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1、McKiiisey&CompanyMcKinseyonGovernmentReinvestinginAmericaHelpinggovernmentsrenewthesourcesofeconomicstrengthanddeliverfortheirpeopleContentsZtIntroduction611217273949USgovernmentproductivity:Amorethan$2,000perresidentopportunityTransformingpublicsectorhiringwithdata-enabledtalentwinrooms/67Federalfi
2、nancialmanagement:HowgovernmentscandomorewiththebudgetstheyhavezDigonce,couldhelpstatesmanagematerialandworkershortages72Inclusiveinfrastructureinvestment:HowtoempowercommunitiesOneyearintotheBIL:CatalyzingUSinvestmentsinenergy91Buildinginnovationecosystems:AcceleratingtechhubgrowthPavingthewaytores
3、ilience:Strengtheningpublicsectoradaptationplanningandexecution111Ruralrising:EconomicdevelopmentstrategiesforAmericasheartlandClosingthedigitaldivideinBlackAmerica119WillalaborcrunchderailplanstoupgradeUSinfrastructure?CanpublicEVfast-chargingstationsbeprofitableintheUnitedStates?127Unlockingthepot
4、entialofgenerativeAl:ThreekeyquestionsforgovernmentagenciesIntroductionAdi KumarSenior PartnerLeader, Federal Civilian PracticeAdi_KumarMcKNehal MehtaAssociate PartnerColeader, Reinvesting in AmericaNehal_MehtaMcKTim WardSenior PartnerLeader, State and Local PracticeTim_WardMcKTodd WintnerPartnerCol
5、eader. Reinvesting in AmericaTodd_WintnerMcKAs2023endsandwelookaheadto2024,ourworldandourcountrycontinuetofaceabroadrangeofchallenges-includingclimatechange,economicuncertainty,andcontinuedgeopoliticaltensions.Inthefaceofthesechallenges,theUnitedStatesisinvestingtrillionsofdollarsinpublic-sectorcapi
6、talviatheBipartisanInfrastructureLaw,theInflationReductionAct,andtheCHIPSandScienceActtobolstereconomicsecurity,energysecurity,andnationalsecurity.Inaggregate,thesenewinvestmentsseektoacceleratetechnologyandtransformAmericasindustrialpolicyandbuiltenvironment.Ifimplementedeffectively,thesepoliciesma
7、yfundamentallyalterthepublic-andprivate-sectorlandscapeforthenextseveraldecades.Theyear2023wasoneofplanning.TheUSfederalgovernmentdraftedandissuedguidanceforarangeofnewprograms.Manystategovernmentsdesigned,launched,andscaledcentralcoordinatingfunctionschargedwithwinningcompetitivegrantsanddeployingf
8、ederalfunding(competitiveandnoncompetitive,newandenduring)asefficientlyandeffectivelyaspossible.Agencyleadershavedevelopednovelapproachestodeployinggreenfinancing,expandingbroadbandinfrastructure,acceleratingnewtechnology,andbuildinghydrogenhubstoensurethattheUnitedStatescankeeppacewiththedemandsofr
9、apidmodernizationacrossindustries.Webelieve2024willbeayearoftransitionfromplanningtoimplementation,withmoreshovelshittingthegroundeachdaytobuildthefutureAmericaneconomy.Tomakethishappen,leadersatthefederal,state,andlocallevelscanworkwithindustrycounterpartstoaddressabevyofsignificantbuttractablechal
10、lenges,suchascomplexserviceprocurementtimelines,materialandlaborsupplychainshortages,andpermittingrestrictions.Toinspireyoureffortsovertheweeksandmonthsahead,wedevelopedthiscompendiumcontainingsomeofthemostreadperspectivesfromMcKinsey,sReinvestinginAmericaInitiative.Wethankyouforthetimeandenergyyoua
11、reinvestinginourcountryatthiscriticalmomentandwishyouallthebestin2024andbeyond.December2023USgovernmentproductivity:Amorethan$2,000perresidentopportunityGovernmentremainsoneofthebiggestproductivityimprovementopportunities.Organizationsmustbegivenboththeabilityandmotivationtoimprove.byNikhilSahni,Vis
12、hnuMurale,DavidCutler,ShubhamSinghal,andAlanGerberThisarticleisthefirstinaseriesontheUSgovernmentsproductivityimprovementopportunity.AstheUSeconomyhasevolved,ithasshiftedfrompredominantlymanufacturingtoservices.Whilesomeoftheseservicesindustrieshavemadeproductivityimprovements,manylagbehindtheoveral
13、leconomy.Forexample,healthcareremainsagrowthenginefortheUSworkforcebutisoneoftheslowestintermsoflaborproductivitygrowth.1Governmentisalsolargelyaservicesindustryandoffersoneoftheeconomy,slargestproductivityimprovementopportunities. Nikhil Sahni, Pooja Kumar, Edward Levine, and Shubham Singhal, The p
14、roductivity imperative for healthcare delivery in the United States, McKinseyf February 27, 2019. Government productivity: Unlocking the $3,5 trillion opportunity, McKinsey Center for Government April 2017. Data from OECD on general government spending, accessed on June 26r 2023; data from Internati
15、onal Labour Organization on public employment by sectors of national accounts, accessed on June 26,2023.Fornearlyallcountries,governmentrepresentsthelargestportionoftheeconomyandisthebiggestemployer(Exhibit1).Forexample,intheUnitedStates,governmentatalllevelsaccountedforabout47percentofGDPandabout17
16、percentoftotalemploymentin2020?Furthermore,governmentplaysacriticalroleinsociety,rangingfrombuildingroadstoeducatingyouth.Inmanycases,whenthegovernmentintervenes,itisnecessarybecausethereisnofunctioningcompetitiveprivatecounterpart.Moreover,theimperativetocapturethegovernmentproductivityimprovemento
17、pportunityhasintensified.TheCOVID-19pandemicputpressureoneconomiesaroundtheworld,promptinggovernmentstospendlargeamountsofmoneytodistributeCOVID-19relief.AsCOVID-19movestoanendemicphase,newmacroeconomicissueshaveemerged,mostnotablyatalentshortage,inflation,andhighdebt-servicingcosts.,Addie Fleron an
18、d Shubham Singhalf *The gathering storm in US healthcare: How leaders can respond and thrive/ McKinsey, September 8r 2022.Forexample,in2022,theUSfederalgovernmentspentthelargestamounteverondebtinterest,reachingnearly2percentofGDP.*What are interest costs on national debt/ Peter G. Peterson Foundatio
19、n, May 30, 2023.Havingtogetbywithbothasmallerworkforceandweakergovernmentbalancesheetssuggestthattheneedforproductivityimprovementshasincreased.Inthisarticle,wesetouttoestimatethesizeoftheUSgovernmentsproductivityimprovementopportunity.Wedefinedproductivityasoperationalefficiency;otherresearchershav
20、efocusedonpolicyeffectiveness(seesidebarrtWhyhasitbeendifficulttomeasuregovernmentproductivity?).WequantifiedtheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunitybylevel-federalaswellasstateandlocalandcategory,suchashealthcareorroadtransport.Overall,wefounda$725billionto$765billionproductivityimprovemen
21、topportunitythatis,roughly$750billionannuallythatcouldbesavedwhilekeepinggovernmentservicesoperatingjustaseffectively.Thiswouldbeequivalenttomorethan$2,000perresident.About60percentofthetotalwasatthestateandlocallevel.Acrosscategories,about40percentoftheopportunitywasinhealthcare;9percentwasinprimar
22、yandsecondaryeducation.Wealsoconvertedthisopportunityintoanoperationalframeworkthatcouldaidgovernmentorganizationsindeterminingwhatactionstotake.Basedonourexperiencewithhundredsofpublic-andprivate-sectororganizations,theframeworksuggeststhatoperationalchallengeslieinanorganizationsabilityandmotivati
23、ontoimprove.Werecognizeandacknowledgethatavarietyofciviccompactsshapehowgovernmentssetpriorities,andthusgovernmentshavefundamentallydifferentimperativesthanthoseoftheprivateandsocialsectors.Governmentorganizationsmaymakeproductivitytrade-offsinserviceofthoseinstitutionalimperatives.Inthisreport,prod
24、uctivityisthefocus,butitisjustonewayofevaluatinggovernmentactivity.Exhibit1Inmanycountries,governmentspendingandemploymentmakeupasizableportionofGDPandtotalemployment,respectively.Breakdownofgovernmentspendingandemploymentbycountry,2020FranceGreeceBelgiumFinlandItalyDenmarkCanadaUKSwedenSpainIceland
25、SloveniaHungaryGermanyPortugalPolandNetherlandsGovernmentspending,%ofGDP52.452.152.051.251.251.150.449.248.347.8Percapitagovernmentspending,currentPPP,1$51529,41516,96232,12729,90724,50632,57725z08724,03729,23219,73927,79020,90617,451Governmentemployment,%oftotalemployment215I蛀24.115.529.029.219.425
26、.028,47317,21216,83828,613.17.1I17.1Totalgovernmentemployment,thousandsS,8097669046353,3528441,3805,3431,4613,1571789024,6587191,6491,14647.330,03322,633lPurchasing-powerpamy.Source:InterrutionalUbourOrganization;OECDMcKmsey&CompanyWhyhasitbeendifficulttomeasuregovernmentproductivity?Thetermproducti
27、vityisusedinmanycontextswithdifferentintentions.Forexample,leaderswanttotalktoeachotheraboutproductivitybutmayuseconflictingdefinitionswhentheydoso,leadingtodisagreements.Forthisarticle,weemployedadefinitionofproductivitythateconomistscommonlyusetoconductindustry-levelanalyses.1Thisfocusesonminimizi
28、ngtheinputsrequiredtoproduceasetofoutputs(exhibit).Tounderstandwhyithasbeendifficulttomeasureproductivityingovernment,itishelpfultofirstlookathowproductivityismeasuredintheprivatesector.Withrespecttotheequationintheexhibit,inindustriessuchasmanufacturing,inputandoutputpricesandvolumeproducedarequant
29、ifiable.Inputsrepresentthecostofgoods,sales,generaladministrativeexpenses,andothersuchoperatingcostsforgoodsorservicesproduced.Outputsareestimatedbythepriceaconsumeriswillingtopay,whichaccountsforthequalityofthegoodorservice,multipliedbythevolume.Tomeasureproductivity,itiscriticaltobeabletoseparatep
30、riceandvolume.Whengovernmentisinvolved,inputsandoutputsaremuchhardertomeasure.Researchershavetriedtoovercomethisprobleminafewways.Oneapproachhasbeentoconductinternationalcomparisonsbetweengovernments;thisoffersinsightintotheproductivityimprovementopportunityatthenationallevel. Robert M. Solowr *Tech
31、nical change and the aggregate production function/ The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1957r Volume 39, Number 3. Edwin Lauz Zsuzsanna Lontiz and Rebecca Schultz. *Challenges in the measurement of public sector productivity in OECD 180 countries/ International Productivity Monitor, Centr
32、e for the Study of Living Standards, 2017, Volume 32. 4lPubIic-Sector productivity (part 1): Why is it important and how can we measure it?/, World Bank Group, February 2021.Forexample,healthcarespendingcouldbecomparedacrosscountries,suchastheUnitedStatesandCanada.Butthesecomparisonsmaybemisleadingb
33、ecausetheydonoteasilytakeintoaccountdifferencesinhowgovernmentdeliversthesegoodsorservices,andtheresultingneedformoreorlessspending.Continuingwiththeexample,thelargelypublic,singlepayerhealthcaresysteminCanadamaynotneedasmuchmoneyasthemarketbasedmodelsintheUnitedStates.Thisapproachalsotendstoexclude
34、state-orlocal-levelcomparisons.Anotherapproachhasbeentodivedeeplyintoasetofgovernmentorganizationsanddevelopspecificmetrics.Forexample,toexaminetheefficiencyofpublic-healthinitiatives,someeffortshavetrackedmicroleveloperationalmetrics,suchashousevisitsbyindividualhealthcareworkers?Thesecanbehelpfult
35、otheextentthatthemetricsareoperationallyfocused.Thechallengewiththisapproachisthatitishardtoaggregateuptothetotalopportunityacrossthegovernment.Inourview,thesetwoapproachesaredirectionallycorrectbutareeachincomplete.Neitherprovidesacomprehensiveroadmapforthegovernmenttomeasureproductivityimprovement
36、opportunitiesacrossthefullrangeoffunctionsitprovides.Further,whenestimatingproductivityforgovernment,itisimportanttoseparateefficiencyfromeffectiveness.Productivityasdefinedinthisarticleisrelatedtothecreationofgoodsandservices;thisisefficiencyofproduction.Thegovernmentalsosetspolicy,theassessmentofw
37、hichconcernsquestionsofeffectiveness.Whileefficiencyistiedtospecific,measurableunits(thatis,detailedoutputsandinputs),questionsofeffectivenessfocusonhowoutputstranslateintodesiredpolicyoutcomes,suchasshiftsinwealthamongpopulationgroups.Effectivenessisoutsidethescopeofthisarticle.ExhibitProductivityT
38、otal value of outputsTotal value of inputsOutput volume X output pricesInput volume input pricesMcKinsey&CompanyTheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityToestimatetheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunity,weusedapreviouslyPublishedapproachbytheMcKinseyGIobaIInstituteandadaptedittocon
39、ductacountry-specificanalysis.6Thisapproachaccountsforbothcostandqualityandisappliedtothefederallevelandthestateandlocallevel.Wecenteredouranalysisonfivecoregovernmentspendingcategoriesinwhichcostandqualitydatawerereadilyavailable:healthcare,roadtransport,primaryandsecondaryeducation,highereducation
40、,andpublicsafety.Wethenusedtheseestimatestoscaleacrosstheremainingcategoriesofgovernmentspending.Webasedouranalysison2020governmentspendingdata.Thatyear,afteraccountingforintergovernmentaltransfers,governmentsintheUnitedStatesspent$9.9trillion,ofwhichapproximately58percentwasatthefederallevelandther
41、emaining42percentwasatthestateandlocallevel(Exhibit2)JOfthis0.04 0.04 0.050.11Exhibit2Forouranalysis,weconsideredabout58percent,or$5.8trillion,oftotalUSgovernmentspendingin2020.TotalspendingacrosstheUSStateandlocal=4.23Federal=5.72government,2020,$trillion Healthcare PrimaryandsecondaryeducationRoad
42、transport Publicsafety Highereducation Other(addressable)1 Other(notaddressable)Note：Figuresmaynotsum,becauseofrounding.NumbersadjustedforintergovernmentaltransferstoreflectwheretheworkIsdone.lForstateandlocalspending,Othercategoriesanalyzedincludecommunityandregionaldevelopment,internationalaffairs
43、,generalgovernment,andnationaldefense.Forfederalspending,othercategoriesana(zedincludeairtransportation,financialadministration,fireprotectionjudicialandlegal,generalgovernmentexpenditure,generalpublicbuildings,libraries,othereducation,othergovernmentaladministration,parksandrecreation,protectiveins
44、pectionandregulation,sewerage,solid-wastemanagement,andutilityexpenditure.Spendingthatwasunspecifiedorcouldnotbefurtheroptimizedintermsofoperationswasconsiderednotaddressable.Source:OfficeofMarugementandBudget;USCensusBureauMcKinsey&Gxnpany Government productivity. April 2017. The intergovernmental
45、transfers establish where the work is done versus where the work is funded. For example, Medicaid dollars are accounted for at the state and local level, though the funding is from the federal level. Due to data limitations, state and local spending could not be split.total,about42percentwaseitherun
46、specifiedorcouldnotbefurtheroptimizedintermsofoperations,suchaspayinginterestondebtorSocialSecuritypayments.Thistypeofspendingwasexcludedbecauseitisnotrelatedtoefficiencyofproductionbutismorecommonlyrelatedtopolicyeffectiveness,whichwasnotinthescopeofthisarticle.Asaresult,ouranalysisfocusedon$2.3tri
47、llionofgovernmentspendingatthefederalleveland$3.5trillionatthestateandlocallevel.WethenestimatedthattheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityis$725billionto$765billion,adjustingforwagedifferencesacrossstates(seesidebar“HowwemeasuredtheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityw).About60percentofthetotalwasatthestateandlocallevel,withnearlyathirdoftheopportunityinhealthcareandabout15percentinprimaryandsecondaryeducation.Oftheremaining40percentatthefederallevel$285billionto$295billionabout50percento
