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1、BLUEPAPERNovember19,20231000PMGMTGlobalBanks&AssetManagersIntotheGreatUnknownTwoforceswilldriveWholesaleBankstoadaptinthenextcycle:1)theendoflowerforlongerrates,and2)potentiallydivergingcapitalstandardsbetweentheUSandotherjurisdictions,benefittingnon-banksandbanksoutsidetheUS.Ourframeworkassessesthe
2、widerangeofpotentialoutcomes.OlivetWymansagloballeaderinmanagementconsultingFormoremformatQ,visitww.WyrnarOliverWymanisnotauthorizedoregulatedbythePRAQfIheFCAandisnotprovidinginvestmentadveeOlwerWymanauthorsatenotresearch8a1ystsandareneitherFOAnorFNRAregisteredOhverWymanauthorshaveOntycontributedthe
3、rexpertiseonbusinessstrategyMIhlnthereportOhVCrWymansviewsareclearlydelineatedThesecu11es11dvaluationsectionsofthisIBpOrlaretheWOrkofMorganStanleyonlyandnotOliverWymanFordisclcsuesspecificallypertainingtoOverWyman,pleaseseetheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendOfrhlSreportOhvefWymanisagloballeaderinman
4、agementconsultingRJrmorenfonmio,MSftVMWQHVefwymancomOliverWymamsnotautlwzedregulatedbythePRAortheFCAandisnotprovidingInVeSInWNadviceOliverWymanauthorsarenotresearchanalysisandareneitherFCAnorFINRAregistaed.OliverWymanauthorshaveonlycclbtted!heirexpanseonbusinessstrategy*vrthinthe刖口On5”:门Wymansviewsa
5、ecaryTheMCJMaSandalua!csectonsofthis?POrtareUwWCdQfMorganStanleyonlyandnotOlivrWymanFordisclosuresspecificallypeilqiningIoOhverWyman,pleaseseetheDisclosureSectionlocatedaftheendofthisreportMorganStanleydeesandseeks!odobusmesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearchAsaesuII.nvestrsshouldbeawathatt
6、hefirmmayIiaveHconflictofImefeSN府加dfcttheObjectivrtyofMorganStanleyResearchInvestorsshouldco11sietantyoverthefinalrulesthatwillbeimplementedandthemitigatingactionsthatbankscantakeWeestimatethatrisk-weightedassets(RWA)requiredtosupporttheexistingUSwholesalebankingindustrywouldrise35%undertheproposedn
7、ewUScapitalrules,whicharemoreconservativethanglobalstandardsbutsubjecttochangeCompetitionfrominternationalbanksandnon-banksisfierceand,intheunlikelyeventthattheproposedrulespassintheircurrentform,wecouldseeupto$40BN(73%)InrevenueexitUSbanksthroughvalueshiftsandcapacityreductions.Notallthenewsforbank
8、sisbad.StructurallyhigherinterestrateswilldrivestrongerrevenuesandreturnsforbankswithsizeableTransactionBankingandSecuritiesServicesbusinesses.Inourbasecase,weprojectthatthesebusinesseswillhavegrown39%and14%respectivelybetween2O2O2O25torepresent29%oftheindustryrevenuepoolin2025vs.24%in2020.IftheUSIm
9、plementsamorepunitivecapitalregimethanreguhtorsoutsidetheUS1itwouldcreateopportunitiesforbanksintherestoftheworldtocaptureshareintheirhomemarkets,buildscaleInwholesalebanking,andclosethereturnsgapwithUSleadersMoreimportantly,structuralshiftsIntheoperatingenvironmentmayprovidethecatalystforWholesaleB
10、ankstomakelong-debatedChangestobusinessmodels,creatingastepchangeIneconomicperformance.Weexpectbankstorepriceandadaptthebusinessmodelinresponsetoproposedchangestothecapitalrules.WeestimatethatbusinessmodeladaptationscouldreducethedragonReturnonEquity(RoE)forUSWholesaleBanksfrom6ptsto23pts,eveninanun
11、(ikely-butpotentialscenariowhereUScapitalrulesareimplementedasproposed.Inthemostlikelypotentialoutcome,theImpactwouldbelessthanthe55ptdragonRoEthewholesalebankingindustryepeecedafterthefirstwaveofnewcapitalrulesfollowingtheGFCOneofthekeylessonsfromthepostGFCstructuralreformperiodisbanksthatmovedearl
12、yandwithconvictionwerethebigwinnersinthedecadethatfollowed.Waitingonthesidelines,evenwithsignificantuncertaintyontheimpendingchanges,isastrategydestinedtofailWebelievethewinnerswill BuildresilienceIntotherevenuemodel-targetingnewareasofgrowthandstability Deepenanddefendtheclientfranchisetocapturethe
13、fullvalueofrelationships Adaptthebusinessmodeltopositionatthecenterofnewecosystemsanddeploylesscapital Pulltherightcostlevers-tailoredtothetargetbusinessmodelThecommentperiodfortheUSproposalstoimplementBasel3EndgameisopenuntilJanuary2024.Thereisstilluncertaintyoverwhethertheimplementationwillbestric
14、terintheUSthaninotherjurisdictions.ThefinalUSrulescouldberecalibratedinawaythatreducestheimpactonWholesaleBanks,theirclients,andthemarketstheyserveandphase-lntimelinescouldbeextendedbeyond2025.Wholesalebankingbusinessescanadapttothenewrulesinwhateverformtheytake,butthestartingpointandstrategicpathfo
15、rwardwillvarysignificantlyfrombanktobank.Strategicconvictionandexecutionwillmattermoreoverthenextfiveyearsthanithassincethefinancialcrisis.IWholesale助nnthisrelrelotheMartsSal&Trading),InvestmentBa*ng(Ee业y&U11crwll,CoTWaIE8TmsadronBanking,ahaifinancialns!o(MorganStanleyExecutiveSummaryCommentaryonsec
16、uritiesthroughoutthisreportsolelyreflectstheviewsofMorganStanleyResearch,notOliverWyman.Note:WholesaleBankingisinterchangeablewithCorporate8InvestmentBanking(CIB).OurdefinitionIncludesMarkets(Macro,Credit,Equities),InvestmentBanking,SecuritiesService,TransactionBanking,andLendingtoWholesaleBankingcl
17、ients.OurBluePaperfocusesontwostructuralshiftsintheoperatingenvironment.Arst,theendofessmonetarypolicyandfiscalstimulussuper-cyclewillexertpressureontheeconomicsoftheglobalbankingsystem,3phenomenonthatisalreadyunderway.However,giventhelightcapitalmarketsactivityin2023,weexpectamodestIncreaseinwholes
18、alebankindustryRoEsbetween2023and2025asareboundinIBDactivityandgrowthinTransactionBankingandSecuritiesServicesispartiallyoffsetbyasmallerFICCandEquitiestradingwallet.Second,anewlargebankcapitalregimeproposedbyUSregulators,commonlyreferredtoasBasel3EndgameorBaselIV,loomsaspotentiallythemostsignifican
19、tregulatoryoverhaulsincetheGlobalAnancialCrisis.ThecombinationandinteractionofthesetwoshiftscoulddrivemajorImplicationsforthefinancialsystemandcreditavailability.Ifthecapitalrulesarefinalizedascurrentlywritten,whicharemuchstricterthanglobalstandards,theycouldpressurebusinessmodelsandcatalyzeshareshiftsfromUSBankstoNon-USBanksandNon-B
