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1、Brian Liu, Leo Zhao, Jessica ZhiGreenWood Research Team, GreenWood Resources9/2/2008ContentsSummary.31Industry Overview31.1 China vs. the World31.1.1 Natural Forest and Plantation31.1.2 Types of Forest Stand31.2 Features of Forest Industry in China31.2.1 Imbalanced Distribution of Resources31.2.2 Yo
2、ung Average Forest Age and Heavy Reliance on Imports31.2.3 Fragmented Downstream Market31.3 Forestry Plantation and Harvesting Management31.3.1 Regulatory Structure31.3.2 Ownership and Management31.3.3 Logging Quota31.3.4 Timber Procurement, Distribution and Pricing31.3.5 One of the Lowest Income Se
3、gments in China32. China Forestry Industry Chain32.1 Supply Analysis in the Upstream32.1.1 The Supply Analysis of China Timber Market32.1.2 National Forestry Industry Management System32.1.3 National Favor Policies in Forest Industry32.1.4 Forest Plantation Sub Industry32.2 Downstream Demand Analysi
4、s32.2.1 Wood Pulp Industry32.2.2 Paper Industry32.2.3 Waste Paper32.2.4 White Cardboard Paper32.2.5 Halftone Paper32.2.6 Panel32.2.7 Medium Density Fiber Board (MDF)32.2.8 Ultra-thin and Ultra-thick MDF32.2.9 Furniture Industry32.2.10 Building Decoration32.2.11 Wood Flooring Industry33. Forestry pro
5、gram and forestry constructing33.1 Six Major Forestry Program34. National Assisting policies in Forestry Industry34.1 National Policy in Favor of Forest Industry34.1.1Forestry Policy34.1.2Tax Policy34.1.3Credit and Financing35. The Reformation of the Policies in Forestry Industry35.1 Forest Ownershi
6、p Reform History35.2 Forest Property Transaction35.2.1 Transaction Range35.2.2 Procedure35.2.3 Right of Purchaser35.2.4 Access System of Stumpage Transaction35.2.5 Documents must be submitted for Marketing Stumpage35.3 Reform on Timber Right3Paraphrase36. Current Foreign Investment from Overseas in
7、China36.1 Scope of Utilizing Foreign Investment of Forestry36.2 Characteristics of Utilizing Foreign Investment in Forestry36.3 Inspiration from Foreign Country36.4 High Light for Investors37. SWOT Analysis3Policy Risks3Pricing Risk3Risk of Track Record3Risk of Increasing Cost3Risk of Climate38. Con
8、clusion3 Summary原材料正在日益成为中国的致命弱点。行业分析家预测，到2010年中国的木材供应空缺将达9000万1.3亿m3。中国迅速成为木浆、废纸、阔叶材、针叶材、热带原木和热带锯材的世界主要进口国之一。随着俄罗斯开始征收原木出口税，2007年前5个月的贸易统计数据表明，中国进口的木材材积上升了19%，而价值增长了45%。事实上，中国木制品行业的一些企业面临相当严峻的形势。许多中国生产商正在寻求其他的原材料供应商。刚果政府在上海产权交易所挂牌的4亿美元林木资产迅速吸引了众多的投资者，而中国国家商务部也将此项目视为值得推荐项目。中国采取什么措施解决这些问题呢？实行林权体制改革；加
9、大进口力度；六大工程增加人工速生林产量等等；中国政府的官员表现出了足够的信心，相信他们能够缓解未来的国内木材供应空白。解决中国木材短缺的一个关键措施是到2015年大大增加国内人工林木材的产量。此计划包括增加1,300万hm2速生人工林，这些新增人工林每年将可生产1.334亿m3木材。Therefore, we strongly suggest that the investment in China forestry industry. 中国林业制度自2003年起开始经历了历史性的改革，在这次改革中，林业资产产权更加明晰，经营权明确规定，收益权被严格赋予了持有林业资产的主体，而且，林业处置权给
10、予了林权拥有者更安全、更可行以及更多样的退出机制以保证投资者的利益。同时，中国政府大力推行三农政策，使得林业行业以及林农收益非浅，农民植树造林大力发展林业生产力的热情空前高涨，并且在短时间的改革过程中得到了切实的现金收益。而中国政府推行的六大林业工程不仅保护了天然森林的面积和环境，而且，成几何倍增长的人工林面积使环境更美好，使企业有更丰富的原材料资源，也使国际社会几年来关注的CDM在中国的减排量进一步增加。对于外国投资者来说，中国政府将林业投资中包含的直接造林和收购现有林（出售时间为7年之后）划分为环境保护项目，享受相应的税收和政策的优惠。并且，随着中国进入WTO以来企业管理制度的不断提升和完
11、善，对于生物资产的计价方式更有利于外国投资者。人民币近年来不断的升值和今后的升值预期也是大力吸引外国投资者的重要因素之一。从产业结构方面来看，中国林业总体的供需呈现严重的失衡现象。中国林业上游有林木种植业、绿化苗木种植业等，在中游有木浆业、人造板业以及其他木材初加工业，在下游有家具业、木地板业、建筑装修业、包装业、林化产业等。尽管这些细分子行业受国内外宏观经济形势和各自市场供求环境的影响，景气度不尽相同，但对于原材料的需求量巨大而且呈逐年上升的趋势。这对林业行业的生产提出了很高的要求，也促使原材料价格逐年上涨，林业行业上游企业的利润也水涨船高, 这使林木上游企业呈现高景气度。尽管，林业行业也受
12、到来自政策、价格、气候等方面因素的影响，但我们总体上认为，对于中国大陆林业行业的投资由于其优惠的政策扶持、较高的进入壁垒、明显的供求缺口以及对自然环境和人类社会带来的巨大利益，必将为投资者创造高预期的回报。1Industry Overview 1.1 China vs. the WorldAccording to the analysis and comparison based on United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Report World Forest Resources, China ranks No.5 in
13、 the world in terms of forest area behind Russia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States, and No. 6 in forest stocking volume following Russia, Brazil, the United States, Canada and Congo. See Figure 1 State forestry Bureau, China Forestry Yearbook, P178-183.Figure 1: China is the No. 5 largest fores
14、try country in the worldThe forest coverage in China is 18.21% of her total land area, 61.52% of the worlds forest coverage 29.6%. The per capita forest area is 0.132 hectares (ha), making up 22% of the world average, which comes to 0.6 ha. Chinas per-capita forest stocking volume is 9.421 cubic met
15、ers, 14.58% of the worlds average 64.627 cubic meters Ibid.Figure 2: Chinas forest per capita is only a quarter of the worlds averageThe total area of plantation forest makes China rank No.1 in the world. Chinas forest plays a decisive role in the sustainable economic, ecological and social developm
16、ent and biodiversity conservation in the world State forestry Bureau, China forestry resources, P6-7.1.1.1 Natural Forest and PlantationAccording to State forestry Bureau, China forestry resources, Issued by Jan 2005, China natural forest area is 115.76 million hectares with stocking volume of 10,59
17、3 million cubic meters. Its plantation area is 53.26 million hectares with stocking volume of 15.05 million cubic meters State forestry Bureau, China forestry resources, P6-7.1.1.2 Types of Forest Stand Timber forest area is 78.63 million hectares with stocking volume of 5,513 million cubic meters.
18、Protective forest area is 54.75 million hectares with stocking volume of 5501 million cubic meters. Fuel forest area is 3.03 million hectares with stocking volume of 56 million cubic meters. Special-purpose forest area is 6.38 million hectares with stocking volume of 1028 million cubic meters State
19、forestry Bureau, China forestry resources, P6-7.1.2 Features of Forest Industry in ChinaForest industry in China currently is facing to three features: a) Imbalanced distribution of forest. Forest in China mainly distributes at inland mountain area. This makes great difficult to transport felling fo
20、rest to manufactory. b) Major forest is not suitable to fell since the young forest age. Therefore, China still heavily relies on forest import. c) Existing wood market is in disorder. Manufactories in middle and downstream that consists mainly of furniture factories and paper manufactories have low
21、 technique, low sense of organization and low productivity. 1.2.1 Imbalanced Distribution of Resources Figure 3: China Map Showing DistributionFive provinces; Tibet, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Yunnan and Mongolia, together account for 62% of Chinas total forest growing stock Stacy Shi, Chuan Tang, Eric
22、Lau, Seeing the forest for the trees; China Forestry Industry, DB 2007, P5 Since most of these provinces are located deep inland, transportation has always been a key issue. In some cases, we hear that transportation costs could be twice as much as the log cost.1.2.2 Young Average Forest Age and Hea
23、vy Reliance on ImportsRecognizing the importance of forest resources, China in recent years has been aggressively adding plantation forest, which accounted for 22% of the worlds new plantation area in 2005. Figure 4: Average forest age distribution by areaThis combined with the countrys low existing
24、 forest reserve, however, made the average forest age even younger. Out of the existing 175 million ha of forest, only around 18% is at mature and overly mature stages. Consequently, China currently relies mainly on young to middle-age forest (lower quality) for its wood supply Stacy Shi, Chuan Tang
25、, Eric Lau, Seeing the forest for the trees; China Forestry Industry, DB 2007, P7. Age Class Structure of Forest Stand Need to fix the tables and charts numbering system and put footnotes.Figure 5: Import as a percentage of total consumptionMeanwhile, imports have been and, according to our work, wi
26、ll continue to be essential to meet the countrys huge demand appetite. A report issued by World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in FY05 estimates that import will account for 52% of Chinas total wood consumption by 2010 Stacy Shi, Chuan Tang, Eric Lau, Seeing the forest for the trees; China Forestry Industry, D
27、B 2007, P7.1.2.3 Fragmented Downstream MarketDomestic construction, furniture and the paper manufacturing industry are all extremely fragmented. According to our Whos “our”research, the top two property construction companies control less than 2% of the total market share by volume. Similarly, 93% a
28、nd 88% of the total companies in wood furniture and the paper industry are small (Figures 6, 7and 8) 1.3 Forestry Plantation and Harvesting Management 1.3.1 Regulatory StructureThe sector is primarily regulated by the State Council and State Forestry Administration (SFA) as well as local level SFAs.
29、 While the SFA and State Councils directional policy announcements are extremely important, the local SFAs are also fairly powerful given their rights to oversee and negotiate forest usage and logging concessions (see Figure 9 and 10). There are currently three main groups of entities: state, collec
30、tive, and private forest farms.1.3.2 Ownership and ManagementAll land, including forests, in China is owned by the State. For forests which the State does not manage directly, collective farms (another form of indirect state ownership) and private enterprises can lease the land for forest production
31、. According to WWFs Chinas Wood Market, Trade and the Environment report published in 2005, 60% of the forest is managed by collective farms and 40% (mostly natural forest) by the states while the area managed by the private segment is still immaterial. The lease terms we have seen are typically 40
32、years Stacy Shi, Chuan Tang, Eric Lau, Seeing the forest for the trees; China Forestry Industry, DB 2007, P9.1.3.3 Logging QuotaThe State Council, along with the SFA, set a five-year logging quota, which will be allocated to local administration level then further distributed among individual forest
33、ry entities. The key principles the SFA follows are 1) to preserve natural forest and 2) total logging should not exceed total new plantation. In an effort to encourage commercial plantation, the government allows special exemptions in certain cases. 1.3.4 Timber Procurement, Distribution and Pricin
34、gThe procurement, distribution and pricing of the forestry products are now fully liberalized and market-driven. As Figure 10 shows, end-users can reach the upstream producers via various channels. Companies that have licenses for import/export can all participate in wood/wood product trades.1.3.5 O
35、ne of the Lowest Income Segments in ChinaAccording to the official 2005 government survey, the forestry industry has an annual salary of RMB7, 250, one of the lowest in the country and even below that of agriculture (RMB7, 517). This is mainly attributable to the long harvest cycle of most tree spec
36、ies in China, the governments protective stand on natural forest (limited logging quota) and the large employment body of the state and collective forestry companies2. China Forestry Industry ChainChina，because of the absolutely scarcity, long-period growth circle, wide range of application of wood,
37、 mature industry chain and favorable supporting policies of forest industry, we generally deem that forestry industry is experiencing its growing up processes. However, forestry industry can be subdivided into many sub industries such as, in the upstream market, forest plantation and nursery stock p
38、lantation etc. and, in the middle market, pulp industry, man-made board industry, and other wood pretreating industry. Also in the downstream market, there are furniture industry, wood flooring industry, constructing and decorating industry and so on. Prosperity of these industries really depends on
39、 the supply-and-demand environment and situation of macro economy both home and abroad. Forestry industry has several types of vertical industry chain mainly including: 1. Forest plantationbig dimension woodsolid wood furniture, floor and construction and decoration; 2. Forest plantationsmall dimens
40、ion wood, particle boardman-made boardfurniture, solid wood furniture and floor; 3. Forest plantationpulppaper; 4. Forest plantationforest byproducts(like turpentine)forest chemical products(like colophony); 5. Afforestation nursery research and development Afforestation nursery stock baseAfforestat
41、ion nursery stock engineering designing and construction2.1 Supply Analysis in the UpstreamBefore the reform and opening-up of China, forest industry was defined as basic industry with the main function of offering a great number of timbers with good quality at a low and cheap price. In this period,
42、 supply of timber is almost from natural forest resource. Import trading of timbers was running by some special appointed state-owned firms according to the need of state-building within limited countries and companies. From the reform and opening-up to 1998, natural forest still acted as the main s
43、ource of timbers in China. According to the research, natural forest took 90 percent of the supply of timbers. From then on, since the hewing for many years, it led the flood scourge around the basin of Yangzi River and Songhua River. For protecting the environment, China government decidedly implem
44、ents “Natural Forest Protection Works” (short for NFPW) which has 17 provinces involved in, planning to reduce the output in this area at the speed rate of 15% yearly. Thus, China was decreasing the supply of the natural forest resources year by year. As to the aspect of timber import, China was cal
45、ling off the control of timber import. In 1999, for mating the implement of “NFPW”, China government completely cancelled the import duty of log and sawn timbers. The liberalization process of wood trading relieved the pressure of “NFPW” effectively, aroused energy of China timber market and made Ch
46、ina timber market as one part of the global timber market From China State Forestry Administration. 2.1.1 The Supply Analysis of China Timber MarketChina timber supply market consists of two main parts: one is local timber and the other is import timber. The outputs of local timber were going down f
47、rom 1997 to 2002 comparing to the largely increasing after 2003. The number of net timber import grows at the rate of 14.29%. Totally speaking, timber supply in China is far less than enough.Local timber supply is related complicated. It consists of “In the plan” output and “Out of plan” output. “In the plan” output means that State Forestry Bureau delivers yearly forestry cutting quota and “Out of plan” output means that extra quota cutting and denudation. The total supply quantity of timber market in China= (“In the plan” supply+ “Out of plan” supply+ non-veneer bo
