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1、2007年SP行业走向调查分析报告SP是否已走到生存拐点明年转型路上能否轻松 2006年，对于中国的SP(无线服务提供商)来说是形势十分严峻的一年，成为SP历史的分水岭。SP从此已经结束了过去那种轻松“圈钱”的时代。 对于SP的监管越来越严厉，SP违规越来越难；运营商不断加强与CP（内容提供商）的合作力度，提升产业链的主导地位，SP的生存空间越来越小。SP究竟该往何处去？2006年寒冬能否很快过去，2007年的春天又能不能给这个行业带来些温暖呢？ 争议话题：SP究竟是持续萎缩，行业陷入整体困境；还是纵向上面向3G开发手机电视等新业务，横向上兼并收购，大SP开始培育规模和品牌；还是向上下游延伸，
2、转做软件商或内容商 综述： 2006年3月，信息产业部宣布启动“阳光绿色工程”，围绕“治理违法不良信息，倡导绿色手机文化”主题开展5项具体活动：手机短信息治理、移动信息服务治理、倡导“绿色手机”文化、统一通信网络短消息服务提供商(SP)代码以及电话业务用户实名制管理工作，其目标直指1.7万家增值服务提供商中专门爱打“擦边球”的SP们。 6月初，中国移动向其移动梦网合作SP下发了关于近期加强移动梦网业务规范管理的通知，即“中国移动11条军规”，对SP的监管力度大大加强。 6月中旬，信息产业部召开专门会议，部署“治理和规范移动信息服务业务资费和收费行为专项活动”，对SP整治工作大步推进。 7月10
3、日，是SP执行中国移动新规的第一天。这一政策简直如一道晴空霹雳劈向SP。就在消息公布当天，纳斯达克中国概念股全线下跌。SP纷纷表示，下半年业务将受到重大影响。新浪、TOM、空中网等纷纷小调2006年营收预测。 SP“二次确认”经过一段时间的实施，各大SP的无线增值业务收入都受到了极大影响，有的业绩下滑了70，众多公司开始转型、裁员，SP行业一片风声鹤唳。 10月11日，被看做是整治SP风暴“最终版”的信息产业部关于规范移动信息服务业务资费和收费行为的通知正式开始实施，该规定对移动信息费服务业务提出了极其细致的业务管理要求，并再次明确“二次确认”制度。同时，中移动有关专项整治活动-对SP业务的检
4、查于11月结束并把总结结果上报信息产业部。 除了政策的挤压外，对于SP来说，运营商进入SP的步伐也直接冲击着行业的格局。7月18日，中国移动副总裁鲁向东宣布，M.Music无线音乐俱乐部正式成立。俱乐部成员包括国际四大唱片公司和国内主流唱片公司、门户网站和大型专业SP、手机终端厂商以及音乐传媒。 虽然鲁向东公开强调了自身的定位-“中移动不可能通吃,也不会在无线互联网行业里做垄断,希望能够跟互联网、SP所有从业者们共同打造一个稳定共赢的产业链。”但是SP心里很清除自己的生存空间已经很小了。 2007年，SP该走向何方？ 访谈：SP企业、运营商 虽然目前时间已经远离了整治风暴的中心，但对于SP的未
5、来发展，无论是运营商还是SP均心存忌讳，不愿意公开表态。这里也只能以匿名的方式说明他们的观点。 一位负责增值业务的运营商人士接受记者采访时坦然接受了运营商在不断强化主导产业链意图的说法。但对于运营商很快要把SP全部清理掉的传言他给予了否认。 “运营商的独特地位必然决定了它能够而且需要在整个产业链中发挥主导作用。但运营商不可能自己来做所有的SP，运营商也做不了。所以SP会依然存在，不会被取消。”他表示，“SP未来是否还会继续存在这要取决于整个无线增值业务的运营体制，短期来看，SP还会继续保留。” 一位深圳SP企业的领导显然也对目前的形势看的非常透彻。他说，“不断强化的监管措施的确净化了市场，改变
6、了过去SP市场的混乱局面，这是积极的一面。但是有些措施的施行却缺乏一定的合理性，而只是一味为了达到清理SP的目的。比如广东移动实行的彩铃竞价是一个十分荒唐的事情，这种不公平的原则导致了不公平的竞争，扰乱了正常的市场竞争秩序。大量SP热心于竞争，使得整个市场十分混乱，也损害了整个产业链。” 他表示，“目前来看，SP的前景并不光明。未来SP如何生存？当前只有两条途径：一向CP转型或者自身就有丰富的内容资源。像华友世纪以6000万元收购了飞乐唱片60%股份，并以3500万元控股华谊兄弟音乐以及1800万元收购鸟人艺术30%股份等，这些举动都标志着SP正在试图进一步向CP领域转型。” “但现在好的内容
7、也不一定能赚钱，还是要看渠道的推广能力。主要的推广渠道就是媒体合作、地面推广、网站联盟、自消费、群发、捆绑，前面3个基本赚不到什么钱，后面3个有渠道的话利润可观。虽然目前有些渠道被禁止，但sp总有办法。而且运营商也指着这块收入呢，不能真的全做死了。数据业务全做死了，将来怎么办，还上3G干嘛？所以目前来说，渠道和整合资源的能力对SP未来的生存来说很重要。” 这位SP企业老总的看法也得到了运营商人士的认同。运营商人士表示，“运营商还是需要SP的，但这些SP是具有一定实力的企业。要想能够继续生存和发展就要在内容和渠道上下功夫。而没有内容资源也没有渠道优势的众多小SP早晚会被淘汰出局。” 究竟会有多少
8、SP会出局，那位SP企业的老总说，“按我的推算，明年初sp会开始大批撤退。倒掉四分之一不奇怪，悲观一点，三分之一、几千家吧。我指的是转行业或者倒掉，不玩SP了。这其实不奇怪的，我们周边的好多家都已经不行了。”而对于能够继续留下来的SP企业，他认为2007年会选择纵向上面向3G，开发手机电视等新业务。 看来即将到来的2007年对于SP来说，已经走到了生存的拐点，转型路上并不轻松。除了那些被淘汰出局的SP企业，剩余的也必须在内容和渠道上狠下功夫，同时要不断开发新的业务来支撑自己的未来。Editors note: Judson Jones is a meteorologist, journalist
9、 and photographer. He has freelanced with CNN for four years, covering severe weather from tornadoes to typhoons. Follow him on Twitter: jnjonesjr (CNN) - I will always wonder what it was like to huddle around a shortwave radio and through the crackling static from space hear the faint beeps of the
10、worlds first satellite - Sputnik. I also missed watching Neil Armstrong step foot on the moon and the first space shuttle take off for the stars. Those events were way before my time.As a kid, I was fascinated with what goes on in the sky, and when NASA pulled the plug on the shuttle program I was h
11、eartbroken. Yet the privatized space race has renewed my childhood dreams to reach for the stars.As a meteorologist, Ive still seen many important weather and space events, but right now, if you were sitting next to me, youd hear my foot tapping rapidly under my desk. Im anxious for the next one: a
12、space capsule hanging from a crane in the New Mexico desert.Its like the set for a George Lucas movie floating to the edge of space.You and I will have the chance to watch a man take a leap into an unimaginable free fall from the edge of space - live.The (lack of) air up there Watch man jump from 96
13、,000 feet Tuesday, I sat at work glued to the live stream of the Red Bull Stratos Mission. I watched the balloons positioned at different altitudes in the sky to test the winds, knowing that if they would just line up in a vertical straight line we would be go for launch.I feel this mission was crea
14、ted for me because I am also a journalist and a photographer, but above all I live for taking a leap of faith - the feeling of pushing the envelope into uncharted territory.The guy who is going to do this, Felix Baumgartner, must have that same feeling, at a level I will never reach. However, it did
15、 not stop me from feeling his pain when a gust of swirling wind kicked up and twisted the partially filled balloon that would take him to the upper end of our atmosphere. As soon as the 40-acre balloon, with skin no thicker than a dry cleaning bag, scraped the ground I knew it was over.How claustrop
16、hobia almost grounded supersonic skydiverWith each twist, you could see the wrinkles of disappointment on the face of the current record holder and capcom (capsule communications), Col. Joe Kittinger. He hung his head low in mission control as he told Baumgartner the disappointing news: Mission abor
17、ted.The supersonic descent could happen as early as Sunday.The weather plays an important role in this mission. Starting at the ground, conditions have to be very calm - winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. The balloon, with capsule attached, will move th
18、rough the lower level of the atmosphere (the troposphere) where our day-to-day weather lives. It will climb higher than the tip of Mount Everest (5.5 miles/8.85 kilometers), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the stratosphere.
19、 As he crosses the boundary layer (called the tropopause), he can expect a lot of turbulence.The balloon will slowly drift to the edge of space at 120,000 feet (22.7 miles/36.53 kilometers). Here, Fearless Felix will unclip. He will roll back the door.Then, I would assume, he will slowly step out on
20、to something resembling an Olympic diving platform.Below, the Earth becomes the concrete bottom of a swimming pool that he wants to land on, but not too hard. Still, hell be traveling fast, so despite the distance, it will not be like diving into the deep end of a pool. It will be like he is diving
21、into the shallow end.Skydiver preps for the big jumpWhen he jumps, he is expected to reach the speed of sound - 690 mph (1,110 kph) - in less than 40 seconds. Like hitting the top of the water, he will begin to slow as he approaches the more dense air closer to Earth. But this will not be enough to
22、stop him completely.If he goes too fast or spins out of control, he has a stabilization parachute that can be deployed to slow him down. His team hopes its not needed. Instead, he plans to deploy his 270-square-foot (25-square-meter) main chute at an altitude of around 5,000 feet (1,524 meters).In o
23、rder to deploy this chute successfully, he will have to slow to 172 mph (277 kph). He will have a reserve parachute that will open automatically if he loses consciousness at mach speeds.Even if everything goes as planned, it wont. Baumgartner still will free fall at a speed that would cause you and
24、me to pass out, and no parachute is guaranteed to work higher than 25,000 feet (7,620 meters).It might not be the moon, but Kittinger free fell from 102,800 feet in 1960 - at the dawn of an infamous space race that captured the hearts of many. Baumgartner will attempt to break that record, a feat that boggles the mind. This is one of those monumental moments I will always remember, because there is no way Id miss this.
