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1、第07讲 知名技术分析师简介,张增伟南开大学经济学院金融学系,南开大学金融学科技术分析课程（2013年春季）,本PPT的版权仅为南开大学经济学院金融学系教师张增伟本人所有，仅供学术交流之用。未经本人书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、发表或引用。本PPT中的信息均源自公开资讯，本人对这些资讯的准确性、完整性、及时性不作任何保证。任何声称依据本PPT中的信息或观点所从事的证券投资活动，其损益均与本人无关。,版权及免责声明,版权人张增伟联络方式,CONTENTS,目 录,4,3,2,1,5,Ralph Nelson ElliottJoseph E.GranvilleGerald
2、 AppelTom AsprayGeorge C.LaneJ.Welles WilderLarry R.WilliamsJohn Bollinger,6,7,8,1 Ralph Nelson Elliott,By EWIThis article was excerpted from a detailed 64-page biography in R.N.Elliotts Masterworks(New Classics Library,1994).This book contains all of R.N.Elliotts books and articles,plus highlights
3、from his market letters.,Ralph Nelson Elliott was of that rarest of breeds,a true scholar in the practical world of finance.Financial analyst Hamilton Bolton accurately described the enormity of Elliotts feat when he said that he developed his principle into a rational method of stock market analysi
4、s on a scale never before attempted.Brilliant and persistent,Elliott reached his ultimate achievement late in life by a circuitous route that included fortune in the disguise of disaster.,Elliott was born on July 28,1871 in Marysville,Kansas,and later moved to San Antonio,Texas.Around 1896,he entere
5、d the accounting field,and for twenty-five years held executive positions primarily with railroad companies in Mexico and Central America.By rescuing numerous companies from financial difficulty,Elliott earned a reputation as an expert business organizer.Finally,in early 1920,he moved to New York Ci
6、ty.Elliotts specialty made him the perfect choice for one of the U.S.governments international projects.In 1924,the U.S.State Department chose him to become the Chief Accountant for Nicaragua,which was under the control of the U.S.Marines at the time.In February 1925,Elliott began applying his exper
7、ience in corporate reorganization to reorganizing the finances of an entire country.,When the U.S.extricated itself from Nicaragua,Elliott moved to Guatemala City to assume another corporate executive position:general auditor of the International Railway of Central America.During this time,Elliott w
8、rote two books:Tea Room and Cafeteria Management,published in August 1926 by Little,Brown&Company,and The Future of Latin America,an analysis of the economic and social problems of Latin America and a proposal for creating economic stability and lasting prosperity in the region.With one book sold an
9、d the second one under consideration,Elliott decided to return to the United States to set up an independent management consulting business.It was around this time that he began to feel the symptoms of an alimentary tract illness caused by the organism amoeba histolytica that he contracted Central A
10、merica.,Elliotts reputation,built upon a distinguished career,his new book,and a long list of references,was soaring.Book reviews were favorable,he was in demand as a speaker,and his consulting business was beginning to grow.Just when Elliotts future appeared its brightest,however,his illness sudden
11、ly worsened.By 1929,it had developed into a debilitating case of pernicious anemia,leaving him bedridden.The adventurous and productive R.N.Elliott was forced into an unwanted retirement at the age of 58.Several times over the next five years,he came extremely close to death.Elliott needed something
12、 to occupy his mind while recuperating between the worst attacks of his illness.It was around this time that he turned his full attention to studying the behavior of the stock market.,Investigating the possibility of form in the marketplace,Elliott examined yearly,monthly,weekly,daily,hourly and hal
13、f-hourly charts of the various indexes covering 75 years of stock market behavior.In doing so,he was fulfilling a mission that he had enunciated for all responsible men in his manuscript on Latin America:There is a reason for everything,and it is ones duty to try to discover it.”In May 1934,two mont
14、hs after his final brush with death,Elliotts observations of stock market behavior began coming together into a general set of principles that applied to all degrees of wave movement in the stock price averages.Todays scientific term for a large part of Elliotts observation about markets is that the
15、y are fractal,coming under the umbrella of chaos science,although he went further in actually describing the component patterns and how they linked together.The former expert organizer of businesses had uncovered,through meticulous study,the organizational principle behind the movement of markets.As
16、 he got more proficient in the application of his principles and corrected initial errors in their formulation,their accuracy began to amaze him.,By November 1934,R.N.Elliotts confidence in his ideas had developed to the point that he decided to present them to at least one member of the financial c
17、ommunity:Charles J.Collins of Investment Counsel,Inc.in Detroit.Collins had traditionally put off the numerous correspondents who offered him systems for beating the market by asking them to forecast the market for awhile,assuming that any truly worthwhile system would stand out when applied in curr
18、ent time.Not surprisingly,the vast majority of these systems proved to be dismal failures.Elliotts principle,however,was another story.,The Dow Jones averages had been declining throughout early 1935,and Elliott had pinpointed hourly turns by telegram with a fair degree of accuracy.In the second wee
19、k of February,the Dow Jones Rail Average,as Elliott had previously predicted,broke below its 1934 low of 33.19.Advisors were turning negative and memories of the 1929-32 crash were immediately rekindled as bearish pronouncements about the future course of the economy proliferated.The Dow Industrials
20、 had fallen about 11%and were approaching the 96 level while the Rails(a more important average then)had fallen 50%from their 1933 peak to the 27 level.On Wednesday,March 13,1935,just after the close of trading,with the Dow Jones averages finishing near the lows for the day,Elliott sent a telegram t
21、o Collins and flatly stated the following:NOTWITHSTANDING BEARISH(DOW)IMPLICATIONS ALL AVERAGES ARE MAKING FINAL BOTTOM.,Collins read the telegram on the morning of the next day,Thursday,March 14,1935,the day of the closing low for the Dow Industrials that year.The day prior to the telegram,Tuesday,
22、March 12,marked the 1935 closing low for the Dow Jones Rails.The thirteen month“correction”was over,and the market immediately turned to the upside.Two months later,as the market continued on its upward climb,Collins,impressed by Elliotts dogmatism and accuracy,agreed to collaborate on a book on the
23、 Wave Principle suitable for public distribution.The Wave Principle was published on August 31,1938.The first chapter makes the following statements:,No truth meets more general acceptance than that the universe is ruled by law.Without law,it is self-evident there would be chaos,and where chaos is,n
24、othing is.Very extensive research in connection with.human activities indicates that practically all developments which result from our social-economic processes follow a law that causes them to repeat themselves in similar and constantly recurring serials of waves or impulses of definite number and
25、 pattern.The stock market illustrates the wave impulse common to social-economic activity.It has its law,just as is true of other things throughout the universe.,Within weeks after the publication of his ground-breaking book,Elliott packed up his belongings and moved to an apartment hotel in Columbi
26、a Heights,Brooklyn,a short subway stop from Manhattans financial district.On November 10,he published the first in a long series of Interpretive Letters that analyzed and forecasted the path of the stock market.Ralph Elliott was finally back in the saddle,and as independently in business as he had p
27、lanned eleven years before.In early 1939,Elliott was commissioned to write twelve articles on the Wave Principle for Financial World magazine.These articles established Elliotts reputation with the investment community,and led to his publishing a series of Educational Bulletins.One of these was a gr
28、ound-breaking work that lifted the Wave Principle from a comprehensive catalog of the markets behavioral patterns to a broad theory of collective human behavior that was new to the fields of economics and sociology.By the early 1940s,Elliott had fully developed his concept that the ebb and flow of h
29、uman emotions and activities follow a natural progression governed by laws of nature.He tied the patterns of collective human behavior to the Fibonacci,or golden ratio,a mathematical phenomenon known for millennia by mathematicians,scientists,artists,architects and philosophers as one of natures ubi
30、quitous laws of form and progress.,Elliott then put together what he considered his definitive work,Natures Law-The Secret of the Universe.This rather grandly titled monograph,which Elliott published at age 75,includes almost every thought he had concerning the theory of the Wave Principle.The book
31、was published June 10,1946,and the reported 1000 copies sold out quickly to various members of the New York financial community.Less than two years before his death,Elliott had finally made his mark upon history.As a result of Elliotts pioneering research,today,thousands of institutional portfolio m
32、anagers,traders and private investors use the Wave Principle in their investment decision making.Ralph Elliott undoubtedly would be gratified to see it.,2 Joseph E.Granville,Joseph E.Granville葛兰碧（葛兰维尔）1923年8月20日生美国金融投资家、演说家。,Granville在20世纪80年代早期拥有众多追随者。70年代末期，他的纪录一度非常好，在鼎盛时期，他甚至能以一人的力量影响市场。1981年1月6日
33、下午6点30分，Granville传话给全球三千位投资客户：“出清所有股票统统卖掉。”次日晨，证券公司里卖单泛滥，道琼工业平均指数急速下挫，约等于400亿美元的帐面损失，是1929年黑色星期四大跌的三倍。1981年9月，他的卖出指示甚至会引起美国股市的恐慌情绪。他的一个爱好是“秀”自己。鼎盛时期，大众对他的爱戴一如摇滚明星，他的巡回讲座时常超额订位。有次演讲他被问到，如何在旅行中掌握股市脉动，他马上脱下长裤，露出上面写着各种股票报价的短裤。在研讨会上，他会从特意摆放的棺材中爬出来，可谓惊世骇俗！有时，他会模仿以色列宗教领袖摩西的打扮，配上皇冠展示他所谓的风采。在那段时间里，只要他一开口，投资人
34、真的竖耳倾听至少有一段时间如此。,Stock market analyst Joseph Granville making a funUNITED STATES-FEBRUARY 06:Stock market analyst Joseph Granville making a funny face in front of an electronic stock ticker.Photo:Thomas S.EnglandFeb 06,1981,传说Granville宣称掌握了地震预测技术，胜率是6/7。不过Granville的预测在八十年代和九十年代却不尽人意。Granville市场通讯（Gr
35、anville Market Letter）自八十年代早期就警告股市将有灾难。当道琼工业指数走到800点时，Granville告诉客户，股市正在崩盘中。他认为投资人不仅该卖出手中持股，还要卖空，以便在金融末日中获利。结果股市反而站上1200点。1984年他再度警告数目变少的客户:“多头市场只是一个泡沫假象”，崩盘将至。Granville的信徒因此痛失80年代的大多头市场，他身为股市先知呼风唤雨的地位，从此一去不返。,WHO IS JOSEPH GRANVILLE?Written in 2005 by For the past 24 years Joseph Granville has been
36、 living with his wife Karen in Kansas City Missouri.He is best Known as a stock market Technical Analyst.Now almost 82,his latest book HOW TO READ THE STOCK MARKET was published last year.It explains an applies his entire theory of On-Balance Volume.Granville was born on August 20,1923 in Yonkers,Ne
37、w York.His early education and training was music,improvising at the piano at 3.Finished his high school training on a music scholarship at the Todd School For Boys in Woodstock,Illinois,a school made famous by the recent graduation there of Orson Wells.Following a school bus tour to Monterrey and S
38、altillo in Mexico,he was inspired to write his first book,A SCHOOL BOYS FAITH which was published by Fleming Revell,New York and London,in 1941.It not only was a Travelogue in poetry,but also his philosophy of life.,While a sophomore at Duke University,Joe enlisted in the Navy in 1943.He was commiss
39、ioned in January 1945 and ordered to report to Roi Namur in the Marshall Islands.While there,he wrote the first edition of PRICE PREDICTIONS,predicting future prices of U.S.commemorative stamps for speculators.A second edition was published in 1946.A two-volume edition was published in 1947 and a fo
40、urth in 1956.EVERYBODYS GUIDE TO STAMP INVESTMENT was published in 1952.Joe was hired by E.F.Hutton in October 1957 to write their daily stock market letter.He quit Hutton in August 1963 to start the GRANVILLE MARKET LETTER which is now in its 42nd year of continuous publication.In addition to this,
41、Granville also writes a daily stock market commentary.,Granville is best known for his stock market books,A STRATEGY OF DAILY STOCK MARKET TIMING FOR MAXIMUM PROFIT in 1960,GRANVILLES NEW KEY TO STOCK MARKET PROFITS in 1963,GRANVILLES NEW STRATEGY OF DAILY STOCK MARKET TIMING FOR MAXIMUM PROFIT in 1
42、976,THE WARNING in 1985,THE BOOK OF GRANVILLE in 1985,AFTER THE CRASH in 1987,THE STOCK MARKET TEACHER in 1988,GRANVILLES LAST STAND in 1995,HOW TO READ THE STOCK MARKET in 2004.His fame rapidly grew following hundreds of seminars starting in 1978.aside from all that,he wants to be best known for hi
43、s major contributionsto technical analysis and what he has taught to his followers all over the world.,3 Gerald Appel,Gerald Appel,President of the Signalert Corporation,two have received the coveted“Book of the Year Award”from Yale Hirschs annual publication,“The Stock Traders Almanac.”,From：,Mr.Ap
44、pel has appeared on television and radio on many occasions,including as a guest on“Wall Street Week”with Louis Ruykeyser,and is widely known for his market forecasting savvy and expertise.Articles regarding Mr.Appel have appeared in the New York Times,Town and Country,Newsday and elsewhere.He remain
45、s actively involved in his work.His most recently published book(2008),“Beat the Market Win With Proven Stock Selection and Market Timing Tools,”has been released By Prentice-Hall.He remains actively involved in the management of Appel Asset Management Corporation as well.,4 Tom Aspray,professional
46、trader and analyst,serves as video content editor for InterShows MoneyS video network.Mr.Aspray joined InterShow full time in June of 2007 where he also does other editorial work for the site,including the bi-weekly trading lessons and the weekly charts to watch.,Mr.Aspray has written widely on tech
47、nical analysis and has given over 60 presentations around the world.Over the years,he has applied his methodologies not only to the stock and commodity markets but also the global markets,mutual funds,and foreign exchange.Many of the technical indicators that Mr.Aspray wrote about in the 1980s,such
48、as the MACD,have since gained worldwide acceptance.He was originally trained as a biochemist but began using his computer expertise to analyze the financial markets in the early 80s.As a consultant,Mr.Aspray wrote daily institutional reports for firms such as Fleming Jardine and Barings Bank and was
49、 noted by the Wall Street Journal as one of the top bond market technicians.,From:=,Dr.George C.Lane is a technical analyst,known as the Father of Stochastics.Dr.Lane is President of Investment Educators,Inc.of Watseka,IL.,5 George C.Lane,Celebrating our 60th anniversary in 2008,INVESTMENT EDUCATORS
50、 is the oldest school in the USA teaching technical analysis of the Futures Market and is the oldest remaining school teaching technical analysis of the Stock Market.Established by Ralph Dystant in 1948 and led to world-wide renown by George Lane,INVESTMENT EDUCATORS began a tradition of innovation
