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1、Robert Fogels forecasting Chinese economy in 2040发展经济学 development economics讲课人：李实本课程的结构1 发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变11 研究范畴12 发展的测度13 研究方法14 历史演变2 发展与增长理论21 增长与发展的差异22 增长理论： Harrod-Dmar model; Solow model; convergence: unconditional and conditional. 23 新增长理论24 人口增长与经济发展25 经济发展与人类发展3 发展与收入分配31 收入分配的现实与理论32 收入
2、决定机制与因素分析33 经济发展与收入差距34 经济增长与收入分配35 中国收入分配的变化趋势4 发展中国家中的贫困问题41 绝对贫困与相对贫困42 贫困线的设定43 贫困标准的选择：收入还是消费44 贫困的度量：贫困发生率、贫困距和加权贫困距45 中国的贫困状态5 发展中国家的劳动力市场与人力资本51 劳动剩余与两部门模型52 劳动力市场中工资决定机制53 劳动力市场中歧视问题54 中国农民工的工资与歧视状态的研究55 劳动力流动与城乡差距56 教育、健康与经济发展6 土地与经济发展61 土地产权与租赁制度62 土地租赁合同理论63 土地产权制度理论7 资本市场与经济发展71 信贷市场的不完
3、善性72 农村信贷市场的功能与发展73 非正规信贷市场74 资本市场的制度与信贷市场的发展8 保险与发展81 保险的功能82 完善的保险模型83 保险的局限性：信息的不对称性84 保险的执行困难9 国际贸易与经济发展91 国际贸易的基本理论92 比较优势理论93 世界贸易格局94 贸易政策和发展战略10 制度与经济发展101 新制度经济学对经济发展的启示102 政府与市场的作用103 经济改革与经济发展11 发展经济学的未来方向111 理论还是经验研究？112 中国经济发展的经验如何上升到一般的经济发展理论1 发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变1.1 研究对象（DE是什么）What is ec
4、onomic development? (1) Economic development is the development of economic wealth of countries or regions for the well-being of their inhabitants.(2) The process whereby the real per capita income of a country increases over a long period of time, subject to the stipulations that the number of peop
5、le below an absolute poverty line does not increase and that the distribution of income does not become more unequal. (3) Economic development is a means to make mass people out of poverty. What development economics studies? DE studies the economic structure and behavior of the poor (less developed
6、) countries (Lewis, 1984). Development Economics (DE) studies the economic transformation of developing countries (Debraj Ray, 1998). The major task of DE is to explore the possibilities of emancipation from poverty for developing economies (Yujiro Hayami, 2001). DE is about the big issues: how econ
7、omies and societies grow and change (N. Stern, 2001). Backward underdevelopment less developed countries poor countries emergent countries developing economies. 1.2 研究内容（研究什么）(1) 理解现在世界各国发展的不平衡性。(2) 理解发展中国家现在的问题需要理解发达国家的发展经验，具有比较的意义。(3) 对前人的发展理论要加以研究。(4) 发展涉及到很多层面， 1.3 发展的测度（measurement of developme
8、nt）GDP or GDP per capita 是否是衡量发展程度的最好指标？ 它在国际比较中的缺陷: 发展中国家GDP低估的问题； PPP方法来修正GDP； 人类发展指数（HDI）的意义和应用。China rank of HDI in the world, 1970-20101.4 研究方法(1) 理论研究与经验研究（theoretical and empirical approach） (2) 发展微观经济学与发展宏观经济学（development microeconomics and development macroeconomics）(3) 纯粹的经济分析还是多学科研究1.5 历史
9、演变(1) 古典经济学是当时的发展经济学(2) 在20世纪40年代后期，现代发展经济学形成。Capital accumulation, as the necessary requirement, was the central focus of the models. The Harrod-Domar equation, although originally formulated for conditions of full growth in an industrial economy, was applied to estimate capital requirements in dev
10、eloping countries. Other early models of development strategy also featured capitalaccumulation: Rostows stages of growth, 1. Traditional society 2. Preconditions for take-off 3. Take-off 4. Drive to maturity 5. Age of High mass consumption Nurkses balanced growth, The theory hypotheses that the gov
11、ernment of any underdeveloped country needs to make large investments in a number of industries simultaneously. This would consequently enlarge the market size and provide an incentive for the private sector to invest.Rosenstein-Rodans external economies and big push,This theory is an investment the
12、ory which stresses the conditions of take-off. The argumentation is quite similar to the balanced growth theory but emphasis is put on the need for a big push. The investments should be of a relatively high minimum in order to reap the benefits of external economies. Only investments in big complexe
13、s will result in social benefits exceeding social costs. High priority is given to infrastruc-tural development and industry, and this emphasis will lead to governmental development planning and influence.Lewiss unlimited supply of labor and dual-sector modelThe process of economic growth is inextri
14、cably linked to the growth of capitalist surplus, that is as long as the the capitalist surplus increases, the national income also increases raising the growth of the economy. The increase in capitalist surplus is linked to the use of more and more labor which is assumed to be in surplus in case of
15、 this model. This process of capital accumulation does come to an end at some point. This point is where capital accumulation catches up with population so that there is no longer any surplus labor left.Prebisch-Myrdal-Singer hypotheses about terms of trade and import substitutionThe thesis postulat
16、es that terms of trade, between primary products and manufactured goods, deteriorate in time. Countries that export commodities (developing countries) in time would import fewer manufactured goods relative to a given level of exports.Leibensteins critical minimum effort thesis,Critical minimum effor
17、t theory is one of the balanced growth theories. It talks about how a minimum amount of push is required by an economy for it to be set on the path of development. This push can be in the form of investments. The minimum amount of effort that is required is critical for the economy to move towards d
18、evelopment hence this theory is called critical minimum effort. Because of the high population in underdeveloped countries the capital accumulation and labour supply are not sufficient to increase the per capita income.Chenerys two-gap model.Two-gap model (Two-gap Model), is the developing countries
19、 to achieve the savings gap and foreign exchange gaps in the theory of the equilibrium model. The model is through the use of external resources in developing countries, to play the role of government in the same time, adjustment of domestic economic structure to adapt to the introduction of externa
20、l resources. It reflects the introduction of external resources in developing countries, for easing the scarcity of domestic resources is important. Two-gap model of the basic equation: I-S = M-X I-S is the difference between investment and savings, known as the savings gap M-X is the difference bet
21、ween imports and exports, known as the foreign exchange gap adjusted for the purpose of each variable is to balance the equation.A. Hirschman, Strategy of Economic Development (1958). Unbalanced growthContrary to the theory of balanced growth, in Hirschmans opinion, the real bottleneck is not the sh
22、ortage of capital, but lack of entrepreneurial abilities. Potential entrepreneurs are hindered in their decision-making by institutional factors: either group considerations play a -great role and hinder the potential entrepreneur, or entrepreneurs aim at personal gains at the cost of others and are
23、 thus equally detrimental to development. In view of the lack of enterpreneurial abilities there is a need for a mechanism of incentive and pressure which will automatically result in the required decisions. According to Hirschman, not a balanced growth should be aimed at, but rather existing imbala
24、nces whose symptoms are profit and lossesmust be maintained. Investments should not be spread evenly but concentrated in such projects in which they cause additional investments because of their backward and forward linkages without being too demanding on entrepreneurial abilities. Manufacturing ind
25、ustries and import substitutions are relevant examples. These first investments initiate further investments which are made by less qualified entrepreneurs. Thus, the strategy overcomes the bottleneck of entrepreneurial ability. The theory gives no hints as to how the attitude of entrepreneurs and t
26、heir institutional influence will be changed in time.P. Rosenstein-Roden, Problems of Industrialization of Eastern and Southeastern Europe,” Economic Journal (June-September, 1943). H. Leibenstein, Economic backwardness and economic growth (1957). R. Nelson, “ A theory of the low-level equilibrium t
27、rap in underdeveloped economies,” AER (Dec. 1956). W. Rostow, The stages of economic growth (1960). R. Nurkse, Problems of capital formation in underdeveloped countries (1953). Structuralist analysis: rigidities, lags, shortage and surpluses, low elasticities of supply and demand. G. Myrdal. Economi
28、c theory and underdeveloped regions(1957). R. Prebisch, “The economic development of Latin America and Its principal problems”, Economic Bulletin for Latin America 7 (1950). H. Singer, “ Gains and losses from trade and investment in underdeveloped countries,” AER (may 1950). (3) 在20世纪60年代后期至70年代初期，发
29、展经济学更加注重贫困和收入分配。增长的不平衡性，注重农村发展；人力资本的形成，对人力资源的研究；适用技术，而是最新技术的引进。Furthermore, in the 1960s the initial concentration on physical capital accumulation was giving way to the concept of investment in humancapital and its implications for development. It was increasinglyrecognized that development depende
30、d on productive human agentswho, through their acquisition of knowledge, better health and nutrition,and increase in skills, could raise total factor productivity.（4）70年代至80年代，新古典经济学的重新崛起：对政策导致的市场扭曲的批评，对非市场失灵的批评，对政府控制的批评，from “get prices right” to “get policies right”, 市场、价格、激励成为主题。内向型发展战略转向外向型（出口导向
31、性）战略，价格稳定和控制通货膨胀成为首选目标，大力推进国有企业的私有化。注意到发展中国家之间的差异性，总体增长模型被国别的微观化模型所取代，国别的研究和经验研究受到越来越多的重视，新古典经济学的基本原理被应用到发展中国家的政策研究。老发展经济学家是不承认新古典经济学可以用于发展中国家，而新发展经济学家不仅认为新古典经济学可以用于发展中国家，而且认为发展经济学不能成为一个专门的学科。If the first generation of development economists was visionary anddedicated to grand theories and general s
32、trategies, the second generationwas almost moralistic, dedicated to a somber realism grounded onfundamental principles of neoclassical economics. Harberger could sayto the governments of developing countries, Economics is good foryou-and by economics, he meant neoclassical analysis as the basisfor p
33、olicymaking (Harberger 1993).Once it is recognized that individuals respond to incentives, andthat market failure is the result of inappropriate incentives ratherthan of nonresponsiveness, the separateness of development economicsas a field largely disappears. Instead, it becomes an appliedfield, in
34、 which the tools and insights of labor economics, agriculturaleconomics, international economics, public finance and otherfields are addressed to the special questions and policy issues thatarise in the context of development. (Krueger 1986: 62 f)9(1) In accordance with neoclassical economic theory,
35、 the second generationmoved from highly aggregative models to disaggregatedmicrostudies in which the units of analysis were production units andhouseholds. (2) For offering policy advice, grand theories came to beviewed as less useful than highly specific applications. Microstudies,rather than the b
36、roader visionary models of the earlier period, couldprovide more direct policy implications for specific policies such as achange in tariffs or agricultural subsidies. (3) There was a marked change from a focus on the process of development to an emphasis on particular features of underdevelopment.
37、(4) Quantitative analytical tools were used more extensively, especially for empirical analysis of microphenomena that were country specific, sector specific, or projectspecific. The greater availability of microdata sets allowed the modelingof household behavior and of human capital investments in
38、educationand health.(5) The second generation, which was able to reflect on two or three decadesof development experience, recognized the increasing heterogeneity ofdeveloping countries and gave more attention to an explanation of differentialrates of country performance. Cross-country econometric s
39、tudiesof the determinants of economic growth multiplied. A comparativeapproach was adopted in an attempt to understand why certain policieswere effective in a given country while others were not, and whythe same type of policy was effective in one country but not in another.For example: In earlier c
40、oncepts of the aggregate production function, the residualwas thought of as a coefficient of technical advance. The second generation,however, looked at the growth process in a more microeconomicfashion. The residual was recognized to be a composite of the effectsof many different forces: (i) improv
41、ements in the quality of labor througheducation, experience and on-the-job training; (ii) reallocation of resourcesfrom low-productivity to higher-productivity uses, either throughnormal market forces, or through the reduction of barriers or distortions;(iii) exploitation of economies of scale; (iv)
42、 improved ways ofcombining resources to produce goods and services, not just at the levelof new machines or processes, but also by relatively adjustmentsat the level of the factory or the farm28Figure 1. Evolution of development thoughtGoals of development GDP GDP per capita HDI Mitigation of povert
43、y Entitlements and capabilities Freedom Sustainable D Growth theoryHarrod-Domar model Solow sources of growth New growth theoryCapital accumulationPhysical capital H. C. Knowledge C Social C.State and marketMarket failures Nonmarket failures New market failures Institutional failuresGovernment inter
44、ventions Programming and planning minimalist government complementarity of government and marketPolicy reformPoor because poor poor because poor polices (get prices right) get policies right get institutions right2. 发展与增长理论2.1 增长与发展的差异(1) “Development is taken to mean growth plus change.” “Improveme
45、nt of the factors of production, improved technology of production; the development of institutions and a change in attitudes and values”. (2) “ Upward movement of the entire social system”Gunnar Myrdal. (3) “A rise in productivity, social and economic equalization, modern knowledge, improved instit
46、utions and attitudes and rationally coordinated system of policy measures.” - C. E. Black.(4) Growth, equality and valuation of output. 2.2 Differences in economic level and growth across countries Countrys GNP per capita in 2010表1-1：2000-2005年世界经济和地区经济年增长率及其与中国比较世界平均2.8低收入国家6.0中等收入国家5.1其中：低中等收入国家6.0高中等收入国家5.1中、低收入国家5.3高收入国家2.2东亚与环太平洋国家8.3其中：中国9.6欧洲与中亚国家5.4拉美和加勒比海国家2.3中东与北非国家4.1南亚国家6.4非洲撒哈拉地区4.2资料来源：World development report 2007 : development and the next generation. World Bank, 2007.2.3 增长理论： （1） Harrod-Domar model (1-1) basic formulas Y（t） = C(t) + S(t) 2-1Y（t） = C(t) + I(t) 2-2S（t） = I(t)
