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1、西西4#地项目成本测算及费用分析二零零三年十月三十一日一、 总论1、项目概况：北京西单北商业大街西侧综合改造工程，简称“西西工程”。本工程为西西4#地工程，项目处在北京市西单北大街西侧，南临皮库胡同，西向华远街，北临大木仓胡同。地处北京西城区最繁荣之商业区西单大街的中心地带。西西工程4#地用地面积约16703平方米，目前已完成三通一平条件，同时甲方负责电力、热力、给排水等七通一平施工条件。2、建设规模及经济技术指标 本项目处在北京市西单北大街,项目东侧为西单文化广场、四周围为规划中的1318平米的绿地。项目技术指标如下：占地面积：16072.66平方米总建筑面积21.4866平方米其中：地下建
2、筑面积63760平方米地上建筑面积151106平方米层数： 地上：15层 地下：4层 檐高：59.4米容积率：9.4停车位：996个绿化率：11.6%建筑形式：共分为1#、2#、3#、4#四栋单体建筑，其中：1#楼 ：地上建筑面积为19001平方米，1-5层为商业部分共8738平方米，6-11层为办公部分共10263平方米。2#楼 ：地上建筑面积为46879平方米，1-5层为商业部分共21213平方米，6-11层为餐饮娱乐部分共25666平方米。3#楼 ：地上建筑面积为52944平方米，其中1-5层为商业部分5736平方米，1-6层为剧场13853平方米；8-11层为影院7354平方米，6-1
3、1层为休闲娱乐11946平方米；12-15层为办公部分共14055平方米。4#楼 ：地上建筑面积为32282平方米，1-5层为商业部分共10544平方米，1-15层为办公部分共21738平方米。西西4#地楼层功能分布图楼号1234层数1商业商业商业剧场办公商业2商业商业商业剧场办公商业3商业商业商业剧场办公商业4商业商业商业剧场办公商业5商业商业商业剧场办公商业6办公餐饮娱乐剧场、休闲娱乐办公7办公餐饮娱乐休闲娱乐办公8办公餐饮娱乐休闲娱乐影院办公9办公餐饮娱乐休闲娱乐影院办公10办公餐饮娱乐休闲娱乐影院办公11办公餐饮娱乐休闲娱乐影院办公12办公办公13办公办公14办公办公15办公办公二、费
4、用估算1、项目的成本估算：项目名称费 用（万元）平米单价（元/平米）测算说明土地成本100000 6790 土地成本包括拿到开工证前的所有支出（包含土地出让金费用）前期其他费用5280 359 包括勘探、设计、结构咨询、规划许可证执照费、工料测量顾问费共4814.412万元，另加监理费用为建安成本的0.5%共466万元。建安费107433 5000 建安费按5000元/平米暂估业主管理费2686 182 按照建安费费用的2.5%计不可预见费3223 219 按照建安费费用的3%计小计218622 12550 利息 10620 721 土地费用共10亿元，计息两年，年息5.31%。广告销售费用4
5、832 328 按照销售收入的1.5%计取，收入：按写字楼15000元/平米，商业25000元/平米计算（商业63601平米、办公46056平米、休闲11946平米、餐饮25666平米）， 15000*46056+25000*（63601+11946+25666）=3221165000元=32.21165亿元。两税一费17716 1203 按照销售收入的5.5%计取。合计251790 14474 说明：1、平米单价按照可销售面积147269万平米计算，写字楼按15000元/平米计算，商业、餐饮、娱乐按25000元/平米计算。2、销售情况按可销售面积的100%售完。3、项目总成本为25.179亿
6、元，平均平米成本为14474元/平米。2、西西4#地工程建安成本估算表单位：元项目名称分项名称费用平米单价基础处理土方及回填16667478 77.57 降水1395430 6.49 护坡4913568 22.87 基础处理1087792 5.06 合计24064268 112.00 钢筋混凝土结构及初装修钢筋混凝土结构200223583 931.85 二次结构及初装14775544 68.77 非实体费用83235605 387.38 合计298234732 1388.00 装饰工程地库1608044 7.48 商业37387035 174.00 办公32148655 149.62 休闲与餐
7、厅32390059 150.75 影院24728879 115.09 剧场31634603 147.23 外装98992000 460.72 室内门22551087 104.95 屋面2917316 13.58 隔断2819840 13.12 装置及设备35584117 165.61 合计322761636 1502.15 机电工程水卫及采暖29635260 137.92 消防系统24916332 115.96 通风空调103978896 483.92 电梯工程53109644 247.18 变配电37050000 172.43 照明动力66559716 309.77 电话9239238 43
8、.00 煤气工程2074330 9.65 综合布线40394808 188.00 楼宇自控15040620 70.00 安保工程6445980 30.00 合计388444824 1807.85 室外工程室外排水7520310 35.00 室外工程21486600 100.00 绿化及照明11817630 55.00 合计40824540 190.00 建筑安装成本合计1074330000 5000.00 注：钢筋含量135KG/M2，混凝土含量0.65M3/M2三、项目的前期准备及开竣工日期的假定：假定本项目的前期工作在2004年2月底前完成。假定本项目建安施工在两年半内施工完毕。项目的假定
9、持续时间：项目分项持续时间（月）前期施工准备完成项目组建2004年2底前建安施工基础施工6结构施工8装修施工13竣工清理及验收2 四、经济指标分析1、项目的现金流出如下：三、销售方式：销售原则：销售为主，加快资金流通。销售情况假定：1、 写字楼及商业部分100%于2005年6月到2006年9月销售完毕，假定销售进度按月平均，则月均销售量为9818平米，销售单价为写字楼1.5万元/平米，商业部分销售单价为2.5万元/平米。2、 写字楼部分未销售，商业部分100%于2005年6月到2006年9月销售完毕，假定销售进度按月平均，则月均销售量为6748平米，销售单价2.5万元/平米；五、财务分析1、现
10、金流量分析：（1） 现金流出： 见附表（2） 现金流入： 见附表（3） 现金流量表见附表2、投资收益率：A、销售假定一的成本收益率： 成本收益率（322117-261603）/26160323.13B、销售假定二的成本收益率：成本收益率（253033-251379）/2513790.663、投资回报率： A、销售假定一的投资利润率： 投资利润率=（322117-261603）/50514=119.8%B、销售假定二的投资利润率： 投资利润率=（253033-251379）/48797=3.4%五、项目定位建议：西西4#地已有规划面积分配情况：使用功能建筑面积情况说明商业63601可以销售办公4
11、6056可以销售剧场13853无偿提供4500平米给北京市文化局影院7354成本价格转让给北京首都影院休闲娱乐11946销售或租赁餐饮娱乐25666销售或租赁汽车库35130经营自行车库650不可销售设备用房10610不可销售合计214866其中：商业及娱乐101213办公46056影院、剧场21207车库及配套46390西西4#地工程位于西单商业街黄金地段，项目规划应该以商业为主，写字楼部分应定位为商家的业务洽谈、办公场所，所以应该修改设计减少写字楼面积（减少到2万平米左右），增加商业面积（增加到13万平米左右）；同时，休闲娱乐、餐饮娱乐也应定位为商业的配套设施，面积作适当调整。西西4#地项
12、目并非是典型的房地产项目，实质上是一种商业建设模式。所以西西4#地的销售不会象普通的房地产项目一样。按其销售方式可以分为两种模式：1、 大型商业投资管理公司独家定购：项目在设计期间能够找到一大型商业投资管理公司订购，商业投资管理有限公司参与项目设计，根据商业需求修改楼层布局及配套设施，并且商业投资管理公司可以提前进行商业宣传、招商、规划等运作，项目交付后商业投资管理公司即可进行经营。但是，目前国内没有如此大实力的商业投资管理公司（全部商业定购的资金至少需30亿元），国外的商业投资公司是否认可西西项目，国外的商业运作模式是否适合中国都是一个疑问；西西项目计划2004年3月开工，在不到5个月的时间
13、寻求如此大型的买方恐怕不太现实。所以，这种模式实现的机率很小。2、 项目建成后持有经营达到一定规模后再销售：项目建成后委托一家大型商业投资管理公司进行管理，进行商业经营，利用二到三年时间将商业经营规模做大，并使顾客达到一定程度的认可，再把项目分割销售。销售方式为：（1）经营由商业管理公司统一管理，负责运营，项目实行股份形式，公众通过采购股份成为所有人，并按照股份比例参与决策及分红。（2）项目按层设定不同的商业经营种类，按层销售给几个大的经营商。这种模式存在的风险是可能对项目长期持有。在持有期间，出租率必须达到45%才能维持资金利息及运营成本。 出租率计算： 假定：月租金400元/平米；运营费用
14、37.8元/平米（5000万元/年，商业面积11万平米）；年利息1.38亿元（贷款26亿元），折合104.5元/平米。可出租面积为建筑面积的80%。 （104.5+37.8）/（400*80%）=45%Editors note: Judson Jones is a meteorologist, journalist and photographer. He has freelanced with CNN for four years, covering severe weather from tornadoes to typhoons. Follow him on Twitter: jnjon
15、esjr (CNN) - I will always wonder what it was like to huddle around a shortwave radio and through the crackling static from space hear the faint beeps of the worlds first satellite - Sputnik. I also missed watching Neil Armstrong step foot on the moon and the first space shuttle take off for the sta
16、rs. Those events were way before my time.As a kid, I was fascinated with what goes on in the sky, and when NASA pulled the plug on the shuttle program I was heartbroken. Yet the privatized space race has renewed my childhood dreams to reach for the stars.As a meteorologist, Ive still seen many impor
17、tant weather and space events, but right now, if you were sitting next to me, youd hear my foot tapping rapidly under my desk. Im anxious for the next one: a space capsule hanging from a crane in the New Mexico desert.Its like the set for a George Lucas movie floating to the edge of space.You and I
18、will have the chance to watch a man take a leap into an unimaginable free fall from the edge of space - live.The (lack of) air up there Watch man jump from 96,000 feet Tuesday, I sat at work glued to the live stream of the Red Bull Stratos Mission. I watched the balloons positioned at different alti
19、tudes in the sky to test the winds, knowing that if they would just line up in a vertical straight line we would be go for launch.I feel this mission was created for me because I am also a journalist and a photographer, but above all I live for taking a leap of faith - the feeling of pushing the env
20、elope into uncharted territory.The guy who is going to do this, Felix Baumgartner, must have that same feeling, at a level I will never reach. However, it did not stop me from feeling his pain when a gust of swirling wind kicked up and twisted the partially filled balloon that would take him to the
21、upper end of our atmosphere. As soon as the 40-acre balloon, with skin no thicker than a dry cleaning bag, scraped the ground I knew it was over.How claustrophobia almost grounded supersonic skydiverWith each twist, you could see the wrinkles of disappointment on the face of the current record holde
22、r and capcom (capsule communications), Col. Joe Kittinger. He hung his head low in mission control as he told Baumgartner the disappointing news: Mission aborted.The supersonic descent could happen as early as Sunday.The weather plays an important role in this mission. Starting at the ground, condit
23、ions have to be very calm - winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. The balloon, with capsule attached, will move through the lower level of the atmosphere (the troposphere) where our day-to-day weather lives. It will climb higher than the tip of Mount Evere
24、st (5.5 miles/8.85 kilometers), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the stratosphere. As he crosses the boundary layer (called the tropopause), he can expect a lot of turbulence.The balloon will slowly drift to the edge of spac
25、e at 120,000 feet (22.7 miles/36.53 kilometers). Here, Fearless Felix will unclip. He will roll back the door.Then, I would assume, he will slowly step out onto something resembling an Olympic diving platform.Below, the Earth becomes the concrete bottom of a swimming pool that he wants to land on, b
26、ut not too hard. Still, hell be traveling fast, so despite the distance, it will not be like diving into the deep end of a pool. It will be like he is diving into the shallow end.Skydiver preps for the big jumpWhen he jumps, he is expected to reach the speed of sound - 690 mph (1,110 kph) - in less
27、than 40 seconds. Like hitting the top of the water, he will begin to slow as he approaches the more dense air closer to Earth. But this will not be enough to stop him completely.If he goes too fast or spins out of control, he has a stabilization parachute that can be deployed to slow him down. His t
28、eam hopes its not needed. Instead, he plans to deploy his 270-square-foot (25-square-meter) main chute at an altitude of around 5,000 feet (1,524 meters).In order to deploy this chute successfully, he will have to slow to 172 mph (277 kph). He will have a reserve parachute that will open automatical
29、ly if he loses consciousness at mach speeds.Even if everything goes as planned, it wont. Baumgartner still will free fall at a speed that would cause you and me to pass out, and no parachute is guaranteed to work higher than 25,000 feet (7,620 meters).It might not be the moon, but Kittinger free fell from 102,800 feet in 1960 - at the dawn of an infamous space race that captured the hearts of many. Baumgartner will attempt to break that record, a feat that boggles the mind. This is one of those monumental moments I will always remember, because there is no way Id miss this.
