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1、,Structured Problem Solving&Hypothesis Generation,Sept.2009-Confidential-,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,What We Will Cover,Lay out a systematic approach to solving business problemsUnderstand why developing hypotheses helps us focus our interventions and how we generate hypot
2、hesesUnderstand the steps within Root Cause Analysis,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,There are two basic approaches to problem solving;but both can work,The“theres a pony in here somewhere”approach,The structured analytic approach,Potentialfor richpowerfulsolutions,Scurry aroun
3、d analyzing tons of data to see if you can find something useful,Get the data,Potential forgood(and mixed)solutions,Defineproblemandhypotheses,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,What is Structured Problem Solving?,A formal approach to organising peoples thinkingDefine the ProblemU
4、nderstand the problem statementFacilitate understanding of the issue2.Develop a HypothesisUsed to prove(or disprove)our logicWhich if“true”we can use to solve the underlying cause3.Structure the AnalysisUse a logical framework to analyse the problemUse the Root Cause Analysis to group your ideas,To
5、help you solve a problem,your structure must disaggregate the problem into smaller and easier to solve components.,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Our problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questions,Is there a problem or opportunity?If s
6、o where does it lie?Why does it exist?What could we do about it?What should we do about it?,Fine,but I wish I knew how to do this.,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Defining the issue is the 1st step in the journey to final recommendations,Develop Conclusions and Make Recommendat
7、ions to Implement,Find Insights,Analyse Data,Gather Data,Form Hypotheses,So what?-aha,new thought,What you should do and how,Define the Issues,What are the questions keeping you awake at night?,Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypotheses,Analyse what the data tells us,Statements tha
8、t provide direction and structure for the analysis,Because“If you dont know where you are going,any road will take you there.”Anonymous,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,How do we define a problem?,Start your thinking by being.,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserve
9、d,Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive,The most important rule for any structure you develop,No overlapping or repeated ideas(only one home for each idea)No gaps or missing information(every idea has a home),If your ideas arent MECE they will be CRAP“Completely Redundant and Absolutely
10、Pointless”,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,How do we interpret MECE?,Human,Man,Women,Married Man,Single Man,Married Women,Single Women,Clarity of the problem up front will set your subsequent analysis up to succeed!-,Example,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved
11、,In structuring a problem,break it into smaller,easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitions,园区优惠政策,Exercise,Level 1,Level 2,个人购房补助,企业营业税优惠,企业增值税优惠,自主创新费用和奖励,就业人口奖励,办公用房购置补贴,出口奖励,企业所得税优惠,个人所得税优惠,安家绿色通道,土地优惠,。,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,In structuring a
12、problem,break it into smaller,easier-to-handle components AND start with the right definitions,园区优惠政策,Example:园区政策,Level 1,Level 2,人才政策,企业政策,企业财税优惠政策,企业非财税优惠政策,人才实物政策,人才非实物政策,Hint:有时候可以考虑使用“其他”-,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Hypothesis generation ensures that we get to the Ro
13、ot Cause of our clients problem,Form Hypotheses,Define the Issues,Gather Data,Analyse Data,Find Insights,Develop Conclusions and Make Recommendations to Implement,So what?aha,new thought,What you should do and how,What are the questions keeping you awake at night?,Factual information gathered to pro
14、ve or disprove hypotheses,Analyse what the data tells us,Statements that provide direction and structure for the analysis,“Hypothesis:a Tentative Assumption made in order to draw out and test its logical or empirical consequences”Websters Dictionary,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreser
15、ved,Hypotheses are developed in 3 steps,What are the real strategic issues?What is the impact on the organisation?What are the priorities?,We think.It looks like.The right answer may be.The options could be.,We believe this to be true.A series of statements,not yet backed by dataBased on initial dat
16、a search or expert opinions,A number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid,Is there a market for white label insurance products?,Direct channels are growingRetailers have a strong channel and brandThere are existing products,Chubb Insurance can access new business by using the b
17、rand strength of Tesco resulting In low cost acquisitions and profitable business,Define the question,Review and Describe Multiple Assertions,Form the hypothesis,1,2,3,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,A hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the imp
18、act,Think through these 3 stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it:,“X is xxx”or“X is an opportunity”,What is the issue?What is the underlying opportunity?Where is the advantage?,What do you think causes the issue?What are the key drivers of the process?,What is th
19、e impact of the issue?How can we tell there is an opportunity?Why do we care?,“due to”,“resulting in”,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Explicitly ties your analysis to your problem definition,Why hypotheses matter,They keep your effort,Helps define the level of accuracy that mat
20、ters,Ensures you analyze no more than is needed to disprove hypotheses within a reasonable doubt,Allows quick check before massive data collection and crunching:“If we confirm our belief in the hypothesis,will we be able to act on it?”,Keeps you efficient,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PP
21、Treserved,How to find a good hypothesis,Think outside the Box:,Start by Asking Questions:,Talk to lots of people about the core problemBrainstorming during case team meetingAsk“5 Whys”,Validate your initial Hypothesis:,Assume perfect rationality how should the business system behave?Look for analogi
22、es(other industries or problems)Imagine that you had perfect information what would the ideal analysis look like?,Think about the problem from a different angleTalk to people who think differently,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,What if your hypothesis is proven wrong?,You Win!
23、Hypothesis-driven thinking requires frequent reviews of the prevailing and current hypotheses:,“A wise man sometimes changes his mind,but a fool never”-Arabic Proverb,If proven wrong youve already made a big step towards answering your question!,Do we still think they are right?,Are we making progre
24、ss towards disproving them?,Are they at the right level of generality/predictiveness?,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,What is Root Cause Analysis?,Tool used to identify,record and visually represent the possible causes of a problem,Digs down to the real problem-the root cause,B
25、reaks down-what can appear to be an impossible issue-into smaller,more easily,handled chunks,This view focuses on the Fishbone technique,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Overview of Fishbone Technique,Step 1,Step 2,Step 3,Step 4,Step 5,Step 6,Step7,Problem/Effect,Cause 1,Cause 2
26、,Cause 3,Cause 4,Cause 5,Cause 6,Sub-cause 1,Sub-cause 2,Sub-cause 1,Sub-cause 2,Identify Major Root Causes,Identify the Problem,Brainstorm Sub-Root Causes,Gather Data,Identify Most Likely Causes,Choose Most Likely Cause,Select and Test the Best Solution,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPT
27、reserved,We use a real estates problem as an example,施工环节,招标环节,设计环节-设计优化,设计环节-设计空白/遗漏,设计环节-设计冲突/不当,预期外设计变更较多,不可预见工作量,施工难点,招标漏项,清单漏项,需二次/深化设计,界面划分不清,提升价值,降低造价,纯粹设计不当,专业间不吻合,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Step 1:Identify the problem,Clearly define the problem,or effect that is v
28、isible,on the right hand side of the fishbone diagram and draw an arrow to it,Write Problem Down on Right Hand Side,Step 1a,Draw an arrow to it,Step 1b,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Step 2:Categorise major causes,Consider major themes under which possible causes could be grou
29、ped:Do not exceed six major themesAdd the themes to the main diagram,as shown below,Problem/Effect,Theme 1,Theme 2,Theme 3,Theme 4,Theme 5,Theme 6,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Step 3:Brainstorm,In the team:Brainstorm a list of sub-causes(follow the rules of brainstorming)Add
30、 the sub-causes to the fishbone diagram,using post-it notes,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Step 3:Brainstorming(Cont.),As individuals:Identify five additional possible causes(no duplication of previous brainstorming sessionWrite these causes on post-it notes and add to the dia
31、gram(combine any duplicate ideas on one post-it note)As a group:Agree when to meet next and take a break,Problem/Effect,Theme 1,Theme 1,Theme 3,Theme 4,Theme 5,Theme 6,Sub-cause 1,Sub-cause 2,Sub-cause 3,Sub-cause 4,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Step 4:Gather data,Gather as m
32、uch data as possible about identified causes:Control chartsGraphsTrendlinesKPIsetc.Data can be used to identify for certain the most probable causes,and/or it can be used alongside all the other data/information the team has gathered,Break in the session can allow time for consideration as well as t
33、o gather the data,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Step 5:Identify most likely causes,In the team:Analyse the data and information gatheredThrough open discussion,clarify and identify most likely causesChallenge each others ideas as necessaryRank most probable root causes throug
34、h voting(each person ranks each probable cause on a 1-5 basis,where 1 is lowest,and 5,highest probability)See left-hand graphic.Circle the top vote-getters on the fishbone diagram as probable root causes See right-hand graphic.,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Step 6:Choose most
35、 likely cause,Reduce the probable root causes to one,by choosing the one cause that the team believes,if solved,will lead to resolution of the problemUse open discussion for this step(and if necessary,voting),Problem/Effect,Theme 1,Theme 1,Theme 3,Theme 4,Theme 5,Theme 6,Sub-cause 1(Identified by Te
36、am),Sub-cause 2(Identified by Team),Sub-cause 3(Identified by individual),Sub-cause 4(Identified by Team&Individual),Most likely to lead to problem resolution,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Step 7:Select and test the best solution,Brainstorm a list of possible solutions to add
37、ress the most probable causeIdentify the top 5,or 6,preferred ideas and evaluate each idea against a number of relevant criteriaAllow the best solution to emerge through continued discussion(more than one meeting if necessary)Test the solution(pilot it)and review its effect,Selecting the Solution:,Sample,PROBLEM_SOLVING_HYPOTHESIS GENERATION_YAO.PPTreserved,Team Exercise:为什么贝塔斯曼书友会亏损严重，最终退出中国市场,Theme 1,Theme 2,Theme 6,Sub-cause?,?,Sub-cause?,?,?,?,?,?,?,Sub-cause?,Sub-cause?,Theme 4,Theme 3,Theme 5,
