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1、GMAT作文驳论分析（上）,GMAT驳论作文目的是要考查你的批判性思维和分析的技巧（也包括写作技巧）。你的任务是对提出的论证进行批判，但是不要提出你对主题的看法。每个论证问题都包括两个因素：题目：一段长的论证过程。要求：分析论证的特别要求。,驳论分析,题目示例：The following appeared as part of an article in a daily newspaper.“The computerized on-board warning system that will be installed in commercial airliners will virtually
2、 solve the problem of midair plane collisions.One planes warning system can receive signals from anothers transpondera radio set that signals a planes coursein order to determine the likelihood of a collision and recommend evasive action.”,驳论分析,Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In you
3、r discussion,be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example,you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of ev
4、idence would strengthen or refute the argument,what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound,and what,if anything,would help you better evaluate its conclusion.,驳论分析,满分范文：The argument that this warning system will virtually solve the problem of midair plane collisions omits some im
5、portant concerns that must be addressed to substantiate the argument.The statement that follows the description of what this warning system will do simply describes the system and how it operates.This alone does not constitute a logical argument in favor of the warning system,and it certainly does n
6、ot provide support or proof of the main argument.Most conspicuously,the argument does not address the cause of the problem of midair plane collisions,the use of the system by pilots and flight specialists,or who is involved in the midair plane collisions.First,the argument assumes that,驳论分析,the caus
7、e of the problem is that the planes courses,the likelihood of collisions,and actions to avoid collisions are unknown or inaccurate.In a weak attempt to support its claim,the argument describes a system that makes all of these things accurately unknown.But if the cause of the problem of midair plane
8、collisions is that pilots are not paying attention to their computer systems or flight operations,the warning system will not solve the collision problem.Second,the argument never addresses the interface between individuals and the system and how this will affect the warning systems objective of obl
9、iterating the problem of collisions.If the pilot or flight specialist does not conform to what the warning system suggests,midair collisions will not be avoided.Finally,驳论分析,if planes other than commercial airliners are involved in the collisions,the problem of these collisions cannot be solved by a
10、 warning system that will not be installed on non-commercial airliners.The argument also does not address what would happen in the event that the warning system collapses,fails,or does not work properly.Because the argument leaves out several key issues,it is not sound or persuasive.If it included t
11、he items discussed above instead of solely explaining what the system supposedly does,the argument would have been more thorough and convincing.(335),驳论分析,一.驳论作文写作牢记三点：1.你的分析要严格集中在分析题目的逻辑合理性上，而不要在文中提出你对主题的观点。2.每道驳论作文的题目要求都是一样的。3.每道驳论作文题目都故意加入了一些逻辑缺陷（logic fallacy），你必须将其指出来并加以讨论。这算是正确答案的一部分。,驳论分析,二.驳
12、论作文的内容1.分析文中的推理思路以及证据的使用。2.评价题目论证思路的说服力（逻辑的合理性）。3.用合理的推理或相关的例证来支持你的批判。4.谈谈什么能够让题目的论证更有说服力或什么能让你更好地评价该论证。,驳论分析,写作时思考的问题：1.题目的结论是什么？2.作者支持结论的理由是什么？3.作者题目所依赖的假设是什么？（至少想一个）4.题目的逻辑是否可信？如果是，为什么是？如果不是，为什么不是？5.增加什么样的信息或证据可以加强论证？6.增加什么样的信息或证据可以削弱论证？,驳论分析,三.如何组织驳论作文最好能有独立的开头段和结尾段，还要有至少两个中间段对题目进行批判。1.开头段（24句）1
13、)简要复述论证；2)简要说明论证的推理思路；3)指出论证的逻辑上的可信度有多大。2.中间第一段（35句）1)批判论证的推理；2)批判论证的前提之一；3)批判论证的假设之一。,驳论分析,3.中间第二段（35句）1)批判论证的推理；2)批判论证的前提之一；3)批判论证的假设之一。4.更多中间段（35句）5.结尾段（24句）1)总结对题目的批判；2)谈谈如何加强论证或者还需要什么信息来对论证进行更好的评价。,驳论分析,四.GMAT驳论作文中常出现的推理错误以及应对方法 出题人故意在作文的题目中加入了一些推理问题和容易让论证受到攻击的证据。一般的论证都会包含34个错误。下面是最常出现的逻辑错误。,驳论
14、分析,1.在两个事物之间进行的弱类比 GMAT驳论作文的题目可能会通过与类似事物的比较得出关于某一个事物的结论。但是这样的论证过程其实是假设，由于两个事物在某些方面具有相似性，所以它们在其他所有方面都具有相似性至少在论证中考虑的方面都具有相似性。除非题目能够提供足够的证据来证明这一假设（当然，它不会），这个题目就很容易遭到攻击。,驳论分析,题型示例1：The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods,a processor of frozen foods.“Over
15、time,the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better,they become more efficient.In color film processing,for example,the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984.The same principle appli
16、es to the processing of food.And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday,we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.etc.,驳论分析,以下摘自奥林匹克食品公司（一家冷冻食品公司）给股东的年度报告：“随着时间的推移，企业学
17、会了更好的工作方法，从而提高了效率，因此加工成本会逐渐下降。以彩色胶卷冲印为例，1970年冲印一张35英寸的照片需要5天时间，花费50美分；到了1984年，冲印时间缩短到1天，花费也降低到20美分。食品加工的情况也一样。我们奥林匹克食品公司马上就要25周年庆典了，这么长的从业经历，无疑可以帮我们实现成本最小化和利润最大化。”,驳论分析,写作思路：1.毫无根据的假设：因为公司有25年的从业经验，就得出它能更好地处理问题。作者没有提出任何证据来支持这一假设。2.错误类比：从彩色胶卷冲印行业得出的事实是否适用于食品加工行业是很令人怀疑的。3.排除他因：效率的提高一定能导致成本的最小化吗？有没有别的原
18、因会导致成本的最小化？成本的最小化一定能导致利润的最大化吗？有没有别的原因会导致利润的最大化？（范文中未体现）,驳论分析,作文提要：Thesis sentence:This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.View 1:The authors forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods“long experience”has taught
19、 it how to do things better.View 2:It is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry.,驳论分析,范文：Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over
20、 a 24-year period,the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future.In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that“as organizations learn how to do things better,they become more efficient.”This principle,c
21、oupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry leads to the authors rosy prediction.This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.,驳论分析,First,the authors forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the grat
22、uitous assumption that Olympic Foods“long experience”has taught it how to do things better.There is,however,no guarantee that this is the case.Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption.Just as likely,Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing bu
23、siness.Lacking this assumption,the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.Second,it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry.Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similariti
24、es,thus making the analogy highly less than valid.For example,problems of spoilage,contamination,and timely,驳论分析,transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry.Problems such as these might present insurmountable(不可抗拒的)obstacles that prevent lower
25、ing food-processing costs in the future.As it stands the authors argument is not compelling.To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future,the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a r
26、esult of its 25 years of experience.Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate(证实)the authors view.(329),驳论分析,2.混淆因果关系和相关性或时间先后次序 许多GMAT作文的题目所依据的论断都是某事的发生造成了另一件事的发生。因果关系论断的基础可能是：两个现象发生的显著相关性（两个现象一般一起发生）；两者的时间关系（一个在前，一个在后）。这两者可能是两
27、者之间因果关系的一个表征，但是这两者都不足以证明因果关系的存在，除非论证能够考虑并排除所有其他可能造成结果的原因（当然，它不会），否则论证就很容易遭到攻击。,驳论分析,题型示例2：The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell advertising space in the Daily Gazette to grocery stores in the Marston area.“Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Dail
28、y Gazette will help you increase your sales.Consider the results of a study conducted last month.Thirty sale items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in the Gazette for four days.Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased,clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad.Two-th
29、irds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative.Furthermore,more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over$100 at the store.”Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.etc.,驳论分析,以下内容摘自Daily Gazette向Marston地区的食品杂货店推销其广告空间而做的广告宣传：“在Daily Gazette上登出选定商品的降价广告能够刺
30、激销售额的上扬。不妨考虑一下上个月开展的一项研究的结果：Marston市中心某家商店连续4天在Daily Gazette上登载30种降价商品的广告。每当有人采购这些降价商品时，售货员就问他们有没有看过这则广告，在受访的200名顾客中三分之二的人回答说看过。此外，超过一半回答说看过的顾客在店中消费超过一百美元。”,驳论分析,写作思路：1.相关关系并不必定构成因果关系：读过广告并不意味着是因为看了广告而来的，可以有很多因素促使消费者前来购买。2.缺少论证：购买的人大多读过广告并不意味着销售额总体上升。没有对比做广告前和做广告后的销售额，也许做广告前后的销售情况是一样的；即便是销售额上升，也有可能是
31、因为别的因素而不是广告。3.错误类比：即使这个例子是正确的，也不能说明其他店也会这样。4.真实性方面：引言部分告诉我们这是一则广告，广告只会展示对自己有利的方面，所以其真实性值得怀疑。（后两点在范文中未体现）,驳论分析,作文提要：Thesis sentence:This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.View 1:It does not establish a general causal relationship between these events.Other factors that could bring about this r
32、esult must be considered and eliminated.View 2:A much clearer indicator of the ads effectiveness would be a comparison of overall sales on days the ad ran with overall sales on otherwise similar days when the ad did not run.,驳论分析,范文：The conclusion of this argument is that advertising the reduced pri
33、ce of selected items in the Daily Gazette will result in increased sales overall.To support it,the author cites an informal poll conducted by sales clerks when customers purchased advertised items.Each time one or more of the advertised items was sold,the clerks asked whether the customer had read t
34、he ad.It turned out that two-thirds of 200 shoppers questioned said that they had read the ad.In addition,of those who reported reading the ad,more than half spent over$100 in the store.This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.,驳论分析,To begin with,the authors line of reasoning is that the advert
35、isement was the cause of the purchase of the sale items.However,while the poll establishes a correlation between reading the ad and purchasing sale items,and also indicates a correlation,though less significantly,between reading the ad and buying non-sale items,it does not establish a general causal
36、 relationship between these events.To establish this relationship,other factors that could bring about this result must be considered and eliminated.For example,if the four days during which the poll was conducted preceded Thanksgiving and the advertised items were traditionally associated with this
37、 holiday,then the results of the poll would be extremely biased and unreliable.,驳论分析,Moreover,the author assumes that the poll indicates that advertising certain sale will cause a general increase in sales.But the poll does not even address the issue of increased overall sales;it informs us mainly t
38、hat,of the people who purchased sales items,more had read the ad than not.A much clearer indicator of the ads effectiveness would be a comparison of overall sales on days the ad ran with overall sales on otherwise similar days when the ad did not run.In sum,this argument is defective mainly because
39、the poll does not support the conclusion that sales in general will increase when reduced-price products are advertised in the Daily Gazette.To strengthen the argument,the author must,at the very least,provide comparisons of overall sales reports as described above.(355),驳论分析,3.认为整体特征适用于群体中的每个个体 GMA
40、T驳论作文题目可能会用一个群体的情况来支持关于群体中某个成员的论断。除非论证能够证明该个体可以代表整体特征（当然，它不会），否则这个论证就很容易遭到攻击。,驳论分析,题型示例3：The following is part of a business plan being discussed at a board meeting of the Perks Company.“It is no longer cost-effective for the Perks Company to continue offering its employees a generous package of ben
41、efits and incentives year after year.In periods when national unemployment rates are low,Perks may need to offer such a package in order to attract and keep good employees,but since national unemployment rates are now high,Perks does not need to offer the same benefits and incentives.The money thus
42、saved could be better used to replace the existing plant machinery with more technologically sophisticated equipment,or even to build an additional plant.”Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.etc.,驳论分析,以下内容摘自Perks公司董事会正在讨论的一份商业计划：“继续年复一年地为员工提供丰厚的福利待遇和激励措施对于Perks公司来讲不再划算。当全国失业率低的时候，必须提供丰厚
43、待遇条件，吸引并保留优秀员工。现在失业率已经很高了，无需对原来的优厚待遇和激励措施死守不放。从中省出的费用可以用来购买技术先进的设备，换掉现在的机器设备，或者再建一个新厂。”,驳论分析,写作思路：1.从整体错误推断个体：全国总体失业率情况不能用于判断本行业的情况。Perks公司所处的行业可能并不能代表总体的失业水平。2.片面性：是否划算不仅仅取决于劳动力市场的情况。如果取消这些福利待遇和激励措施，员工的士气可能会下降，有可能会导致某些员工生产率下降甚至辞职，那样就造成较高的员工流动率，有可能会抵消把资金用于更换设备或建厂所带来的收益。,驳论分析,作文提要：Thesis sentence:Whi
44、le this argument has some merit,its line of reasoning requires close examination.View 1:The particular industry that Perks is involved in may not be representative of unemployment levels generally.View 2:The argument relies on an assumption which overlooks the peripheral costs of reducing or elimina
45、ting benefits.,驳论分析,范文：The author of Perks Companys business plan recommends that funds currently spent on the employee benefits package be redirected to either upgrade plant machinery or build an additional plant.The author reasons that offering employees a generous package of benefits and incentiv
46、es year after year is no longer cost-effective given current high unemployment rates,and that Perks can attract and keep good employees without such benefits and incentives.While this argument has some merit,its line of reasoning requires close examination.,驳论分析,To begin with,the author relies on th
47、e reasoning that it is unnecessary to pay relatively high wages during periods of high unemployment because the market will supply many good employees at lower rates of pay.While this reasoning may be sound in a general sense,the particular industry that Perks is involved in may not be representativ
48、e of unemployment levels generally.It is possible that relatively few unemployed people have the type of qualifications that match job openings at Perks,if this is the case,the claim that it is easier now to attract good employees at lower wages is ill-founded.Secondly,the argument relies on the ass
49、umption that the cost-effectiveness of a wage policy is determined solely by whatever wages a market can currently bear.This assumption,驳论分析,overlooks the peripheral costs of reducing or eliminating benefits.For example,employee morale is likely to decline if Perks eliminates benefits;as a result,so
50、me employees could become less productive,and others might quit.Even if Perks can readily replace those employees,training costs and lower productivity associated with high turnover may outweigh any advantages of redirecting funds to plant construction.Moreover,because the recommended reduction in b
