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1、101101,110101,110301,110501,110701,110901,111101,中标300,建材,H 股指数,to,17 January 2012Industry Research Construction Materials2012 Investment Strategy Construction Materials,Business climate will start low andmove upwards;opportunities may bedriven by policyInvestment Highlights:Cement sector outlook:Bu
2、siness climate will start low and moveupwards in 2012E;policy will determine the industry trend.In theshort-to-medium term,railway financing may gradually climb out of itscurrent dilemma.However,construction is unlikely to regain meaningfulscale until after 2Q12E.Investment in property development i
3、s also tippedto slide further,possibly bottoming in 2Q12E.As such,we believe thebusiness climateinf the construction materials sector will remain underdownward pressure in 1H12E.Beyond mid-2012E,given stabilizinginvestment growth in the railway and real estate sectors,the businessenvironment for con
4、struction material companies could bottom out asdemand rebounds.Should policy then be relaxed,the sector will trendupwards gradually and 2012E will be a year with a“slow start andaccelerating growth.”The turning point of any up-cycle hinges on policy.In the long run,capacity expansion will pull back
5、 and industryconcentration will intensify.Also,given:(i)progressing urbanization;(ii)the building of new rural areas;and(iii)massive investment in waterconservation works,we believe the business climate will trend upwardson the back of the dual forces of improving supply/demand fundamentalsand incre
6、asing synergy.,Cement:OUTPERFORM(Reiterate)Glass:NEUTRAL(Reiterate)New Materials:OUTPERFORM(Reiterate)CSI Research DepartmentPan JianpingTel:021-68766893Email:Performance relativeindicesConstruction S&P/H-sharematerials CITIC 300 index40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%Source:CSI,Cement investment strategy:Three k
7、ey factors and policyopportunities.We reiterate our view that a rally in the cement sector willbe driven by three key factors(in the order of importance):(i)morerelaxed macro policy;(ii)industry M the special purpose glass market will remain strong.Due tosluggish demand and overcapacity,the business
8、 climate in the float glasssector has been trending south.As of now,over 70%of the float glasscompanies in Mainland China have posted losses and the sectorsaverage gross margin and net margin have fallen to 5.5%and-1%,respectively.Considering the historic cyclical movement pattern,webelieve that the
9、 business climate for sheet glass producers will descendto the trough in 2Q12E and that the ensuing suspension of output couldusher in in a new upward cycle.Demand for ultra-thin glass will surgethanks to touch screen and LCD production.Although short-term demandfor TCO(Transparent Conductive Oxide)
10、glass faces uncertainty due tofluid demand for PV glass,there is broad potential for import subsitution.We believe strong demand for ultra-thin and TCO glass will be sustainedgoing forward.Please do read the Disclaimer at the end of the report,Buy,Sell,2012 Investment Strategy Construction Materials
11、DisclaimerThis research report is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell anysecurities in any jurisdiction.The securities referred to in this research report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions.The i
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24、ific recommendations or views expressed in this researchreport.This research report has been produced in its entirety by CSBHK(CE Number:AAE879,regulated by the Securities and Futures Commissionin Hong Kong).This research report is being distributed in the United States by CSBHK pursuant to Rule 15a
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26、ingin relation to securities have no disclosable financial interests in the stocks reviewed in this research report.CSBHK and each of its group companies that carry on a business in Hong Kong in investment banking,proprietary trading or agency brokingin relation to securities have received compensat
27、ion from or mandates for investment banking services in the past 12 months from listedcorporations whose stocks are being reviewed by CSBHK in this research report.CSBHK and each its group companies that carry on a business in Hong Kong in investment banking,proprietary trading or agency broking inr
28、elation to securities do not have an individual employed by or associated with them serving as an officer of a listed corporation whose stocksare being reviewed by CSBHK in this research reportCSBHK and each of its group companies that carry on a business in Hong Kong in investment banking,proprieta
29、ry trading or agency brokingin relation to securities are not market makers in the stocks reviewed by CSBHK in this research report.Further information on the securities discussed in this research report is available upon request.Investment rating systemPerformance of stock or sector relative to MSC
30、I-China over next 6 months after research publications,RatingOverweight,RemarkRelative performance over MSCI-China Index 20%Relative performance over MSCI-China Index 5%20%,Stock ratingSector rating,HoldNROutperformNeutralUnderperform,Relative performance over MSCI-China Index-10%5%Relative performa
31、nce over MSCI-China Index-10%Not ratedRelative performance over MSCI-China Index 10%Relative performance over MSCI-China Index-10%10%Relative performance over MSCI-China Index-10%,地址:电话：传真：电邮:网址：,香港中环添美道 1 号中信大厦 26 楼(852)2237 9250(852)2104.hkhttp:/.hk,Address:Tel:Fax:EmailWebsite:,26/F CITIC Tower1 Tim Mei AvenueCentral,Hong Kong(852)2237 9250(852)2104.hkhttp:/.hk,
