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1、第2篇 古典理论：长期中的经济,Part Classical Theory:The Economy in the Long Run,CHAPTER THREENational Income:Where it Comes From and Where it Goes国民收入：从哪里来到哪里去,slide 2,In this chapter you will learn:,what determines the economys total output/income是什么决定了经济的总产出/收入how the prices of the factors of production are det
2、ermined产出要素的价格是如何决定的how total income is distributed总收入如何分配what determines the demand for goods and services什么因素决定产品与服务需求how equilibrium in the goods market is achieved如何实现产品与服务市场的均衡,slide 3,Figure 3.1 The Circular Flow of Dollars Through the Economy货币在经济中的循环流程,slide 4,Outline of model,A closed econo
3、my,market-clearing model封闭经济，市场出清Supply side供应方factor markets(supply,demand,price)生产要素市场（供给、需求、价格）determination of output/income产出/收入的决定Demand side需求方determinants of C,I,and G C，I，G 的决定Equilibrium均衡goods market产品与服务市场loanable funds market可贷资金市场,slide 5,Factors of production,K=capital,K=资本tools,machi
4、nes,and structures used in production用于生产的工具、机器、厂房等L=labor,L=劳动力 the physical and mental efforts of workers工人的体力和脑力劳动,slide 6,The production function,denoted Y=F(K,L)shows how much output(Y)the economy can produce fromK units of capital and L units of labor.产出Y是资本K 和劳动L 的函数 reflects the economys lev
5、el of technology.反映经济的技术水平exhibits constant returns to scale.具有规模报酬不变的特征,slide 7,Returns to scale:a review,Initially Y1=F(K1,L1)Scale all inputs by the same factor z:K2=zK1 and L2=zL1(If z=1.25,then all inputs are increased by 25%)What happens to output,Y2=F(K2,L2)?If constant returns to scale规模报酬不变
6、,Y2=zY1 If increasing returns to scale规模报酬递增,Y2 zY1 If decreasing returns to scale规模报酬递减,Y2 zY1,slide 8,Exercise:determine returns to scale,Determine whether each of the following production functions has constant,increasing,or decreasing returns to scale讨论下列生产函数是规模报酬不变、递增还是递减:,slide 9,Assumptions o
7、f the model模型假设,Technology is fixed技术水平不变.The economys supplies of capital and labor are fixed at经济总资本和劳动力的供给不变,slide 10,Determining GDP,Output is determined by the fixed factor supplies and the fixed state of technology产出由固定的生产要素供给和固定的技术水平决定:,slide 11,The distribution of national income国民收入的分配,dete
8、rmined by factor prices,the prices per unit that firms pay for the factors of production.生产要素价格的决定，企业支付给生产要素的报酬 The wage is the price of L,劳动力的价格是工资the rental rate is the price of K.资本的价格是租金率,slide 12,Notation,W=nominal wage名义工资 R=nominal rental rate名义租金率 P=price of output产出价格 W/P=real wage 实际工资(mea
9、sured in units of output)R/P=real rental rate实际租金率,slide 13,How factor prices are determined要素的价格是如何决定的,Factor prices are determined by supply and demand in factor markets.要素的价格由要素市场的需求和供给决定的Recall:Supply of each factor is fixed.要素的供给给定What about demand?,slide 14,Demand for labor劳动力的需求,Assume market
10、s are competitive假设市场完全竞争:each firm takes W,R,and P as given企业是工资率、租金率和价格的接受者Basic idea:A firm hires each unit of labor if the cost does not exceed the benefit如果成本不超过收益，企业雇用劳动力.cost=real wage 成本=实际工资率benefit=marginal product of labor 收益=劳动力的边际产量,slide 15,Marginal product of labor(MPL)劳动力的边际产量,def:Th
11、e extra output the firm can produce using an additional unit of labor(holding other inputs fixed):假设其它生产要素投入不变，企业增加一个单位的劳动力投入所增加的产量MPL=F(K,L+1)F(K,L),slide 16,Exercise:compute&graph MPL,Determine MPL at each value of LGraph the production function写出生产函数Graph the MPL curvewith MPL on the vertical axi
12、s and L on the horizontal axis画出MPL曲线，纵轴为MPL横轴为L,LYMPL00n.a.110?219?3278434?540?645?749?852?954?1055?,slide 17,answers:,slide 18,Youtput,The MPL and the production function劳动的边际产量与生产函数,Llabor,MPL,slide 19,Diminishing marginal returns边际报酬递减,As a factor input is increased,its marginal product falls(ot
13、her things equal).随着要素投入的增加，要素的边际产量减少（其它条件不变）Intuition:L while holding K fixed资本K 不变，L增加 fewer machines per worker 单位劳动占有的资本减少 lower productivity产量减少,slide 20,Check your understanding:,Which of these production functions have diminishing marginal returns to labor下列生产函数哪些是劳动力的边际报酬递减?,slide 21,Exercis
14、e(part 2),Suppose W/P=6.If L=3,should firm hire more or less labor?Why?If L=7,should firm hire more or less labor?Why?,LYMPL00n.a.110102199327843475406645574948523954210551,slide 22,MPL and the demand for labor,Each firm hires labor up to the point where MPL=W/P,slide 23,The equilibrium real wage,Th
15、e real wage adjusts to equate labor demand with supply.实际工资率调整，使劳动需求等于供给,slide 24,Determining the rental rate,We have just seen that MPL=W/PThe same logic shows that MPK=R/P:diminishing returns to capital资本的边际报酬递减:MPK as K The MPK curve is the firms demand curve for renting capital.MPK曲线是企业对资本的需求曲线
16、Firms maximize profits by choosing K such that MPK=R/P.当企业购买的资本量满足MPK=R/P 时，企业实现利润最大化,slide 25,The equilibrium real rental rate实际租金率的均衡,The real rental rate adjusts to equate demand for capital with supply.实际租金率的调整使资本的需求等于供给,slide 26,The Neoclassical Theory of Distribution新古典分配理论,states that each fa
17、ctor input is paid its marginal product每一生产要素按边际产量获得报酬accepted by most economists被大部分经济学家所接受,slide 27,How income is distributed:,total labor income=劳动总收入,If production function has constant returns to scale,then 如果生产函数规模报酬不变,total capital income=资本总收入,slide 28,Outline of model,A closed economy,marke
18、t-clearing modelSupply sidefactor markets(supply,demand,price)determination of output/incomeDemand sidedeterminants of C,I,and GEquilibriumgoods marketloanable funds market,DONE,DONE,Next,slide 29,Demand for goods&services产品与服务的需求,Components of aggregate demand总需求包括:C=consumer demand for g&s对产品与服务的消
19、费需求I=demand for investment goods投资需求G=government demand for g&s政府需求(closed economy:no NX),slide 30,Consumption,C,def:disposable income可支配收入 is total income minus total taxes总收入减去总税收:Y TConsumption function消费函数:C=C(Y T)Shows that(Y T)C 可支配收入增加，则消费增加def:The marginal propensity to consume边际消费倾向 is the
20、increase in C caused by a one-unit increase in disposable income增加一个单位的可支配收入引起的消费的增加量.,slide 31,The consumption function,slide 32,Investment,I,The investment function is投资函数为 I=I(r),where r denotes the real interest rate r表示实际率,the nominal interest rate corrected for inflation名义利率要根据通货膨胀率加以调整.The re
21、al interest rate is the cost of borrowing借贷的成本 the opportunity cost of using ones own funds to finance investment spending使用自有资金进行投资的机会成本.So,r I,slide 33,The investment function,slide 34,Government spending,G,G includes government spending on goods and services政府对产品与服务的购买.G excludes transfer payment
22、s 政府购买不包括转移支付Assume government spending and total taxes are exogenous:假设证否购买和总税收是外生给定的,slide 35,The market for goods&services,The real interest rate adjusts to equate demand with supply.实际利率的调整使产品与服务的供求达到均衡,slide 36,The loanable funds market可贷资金市场,A simple supply-demand model of the financial system
23、金融市场的供求模型.One asset:“loanable funds”demand for funds需求:investment投资 supply of funds供给:saving储蓄“price”of funds价格:real interest rate实际利率,slide 37,Demand for funds:Investment可贷资金需求：投资,The demand for loanable funds:comes from investment:Firms borrow to finance spending on plant&equipment,new office buil
24、dings,etc企业借贷进行生产及设备、厂房等投资.Consumers borrow to buy new houses消费者借贷用于购买新的住宅.depends negatively on r,the“price”of loanable funds(the cost of borrowing).可贷资金需求与利率负相关,slide 38,Loanable funds demand curve,The investment curve is also the demand curve for loanable funds.投资曲线就是可贷资金到需求曲线,slide 39,Supply of
25、funds:Saving可贷资金供给：储蓄,The supply of loanable funds comes from saving可贷资金供给来源于储蓄:Households use their saving to make bank deposits,purchase bonds and other assets.These funds become available to firms to borrow to finance investment spending.家庭将储蓄存在银行，或购买债券和其它有价资产，课供企业借贷进行投资。这是私人储蓄。The government may
26、 also contribute to saving if it does not spend all of the tax revenue it receives.政府的税收大于政府的支出时，这是公共储蓄。,slide 40,Types of saving,private saving私人储蓄=(Y T)Cpublic saving公共储蓄=T Gnational saving国民储蓄,S=private saving+public saving=(Y T)C+T G=Y C G,slide 41,Notation:=change in a variable,For any variable
27、 X,X=“the change in X”is the Greek(uppercase)letter Delta,Examples:If L=1 and K=0,then Y=MPL.More generally,if K=0,then,(YT)=Y T,soC=MPC(Y T)=MPC Y MPC T,slide 42,EXERCISE:Calculate the change in saving,Suppose MPC=0.8 and MPL=20.For each of the following,compute S:G=100 T=100 Y=100 L=10,slide 43,An
28、swers,slide 44,Digression细枝末节:Budget surpluses and deficits预算盈余与预算赤字,When T G,budget surplus=(T G)=public saving公共储蓄0When T G,budget deficit=(G T)and public saving is negative公共储蓄0.When T=G,budget is balanced and public saving=0.预算平衡，公共储蓄=0,slide 45,The U.S.Federal Government Budget美国联邦政府的预算,(T-G)as
29、 a percent of GDP,slide 46,The U.S.Federal Government Debt美国联邦政府的债务,Fact:In the early 1990s,about 18 cents of every tax dollar went to pay interest on the debt.(Today its about 9 cents.),slide 47,中国的国家财政债务发行情况（单位:亿元）,slide 48,我国国债发行的规模（单位:亿元）,注:(1)1998 年的内债额包括增发1000 亿元部分,国债余额不包括2700 亿元特别国债,1999 年的国债
30、规模包括了增发的600 亿元国债。(2)2000 年的还本付息中,包含了已经纳入预算内支出的676.71 亿元的国债付息支出,但余额中没有考虑付息的累计因素。(3)资料来源:财政部、人民银行、历年的中国财政年鉴。,slide 49,政府债务规模(截至2000 年底),单位:人民币亿元,slide 50,中国的债务负担,根据欧盟拟订的标准，债务负担率的警戒线为60%。目前我国显性债务占GDP总值的20%多一点，这似乎是一个可以高枕无忧的数字。如果综合考虑中央政府债务、国家财政赤字、国有企业亏损、国有金融机构不良资产、国有（土地）资产流失以及社会保障资金缺口等潜在风险，并考虑到中国经济已经保持了近
31、四分之一世纪的高增长，以及老龄化提前到来等环境因素“但我们的隐性债务非常严重（在中国，政府的隐性和或有债务主要包括：没有登记的部门的以及地方政府担保的隐性外债和或有外债，国有金融机构的不良资产以及破产损失，社会保障欠账，粮食挂账和供销社挂账，地方财政的隐性赤字，各级政府的担保、融资和拖欠等等。）据公开资料，2003年我国GDP总值为11万多亿元，目前银行有不良资产2万亿，社保欠账2万亿，再加上悬而未决的地方债务，债务负担率已经非常接近欧盟规定的警戒标准。”,slide 51,中国财政风险的制度特征：“风险大锅饭”,1998年以来，政府几次为四大国有银行注资、通过成立资产管理公司处理其不良资产等
32、措施（注：1998年为四大国有银行注资2700亿元人民币，以充实其资本金；1999年成立四大资产管理公司为四大国有银行剥离不良资产14000亿元人民币；2004年1月再次为中国银行和中国建设银行注资450亿元美元，为其股份制改造做准备。）,slide 52,乡村政府债务,关于乡村债务总额，社会上有以下几种估计：农业部1998年的统计表明，全国乡村两级债务共计3259亿元，平均每个乡镇298万元，每个村20万元。另有官员统计，中国乡镇将近5万个，平均每个乡镇负债400余万元，计2200亿元左右。还有基层干部推算，全国近3000个县（市），如平均每个县（市）的债务按23个亿计算，全国农村债务大约在
33、60009000亿之间。但有专家学者认为远不止这个数。我国乡村债务总额过大，令人担忧。乡村债务占我国GDP 的比重在510%之间，占我国财政收入的比重在30%50%之间，乡村债务总额负担实际上已超过长期建设国债负担。,slide 53,Loanable funds supply curve可贷资金供给曲线,National saving does not depend on r,so the supply curve is vertical.国民储蓄不取决于利率r，所以供给曲线垂直,slide 54,Loanable funds market equilibrium,slide 55,The
34、special role of r,r adjusts to equilibrate the goods market and the loanable funds market simultaneously 利率r同时调整产品与服务市场和可贷资金市场:If L.F.market in equilibrium,then如果可贷资金市场均衡，则Y C G=I Add(C+G)to both sides to getY=C+I+G(goods market eqm产品与服务市场均衡)Thus,slide 56,Digression:mastering models,To learn a model
35、 well,be sure to know要更好的学会使用模型，要注意以下要点:Which of its variables are endogenous and which are exogenous.确定哪些变量是内生变量，哪些是外生变量For each curve in the diagram,know对每一条曲线，要明确Definition定义intuition for slope斜率all the things that can shift the curve影响曲线移动的因素Use the model to analyze the effects of each item in 2
36、c.运用模型分析各种影响因素的效果,slide 57,Mastering the loanable funds model掌握可贷资金模型,1.Things that shift the saving curve引起储蓄曲线移动的因素public saving公共储蓄 fiscal policy财政政策:changes in G or Tprivate saving私人储蓄Preferences消费者偏好tax laws that affect saving税收政策影响储蓄401(k)IRAreplace income tax with consumption tax消费税取代收入税,slid
37、e 58,美国的储蓄构成,slide 59,国民储蓄,美国未来的国民储蓄率将从过去几年的0-2%之间，回到上世纪90年代的5%-6%之间，或上世纪80年代的8%-10%之间。而中国的储蓄率，则不能再维持目前50%左右的高水平。美国过去30年间，生活水平提高，人均GDP从1978年的1万美元，上升到2008年的4万多美元，但储蓄率下降。中国则与此不同，过去30年的经验是，经济快速增长，人民生活水平提高后，储蓄率提高，或消费支出的比率在下降。具体看，人均GDP从1978年大约150美元，2008年近3000美元，但储蓄率在上世纪80年代大约在33%-36%之间，上世纪90年代大约在 37%-41%
38、之间，本世纪大约在40%-50%之间。,slide 60,中国的高储蓄,当前国民总储蓄占GDP的比重差不多是50%，家庭储蓄率在总储蓄中的比重又在不断下降。其中政府储蓄占GDP的比重是12%，家庭储蓄占16%，企业储蓄占22%。这意味着国民收入分配向政府、企业倾斜。但如果从储蓄占可支配收入的比重，我国家庭储蓄率在1995年是 17.3%，2000年是19.87%，明显可以看出是在上涨。这意味着家庭部门得到收入以后，用于储蓄的比例在上升。”从这两个数据可以看出，我国消费不足的问题不只是居民有钱不消费，而是居民可支配收入增长缓慢，在有限的个人收入里，存在抑制消费的因素。上世纪六七十年代的日本，九十
39、年代的韩国，其储蓄率都超过35%，八九十年代的新加坡，九十年代的马来西亚，其储蓄甚至超过40%。相比之下，更令人担心的是我国的国民收入中，资本总收入占的比重远远高于工资收入。我国的收入分配对资本要素所有者的倾斜，就会造成极度的收入不平等，这就会加大我国的储蓄率。,slide 61,CASE STUDYThe Reagan Deficits里根政府的赤字,Reagan policies during early 1980s:increases in defense spending:G 0big tax cuts:T 0According to our model,both policies r
40、educe national saving:,slide 62,1.The Reagan deficits,cont.,I1,2.which causes the real interest rate to rise引起实际利率上升,I2,3.which reduces the level of investment.减少投资水平,1.The increase in the deficit reduces saving赤字增加储蓄减少,slide 63,Are the data consistent with these results?,variable1970s1980sT G2.23.9
41、S19.617.4r1.16.3I19.919.4,TG,S,and I are expressed as a percent of GDPAll figures are averages over the decade shown.,slide 64,Now you try,Draw the diagram for the loanable funds model.Suppose the tax laws are altered to provide more incentives for private saving.假设税法鼓励私人储蓄 What happens to the inter
42、est rate and investment?利率和投资发生什么变化(Assume that T doesnt change),slide 65,Mastering the loanable funds model,2.Things that shift the investment curve影响投资曲线的因素certain technological innovations 技术创新to take advantage of the innovation,firms must buy new investment goods企业增加投资tax laws that affect invest
43、ment税收政策影响投资investment tax credit投资税赋优惠,slide 66,An increase in investment demand,An increase in desired investment,r1,slide 67,Saving and the interest rate储蓄与利率,Why might saving depend on r?为什么储蓄取决于利率How would the results of an increase in investment demand be different?Would r rise as much?Would t
44、he equilibrium value of I change?,slide 68,An increase in investment demand when saving depends on the interest rate当储蓄取决于利率时投资增加的情况,slide 69,Chapter summary,Total output is determined by总产出取决于how much capital and labor the economy has资本量和劳动量the level of technology技术水平Competitive firms hire each fac
45、tor until its marginal product equals its price.完全竞争企业按边际产量等于其价格的原则雇佣劳动 If the production function has constant returns to scale,then labor income plus capital income equals total income(output).假设生产函数规模报酬不变，总收入/总产出=劳动收入+资本收入,slide 70,Chapter summary,The economys output is used for总产出包括consumption 消
46、费（取决于可支配收入）(which depends on disposable income)Investment投资（取决于实际利率）(depends on the real interest rate)government spending政府购买（外生给定变量）(exogenous)The real interest rate adjusts to equate the demand for and supply of实际利率调整使供求均衡goods and services产品与服务市场loanable funds可贷资金市场,slide 71,Chapter summary,A decrease in national saving causes the interest rate to rise and investment to fall.国民储蓄的减少使利率上升，投资减少 An increase in investment demand causes the interest rate to rise,but does not affect the equilibrium level of investment if the supply of loanable funds is fixed.投资增加引起利率上升，但并不影响均衡的投资水平，假设可贷资金供给不变,
