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1、运营风险管理,波兰华沙大学,Programme,Aims and objectives:To give an integrated perspective on operational risk managementTo enhance basic skills of risk management development programmesKey topics:Key concepts of operational risk managementRisk research and assessmentRisk management,Traditional risk management d
2、eals with uncertainty of markets,NASDAQ Stock Exchange,Burst of New Economy,Boom of New Economy,Why to manage risk?,Only few operational plans run according to the initial schedules and other assumptionsThere is nothing like an operational programme free of risks.A part of business challenge comes o
3、ut from the risk behind them.There are many powers working against your plans.Many will enjoy your fall down.Sometimes the operational management requires unlikely decisions,when the unexpected occurs.It is not possible to forecast and programme a convenient reaction against any risk.However a good
4、manager how to adapt his plans to meet the risks.There is a very narrow gap between foolishness and a reasonable risk and it outcomes from a good understanding of potential losses and accepted risk for the owner and participants of the programme or project.Business is like a game.Very often a winner
5、s grabs the whole pool.Do you lack the luck,or maybe you are unprofessional?Adapt or die!,Effects of business projects,RealityWhat is common for these projects/programmes?,EurotunnelMillennium BugBarrings Bank(trade of derivatives)IRIDIUM cellular networkProject Blue,What is risk?,Risk of unlikely e
6、vents or circumstancesRisk is related to the uncertaintyRisk management includes:concepts,recommendations,procedures,methods and techniques,organisational structures,methodologies,which may reduce or eliminate the effects of unlikely events or circumstances,Major errors of estimation of the risk-pro
7、fit ratio,Case I:A project,which is too risky or costly is being run to its end(Eurotunnel).Effect:significantly lower risk or loss or even crash.Case II:A project rejected,which promised reasonable risk and exceptional profit(KNEX).Effect:win of a competitor.,Personal approaches to riskDangerous ch
8、aracters and personalities,Alergically reacting to riskDrug-dependent peopleIgnorantThose,for whom there is no problem”up to the end,Assessment of risk occurrence Pattern scale,Scale of risk effectsPattern,Map of riskTwo-dimensional matrix of risk estimation P-E,Acceptable risk Fuzzy concept,Differe
9、nt perspectives on risk,ClientSponsorClients ownerCompanyCompanys ownerInsuring companyManagement(legal responsibility)SubcontractorsEmployeesCompetitorsGovernment,local authorities etc.Public opinion,Morphology of risk,RISK,Probability,Factors,Outcomes,Effects,Reasons,Causingevents,Prevention,React
10、ion,Model of risk management process,ReportingEscalationControlDecisions,Aggregation,Monitoring,Performance,Identification,Analysis,Planning,Major ways to react against risk,PreventionTransfer of risk or its effects to others(partner,insurance,forfeiting,factoring,other third parties)Compensation of
11、 risk(derivatives:forwards/futures/options,parallel transactions)Diversification/distribution of riskContingenciesPreventive/correcting actions and proceduresNo reaction acceptance of potential effects,Contingencies against risk,Price marginBalance sheet/budgetCash-flowLead-timeMaterials and capacit
12、ies(active or passive),Key steps of risk management,Identification of risks(reasons,outcomes,effects)Analysis of risks(probabilities,effects etc.)Risks mappingProgramming of preventing and correcting activities(analysis and evaluation of potential variants):Elimination and reduction of risk impactsP
13、rogramming of material,organisational(including preventive and correcting procedures)and financial contingenciesInsurance and compensation of riskImplementation of the new components of risk managementProcesses and environment monitoringReacting:initiation of correcting procedures,Planning of risk m
14、anagement,For each planned activity/operation/process:Identify risk,assess probability of occurrenceAnalyse risk factors(reasons,causing events,symptoms!)Identify possible preventive and correcting actionsIdentify applicable contingenciesAssess effectiveness of preventive and correcting actions and
15、contingenciesSelect the best toolsImplement(plans,procedures,priorities,documentation,monitoring,resources,finance),Key principles of risk management,Its a continuous process,using outputs of operations and environment monitoringRisk management should be integrated with or even incorporated into ope
16、rations managementPreventive and correcting actions should be programmedStandardisation(e.g.scales of risks)Risk audits should be incorporated into company audits,Responsibilities of risk manager Risk manager is the owner of the risk problem,Management of risk analysisManagement of programming of pr
17、eventive and correcting activitiesSupervision of risk monitoring(milestones!)Control and supervision of preventive and correcting activitiesRisk escalation proceduresSupervision of risk related schedules,budgets,resources etc.Supervision of risk records,Key parties of risk management,Operations/Proj
18、ect ManagerRisk AdministratorFinancial manager/Chief Accountant/TreasurerBank/Insurance company/BrokerLawyerRisk managerMarketing managerClientEngineerAuthorities,Key documents of risk management,Working documents:Maps of risksScenarios,CEDAC diagramsFinancial assessment of risksRisks recordsCalcula
19、tions of safety funds and contingenciesPlans-records of preventive and corrective activitiesRisk related organisational proceduresDocumentation related to insurance and compensation of risks,Reporting of risk,Major risksRisks distributionSignificant changes of the level of risksEscalation reportsAct
20、ivitiesCostsCurrent estimation of required budgets for correcting actions,Methodologies for risk management,What they offer:Checklist of risk reasons and factorsConsistent methods for risk assessmentRecords,databasesPattern proceduresConsistent reporting,Risk managementin some project management met
21、hodologies,Major fields of business risk,Operations:InternalRisks related to deliveries and suppliersRisks related to customersRisks related to subcontractorsInvestmentsFinancial activities,Major factors of external risks,MarketLaw&legal systemAct of GodContractsTransportationContractorsPriceTransac
22、tions,Operations financing related riskPayment system(fund transfer infrastructure)Information infrastructureFinancial risksPoliticsSpying,diversionCivilisationEnvironment,Key factors of internal risks,Personnel:IncompetenceMorale(individual and overall)Resources:Bottlenecks/constraining resourcesBr
23、eakdownsOrganisational:Poor organisational behaviourSystems and methods of operations managementLack of professional approach risk managementKey effects of operational risks have impact on theQCD(Quality-Cost-Delivery)triad,Key tools of risk management(1)Scenario analysis,Expert method for predictio
24、n and projection of business processesExperts develop scenarios of:events,actions,outcomes,effects,states etc.Applied to actions planning,from strategic to operational level,e.g.:identification and analysis of risks cascades(waterfalls),preventive and corrective actionsScenario analysis may be based
25、 upon CEDAC diagrams,Key tools of risk management(2)CEDAC(Cause-and-effects diagrams K.Ishikawa),Types of CEDAC diagrams,Process classification type 1(process structure on the central axe,causes added)Process classification type 2(process structure out of the central axe,causes added)Risk factors En
26、umerative analysis of risk causes and effectsImplementation of CEDAC diagrams results in improved quality of the risk teamwork CEDAC diagrams are usually developed during brainstorming sessions,Key tools of risk management(3)Delphi method,Assessment by team of experts(10-50)Opinions are agreed by an
27、onymous questionnaire reviewsAimed at minimisation of inter-quartile intervalsFirst questionnaire includes the basic question and competence self-evaluationFollowing questionnaires include:Medians and inter-quartile intervals for recent answersHer/his recent answer(optionally)Arguments for and again
28、st her/his answer(if outside of the inter-quartile interval)Most frequent answers“for and against”Usually the aim of Delphi session is achieved after 4 steps,Key tools of risk management(4)Three levels method,Advantages:SimplicityAvoided assessment of probabilities and impact of individual factorsTh
29、ree time-series are built(e.g.of cash-flow,lead-times):One for most positive circumstances(optimistic)One for most negative circumstances(pessimistic)Third one for the most expected circumstancesThese three series provide rough estimation of possible situation,thus give basis for reasonable decision
30、sOpen question:who and how should predict the three series?,Key tools of risk management(5)Expected value method,It is weighted average for all possible values for a given phenomena,which may occurProbability is expressed as the percentage of chance for the occurrence of exact valueExpected value is
31、 calculated as a sum of possible values and their probabilitiesOpen question:who and how should estimate the potential values and the probabilities of their occurrence?,Risk managementTen organisational ways to agility improvement,Flexible,capable human and material resourcesFlat structures,delegate
32、d authoritiesOne-operation processes(e.g.:One step-shopping)Parallel processesResponsibilities attached to processes,not position within the organisational chartBalanced loads,contingenciesGood communication(MIS,e-Business,m-Business etc.)Reasonable level of organisational regulations;e.g.flexible(m
33、ultilevel)budgets,not too many rigid procedures etc.Standard lead-times,stress on compression of lead-timesHigh morale,change culture,learning organisation,utilisation of intellectual capital etc.,Other organisational methods against risks,Organisational sensitivity quick escalation of risk symptoms
34、(e.g.attacks on:Pearl Harbour,underground in Tokyo,11 September attack on USA.)Poka-yoke clones:ControlVisualisation/signalisingPreventionCorrection,Due diligence,Process of proving,that the projects/plans were being fulfilled in a competent way and with relevant diligenceDue diligence proves should
35、 justify,that all reasonable measures against risks have been applied,and the effects of risks were not been caused by anyones indolenceDue diligence proves may be used during legal procedures relating to formal responsibilities:internal or external(including courts),Symptoms of efficient risk manag
36、ement,Closed risksRisks moved to right on the risk mapsLow expenditures on correcting activitiesLow losses caused by risks,What should be avoidedUnreasonable management is always costly!,Too sophisticated risk management,as usually occurs with the new management concepts,may result in enormous expen
37、ses on consultingParkinson law is always valid!Artificial activities may occur within the risk management as wellThe basic danger for the company is its management incompetence,Possible directions of research,Theoretical:applications of fuzzy sets and rough sets theories to the risk calculuspatterns
38、 of scenario analysisAI based concepts(e.g.simulation of risks explosions)Empirical:statistical research(e.g.impact of organisational procedures)benchmarking oriented researchImplementations oriented:branch oriented methodologiesinformation systems,Recommended readings,Adams J.,Risk,UCL Press 1995.C
39、hong Y.-Y.,Brown E.M.:Managing Project Risk.Business Risk Management for projects leaders,Financial Times Prentice Hal 2000.Cooper D.F.,Chapman C.B.,Risk Analysis for Large Projects:Models,Methods and Cases,J.Wiley&Sons 1987.Cox A.,Lonsdale C.,The Management of Outsourcing Risk:The Lessons of Experi
40、ence,Earlsgate Press 1997.Culp Ch.L.:The Risk Management Process.Business Strategy and Tactics,John Wiley&Sons 2001.Hall M.E.:Managing Risk:Methods for Software Development,Addison-Wesley 1998.Hamel G.,Prahalad C.K.,Thomas H.,ONeal D.(eds.):Strategic flexibility.Managing in a turbulent environment,John Wiley&Sons 1998.Moran T.H.:Managing International Political Risk,Blackwell 1998.Volberda H.W.,Building the Flexible Firm.How to Remain Competitive,Oxford University Press 1998.Williams Jr.C.A.,Smith M.L.,Young P.C.,Risk Management and Insurance,Irwin McGraw Hill 1998.,
