs is probably not likely to be felt until 2009/2010每隔六七年就会发生一次比较严重的经济和金融危机。2008年的危机的不寻常之处在于，它同时对众多经济体产生影响。其对中小企业的巨大影响很可能直到2009/2010年才感受得到。SMEs have proved resilient
5、 in adapting to previous crises经证明，中小企业在适应危机方面颇具韧性。Banks are the largest source of finance to SMEs,and supply over half of SME finance 银行是中小企业最大的资金来源，为中小企业提供一半以上的融资。There is a long term structural problem that real growth in bank finance has been low or negative.SMEs have been finding it harder to g
6、et bank finance for the last decade or so.长期存在一个结构性问题，即银行融资实际上一直是低增长或者负增长。过去十年来，中小企业获得银行融资的难度越来越大了。In the short term(12-18 months)the government and bank response is not likely to have much direct effect on SME Finance.短期来看（12-18个月），政府和银行不可能给中小企业融资带来很多直接影响。There is a now window of opportunity to imp
7、rove the management of risk by banks in lending to SMEs,and improve management of SMEs by getting banks,ICT suppliers,telcos and governments to work cooperatively.通过银行、信息技术提供商、电信运营商和政府的通力合作，现在有机会提高银行给中小企业贷款的风险管理水平，并且改进中小企业的自身管理水平。,1.Background Framework Profile of SMEs 中小企业背景介绍,What is an SME?中小企业的定
8、义,non employing 55%,1 to 4 employees 30%,5 to 19 11%,20 to 500 2%to 3%,99.9%of all businesses are SMEs,employing less than 500 people,98%employ less than 100,80%employ less than 5 people99.9%的企业都是中小企业，员工人数在500人以下。98%的企业员工人数不到100，80%的企业员工不到5人。There is no consistent definition of SMEs across APEC,but
9、the great bulk of SMEs employ less than 100,and most less than 20 people.在整个亚太地区尚不存在对中小企业一致的定义，但是大多数中小企业雇佣的员工数在100以下，绝大多数在20人以下。,large firms make up less than 0.1%of businesses大公司占所有企业数的0.1%不到,How many SMEs are there in APEC?APEC的中小企业数量,There are now about 77 million SMEs in APEC,about 30 million of
10、 them in China,.but there should be about 100 million in APEC,about 60 million in China亚太地区目前大约有7700万中小企业，其中约3000万在中国但是按常理看，亚太地区应该有约1亿的中小企业，中国应该有6000万。,There are big differences across economies in propensity to start an SME在创办中小企业的倾向性上各经济体情况迥异,GEM 2006 data,%of adult population占成年人口的百分比,People star
11、t SMEs up(entrepreneurship)as a result of:创办中小企业是出于：a)necessity(no job)1）必须创办（没有工作）b)opportunity(for improved income and wealth)2）出现机会（来提高收入水平）,necessity driven start ups will become more important in the next years 未来几年由需求驱动的初创企业会越来越重要,Source GEM 2008 Executive Report,For every 1 million people,the
12、re are about 50,000 SMEs.每100万人口之中，就有5万个中小企业。GEM suggests about 5%(50,000)people try to start a new business each year,每年约有5%的人（5万）尝试创办新企业，and of that 50,000,about 45,000 will not succeed.其中，约4.5万人不会成功.but 5,000 will succeed.但是5000人会成功If the successful start up rate is 10%of the firm population(50,0
13、00 firms for 1 million people,or 1 SME for every 20 people),then 5,000 will start each year,of which about 1,000(20 to 25%)are growth oriented and will need equity funds.如果初创企业的成功率是10%，那么每年将有5000个企业成功诞生，其中1000个是成长型的，将需要权益资本的支持。If about 10%(5,000)exit each year,then the SME population is steady and i
14、t renews itself about every 10 years.如果每年约有10%的企业退出，中小企业的数量则会趋于稳定，并且每隔10年更新一次。,not all who try to start-up,actually succeed 不是所有的创业者都会成功,What do these SMEs contribute?中小企业的贡献,Micro less than 5 employees 微型企业：5人以下,large firms make up less than 0.1%of businesses,contribute between 40%and 60%of employm
15、ent,and about 50%of GDP.大公司占总公司数量的0.1%不到，提供40%-60%的就业和约50%的GDP。Large firms usually destroy jobs,i.e.are net job destroyers大公司通常会削减就业岗位，可谓净就业杀手。,SMEs contribute about half of GDP,and about half of all jobs.About 20%of jobs are from medium,20%from small and 20%from micro中小企业创造大约一半的GDP和一半的就业岗位。约20%的工作来
16、自中型企业，20%来自小企业，20%来自微型企业。But SMEs,especially new micro and small enterprises create most of the job growth.但是，绝大多数的新增就业岗位是由中小企业，尤其是微型企业和小企业提供的。,Small 5 to 19 employees小企业：5-19 人,Medium 19 to 500 or so中型企业：19-500人,How does the Entrepreneurial Engine work?创业引擎的工作原理,大公司雇佣大约一半的劳动力，但是很少添加新工作岗位,大约70%的净工作增
17、长是由快速成长的公司提供的,小公司产生同时也摧毁很多工作岗位，工作岗位的净增长随企业的生命周期和宏观经济状况而变,How does the Entrepreneurial Engine work and what finance is needed?创业引擎的工作原理及融资需求,Fast growth firms need growth finance,which is usually equity(such as VC)快速成长的公司需要成长资金，通常是权益融资（如风投资金）The vast bulk of SMEs need working capital,mostly debt fund
18、ing.A larger proportion than usual tend to exit if finance is not available大多数中小企业需要营运资金，一般以债务融资为主。如果没有融资的话，较大比例的公司会退出市场。,The challenges in a downturn or crisis are that:经济低迷期或危机下的挑战有：more people have to start an SME out of necessity,not because of choice or opportunity;更多的人得开始创业，是出于生存的原因，而非主动的选择或者某
19、种机遇；these necessity entrepreneurs are less likely to have appropriate management skills for an SME,or the appropriate attitude,to help them succeed;这些被迫创业的人很可能不具备适当的管理技能，或者正确的态度来助其成功；It is more difficult for them to get finance,especially from risk averse lenders(eg banks)who might actually have the
20、 funds,but are not as effective at mobilising them;他们将更难获得融资，尤其是从厌恶风险的贷款人（如银行）那，他们可能有资金，但是没有动员资金的效力even though there are entrepreneurial opportunities arising from restructuring and bankruptcy/exits,a generation of growth oriented firms may not be able to avail of these opportunities because of lack
21、 of finance and smart money;.and即便企业的重组和破产会产生创业机会，一批成长型企业由于缺乏融资可能无法把握这些机遇。this leads to a slower economic and social recovery than is potentially possible,or it shifts the recovery to locations with more conducive entrepreneurial environments(eg the Japan lost decade becomes Chinas decade of entrepr
22、eneurial growth).这将导致经济和社会复苏变缓，或者使复苏转移至对创业有利的环境中。,what are the entrepreneurial challenges of the Financial Tsunami?金融海啸下的创业挑战,2.The Context of the 2008 Financial Tsunami Crisis 2008金融海啸情况介绍,Previous economic crises and SME impact 过去的经济危机对中小企业的影响,The 1990 Japan crisisbubble economy collapsed in Japan
23、,rising Yen.Japanese SMEs adapt by moving to China and Asia,often financed by Large Japanese firms 泡沫破灭，日元升值。日本中小企业移至中国和其它亚洲地区，一般由大型日本公司提供资金支持,The 1997 Asian crisisConstruction bubble in Thailand,supported by cheap US bank loans collapses as Hedge Funds force devaluation of Baht,and contagion spread
24、s.在美国廉价银行贷款崩溃的助推下，泰国的房地产泡沫破灭，对冲基金迫使泰铢贬值，危机蔓延至其它亚洲国家,The 2001 Tech Wreck T bubble collapses in USA,VC money moves to PRC.Economy slowed by 911美国的网络泡沫破灭，风投资金转而投向中国。911事件使经济放缓,2003 SARSMain impact on HKG and SIN主要对香港和新加坡有影响,2008 financial Tsunami?,GDP nominal growth(World Bank Data),Previous economic c
25、risis:96/7 Asian Crisis in Korea and Chinese Taipei以往的经济危机：96/7年韩国和中国台北的亚洲金融危机,GDP(1995=100)Korea and Chinese Taipei,Volume of bank funds to SMEs,indexed,Korea 1995,Chinese Taipei 1993=100,银行给中小企业的贷款额,Previous economic crisis:96/7 Asian Crisis in Korea and Chinese Taipei以往的经济危机：96/7年韩国和中国台北的亚洲金融危机,P
26、opulation of SMEs(index 1991=100)in total and manufacturing,Employment in SMEs(index 1992=100)in total and manufacturing,Lessons for the 2008 Financial Crisis:对2008金融危机的经验教训：Both Korea and Chinese Taipei had developed good SME policy frameworks prior to the crisis韩国和中国台北在危机发生前均已具备完善的中小企业政策框架The main
27、 impact on SMEs is lagged by about 12 to 18 months;the worst is yet to come in 2010对中小企业的主要影响将延后12-18个月发生；最糟糕的情形将在2010年出现Entrepreneurs and SMEs are resilient.Restructuring opportunities as Chaebol restructured allowed Korean SMEs to bounce back and catch up to Taipei within 2 years.企业家和中小企业都很有活力。重组机
28、会使得韩国的中小企业反弹回来，并在两年内赶上了台北。The ability to develop an internationally competitive industrial structure which is able to adapt quickly and take advantage of opportunities is very important in the face of a turbulent global environment.在动荡的全球环境下，培育能够迅速适应环境和把握机遇并具有国际竞争力的产业结构，非常重要。,From:Hall,C.and Harvie,
29、C,A comparison of the performance of SMEs in Korea and Taiwan;policy implications for turbulent times,(2003)Journal of Korean Economy,Vol 4(2)225-260.,Previous economic crisis:96/7 Asian Crisis in Korea and Chinese Taipei以往的经济危机：96/7年韩国和中国台北的亚洲金融危机,3.Financing trends for SMEs in APEC 亚太地区中小企业的融资趋势,W
30、here do SMEs get finance to be able to grow and survive?中小企业得以生存和成长的融资渠道,Debt债权 Equity股权,main sources 主要来源,stages of development发展阶段,seed microstart upoperations(working cap)growth,FFF,owner funds,microfinanceFFF,Banksowner,FFFbanks,suppliersangelbanksVC,angel,IPO,finance stockfinance flows,What do
31、we know of the pattern of finance to SMEs in APEC?亚太地区中小企业的融资模式,Data sources are limited,only a few economies have regular updated reliable information on SME finance needs and supply,and all of these are 2010 economies 数据来源有限，仅少数几个经济体对中小企业的融资需求和供给信息定期更新。In most cases the data are based on size of l
32、oan,not size of firm.大多数情况下，数据是根据贷款规模，而不是公司规模得出的。In fact most lending to SMEs is from Banks.VC is a tiny proportion.事实上，对中小企业的贷款大部分来自银行。风投仅占非常小的比例。Equity and trade finance provide most of the rest.余下部分主要为权益融资和贸易融资。,note:these are approximate figures based on modelling,银行是中小企业最大的资金来源，也是潜在的最大的信息、建议和指导
33、来源,备注：这些数据是在建模基础上得出的近似数据,Benchmark modelling of SME finance needs in APEC亚太地区中小企业融资需求的基准模型,Based on there being about 75million SMEs in APEC,and that finance is able to flow freely,so is available to all SMEs in APEC前提：亚太地区大约有7500万个中小企业，资金可以自由流动，因此可用于地区内的所有中小企业。10%SMEs are micro$100 each 50%debt 50%
34、equity10%start up$10,000 each30%debt 70%equity60%operating$50,0000 each50%debt 50%equity20%growth$100,000 each30%debt 70%equity.01%VC$1,000,000 each30%debt 70%equity.0001%IPO$10,000,000 each10%debt 90%equity,the distribution of SMEs by stage is likely to be中小企业在不同的发展阶段的分布,Benchmark pattern of SME fi
35、nance needs in APEC亚太地区中小企业融资需求的基准模式,equitydebt,suggests that there is a demand for a stock of about$4.5 trillion for SME finance in APEC in 2010,about 60%($2.7 t)equity,and 40%($1.8 t)debt.模式表明，2010年，APEC中小企业的融资需求在4.5万亿美元左右，其中60%为权益融资，40%为债务融资。,micro lending and start up finance is a tiny proportio
36、n,but important to growth and economic resilience小额贷款和启动融资占比很小，但是对企业的成长和经济活力具有重要意义,VC and IPO only go to a tiny proportion of firms,and only in a few economies,so most SMEs dont get access,banks provide the bulk of SME finance for working capital and growth银行为中小企业的营运资本和成长提供大部分融资,Stickiness in financ
37、ing 融资粘性,There is some evidence of stickiness(finance gaps)as growing firms move through stages,and change their finance needs,eg随着成长型公司达到不同的发展阶段，并更改其融资需求，有证据表明存在一定粘性（融资缺口）。,going from micro to start up or operating requires formal financing 从微型企业到初创企业或运营企业，需要正规融资,going from debt to equity requires
38、better governance 从债权到股权，需要更好的公司治理,going to public equity requires investment readiness 再到成为公众股权公司，需要投资意愿,equitydebt,The proportion of bank lending to SMEs in most economies has declined 银行对中小企业的借贷比例在多数经济体均呈下降趋势,Bank lending on small loans or to SMEs as a%of total lending has declined in most econom
39、ies for which data are available over the last 15 or so years过去15年来，大多数经济体中，银行对中小企业的贷款或小额贷款比例呈下降趋势,The proportion of bank lending to SMEs in most economies has declined银行对中小企业的借贷比例在多数经济体均呈下降趋势,.and the decrease is bigger than can be explained by inflation.而且下降幅度比可用通胀解释的幅度更大,%change in proportion of
40、bank lending to SMEs relative to large firms,Real growth of bank lending to SMEs is negative in many economies很多经济体对中小企业的银行贷款实际上呈负增长,94 to Asian crisis97 to tech wreck2001 to latest,Average real growth of bank lending by size and period,Real growth of bank lending to SMEs has been negative,falling对中
41、小企业的银行贷款实际上呈负增长,Asian crisis,tech wreck 911,Real growth of bank lending to small firms has been negative,falling对小企业的银行贷款实际上呈负增长,Asian crisis亚洲金融危机,tech wreck 911网络泡沫破灭和911事件,but real growth in bank lending to large firms has been positive,growing 但是对大企业的银行贷款呈正增长,Asian crisis,tech wreck 911,4.The im
42、pact of the 2008 Financial Tsunami on SME Finance 2008金融海啸对中小企业融资的影响,the factors leading to the 2008 Financial Tsunami 2008金融海啸的形成因素,the factors leading to the 2008 Financial Tsunami 2008金融海啸的形成因素,美国联邦基金利率,the factors leading to the 2008 Financial Tsunami 2008金融海啸的形成因素,followed by a sharp fall as th
43、e financial crisis set in 随后，随着金融危机的出现，利率陡降,steady increases in official rates to combat inflation,官方利率稳固上升以控制通胀,Source:http:/,technology allowed complex products to be created(eg securitised),traded,and leveraged 科技的进步使复杂的金融衍生产品被创造（如证券化）、交易和杠杆化。,2.“deregulation”moves of 1999 to repeal the Glass-Ste
44、agall act allowed banks(such as Citi,and Lehmans)to ride the wave of asset inflation.1999年的放松金融管制运动使银行（如花旗、雷曼）经受一波波的资产通胀。3.By 2007 this wave was shaped by a wave of SIV(Structured Investment Vehicles)write downs and Sub Prime defaults,and some bank runs from depositors(eg Northern Rock).By end 2007,
45、the wave then came from the finance suppliers,mostly banks,who ceased to trust each other,so the interbank rates(eg LIBOR)rose steeply2007年，结构性投资工具减记和次贷违约加重了这一波行情，一些银行（如北岩）发生挤兑事件。2007年底，银行变得互不信任，同业拆借利率陡升，是为第三波海啸浪潮。,4.This then led to the sharp fall in the share prices of Banks(by August 2008 Citi ha
46、d fallen 58%,RBS 15.2%,Merrill 62%).This wave led to collapse and/or restructuring of many banks or near banks(Wachovia,Merrill Lynch,UBS,Indy Mac,Washington Mutual),Investment banks(Bear Stearns,Lehmans)Insurance providers(AIG),Mortgage Providers(Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae),and private equity provi
47、ders(Allco,Babcock and Brown).随后导致银行股价大幅下跌，很多银行、投行、保险机构、抵押机构和私募机构倒闭或者重组。5.Regulators and central banks scrambled to inject liquidity to the markets,partly by taking a stake in the banks.This has changed the whole pattern of competition.监管机构和央行纷纷给市场注入流动性，部分还收购了银行股份，使整个竞争格局变了样。,the factors leading to
48、the 2008 Financial Tsunami 2008金融海啸的形成因素,lending growth to large firms 对大公司的贷款增长,real annual%growth,bank lending loans to SME of$500,000 中小企业,Real growth of bank lending impact of Financial Tsunami Australia 金融海啸对澳大利亚的影响：银行借贷的实际增长情况,Australia Bank lending to SMEs and Large firms;Real growth annual n
49、ominal growth less CPI at quarterly intervals by size of loan 澳大利亚银行对中小企业和大公司的借贷情况,bank lending to very small$100,000 小企业,Financial Tsunami of 2008,Australian banks were slowing their lending to large firms before the crisis(mostly because of rising cash rate pressures),but they further cut lending
50、to SMEs into low or negative real growth by end 2008.澳大利亚银行在危机发生前就放缓了对大公司的贷款，但是到2008年底时，也进一步削减了对中小企业的贷款，至低增长或负增长的程度。,source RBA tables D1 and G1,Growth of early stage and total VC in USA has slowed since 2001 美国早期阶段的风投和总风险资本自2001年以来放缓增长,Total VC(all stages)总风投（所有阶段）,Early stage+seed VC,Asian crisis,
