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1、Top picks,Buy,Hold,Hold,Buy,Buy,Sell,Hold,Hold,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,EuropeUnited KingdomMetals&Mining,IndustryPGM Market Update,Date8 January 2013Industry UpdateGrant Sporre,Deficits in all three PGM markets for2013Closures and restocking favour platinum from a trading perspectivePlatinum m
2、arginally outperformed palladium in 2012 due to the significantmined supply disruptions in South Africa.Our expectation is that 2013 couldunfold in a similar fashion to 2012,with platinum outperforming palladium andJanuary 1 pricing as a starting point.We think potential Amplats closures andsecond-h
3、alf restocking in the auto sector could deliver a strong 2H13 forplatinum.Palladium still has the better fundamentals over the medium term,but an accumulate on the dips strategy may be more appropriate given thehigher proportion of above-ground stocks.Platinum a finely balanced market in 2013,but ri
4、sks are skewed to the upsideWe continue to believe that the platinum market remains finely balanced for2013.Our base case supply-demand estimates suggest a net deficit(includinginvestment demand)of c.40koz,although the“industrial”balance(excludinginvestment demand)of 360koz would suggest a slightly
5、more slack market.Nevertheless,there are a number of risk factors that could push the marketinto a more significant deficit,the biggest of which is potential closures byAmplats(c.240-250koz).This would push the market much closer to a balanceat the industrial level in 2013,and it would then be in a
6、significant deficit overthe rest of the decade.Such an early 1H13 event combined with a potential 2Hrestocking could provide a number of trading opportunities throughout thecourse of 2013.Palladium another big deficit year,but risks are skewed to the downsideWe think palladium has the stronger under
7、lying supply-demand fundamentals,Research Analyst(+44)20 754-Anna Mulholland,CFAResearch Analyst(+27)11 775-Rob CliffordResearch Analyst(+44)20 754-Aquarius Platinum Limited(AQP.L),GBP67.00Companies FeaturedAnglo American(AAL.L),GBP2,000.50Aquarius Platinum Limited(AQP.L),GBP67.00Lonmin Plc(LMI.L),G
8、BP295.50Amplats(AMSJ.J),ZAR465.00Impala Platinum(IMPJ.J),ZAR162.85Northam(NHMJ.J),ZAR38.76RBPlat(RBPJ.J),ZAR60.00,versus platinum due to secular auto sales growth in regions in which gasolineis the preferred powertrain,substitution from platinum into palladium in dieselpowertrains and limited new su
9、pply potential.However,this outlook isconsensual and these strong fundamentals have not translated intocorresponding price action over the past year.In our view,this is a reflection ofthe relatively high level of above-ground stocks of palladium.For 2013,weforecast another big deficit of c.900koz,do
10、wn only slightly from the 2012edeficit of 980koz.However,the biggest driver is our forecast of a 4%increasein Autocat demand.The tailwinds driving the US auto market are unlikely torecur in 2013.Our forecast therefore rests on an increase from the more erraticChinese and Indian markets,a clear downs
11、ide risk,in our view.Rhodium part of the basket,or a basket case?We forecast the rhodium market to register a second year of deficits in 2013.However,we expect the deficit in 2013e of 27koz to be well down fromthe-78koz level in 2012e,as the rebound in supply outpaces a c.3.5%increasein demand.The k
12、ey driver in new supply is secondary recycling from Autocats,with some rebound in South African supply,dependent on the size of thecutbacks announced by Amplats.Although we forecast the next four years toregister deficits,the magnitude of these deficits is not large enough to depletethe near 490koz
13、of inventories built up during the previous four years.Whilethe rhodium price is at a decade low versus the 4PGE basket,we think that anyproduction curtailments will benefit platinum first._Deutsche Bank AG/LondonDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research repo
14、rts.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072
15、/04/2012.,8 January 2013Metals&MiningPGM Market UpdateTable of contentsImproving prices for 2013.3Structural preference for palladium,but risks favour platinum.3Platinum permanent closures at Amplats remains the biggest upside risk.6Platinum supply should increase marginally in 2013.19Palladium anot
16、her year of deficits,but the risks are to the downside.24Rhodium part of the basket,or a basket case?.34,Page 2,Deutsche Bank AG/London,8 January 2013Metals&MiningPGM Market UpdateImproving prices for 2013Structural preference for palladium,but risks favour platinumGiven the weak outlook for Europe
17、and the prospect of recovering production out ofSouth Africa,we would not have forecast that platinum would be the best performer ofthe precious and major base metals.When viewed from the 1 January 2012 startingpoint,this is indeed the case.However,the Y/Y performance is due to a late Q3 and Q4recov
18、ery due to the QE3/4 liquidity event,and of course,the now well-documentedsupply disruptions due to strikes in South Africa.This Y/Y performance perhapsdisguises the intra-year volatility.The average price performance(2012 over 2011)shows that only gold is in positive territory,with platinum,palladi
19、um,silver,zinc andcopper all down similar amounts(c.10-12%).,Figure 1:Metal price performance Y/Y from 01/01/2012ZincAluminiumNickelCopperRhodiumPalladiumPlatinumSilverGold,Figure 2:Average metal price performance 2012 vs.2011ZincAluminiumNickelCopperRhodiumPalladiumPlatinumSilverGold,-40%,-30%,-20%
20、,-10%,0%,10%,20%,-50%,-40%,-30%,-20%,-10%,0%,10%,Source:Thomson Financial Datastream,Deutsche Bank,Source:Thomson Financial Datastream,Deutsche Bank,We continue to argue that palladium has the better supply-demand fundamentals of thethree PGMs,with a secular trend in auto sales growth in emerging re
21、gions wheregasoline is the preferred powertrain,substitution from platinum into palladium in dieselpowertrains and limited new supply potential.These factors should see palladium in astructural deficit for the remainder of the decade,eating into the admittedly largeaccumulation of above-ground stock
22、s.In contrast,Europe(the driver of diesel powertraindemand),although recovering,is still expected to be weak,and the price differencebetween palladium and platinum encourages substitution.Even after curtailments,theplatinum market is in only a small deficit,which means the erosion of above-groundsto
23、cks will be slower than in the case of palladium.We still expect the chronic oversupplyof 2008-2011 to continue to weigh on the rhodium market.Based on this view,weexpect,on average,that palladium will outperform platinum in 2013,up 11%Y/Y versus8%.We expect rhodiums average price to be modestly dow
24、n Y/Y(-1%).,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page 3,8 January 2013Metals&MiningPGM Market UpdateFigure 3:Deutsche Bank PGM forecasts:2013e versus 2012,40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%,We forecast palladium tooutperform platinum on anaverage annual price basis,but the risks are skewed inplatinums favour,whichcoul
25、d see the metaloutperform on a Y/Y basis,Platinum,PalladiumAverageY/Y,Rhodium,Source:Deutsche BankHowever,we point out that the expectation of a growing structural deficit in palladiumis very much the consensus view.Therefore,to some extent,the palladium pricealready reflects the strong supply-deman
26、d dynamics.Hence,the risks of adisappointment are much larger in palladium versus platinum,in our view.As aconsequence,we expect platinum to outperform palladium on a Y/Y basis with 1January 2013 as the starting point(+15%for platinum versus+7%for palladium).In ourrisk matrix(detailed herein),we bel
27、ieve there are three upside and three downside risksfor platinum,while for palladium,we think there is one upside risk and five downsiderisks versus our base case.Being positive on rhodium presents something of achallenge for us,but we expect Euro VI legislation to have some impact toward year-end.A
28、lthough the movement looks extreme(+36%)versus current levels,our year-endforecast of US$1,400/oz is still 40%below the 2011 year-end price level.,Page 4,Deutsche Bank AG/London,8 January 2013Metals&MiningPGM Market UpdateWe made very modest changes to our forecast in this review,as outlined in Figu
29、re 4.Figure 4:Changes to Deutsche Banks PGM forecasts,Metal,2010,2011,2012F,2013e,2014F,2015F,2016F,2017F,Long-term,Platinum,NewOld%change,US$/ozUS$/oz%,1,6101,6100.0,1,7191,726-0.4,1,5581,5500.6,1,6691,6441.5,1,8001,8000.0,1,8501,8500.0,1,9001,9000.0,2,0002,0000.0,2,0002,0000.0,Palladium,NewOld%cha
30、nge,US$/ozUS$/oz%,5275270.0,734737-0.5,6556500.8,7137002,8008000,9009000,1,0001,0000,1,1001,1000,1,0001,0000,Rhodium,NewOld%change,US$/ozUS$/oz%,2,4832,4830.0,2,0052,012-0.4,1,2681,2680.0,1,2501,300-3.8,1,6001,6000.0,1,8001,8000.0,1,8001,8000.0,1,8001,8000.0,4,0004,0000.0,Rand,NewOld%change,ZARZAR%,
31、7.337.330.0,7.237.230.0,7.988.00-0.3,7.977.970.0,8.598.590.0,9.429.420.1,10.0910.090.0,10.8310.830.0,10.8310.830.0,Rand 3PGE basket price,NewOld%change,ZAR/ozZAR/oz%,10,05910,0590.0,10,50510,546-0.4,10,04510,0190.3,10,67310,5641.0,12,71312,7130.0,14,69514,6870.1,16,34616,3460.0,18,51918,5190.0,20,57
32、720,5770.0,Source:Thomson Financial DataStream,Deutsche Bank,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page 5,8 January 2013Metals however,this will be offset by improving sentiment,which should see metals withmore of an industrial bent benefit over those with more defensive characteristics.,Page 6,Deutsche Bank AG/L
33、ondon,10%,8 January 2013Metals&MiningPGM Market UpdateFigure 5:Drivers of the platinum market Y/Y in absolute ounces(2012e to 2013e),3002001000-100-200-300,koz,We expect secondary supplyincreases to offset theincrease in industrial demand,Autocat,Jewellery,Industrial,Investment,Primary,Secondary,sup
34、ply,supply,Source:Deutsche BankGiven the view that the platinum market remains finely balanced,we categorised eachof the risks to our base case in the matrix in Figure 8,taking into account the fivelargest regional demand components.,Figure 6:Platinum demand by use(2013e),Figure 7:Top five demand ca
35、tegories(56%of total),OtherPetroleum 5%3%,Medical&Biomedical4%,Autocat Investment(North(Global)America)6%Autocat,Investment,Jewellery24%,Autocat44%,Autocat(ROW)17%,(Europe)23%Jewellery(China)44%,6%Glass,5%Electrical3%Source:Deutsche BankDeutsche Bank AG/London,Chemical6%,Source:Deutsche Bank,Page 7,
36、High,Impactonourbasecase,Low,1,2,3,6,8 January 2013Metals&MiningPGM Market UpdateFigure 8:Platinum supply-demand risk matrix,High Risk,Upside RisksHigher than expected closures arisingfrom the Amplats review.We forecastc.290koz of closures.,1,4,Better than expected European vehicleproduction,combine
37、d with a higher thanexpected impact from Euro VI.,5,6,3,5,A rebound in Investment demand tomatch 2009/10 levels,Downside Risks,Low Risk,4,2,Higher than expected de-stocking in theChinese Jewellery market.Stronger than expected autocatrecycling in response to strong stainlesssteel and PGM prices.Weak
38、er than expected Global IP leavingIndustrial demand flat Y/Y,Low,Probability,High,Source:Deutsche BankWhile we present each of the risks in isolation,there are clearly some stronginteractions between each of the drivers.If we assume that primary supply does notincrease Y/Y,and actually declines furt
39、her due to a combination of a flare up inlabour-related strikes and a higher-than-expected level of curtailments,the net impacton the overall balance may be less than expected.First,investment demand maycompound the effect with an inflow into ETFs.However,a positive price response islikely to drive
40、further recycled volumes out of the Autocat supply chain and lead tolower Chinese jewellery demand,though lower demand or higher recycling within thejewellery sector.Although platinum performed better than we had expected through 2012,the degree ofsupply disruptions should have led to more significa
41、nt price action if the market were inany way tight.The rather muted price response is indicative of a very weak demandenvironment.Given our view of an improving demand outlook and only a modestrecovery in supply,we expected prices to average 7%higher in 2013 over those of2012.However,in line with ou
42、r view that a recovery in Europe is likely to be secondhalf weighted,we expect the price to end the year close to the US$1,750/oz level,which represents a 14%increase as of the December year-end level.Should Amplats announce permanent closures of 300koz,the market would be in amuch closer balance at
43、 the industrial level in 2013e,and would be in a more significantdeficit over the rest of the decade.,Page 8,Deutsche Bank AG/London,koz,8 January 2013Metals&MiningPGM Market UpdateFigure 9:Platinum market balance including potential curtailments from Amplats,8006004002000-200-400,Surplus,-600,2007,
44、Deficit2009,2011,2013F,2015F,2017F,2019F,Market balanceMarket balance excl.investment demandMarket balance excl.investment demand and 300koz of Amplats curtailmentsSource:Johnson Matthey,Deutsche BankLong positions on the NYMEX and ETF holdings remain at elevated levelsAlthough ETF holdings and net
45、long positions on the NYMEX have eased back off theirhighs,they remain at elevated positions.We have seen some modest outflows out ofthe ETF instruments we track(c.60koz)from the mid-September high of 1.5Moz acombination of some year-end profit taking,in our view,but with the ever-present riskof fur
46、ther labour disruption remaining.The net long positions on the NYMEX are over44,000 contracts,down from the high of 46,000 contracts in the beginning of October2012.Given these still elevated levels,we believe the platinum price could see somemodest near-term weakness,especially if production start-
47、ups proceed better thanexpected.,Figure 10:Metal inflows/outflows in platinum ETFs,Figure 11:Non-commercial positions in platinum,1600140012001000800,koz,50403020,K ContractsN e t Long,USD/oz,250020001500,600400200,100,1000500,0Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-13,-102002,2004,2006,N e t Short2
48、008 2010,02012,PHPT LSE,Platinum ZKB,MSL ASX,ETF Physical,Julius Baer,Non-commercial net positions(lhs),Platinum price(rhs),Source:Various ETF issuers,Reuters,Deutsche Bank,Source:Reuters,CFTC,Deutsche Bank,A year of de-stocking in the global auto market is likelyOur auto team is cautious on the out
49、look for sales and production for 2013.It forecaststhe global sales pace to lose steam,up 3%Y/Y at 83,606,000 units versus 5.6%in2012e.This forecast is more bearish than LMC/JD Powers forecast at 85,332,000 units,representing a 5.3%increase Y/Y.On a regional basis,our auto team forecasts anotheryear
50、 of declines in the EU-28 region,down 4%due to the uncertain economic outlook;modest 3%growth in North America,as US SAAR growth will likely deceleratesignificantly in 2013,as healthcare law implementation and fiscal headwinds are likely,Deutsche Bank AG/London,Page 9,8 January 2013Metals and flat s
