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1、PROBABILITY CLASSES AND GEOLOGICAL EVENTS IN GEOLOGICAL PROBABILITY CALCULATIONVJEROJATNOSNI RAZREDI I GEOLOKI DOGAAJI U IZRAUNU GEOLOKE VJEROJATNOSTIAuthor:Tomislav Malvi1, Miro urekovi1 i Igor Rusan21INA-Oil Industry Plc., E&P of Oil and Gas, Reservoir Engineering & Field Development Department, u
2、bieva 29, 10000 Zagreb2INA-Oil Industry Plc., E&P of Oil and Gas, Exploration Department, ubieva 29, 10000 ZagrebKey words: Geological probability, categories, events, probability classes, Pannonian BasinKljune rijei: geoloka vjerojatnost, kategorije,dogaaji, vjerojatnosni razredi, Panonski bazenSae
3、tak:U radu su opisani temeljni principi izraunavanja geoloke vjerojatnosti otkria leita ugljikovodika. Prikazana metodologija primijenjena je za procjenu potencijalnog otkria u hrvatskom dijelu Panonskog bazena. Upotrijebljen je deterministiki pristup koji ukljuuje pet geolokih kategorija (zamku, re
4、zervoar, matine stijene, migraciju I ouvanje ugljikovodika), procjenjujui na taj nain geoloke dogaaje kojima je odreena geoloka graa naftnog sustava. Nainjena je znatna redukcija vjerojatnosnih razreda te je izraun mogue provjeriti na razliitim lokalitetima ili stratigrafskim jedinicama za koje je n
5、ainjen proraun. Odabrani vjerojatnosni razredi ukljuuju pet numerikih I tekstualnih vrijednosti, I to redom: 1.00 za dokazani, 0.75 za vrlo pouzdano odreen dogaaj, 0.50 za prilino pouzdan, 0.25 za nepouzdani te 0.05 za neopaeni ili nepostojei geoloki dogaaj. Metodologija je transparenta, odnosno moe
6、 jednostavno biti primijenjena u gotovo bilo kojem dijelu Panonskog bazenskog sustava.Abstract:This paper considers the basic principles of geological probability calculation for hydrocarbon reservoir. Presented methodology is applied for evaluation of potential hydrocarbon discovery in Croatian par
7、t of Pannonian Basin. Applied deterministic approach included five geological categories (traps, reservoirs, source rocks, migration and hydrocarbon preservation), estimating geological events that could describe geological settings of petroleum systems. Significant reduction of probability classes
8、make possible easily check different plays or prospects that could be estimated. Applied probability classes included five numerical and textual values as follows: 1.00 for proven, 0.75 for highly reliable, 0.50 for fairly reliable, 0.25 for unreliable and 0.05 for impossible prediction or missing g
9、eological event. Calculation procedure is made in the form of freeware computer program. Such transparent methodology can easily be applied in almost any part of Pannonian Basin System.INTRODUCTIONThe goal of geological probability calculation is finding an appropriate numerical value, which can des
10、cribe the probability of new hydrocarbon discoveries on observed area. This procedure could be applied both in exploration and/or development of hydrocarbon reservoirs.Geological probability is defined as multiplication of the main geological factors or categories that define petroleum system. Relia
11、bility of data has the extraordinary importance. There is always balance between invested funds and collected data depends on reliability of geological database, predicted size of potential discovery and company budget. First step in that process of several activities is estimation of geological pro
12、bability, calculated from acquired data.Testing dataset was collected from regional studies published for southern part of the Drava depression and the Bjelovar subdepression (Malvi, 1998, 2003). This mature area included all relevant geological categories stratigraphically described in Neogene and
13、pre-Neogene sediments (Figure 1). Thickness of Neogene-Quaternary clastic sediments is mostly up to 3000 meters, with Mesozoic and Palaeozoic rocks in the basement. The highest hydrocarbon potential is attached to Lower and Middle Miocene coarse-grained clastites, accompanied with fractured and weat
14、hered basement rocks in unique hydrodynamic unit. Lower and Middle Miocene reservoirs and traps are relative shallow, located between 800 and 1500 meters. The second reservoir unit consists of Lower Pontian sandstone members. Unfortunately, these sandstones are characterized with very instable reser
15、voir properties and depth shallower than 1000 meters, what makes possible to hydrocarbon escaping along the faults as well as water degradation.Figure 1. Categories of hydrocarbon system in analyzed area (Malvi et al., 2005)Source rocks (Ottnangian to Badenian ages) are assumed inside two major sync
16、lines of subdepression, on depth between 1600 and 2500 meters. Catagenesis phase is reached only in the deepest parts, and it is why significant part of hydrocarbons migrated from northwestern part of the Drava depression. There are proven source rocks represented by mudstones, marls and siltites of
17、 Lower Miocene to Badenian age at depths greater than 3000 meters (Baric et al., 1998). The potential for new hydrocarbon systems was calculated via five independent geological categories: (i) Structures; (ii) Reservoirs; (iii) Migration; (iv) Source rocks; and (v) Preservation of hydrocarbons. Calc
18、ulation can be done for any play or prospect. Brown and Rose (2001) defined play as operational and prospect as economic unit. Rose (2001) and White (1992) described play as several, geologically similar, fields, discoveries or prospects. Here, the term play was used as substitution for stratigraphi
19、c interval(s) where are already discovered economic hydrocarbon reserves. There are two such plays: (a) basement rocks and Miocene breccia and (c) Pannonian and Pontian sandstones. Mostly structural traps inside analyzed area were selected from structural maps and palinspastic sections (Malvic, 1998
20、, 2003). GEOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES VIA CATEGORIESGeological probability calculation procedures are well-known and simple tool for petroleum system description for decades. Generally, such calculation could be done allowing expert(s) to estimate probabilities of particular geological categories, using
21、 numerical values in the range 0.0-1.0 and using geological probability tables published for different petroleum provinces around the world. The approach applied in this paper was based on evaluation of five geological categories (according White, 1993): Category 1: probability of TRAP; Category 2:
22、probability of RESERVOIR; Category 3: probability of SOURCE ROCKS; Category 4: probability of MIGRATION; Category 5: probability of HC PRESERVATION.Multiplication of these categories final result in Probability of Success of discovery:(1)The appropriate geological database, including characteristic
23、geological categories and events, was derived from available dataset published in earlier regional study of the Bjelovar subdepression (Malvic, 1998, 2003). This database was organized in Access, and linked to executive computer code programmed in DelphiTM language (Brki et al., 2006), called GeoPro
24、b Modeling 1.0.2 (Figure 3). The program is freeware.Figure 3. POS calculation in GeoProb Modeling 1.0.2Each geological category could be evaluated from the different type of data, with very various qualities. Seismic mostly plays major role as base for structural and sometimes also stratigraphic in
25、terpretation. Addition important information is eventually existing production in analyzed play or close to estimated prospect. If such production exists, potential discovery can be classified as potential (not only hypothetical). PROBABILITY CLASSESGeological categories are always described through
26、 several probability classes). Each class has unique discrete numerical values in the range 0 and 1 that describes probability to occur selected event(s). We selected (only) five classes to correlate probability event by classification of reserves. As we know reserves as proven, possible, speculativ
27、e and so on, there is deeply geological sense that such ranking cab be also applied in determination of petroleum system that include such reserves. It means that geological event or category can also be proven, highly or fairly probable, hypothetical or missing. According to such qualification geol
28、ogical events are described as: 1.00 for event in play/prospect described as “Proven”; 0.75 for event in play/prospect described as “Highly reliable prediction”; 0.50 for event in play/prospect described as “Fairly reliable prediction”; 0.25 for event in play/prospect described as “Unreliable predic
29、tion”; 0.05 for event in play/prospect described as “Missing/Undefined parameter”.There is selected 62 geological events (and more than 100 options) though 5 categories and special database (Figure 3), as part of computer program GeoProb 1.0.2.Figure 3. Database with 62 geological events classified
30、in five probability classesDISCUSSIONPresent computer program can be used for geological probability calculation in any Neogene petroleum zone (play or prospect) in the southern part of Drava depression or the Bjelovar subdepression. Also, it can be applied in both in the entire Sava and Drava depre
31、ssions, without any or with minor modifications represented in carefully re-selection of geological events.The proposed geological database represents is based on the five probability classes: 1.00 (proven), 0.75 (highly reliable predicted), 0.50 (fairly reliable predicted), 0.25 (unreliable predict
32、ed) and 0.05 (missing geological event).It would be useful presented methodology upgrades by additional tool for estimation of seismic and production data. Both of these two groups included important information on reliability of data used for geological events selection.REFERENCESBrki, N., T. Malvi
33、 and I. Rusan, 2006, GeoProb Modeling 1.0 (computer program): Zagreb, (freeware).Brown, P. J., and P. R. Rose, 2001, Plays and Concessions A Straightforward Method for Assessing Volumes, Value, and Chance (poster): AAPG Annual Meeting, Search and Discovery article #40024.Malvi, T., 1998, Strukturni
34、i tektonski odnosi, te znaajke ugljikovodika ire okolice naftnoga polja Galovac-Pavljani: Zagreb, Master thesis, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, 111 p.Malvi, T., 2003, Oil-Geological Relations and Probability of Discovering New Hydrocarbon Reserves in the Bjelovar Sag: Zagreb,
35、Ph.D. Dissertation, Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, 123 p.Malvi, T., J. Veli, and Z. Peh, 2005, Qualitative-Quantitative Analyses of the Influence of Depth and Lithological Composition on Lower Pontian Sandstone Porosity in the Central Part of Bjelovar Sag (Croatia): Geologia C
36、roatica, v. 58, p. 73-85.Rose, P. R., 2001, Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures: Tulsa, AAPG Methods in Exploration Series, 12, 164 p. White, D. A., 1992, Selecting and Assessing Plays, in R. Steinmets, ed., AAPG Business of Petroleum Exploration: Treatise of Petroleum Geo
37、logy, Chapter 8: Tulsa, p. 87-94.White, D. A., 1993, Geologic Risking Guide for Prospects and Plays: AAPG Bulletin, v. 77, p. 2048-2061.我的大学爱情观1、什么是大学爱情：大学是一个相对宽松，时间自由，自己支配的环境，也正因为这样，培植爱情之花最肥沃的土地。大学生恋爱一直是大学校园的热门话题，恋爱和学业也就自然成为了大学生在校期间面对的两个主要问题。恋爱关系处理得好、正确，健康，可以成为学习和事业的催化剂，使人学习努力、成绩上升；恋爱关系处理的不当，不健康，可能
38、分散精力、浪费时间、情绪波动、成绩下降。因此，大学生的恋爱观必须树立在健康之上，并且树立正确的恋爱观是十分有必要的。因此我从下面几方面谈谈自己的对大学爱情观。2、什么是健康的爱情：1) 尊重对方，不显示对爱情的占有欲，不把爱情放第一位，不痴情过分；2) 理解对方，互相关心，互相支持，互相鼓励，并以对方的幸福为自己的满足; 3) 是彼此独立的前提下结合；3、什么是不健康的爱情：1)盲目的约会，忽视了学业;2)过于痴情，一味地要求对方表露爱的情怀，这种爱情常有病态的夸张;3)缺乏体贴怜爱之心，只表现自己强烈的占有欲;4)偏重于外表的追求;4、大学生处理两人的在爱情观需要三思：1. 不影响学习：大学
39、恋爱可以说是一种必要的经历，学习是大学的基本和主要任务，这两者之间有错综复杂的关系，有的学生因为爱情，过分的忽视了学习，把感情放在第一位；学习的时候就认真的去学，不要去想爱情中的事，谈恋爱的时候用心去谈，也可以交流下学习，互相鼓励，共同进步。2. 有足够的精力：大学生活，说忙也会很忙，但说轻松也是相对会轻松的！大学生恋爱必须合理安排自身的精力，忙于学习的同时不能因为感情的事情分心，不能在学习期间，放弃学习而去谈感情，把握合理的精力，分配好学习和感情。3、 有合理的时间；大学时间可以分为学习和生活时间，合理把握好学习时间和生活时间的“度”很重要；学习的时候，不能分配学习时间去安排两人的在一起的事
40、情，应该以学习为第一；生活时间，两人可以相互谈谈恋爱，用心去谈，也可以交流下学习，互相鼓励，共同进步。5、大学生对爱情需要认识与理解，主要涉及到以下几个方面：（一） 明确学生的主要任务“放弃时间的人，时间也会放弃他。”大学时代是吸纳知识、增长才干的时期。作为当代大学生，要认识到现在的任务是学习学习做人、学习知识、学习为人民服务的本领。在校大学生要集中精力，投入到学习和社会实践中，而不是因把过多的精力、时间用于谈情说爱浪费宝贵的青春年华。因此，明确自己的目标，规划自己的学习道路，合理分配好学习和恋爱的地位。（二） 树林正确的恋爱观提倡志同道合、有默契、相互喜欢的爱情：在恋人的选择上最重要的条件应
41、该是志同道合，思想品德、事业理想和生活情趣等大体一致。摆正爱情与学习、事业的关系：大学生应该把学习、事业放在首位，摆正爱情与学习、事业的关系，不能把宝贵的大学时间，锻炼自身的时间都用于谈情说有爱而放松了学习。 相互理解、相互信任，是一份责任和奉献。爱情是奉献而不时索取，是拥有而不是占有。身边的人与事时刻为我们敲响警钟，不再让悲剧重演。生命只有一次，不会重来，大学生一定要树立正确的爱情观。（三） 发展健康的恋爱行为 在当今大学校园，情侣成双入对已司空见惯。抑制大学生恋爱是不实际的，大学生一定要发展健康的恋爱行为。与恋人多谈谈学习与工作，把恋爱行为限制在社会规范内，不致越轨，要使爱情沿着健康的道路
42、发展。正如马克思所说：“在我看来，真正的爱情是表现在恋人对他的偶像采取含蓄、谦恭甚至羞涩的态度，而绝不是表现在随意流露热情和过早的亲昵。”（四） 爱情不是一件跟风的事儿。很多大学生的爱情实际上是跟风的结果，是看到别人有了爱情，看到别人幸福的样子（注意，只是看上去很美），产生了羊群心理，也就花了大把的时间和精力去寻找爱情（五） 距离才是保持爱情之花常开不败的法宝。爱情到底需要花多少时间，这是一个很大的问题。有的大学生爱情失败，不是因为男女双方在一起的时间太少，而是因为他们在一起的时间太多。相反，很多大学生恋爱成功，不是因为男女双方在一起的时间太少，而是因为他们准确地把握了在一起的时间的多少程度。
43、（六） 爱情不是自我封闭的二人世界。很多人过分的活在两人世界，对身边的同学，身边好友渐渐的失去联系，失去了对话，生活中只有彼此两人；班级活动也不参加，社外活动也不参加，每天除了对方还是对方，这样不利于大学生健康发展，不仅影响学习，影响了自身交际和合作能力。总结：男女之间面对恋爱，首先要摆正好自己的心态，树立自尊、自爱、自强、自重应有的品格，千万不要盲目地追求爱，也不宜过急追求爱，要分清自己的条件是否成熟。要树立正确的恋爱观，明确大学的目的，以学习为第一；规划好大学计划，在不影响学习的条件下，要对恋爱认真，专一，相互鼓励，相互学习，共同进步；认真对待恋爱观，做健康的恋爱；总之，我们大学生要树立正确的恋爱观念，让大学的爱情成为青春记忆里最美的风景，而不是终身的遗憾！
