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1、城市出租车现状分析与远景预测 城市出租车现状分析与远景预测 摘 要出租车是市民出行的重要交通工具之1，解决好出租车行业存在的各种问题，调和好出租车司机与乘客之间的利益矛盾，对改善城市形象、促进社会和谐都具有极其重要的意义。 基于所给城市的相关数据，本文结合国内其他城市的出租车行业情况和国家经济发展相关统计资料，充分分析所给城市特点，做了以下几个方面的工作： （1）预测了该城市2004-2020年人口数量； 利用全国城镇居民历年交通支出统计数据估计了该城市居民交通费用并据此预测了居民出行强度；在考虑到流动人口与常住人口差异性的基础上， 预测了城市出行人口、出行人次和出租车人
2、口；根据公交出行OD分布以及居民出行方式结构，拟合了分中心区和边缘区的出租车出行OD分布。 （2）刻划了乘客满意度与空驶率、出租车数量、出租车赢利之间的关系，在充分考虑乘客与出租车利益的基础上，确定了2004-2020年该城市出租车最佳数量区间，如2004年出租车数量应该控制在 4781.6辆和 4899.8辆之间。（3）分析了油价调整前后和出租车价格的变化给乘客满意度和出租车利润率带来的影响，进而给出了让乘客和出租车司机都满意的价格调整范围。当油价上升至4.30元/升时，该城市的出租车均价最好控制在2.4676 元/公里到3.0251 元/公里范围内。 （4）提出了合
3、理并切实可行的数据采集方案；并且站在政府管理角度，给出了出租车行业规划思路。关键字： 出行强度；出行次数 ；出行人数 ；空驶率； &n
4、bsp; City rental car present situation analysis and prospect forecastAbstractThe rental car is one of important transportation vehicles which the resident goes on a journey, solves good rental car profession existence each kind of problem, between the well distributed good ta
5、xi driver and passengers benefit is contradictory, to improves the city image, the promotion society harmoniously all has the extremely vital significance. Based on gives the city the correlation data, this article unifies the domestic other cities the rental car profession situation and the s
6、tate economy development correlation statistical data, the full analysis gives the city characteristic, has done following several aspect work: (1) Forecast this city 2004-2020 year population quantity; According to the above used the national cities inhabitant all previous years transportatio
7、n disbursement statistical data to estimate this city people transportation expense and had forecast the inhabitant went on a journey the intensity; In considered the transient population and in the resident population different foundation, has forecast the city journey population, the journey peopl
8、e of and the rental car population; Goes on a journey the OD distribution according to the public transportation as well as the inhabitant goes on a journey the way structure, fitted has divided the central area and the fringe area rental car goes on a journey the OD distribution. (2) Scored t
9、he passenger degree of satisfaction with to drive without a load rate, between rental car quantity, the rental car profit relations, in considered fully the passenger and in the rental car benefit foundation, had determined 2004-2020 year this city rental car best quantity sector, like in 2004 renta
10、l car quantity should control in 4781.6 and between 4899.8.(3) Analyzed around the oil price adjustment and the rental car price change the influence which the degree of satisfaction and the rental car profit margin brings for the passenger, then gave has let the price adjustment scope which the pas
11、senger and the taxi drivers all satisfied.When oil price rise to 4.30 Yuan/litres, this city rental car even price best control in 2.4676 Yuan/kilometers to 3.0251 Yuan/kilometer scopes in.(4) Proposed reasonable and the practical and feasible data acquisition plan; And stands in the government manages the angle, has given the rental car profession plan mentality.Keyboad: Journey intensity; Journey number of times; Journey population; Drives without
