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1、XXXXX商贸街西端项目可行性研究报告XXX商贸街西端项目可行性研究报告第一章；市场可行性分析一、 XXX概况1、概况2、城区发展方向目前城区向北和向东发展；东扩： 现城区东扩到棣新五路，北扩到商贸街。根据20032020年城区规划尤其是政府北迁的决定、居民的生活习惯、棣新五路205国道之间所供城市发展的土地已经不多，现留给城区向东发展的空间已经不大、无棣县旧城位于棣新一路以西，以及棣新一路以西拥有可供城区发展的丰富土地资源和205国道西迁道路建设年底将全面展开等众多因素可推测在未来的4-6年内，城区发展将会向西和向北发展。二、 市场区域特征（一）需求状况：1、 XX商品房建设正处于起步阶段，
2、商业房产概念十分淡薄，2003年政府禁止集资房建设，这一变化将有力推动商业房产的发展。2、 鉴于商业房产还处于萌芽状态，多年来部分客层需求得不到有效满足，市场需求形成一定量的积蓄，特别是集资房的禁止，区域新就业人口的增加，必将加快这一积蓄的过程。3、 消费者从众心理较强，喜好和朋友、亲戚住在一起。（二）供给状况：1、目前区域市场商品房供应量十分有限。在售楼盘仅有两个，即田园小区和XX商住楼。2、房产建筑形态以多层砖混为主，喜好沿街规划二至三层建筑。3、县城现供应房产住宅价格9001200元/，主力产品三房面积110135，二房面积80100，主力总价8万元至16万元；店面价格16003000元
3、/（2至3层均价）4、 配套齐全、环境优美、有统一物管理的封闭式社区，在市场上完全空白，城镇居民所有居住社区不存在真正意义上的物业管理或服务。三、 项目分析1、地理位置位于XXX城西北角，商贸街西端，东邻棣新一路(省道)，属于新老城区结合部。目前地块为空地和果树林，周边环境杂乱无序，整体形象不理想。但随着本案大规模的改造和建材、五金、水暖、机电综合大市场的建设，区域形象将得到明显的改观。2、项目规模用地面积约86870（未含政府赠送15亩的中庭和南园13亩的主干道），容积率可规划132，楼距1.5，地上计容积率建筑面积114470。3、项目定位北园：中高档住宅区；南园：建材、五金、水暖城；4、
4、建材、五金、水暖专业市场调查经营户楼统计表类别经营户楼户楼比例经营间数间数比例平均间数家俱128%5621%4.67五金4733%7126%1.51水暖1510%217%1.4建材6847%11844%1.74合计142100%266100%1.87注：以上每间店铺平均面宽3.6米，面积约40平米。从上表可知，（1）市场容量较小。目前XXX经营五金、建材、水暖、家俱的经营店铺仅266间，经营户数只有142家。（2）从以上行业分析，经营家俱需求经营面积最大，每户约200平米，其次是建材，五金、水暖。另根据市场调查，目前无棣经营家装行业的数量较少；以上经营客户得知县府规划建材、五金、水暖专业市场信
5、息后，在税收、行政管理费用优惠的前提下，会搬迁来此经营的客户约占30%，考虑客户约占40%，不会搬迁30%（店铺大部分是自主经营，或占据较好的地理位置）。5、项目优劣势分析（SWOT）（1）优势（S）A 地块体量较大，为项目整体规划创造了较大的造作空间：近千户人口，上万平米的中庭花园、十万平米封闭式大社区，强大配套（自身拥有菜市场、幼儿园、会所等，小学、二中和医院近在咫尺），周到的物业管理服务，彰显尊贵、荣耀品质生活。B 政府规划的近400间专业市场店铺群，新老城区交汇的枢纽地段，近千户人口日常强大的消费能力，商贸街西段贯通省道和未来205国道所带来的交通便捷，商业店铺升值炙手可热；（2）劣势
6、（W）A 本案地段目前较为偏僻，市政生活配套还未健全，人流量较少，商业氛围差。市场建议：大力宣传政府2004年重点规划项目建材、五金、水暖、机电城和本案大规模的改造，勾划和塑造出该区域将成为无棣县未来新的生活中心区和商贸区。B 经营五金、水暖、建材经营户数有限，市场容量小，与规划的400间商业店铺群存在较大的缺口。市场规避：a.商业住宅化，降低投资风险； b.深度挖掘投资客户，充分重视乡镇的客户；c.扩大市场经营行业种类，如增加金融器具、机电专业市场。d.增强政府行为，如规定年限内税收、行政管理费用优惠或全免，吸引行业经营业主来此经营。（3）机会点A.XX县城已取消私人建房为项目提供了更大的市
7、场空间。B.房产正处于起步阶段，03年未集资房禁止建设，多年累积下的客户储备量和数量不断增加的二次置业者为房地产建设开发提供丰富的客户资源。（4）威胁A.XX县城人口少，市场容量有限；居民消费意识较为原始，为市场的引导增加了不可预见性。B.具有地段优势的院前街西段改造项目（约5万平米），会分流一部分商业投资客户。CXX县小商品商贸城的惨淡经营，将会影响客户对本案专业市场投资的信心市场规避：a.做足产品文章，使产品更具有竞争力； b.深度挖掘各乡镇的客户资源，加大各乡镇的宣传力度； c.结合客户需求，寻找市场产品空白点； d.加大专业市场的政府行为，扩大专业市场地理辐射范围，增强投资者的信心。小
8、结：1、开发模式通过上述分析，XX县目前住宅需求量较大，项目北园中高档住宅区只要在小区规划和户型设计、产品销售、企划上引进先进的房产理念，销售则水到渠成，而专业市场不可预知性较多，销售困难性较大。因此为降低开发投资风险，加快资金回笼速度，建议项目分二期开发，首期先开发北园中高档住宅区，积累专业市场客户，详细了解专业市场客户心理和市场动态，为二期开发南园专业市场做充足准备。2、住宅利基市场综合以上市场区域状况和项目分析，本案住宅利基市场如下：A、120-1303房、130-1504房：市场总价12-15万元，月付600元左右，是市场上最为普遍的居住类型，这一类型构成市场主力需求，针对客层主要有两
9、类：相对年轻的政府机关普通公务员、城镇国有企业、事业单位职员，均有这种支付能力，但目前这类客层均居住在单位集资房，为改善居住环境、或为结婚建立新家庭、或为摆脱与父母共同生活的尴尬，倾向于购置一处房产。下级乡镇政府机关干部、个体业户，为改善下一代教育环境，或为拓展个人政治空间、人际关系，这一客层在县城置业欲望较为强烈。B、中高品质的社区性商品房：有一定积蓄的当地公务员、企事业单位双职工、无棣个体工商业户，可承受价位在16-20万元之间，现住宅多为单位分配房、集资房或自建房，品质较差，因为家庭规模的扩大，有改善居住条件的需求，但现有商品房相对其居住房又无明显差异，这一客层需求无法得到有效满足。C、
10、别墅或类别墅产品完全一片空白：一部分当地成功人士，特别是个体、私营企业主、企业高级管理人员、政府要员，事业基础在当地，为追求高品质的城市生活，倾向于在当地购置一处有规范物业管理、完善社区环境配套的房产，享受良好的居住氛围，优越的舒适性、安全性和私密性，倾向于经济型别墅或类别墅，价位在25-35万元之间。第二章：产品投资分析一、经济指标详见下表（不含政府赠送广场、专业市场主干道）：用地面积104870（含政府北区赠送10000平米的中庭广场和南区8000平米的道路）土地实际用地面积80490建筑占地面积28300总建筑面积112440不计容积率面积7000计容积率面积105440其中其中北园用地
11、面积42360（未含赠送花园面积）北园建筑面积68660其中沿商贸街店铺4660住宅面积64000建筑占地面积13430建筑密度31.7%容积率1.51南园用地面积38130（未含政府赠送主干道）南园建筑面积36780其中沿商贸街店铺3000专业市场内街店铺118702-3层住宅21910建筑占地面积14870建筑密度38.9%容积率0.96总建筑密度35.1%总容积率1.31绿地率35%总停车位300位（含南北区公用停车位）二、预测销售收入1、销售收入总表房产类型面积单价预侧收入备注商业店铺沿商贸街7660200015324.5米层高专业市场内街11870140016624米层高住宅8591
12、0120010309含赠送储藏间或花园车位3000（120个）2万/位240层高2.18米合计13743房产销售平均价格：1290元/2、收入明细表如下房产类型面积（）单价（元/）预侧收入（万元）备注北园沿商贸街店铺466020009324.5米层高住宅面积6400012007680含赠送储藏间车库120个2万/位2403000平米小计8852南园沿商贸街店铺300020006005.2米层高内街店铺11870140016624米层高住宅2191012002629含赠送花园小计4891合计13743三、直接开发成本内容成本（万元）备注地上建安综合成本5850平层均价530元/（含桩基、门、窗等
13、）物管基金117建安开发成本的2%市政基础设施配套及其它行政事业性与服务性收费39035元/（含消防、新型建筑材料发展基金、图审费用、质量监督费用、散装水泥专项资金、及各类规费）水、电、智能42240元/道路、绿化、地下管道等公用配套400暖气42240元/勘探、设计费用15815元/资金成本100不可预见费用293建安成本的5%管理费用120开发周期2年，每年60万企划、广告、销售管理费用274销售额的2%地价1243（含土地交易费用）合计9789注：本地房产开发不需要人防异地费用附表一：北园开发总成本内容成本（万元）备注地上建安综合成本4126框架平层550元/（含桩基、门、窗等）物管基金
14、83建安开发成本的2%市政基础设施配套及其它行政事业性与服务性收费26435元/（含消防、新型建筑材料发展基金、图审费用、质量监督费用、散装水泥专项资金、及各类规费）水、电、智能27540元/道路、绿化、地下管道等公用配套300暖气24035元/勘探、设计费用11315元/资金成本100含二期不可预见费用206建安成本的5%管理费用60开发周期2年，每年60万企划、广告、销售管理费用187销售额的2%地价1243含土地交易费用（含二期约580万元）税收374销售额的4%合计7571四、营业性税收：137434%=549万五、投资经济分析在开发周期2年，100%销售前提条件下，投资回报分析如下表
15、营业性收入13743万元开发总成本10338万元其中直接投资成本9789万元营业性税收（含各种附加税）549万元利润3405万元利润率24.8%年利润率12.4%投资总额800万元投资回报率425.6%年投资回报率212.8%盈亏平衡点销售72%六、投资资金流程计划(略)Editors note: Judson Jones is a meteorologist, journalist and photographer. He has freelanced with CNN for four years, covering severe weather from tornadoes to typ
16、hoons. Follow him on Twitter: jnjonesjr (CNN) - I will always wonder what it was like to huddle around a shortwave radio and through the crackling static from space hear the faint beeps of the worlds first satellite - Sputnik. I also missed watching Neil Armstrong step foot on the moon and the first
17、 space shuttle take off for the stars. Those events were way before my time.As a kid, I was fascinated with what goes on in the sky, and when NASA pulled the plug on the shuttle program I was heartbroken. Yet the privatized space race has renewed my childhood dreams to reach for the stars.As a meteo
18、rologist, Ive still seen many important weather and space events, but right now, if you were sitting next to me, youd hear my foot tapping rapidly under my desk. Im anxious for the next one: a space capsule hanging from a crane in the New Mexico desert.Its like the set for a George Lucas movie float
19、ing to the edge of space.You and I will have the chance to watch a man take a leap into an unimaginable free fall from the edge of space - live.The (lack of) air up there Watch man jump from 96,000 feet Tuesday, I sat at work glued to the live stream of the Red Bull Stratos Mission. I watched the ba
20、lloons positioned at different altitudes in the sky to test the winds, knowing that if they would just line up in a vertical straight line we would be go for launch.I feel this mission was created for me because I am also a journalist and a photographer, but above all I live for taking a leap of fai
21、th - the feeling of pushing the envelope into uncharted territory.The guy who is going to do this, Felix Baumgartner, must have that same feeling, at a level I will never reach. However, it did not stop me from feeling his pain when a gust of swirling wind kicked up and twisted the partially filled
22、balloon that would take him to the upper end of our atmosphere. As soon as the 40-acre balloon, with skin no thicker than a dry cleaning bag, scraped the ground I knew it was over.How claustrophobia almost grounded supersonic skydiverWith each twist, you could see the wrinkles of disappointment on t
23、he face of the current record holder and capcom (capsule communications), Col. Joe Kittinger. He hung his head low in mission control as he told Baumgartner the disappointing news: Mission aborted.The supersonic descent could happen as early as Sunday.The weather plays an important role in this miss
24、ion. Starting at the ground, conditions have to be very calm - winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. The balloon, with capsule attached, will move through the lower level of the atmosphere (the troposphere) where our day-to-day weather lives. It will climb
25、 higher than the tip of Mount Everest (5.5 miles/8.85 kilometers), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the stratosphere. As he crosses the boundary layer (called the tropopause), he can expect a lot of turbulence.The balloon wi
26、ll slowly drift to the edge of space at 120,000 feet (22.7 miles/36.53 kilometers). Here, Fearless Felix will unclip. He will roll back the door.Then, I would assume, he will slowly step out onto something resembling an Olympic diving platform.Below, the Earth becomes the concrete bottom of a swimmi
27、ng pool that he wants to land on, but not too hard. Still, hell be traveling fast, so despite the distance, it will not be like diving into the deep end of a pool. It will be like he is diving into the shallow end.Skydiver preps for the big jumpWhen he jumps, he is expected to reach the speed of sou
28、nd - 690 mph (1,110 kph) - in less than 40 seconds. Like hitting the top of the water, he will begin to slow as he approaches the more dense air closer to Earth. But this will not be enough to stop him completely.If he goes too fast or spins out of control, he has a stabilization parachute that can
29、be deployed to slow him down. His team hopes its not needed. Instead, he plans to deploy his 270-square-foot (25-square-meter) main chute at an altitude of around 5,000 feet (1,524 meters).In order to deploy this chute successfully, he will have to slow to 172 mph (277 kph). He will have a reserve p
30、arachute that will open automatically if he loses consciousness at mach speeds.Even if everything goes as planned, it wont. Baumgartner still will free fall at a speed that would cause you and me to pass out, and no parachute is guaranteed to work higher than 25,000 feet (7,620 meters).It might not
31、be the moon, but Kittinger free fell from 102,800 feet in 1960 - at the dawn of an infamous space race that captured the hearts of many. Baumgartner will attempt to break that record, a feat that boggles the mind. This is one of those monumental moments I will always remember, because there is no way Id miss this.
