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1、数字追凶第三季第8集好球Strike!快Go,go,go,go!不错，上Yeah!Righton!出局Youreout!轮到你了ViCk-太好了Waytogo,Vick.Allright.让我们试试平直球1.etsgetalinedrivenow!哦天啊Oh,boy!Johnston看上去不错嘛Johnstonslookingstrong.是的是个新的训练项目Yeah,Saysitsanewconditioningprogram.如果他能保持状态的话Well,ifhekeepsitup,四月份又能川大联盟打出本垒打了hellbebattingcleanupagainforthebigclubi
2、nApril.是的Oh,yeah.上垒Safe!在睡觉吗Vick?Takinganap,Vick?嘿Hey.嘿快来人啊Hey,weneedsomehelphere!我们在他的储物柜找到了药瓶Whenweopenedhislockerandsawthevials,我们就通知了LAPDwecalledLAPD.你真是一个好市民MEGAN:Thatsverycivic-mindedofyou.当然除非这是涉嫌Unless,ofcourse,需要联邦大陪审团深究的thishasmoretodowiththefederalgrandjuryprobe棒球队投毒案件intobaseballdoping.我
3、不想这里的任何人1dontwantanyonehereaccused因为对大陪审团和ofhidinganythingfromthegrandjury.棒球联盟有所隐瞒而被告Andnotfromtheleagueeither.你知道他最近在服药吗？Oh,yeah?Youknowhewasjuicing?不知道对了他最近在训I练肌肉No.Well,hehadputonabitofmusclelately.Vick用那个来记录身体状态Vickusedthattotrackhisstats.他把每次击球都录了下来Hemadevideorecordingsofhisswing.VickJohnstonV
4、ickJohnston.18岁时就加入了奥克兰队HewasdraftedbytheOaklandA,satage18.6年来他一直是联盟最好的击球手Forsixyears,hewasoneoftheA.L.stopsluggers.随后两年Andthen,forthenexttwoyears,他的状态一直不稳定hewasonandofftheDL最终让他回到青年队Finallysenthimbackdowntotheminors.据教练讲这本是他Accordingtothecoach,thiswassupposed重回联盟的比赛tobehiscomebackseason.他一直想Hewasde
5、terminedtomakeitback回到联盟比赛tothebigs.我们在他的笔记本电脑卜二Sowefoundthesee-mails找到了这些邮件onhislaptop.真的?知道是谁发的吗？Oh,yeah?Weknowwheretheyrefrom?还不知道No.Notyet.Sofar,tracingthesource目前追查线索没有结果hasbeenadeadend,buttheyseemtosay但是可以看出有人知道他在服药thattheyknowhewasjuicing,并且他们说“会毁掉你的事业”anditcould,quote/unquote,ruinyourcareer.
6、这么说是勒索信？Sowhat?Blackmail?邮件的附件是什么？Whatsthefileattachment?这就是你来的原因了Thatswhyyourehere.他们称这些方程式Thismathrighthere,theysay,可以证明他在服药provesthathewasusing.这是很复杂的Thisisadvanced棒球统计分♥析♥这是statisticalbaseballanalysis.Thisis.好的这是赛伯计量学？-是的Allright.What?Sabermetrics.Yeah.棒球数学？-是的Baseballmath?Thatsrig
7、ht.Andthis这是相当复杂的你不会在iswayadvanced.Imean,thisisnotthekindofstuff体育报纸中找到这些公式的youregoingtofindintheboxscoresoftheSportingNews,毫无疑问youknow.lltellyouthat.从里面能看出Anywayanyofthatcould他在服药吗？-我不知道spotdruguse?Idontknow.我必须弄清楚Imean,mgoingtohavetofigureout这些缩写和记号♥是什么意思whattheseabbreviationsandnotationsme
8、an.这不是标准的数学吗？Thatsnotstandardmathstuff?当数学家们进行新的分&hearts淅♥的时候Well,whenmathematicianscreatenewtypesofanalyses,他们通常设计出theyoftendevise自己的缩写方式theirownnotationalshorthand.我很喜欢研究难题ButIlovedoingresearch.也许我可以找到这方面的专家Imean,maybellfindsomebodywhoknowsthisfield.球员VickJohnston的死亡原因Well,thedeathOfbasebal
9、lplayerVickJohnston是因为脑内大出血wastheresultofamassivehemorrhageinthebrain.他中风了吗？Hehadastroke?从血管的损伤来看Fromthedamagetothevessels,他当时的血压相当高hisbloodpressuremusthaveskyrocketed.是类固醇的原因吗？Cansteroidscausethat?通常情况下不会Normally,no,but但有些发现here,sthething.JohnstonJohnston的药瓶中有人工类固醇hadvialscontainingadesignersteroid
10、：ThoracycIeneThoracyclene.MostcontainThoracycleneinaformthats大多数的ThoraCydene都可以安全注射safetoinjectbutthisvial但这药瓶里的却是正常剂量的30倍holdsaconcentrationthat,s30timesgreater.这种剂量可以导致Thisstrengthwouldcauseacatastrophicrise血压的迅猛上升inbloodpressure.这会是疏忽所致吗？没有可能Thiswasanaccidentaloverdose?Noway.Thoracyclene的成品剂量Thor
11、acycleneisneverproduced或者使用剂量决不会这么大ordistributedatthisstrength.这是精心准备过的Thisvialwasspeciallyprepared.这么说是故意使用致命剂量的？Soitwasintendedtobelethal?恐怕就是这个原因了Itshardtoseeanotherpurpose.我们调查的是谋杀Sowerelookingatmurder.有人给VickJohnston致命剂量的类同醉SomebodygaveVickJohnstonalethaldoseofsteroids.他们得有办法打开储物柜Sotheyhadtohav
12、eaccesstohisIocker并且搞到ThoracycleneandtheThoracyclene.也许是制药公&hearts词♥把问题药剂流入rtf场Maybethedrugcompanyslippedthetaintedvialintothissupply.实验室说需要更多的时间Sothatwasthelab.Theysaidtheyregoing来确定类固醇的生产商toneedmoretimetoidentifythemanufacturerofthesteroid.好的问题的所在Allright.So,Imean,thequestionis,为什么会选中VickJo
13、hnston?whythisguyVickJohnston?我们先从他妻子入手KellyLetsstartwiththewife-Kelly.不错嘛-是的以前是模特Notbad.Yeah.Formermodel他们结婚8年了onlyshesbeenmarriedforeightyears孩子一个5岁另一个2岁andherkidsarefiveandtwo.Charlie搞清楚那些方程的意思了吗？DidCharliegetahandleontheseequations?是的他认识一个专家Yeah.Imean,apparently,heknowsaguy.来吧冲着我来Comeon.Rightdow
14、ntheoldpipe!投的不错嘛Nicepitch.是的我们在对传统曲线投球的Yeah.We,rejustconductingalittlehands-onstudy物理特性进行技术分♥析♥ofthephysicalpropertiesoftheclassiccurveball.牛顿自己都对曲线球感兴趣Youknow,Newtonhimselfwasinterestedincurveballs.虽然他的年代还没有棒球Imean,clearly,baseballwasntinventedinhisday但他对球在空气中的曲线很感兴趣buthewasfascinate
15、dwiththewayaballcancurvethroughair.谁不是呢？这是空气动力学Andwhowouldn,tbe?It,salluiddynamics.是的空气紧贴球的表面Oh,yeah.See,airstickstothesurfaceoftheball,投球手旋转球的时候so,whenthepitcherputsspinonit,一边的气压变高另一边减小pressurebuildsupononesideanddecreasesontheother,这种不平衡使球有了弧线andthatimbalance,andtheballcurves.击中投球是所有体育比赛中Youknow,
16、hittingthatpitchisone最为困难的一种thehardestfeatsinallofsports.Charles你给我电♥话♥时But,Charles,whenyoucalled,我想你的问题更多的是统计学Ithinkyourquestionhadmoretodowithstatistics.是的你们来看看这个Yeah.Letmeshowyouguyswhatmlookingathere.如你所见WaIdie博士Asyousee,Dr.Waldie,这是很复杂的赛伯计量学thisishigh-levelsabermetrics,but1justdon
17、tknow但我不知道这些符号♥的意思whatsomeofthesesymbolsmean.我连续两年赢得了系里的AndyouknowthatvewontheFacultyFantasyBaseballLeague虚拟棒球联赛冠军twoyearsinarow.我知道既然虚拟球赛和统计学相关1do.And,sincefantasybaseballisbasedonstatistics,我想也许你能懂得赛伯计量学Ifiguredyou,dbeintosabermetrics.当然了这是选中优胜队的唯一的方法Oh,absolutely.Itstheonlywaytopickawinnin
18、gfantasyteam.学校里的超级计算机Howmuchofourschoolssupercomputertime什么时候开始isgivenovertothiscrunching统计棒球数据了？Ofbaseballstats?不告诉你llnevertell.这东西很厉害啊Thisstuffisprettywild.很好的转点识别Verycoolchangepointdetection.你能知道Doyourecognizetheperson是谁做出的公式吗？whomighthavedonethiswork?给我点时间Givemealittletime.如果这家伙对虚拟棒球Ifthisperso
19、nisactiveinfantasybaseball或者赛伯计量学在行的话orsabermetrics,我有线索直明他是谁llfindsomebodywhoknowswhoheis.太好了Good.他说过有人想利用他Hesaidpeoplewantedtousehim.Vick每次赢球都是倍受压力的Vicksbeenunderpressuretowinallhislife.每人都想分上一羹Theywereallafterapieceofhim-教练俱乐部主席球迷coaches,owners,fans.在球队里他有什么亲近的人吗？Washeparticularlyclosetoanyoneint
20、heorganization?没有教练和其他球员No.Coachesandtheotherplayers根本就不在乎他didntgiveadamnabouthim.只在乎他赢的球Onlywhathecoulddofortheteam.唯一真正关心他的人Theonlypersonthatreallycaredabouthim是他的经纪人RichardClastwashisagent,RichardClast.ViCk很信任他说他并不是Yeah,Vicktrustedhim.Saidhewasntlooking为了来发大财的foraquickbuck.他的目标很长远Hewasthinkinglon
21、g-term.Vick有什么打算吗？AndwhatwereVick,sprospects?这是他合同的最后一年Thiswasthelastyearonhiscontract.其他球队都不要他Nootherteamswereinterested因为他有肩伤inpickinghimupbecausehehurt并且膝盖做过两次手术hisshoulder,plusthetwokneesurgeries.他需要重整旗鼓Heneededtogethisgamebackup.他说现在挣的钱Hesaidthemoneyhemadenow够我们再用40年wouldneedtolastusthenext40ye
22、ars.有谁想伤害他吗？Wasthereanyonethatwouldhavewantedtohurthim?他有什么敌人吗？Didhehaveanyenemies?他死了谁都没好处Noonestoodtogainifhedied.Vick能比赛才有价值Vickwasonlyvaluableifhewasplayingball.你知道他从哪里得到的药？Doyouknowwherehegotthedrugs?Askhis队的教练们Askhiscoaches.对他们而言Tothem,他只是一部机器hewasjustapieceofequipment.我们没给他们类固醇Wedontgivethems
23、teroids,也不会告诉他们要服什么药andwedonttellthemwhatdrugstotake.但如果他们川药的话你就赚了Butiftheyuse,youbenefit他们都是成人自己做决定Thesearegrownmen.Theymaketheirownchoices.如果他们用药不被发现的话And,iftheydontgetcaught你就睁一只眼闭一只眼orbusted,youturnablindeye.除非是联盟要求Wedonttestplayers否则我们不会对球员药检unlesstheleaguesayswehavesomereasonto.我们也尽量不去凭空猜疑Othe
24、rwise,wetrynottogetintohypotheticals.显然从未有过Whichisnever.即便是以前坐了225场冷板凳Evenwhenaguywhousuallybenches225现在居然能上了350场的人issuddenlypushing350.球队在糟蹋VickTheteamscrewedVick.他让球队6连胜Hegivesthemsixgreatyears,他在比赛中肩膀受伤heplaysthroughaninjuredshoulder就因为让他滑行抢垒causetheyneedhimforastretchdrive,他差点成了残疾thenheendsupont
25、hedisabledlist.他这么拼命是想Iunderstandhewasworkingveryhard回到联盟球队吗？togetbackinthemajors?是的并且他能行的Yeah.Hewouldhavemadeit,too.很好谢谢Thesearegood.Thankyou.Vick是个很厉害的家伙Vickwastherealdeal.很了不起的人了不起的棒球队员Greatguy,andagreatbaseballplayer.你知道他在服用类固醇吗？Didyouknowhewastakingsteroids?他说那只是为了有更好的成绩(sighs)Hesaiditwasjustun
26、tilhecouldgethisnumbersbackup.谢谢Thankyou.很多球员不时会服药Mostplayersusenowandagain.任何时候dsay,atanygiventime,大约有25%25%ofthem.这关系到ViCk的下一个合同ThiswasaboutVicksnextcontract.这可至关重要Itwasnowornever.谢谢-大家都说Thankyou.Somewouldsay棒球会让你重生thatthereislifeafterbaseball.真的？ViCk有什么选择呢？Really?WhatwereVicksoptions?他高中时就开始打球了He
27、wasdraftedoutofhighschool.他没有其他的工作来养家糊口Itwasntlikehehadanothercareerhecouldfallbackon.幸运的话他可以当JC队的教练Hedbeluckytogetajobmaking赚到3万3年33KayearcoachingsomeJCteam.你见过他妻子觉得那一点钱她会留下来吗？Youmethiswife.Thinkshewasgoingtostickaroundforthat?嘿能等一会儿吗Hey,canyoujustgivemeonesecond?我马上就来llberightwithyou.好的Great.他的孩子怎
28、么样？Whatabouthiskids?他们很崇拜棒球英雄父亲Theyworshipedtheirbaseballherofather.你觉得他们会去崇拜卖♥♥♥车♥的人吗？Youthinktheyregoingtolookuptosomeusedcarsalesman?我不知道我觉得他妻子十分关心他Idontknow.Ithoughtthewifereallyseemedtocareabouthim.也许是我刻薄Well,Imightbecynical,但我见过很多妻子butveseenanawfullotofwives在丈夫没钱的时候
29、走人moveonafterthebaseballmoneydriesup.那么经纪人呢？Andtheagents?为客户服务是我的工作Itsmyjobtotakecareofmyclients,让他们打球并I赚钱tokeepthemplayingandmakingmoney只要他们行的话aslongastheycan.很显然我得重视他们的健康保持Obviously,Ihavetocareabouttheirhealthandwell-being.但是ViCk却不同ButwithVick,itwasdifferent.他是我的好朋友之一Hewasactuallyoneofmybestfriend
30、s.Waldie教授四处打听了一下ProfessorWaldiesentoutqueries,询问虚拟联赛玩家askingfantasyleagueplayers是否见过类似的东西iftheyveseensimilarwork并且发现r这个andthisiswhatwegotback.嗯从哪里找到的？Hmm.Wheredthiscomefrom?一个叫的网站AW.全是统计学的狂热者Itsforrealstatsfanatics.看看就知道这出自一人之手Well,justlookingatit,Imeanitsgottabethesameguy.这些缩写都是一样的Right?Theabbrevi
31、ationsareidentical.但这里他做了解释Onlyhere,heexplainswhattheystandfor.DB是击球距离EJ是轨道高度DB-DistanceBatted.EJ-ElevationofTrajectory.TB是挥棒TB-ThrownBats.挥棒？这家伙是谁？ThrownBats?Whoisthisguy?OswaldKittner他参加了6场OswaldKittner.Heplaysin16高赌注的虚拟联赛high-stakesfantasyleagues.Kittner好的我去告诉FBIKittner.Okay.mgonnagotelltheFBI.我现
32、在知道了缩写的意思NowthatIknowwhattheseabbreviationsmean,我也许可以发现这些方程Imaybeabletodetermine是否能揭示出投毒的原因whetherthismathreallydoesrevealdruguse.谢谢先生们So,thankyou,gentlemen.有人搜查Kittner的公♥寓♥SomeonegaveKittnersapartmentagoingover.我们没有找到电脑Wedidntfindthecomputer.他去了什么地方？或工作之类的？Well,hasheshownupanywhere?At
33、work?Anything?他没有工作25岁高中辍学Hesunemployed.Wegota25-year-old没有银行账号♥highschooldropoutwithnobankaccounts,没有车没有犯罪记录nocar,nocriminalrecord.看更邻居所有人都几天没有见到他了Super,neighbors,noonesseenhimforacoupleofdays.也许他涉嫌勒索如果不是的话Mightbeablackmailer,butifnot,他也和此事有关hisworksdefinitelyinvolvedsomehow.难以置信这个叫Kittner的人
34、Incredible.ThisKittnerperson彻底改造了Shiryayev-Roberts的转点识别方程hasbasicallyreinventedtheShiryayev-Roberts用来直明类固醇的使用changepointdetectionproceduretopinpointsteroiduse.并且不需要药检Andwithouttheneedformedicaltests.这真是个重要的衍生功能啊Imean,thiscouldhavemajorramifications.是的根本没有办法Yeah,right,causetheresnoway检查出ThoraCyCIene和
35、THGtotestfordrugslikeThoracycleneandTHG.一旦被身体吸收根本就查不出Oncethey*remetabolizedinthebody,theyreundetectable.是的这就是赛伯计量法的精妙Yeah,thewondersofsabermetrics.这的确是对棒球比赛的有力分&hearts淅♥Itreallyisapowerfulformofanalysisinbaseball.比赛的物理本质取决于几率Thephysicalnatureofthegameinvolveschance,击中或者漏击的距离sothedifferencebet
36、weenahitandanout可能是毫米甚至毫秒couldbemillimetersormilliseconds,如果比赛中有着So,whenyouhaveathleticsituationsinvolvingchance反复出现的几率repeatedoverandoveragain统计分♥析♥就可以astatisticalanalysis筛选并且揭示出动作的规律canisolateandrevealhumanperformance.好的Well,youknow,这不是第一次用数学itwouldntbethefirsttime来揭示运动的规律mathreveale
37、dasurprisingtruthaboutthissport.美国统计学家1993年的一篇文章Ina1993articleinTheAmericanStatistician,J.Bennett使用赛伯计量法).Bennett,usingsabermetrics,来分♥析♥ShOeleSSJoeJackson的表现analyzedShoelessJoeJacksonscareer.他分♥析♥得出HewasabletoprovethatJackson在1919年JacksonplayeduptohisfullpotentialBlackSo
38、x联赛每场比赛中ineveryoneofthe1919都发挥了极致BlackSoxseries.即便大家都说他不在乎联赛So,eventhoughhewasaccusedofthrowingthewholeseries,Jackson实际上是无辜的对吗？Jacksonwascompletelyinnocent,wasnthe?是的Thatsright.是数学在70年后Mathrestoredamansgoodname重振了一个人的声誉andreputationafter70years.我觉得这相当漂亮Ifindthatratherbeautiful.但是这并不排除他在作弊But,youknow
39、,thisdoesntcleartheplayer实际上恰好相反ofcheating;itratherdoesjusttheopposite.我知道为了测试其准确性Iknow,So,totestifitworks,我收集了那些服用了Igatheredstatsfromplayersgenerallybelieved类固醇的球员数据tohaveusedsteroids并且用Kittner的方程来分♥析♥andranthemthroughKittnersanalysis.呃Huh.你有什么发现？Whatdidyoufind?他的方程式Hiswork似平十分准确seems
40、tobequiteaccurate.20分钟前我还躺在沙发上20minutesago,Iwasonthecouch穿着睡衣看着BlazingSaddleswatchingBlazingSaddles最好有好消息inmypajamas.Thisbetterbegood.这可是大好消息Itsbetterthangood.是那件红色的牛仔女孩睡衣吗？Theredcowgirlpjs?嗯MEGAN:Mm-hmm.好的Okay.好的呃Okay,uh.Kittner的方程式很管用SoKittnersequationswork.它能够计算出球员Theyidentifywhen是否服用了违禁药品aplayer
41、isusingperfomance-enhancementdrugs.即便人们怀疑Johnston服药Allright,so,evenifpeoplethoughtJohnstonwasusing.他们不能够证实但现在有了Kittner方程Theycouldntproveit,andnowtheycanwithKittnersKittner自己都可以勒索他andKittnercouldprobablyevenbeblackmailinghim.没错Charles告诉我Thatsright,andwhenCharlestoldme这个叫Kittner的家伙thatthisKittnerperso
42、n已经消失了的时候haddroppedoutofsight,这让我想到消失了的人itgotmetothinking,displacedpeople会去某些地方willbedrawntoplaces而这些地方有其所需thatmeetessentialneeds.如果你累了你需要睡觉的地方Ifyouretired,youneedaplacetoliedown.如果你渴了你需要找喝水的地方Ifyourethirsty,youneedasourceofwater,如果你是玩虚拟棒球赛的话Andifyouplay那么你就需要能上网的地方fantasybaseball,youneedtheInternet
43、.需要注意的是1.ARRY:Andofspecialnotehere:明天是冬季虚拟赛的最后一天Tomorrowisthedeadlineforthewinterfantasydraft.Kittner必须得用他的电脑SoKittnerneedstopluginhislaptop.这是市区的地址吗？Yeah,whats.?Thatsadowntownaddress?是的是小东京Yeah,thatsLittleTokyo.那里有网吧Theyhavecybercafesinthearea.不幸的是1.ARRY:Well,fortunately,人类地形学要比humangeographyismuch
44、lessimmense宇宙地形学微小的多thanthatofthecosmos.知道这地方让我想起了什么吗？COLBY:Youknowwhatthisplacekindofremindsmeof?我猜猜银翼杀手1.etmeguess.Bladerunner.是的正是Yeah.Exactly.RidleyScott知道未来是什么样的HowdoyouthinkRidleyScottknows这你怎么想呢？whatthefutureisgonnalooklike?不知道Noidea,但是DarylHannah造出了很厉害勺机器人butDarylHannahmadeonekick-asscyborg.
45、是他吗？-OSWaIdKittner?Isthat.?OswaldKittner?FBI快过来FBI.Comehere.快过来Comehere!嘿Hey!快躲开Outoftheway.Dontmove!你去另一边包抄他-明白Goaroundandcuthimoffontheotherside.-Gotit.我的错对不起Mybad!Sorry!Sorry!站起来Up!嘿Hey.有必要这样吗？Wasthatreallynecessary?是的谁叫你跑的呢？Yeah,itiswhenyourun.把手放到后面Handsbehindyourback!嘿等等Hey,well,wait.你真的是FBI吗？AreyoureallyFBI?是的如假包换Yeah,forreal.冒昧的问一下Well,attheriskofmegettingbeatup,你凭什么逮捕我？uh,canIaskwhatyourearrestingmefor?就你而言Inyourcase逃跑就是犯罪skateboardingisacrime.在你把我关到关塔那摩之前Sobef
