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1、S.Africa,China,Poland,Korea,India,Thailand,Russia,Czech,Brazil,Taiwan,Mexico,Malaysia,Turkey,Egypt,John Lomax*,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abcGlobal Research,Monthly GEMsequity flowsEM equity flows continue to outpace DM,Emerging market equity funds poststrong inflows during November GEM
2、funds further increased theirexposure to Egypt,Flows into country dedicated funds over last 3 months as%of AuM15%12%9%10%7%7%6%5%3%3%2%0%0%,while locals trimmed their Egyptianequity positionsIn this monthly note,we analyse the liquidity flow trends,-5%-10%,-2%-2%-4%-4%-8%,Wietse Nijenhuis*Strategist
3、HSBC Bank plc(UK)+44 20 7992 StrategistHSBC Bank plc(UK)+44 20 7992 Ritika Chhabra*Associate,BangaloreView HSBC Global Research at http:/*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities(USA)Inc,and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsIssuer of report:HSBC Bank plc08 January 20
4、13Disclaimer&DisclosuresThis report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certificationsin the Disclosure appendix,and with theDisclaimer,which forms part of it,and fund manager positioning around Emerging market(EM)equities.Data was obtained from EPFR Global andthe latest data point pert
5、ains to November 2012.Investors showed a clear preference for Emerging marketfunds over Developed market funds during November.DM funds saw outflows of 0.3%of their AuM,whereasEM funds attracted inflows of 0.8%of their AuM,highestsince February.2012 year to date,DM funds facedredemptions equivalent
6、to 1.2%of their AuM whereas EMfaced have added 4.1%(table on page 35).Within EM,Asia ex Japan funds recorded inflows of 1.3%of their AuM,the highest since Nov10.GEM funds(witha broad mandate to invest across EM equities)also postedsizeable inflows.Moreover,our analysis of high frequencydata on weekl
7、y basis confirms that these regional equityfunds continue to attract investors money duringDecember(see GEM fund flows Not the end of the worldfor EM,21 December 2012).On the contrary,EMEA andLatam funds posted outflows of 1.0%and 0.6%of theirAuM respectively.,Source:EPFR Global,HSBCBy single-countr
8、y dedicated funds,all Asian and Latamsingle-country equity funds saw inflows(except India andChile)while all EMEA countries(except Turkey)postedoutflows(top left chart on page 4).Egypt dedicated fundshave suffered most during November as well as over thepast 3 months(see chart above),losing 8%of AuM
9、.On the other hand,in terms of GEM equity funds countryallocations,investors continued to increase their exposureto Egypt in relation to the benchmark weight(11%duringNovember).The current relative weight of Egypt is 59%higher than the relative weight 3 months ago(table on page13).Other countries wh
10、ich saw a significant increase in 1month relative weight are Peru(5%),Poland(4%),Philippines(4%)and Thailand(3%).By sectors,fundmanagers increased their relative exposure to EMIndustrials by 3%while they cut their allocations toUtilities,Energy and Materials by 8%,2%and1%respectively.,6,19,7,7,8,8,2
11、5,37,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets08 January 2013Contents,abc,Funds flows,3,Turkey,17,Indonesia,28,Cross-sectional comparison of Flow of Funds(%of AuM)4,Egypt,17,Thailand,29,Monthly Flow(%of AuM),5,Poland,18,Philippines,29,Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds(%of AuM)6,Hungary,18,Cumu
12、lative flows to EM and DM equity funds split byETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM),Czech Republic,GEM SectorsFinancials Materials,3132,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds(%ofAuM),Lat-AmBrazil,2122,Energy TelecomsConsumer Discretionary,Consumer Staples,3233,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity
13、funds split byETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM)AuM of EM regional equity fundsAuM of EM regional equity funds split by ETFs and non-ETFs,MexicoChileColombiaPeru,22232324,IndustrialsUtilitiesAppendix,Information TechnologyHealth Care,333436,GEM fund positioning,11 EM Asia,Disclosure appendix,GEM Equity Fund
14、 Allocations,13,China,26,Disclaimer,39,India,26,CEEMEARussiaSouth Africa,151616,KoreaTaiwanMalaysia,272728,2,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,08 January 2013Funds flows3,Indonesia,India,S.Korea,S.Africa,Poland,Peru,China,Chile,Colombia,Thailand,Czech,Russia,Brazil,Philippines,Taiwan,Malays
15、ia,Mexico,Turkey,Egypt,Indonesia,S.Korea,Thailand,S.Africa,India,Poland,Peru,China,Chile,Colombia,Russia,Brazil,CzechRep.,Philippines,Taiwan,Malaysia,Mexico,Turkey,Egypt,HealthCare,Industrials,Utilities,IT,Cons.Staples,Cons.Disc.,Financials,Materials,Telecom,Energy,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging mar
16、kets08 January 2013Cross-sectional comparison of Flow of Funds(%of AuM),abc,Flows into dedicated emerging country equity funds over the last month and 3 monthaverage(%of AuM)15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%,Flows into dedicated emerging country equity funds over the last month and 12 monthaverage(%of AuM)15.
17、0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%,Last Month Flow(%of AuM),3 Month Av erage,Last Month Flow(%of AuM),12 Month Av erage,Source:EPFR Global,HSBCFlows into major regional equity funds over the last month and 3 month average(%ofAuM),Source:EPFR Global,HSBCFlows into the EM sector equity funds over the last month and
18、 3 month average(%ofAUM),1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%,1.3%,0.9%,0.8%,0.1%,1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%,1.0%,1.0%,0.9%,0.9%,0.8%,0.8%,0.7%,0.7%,0.7%,0.6%,-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%,-0.2%,-0.2%,-0.3%,-0.6%,-1.0%,0.2%0.0%,Asia ex,GEM,All EM,Japan Western Global,USA,Lat-Am,EMEA,Japan,Europe,Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,Last Month Flow(%of
19、 AuM),3 Month Av erage,Last Month Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,3 Month Av erage(RHS),4,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Jan-10,Jan-12,Jan-04,Jan-06,Jan-08,Ja
20、n-10,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets08 January 2013Monthly Flow(%of AuM),abc,All Equity Funds1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBCAsia ex Japan Equity Funds6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,All Emerging Marke
21、t Equity Funds6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%-6.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBCLatin American Equity Funds15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,GEM Equity Funds4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%Source:EPFR Global,HSBCEMEA Equity Funds15.0%10.0%5.0
22、%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%Source:EPFR Global,HSBC,Monthly Flow(%of AuM)Monthly Flow(%of AuM),5,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-12,Jan-12,Jul-10,Jul-11,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jul-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-0
23、6,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets08 January 2013Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds(%of AuM),abc,Cumulative flows to the EM and DM equity funds since 200280%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%,Cum
24、ulative flows to the EM and DM equity funds since 201014%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%,Emerging Market Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals,Emerging Market Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals,Cumulative flows to EM and DM equity funds split by ETF
25、s and non-ETFs(%of AuM),ETFs600%500%400%300%200%100%0%,Non-ETFs50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,Emerging Market Fund Totals ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals ETF,Emerging Market Fund Totals ex-ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Dev eloped Market Fund Totals ex-ETF,6,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-
26、05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-12,Jan-12,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jul-10,Jul-11,Jul-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Equity Str
27、ategyGlobal Emerging markets08 January 2013Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds(%of AuM),abc,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds since 2002120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds since 201030%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%,GEM Fund TotalsLatin America
28、 Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,GEM Fund TotalsLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,Cumulative flows into EM regional equity funds split by ETFs and non-ETFs(%of AuM),ETFs1000%800%600%400%200%0%-200%,
29、Non-ETFs80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%,GEM Fund Totals ETFsLatin America Fund Totals ETFsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ETFsEMEA Fund Totals ETFs,GEM Fund Totals ex-ETFLatin America Fund Totals ex-ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ex-ETFEMEA Fund Totals ex-ETF,7,Jan-02,
30、Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Oct-12,Jan-12,Jul-10,Jul-11,Apr-10,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-11,Jul-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09
31、,Jan-10,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets08 January 2013AuM of EM regional equity fundsAssets under management of EM regional equity funds since 2002600 USD bn5004003002001000,Assets under management of EM regional equity funds since 2010600 USD bn5004003002001000,abc,GEM Fund TotalsLatin Ameri
32、ca Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,GEM Fund TotalsLatin America Fund TotalsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund TotalsEMEA Fund Totals,AuM of EM regional equity funds split by ETFs and non-ETFs,ETFs140 USD bn120100806040200,Non-ETFs450 USD bn4003503
33、00250200150100500,GEM Fund Totals ETFsLatin America Fund Totals ETFsSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ETFsEMEA Fund Totals ETFs,GEM Fund Totals ex-ETFLatin America Fund Totals ex-ETFSource:EPFR Global,HSBC,Asia ex-Japan Fund Totals ex-ETFEMEA Fund Totals ex-ETF,8,Equity StrategyGloba
34、l Emerging markets08 January 2013Thematic map showing the year-to-date flows(%of AuM)into the dedicated country equity fundsColour Legend,abc,-45%,-45.0%to-30.0%,-30.0%to-15.0%,-15.0%to 0.0%,0.0%to 15.0%,15.0%to 30.0%,30.0%to 45.0%,45.0%,Source:EPFR Global,HSBC9,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging market
35、s,abc,08 January 2013This page has been left intentionally blank10,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,08 January 2013GEM fund positioning CEEMEA Lat-Am EM Asia GEM Sectors11,12,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets08 January 2013GEM fund manager positioning in the GEM countries,abc,CountryB
36、razilChileChinaColombiaCzech RepublicEgyptHungaryIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaMexicoPeruPhilippinesPolandRussiaSouth AfricaSouth KoreaTaiwanThailandTurkey,MSCI Benchmarkweight(%)11.91.818.61.30.30.30.37.02.73.65.10.71.01.55.87.515.411.12.21.9,GEM Fund Mangerweight(%)11.61.115.30.70.30.40.47.82.62.15.00.71.
37、10.96.96.212.87.83.13.0,Fund managerpositioning relative tobenchmark0.970.600.820.520.911.181.171.120.960.590.981.051.110.621.190.830.830.711.381.53,1 month change inrelative weight-1%1%0%-4%1%11%0%0%0%0%2%5%4%4%-1%0%0%1%3%-1%,3 month change inrelative weight-3%-1%-3%-8%2%59%5%0%1%-10%6%10%-6%-1%5%-
38、4%-1%0%-3%-5%,6 month change inrelative weight-5%-5%-8%-10%18%78%4%6%5%4%15%10%6%6%9%-4%-3%-5%-5%-8%,12 month change inrelative weight-7%2%-8%42%-29%34%1%10%0%-4%21%-4%1%4%15%-5%-2%-2%-5%-4%,CashOthers,2.21.4,Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBCTable explained:Benchmark weight(A)r
39、epresents the current weight of that particular country in the MSCI Emerging market index.GEM Fund Manger weight(B)represents the current allocation in the GEM equity funds.Fund Manager positioning relative to benchmark(C)=GEM Fund Manager weight(B)/Benchmark weight(A).The four columns that follow t
40、o the right showing the change in relative weights are calculated using the changes in C over the respective time frames.Working example:Poland had 1.52%weight in the MSCI Emerging markets index while the EPFR GEM funds allocation is 0.95%.Therefore,the relative weight is 0.95/1.52=0.62.Any relative
41、 weight below 1 signifies an underweight,above 1 an overweight and an exact 1 is neutral.4%in the 1 month change columnsignifies that the relative weight of Poland was increased to the current level of 0.625 from 0.599 over the last month.Therefore,the fund managers have decreased their underweight
42、position in Poland by 4%during November 2012.GEM Fund manager positioning in the GEMs sectors,SectorEnergyMaterialsIndustrialsConsumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesHealth CareFinancialsInformation TechnologyTelecom ServicesUtilities,MSCI Benchmarkweight(%)12.611.66.48.08.71.225.914.37.83.5,GEM Fund
43、Mangerweight(%)10.910.06.310.610.02.124.813.96.42.2,Fund managerpositioning relative tobenchmark0.870.860.991.331.151.710.960.970.820.62,1 month change inrelative weight-2%-1%3%0%1%1%0%0%0%-8%,3 month change inrelative weight-5%6%-6%4%8%4%-2%0%-3%0%,6 month change inrelative weight-5%8%-3%1%15%18%-3
44、%-5%-2%8%,12 month change inrelative weight-4%0%4%1%10%24%-2%-2%-8%-5%,CashOthersSource:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBC,2.30.4,SouthAfrica,SouthKorea,Indonesia,India,Brazil,Colombia,China,Russia,Thailand,Chile,Poland,Peru,Philippines,Hungary,CzechRepublic,Egypt,Malaysia,Taiwan,Mexic
45、o,Turkey,OtherLat-Am,SouthKorea,India,SouthAfrica,Indonesia,Russia,Thailand,Poland,Brazil,CzechRepublic,Hungary,China,GCC,Philippines,Taiwan,Mexico,Malaysia,Turkey,Egypt,Discretionary,Technology,HealthCare,Information,Consumer,Financials,Consumer,Industrials,Materials,Telecom,Energy,Services,Staples
46、,Utilities,Mar-96,Sep-96,Mar-97,Sep-97,Mar-98,Sep-98,Mar-99,Sep-99,Mar-00,Sep-00,Mar-01,Sep-01,Mar-02,Sep-02,Mar-03,Sep-03,Mar-04,Sep-04,Mar-05,Sep-05,Mar-06,Sep-06,Mar-07,Sep-07,Mar-08,Sep-08,Mar-09,Sep-09,Mar-10,Sep-10,Mar-11,Sep-11,Mar-12,Sep-12,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets08 January 20
47、13GEM Equity Fund AllocationsCountry weights in GEM equity funds20%15%10%5%0%,HSBC country weightings20%15%10%5%0%,abc,Fund Manager Weight(%),MSCI Benchmark w eight(%),HSBC Recommended Weight(%),MSCI Benchmark weight(%),Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBCSector weights in GEM equ
48、ity funds25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%,Source:MSCI,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBCDispersion*in country allocation of the GEM equity funds A measure of country rotation0.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0,Fund Manager Weight(%),MSCI Benchmark w eight(%),GEM Equity Funds Allocation Dispersion,LT.Av erage(all h
49、istory),Source:MSCI,EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBC,Source:EPFR Global,Thomson Reuters DataStream,HSBC*dispersion is calculated as the sum of squared deviations of the current weight of all countries from their three month averages,13,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,08 January
50、 2013This page has been left intentionally blank14,Equity StrategyGlobal Emerging markets,abc,08 January 2013CEEMEA15,Jun-04,Jun-05,Jun-06,Jun-07,Jun-08,Jun-09,Jun-10,Jun-11,Jun-12,OW,Jan-10,Feb-10,Mar-10,Apr-10,May-10,Jun-10,Jul-10,Aug-10,Sep-10,Oct-10,Nov-10,Dec-10,Jan-11,Feb-11,Mar-11,Apr-11,May-
