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1、1.3,0.8,S-12,证券研究报告动态报告,公司研究,Page 1,医药保健制药与生物一年该股与沪深 300 走势比较,广州药业（600332）2012 年三季报点评财报点评,推荐（维持评级）2012 年 10 月 30 日,2.3,广州药业,沪深300,“新广药”增势良好,1.8,广州药业：业绩增长,23%，EPS0.36 元,1-9 月广州药业收入 54.8 亿元增 33%，净利润 2.93 亿元增 22%，EPS0.36 元/股，扣非后 2.83 亿元增 23%略低于我们预期的 26%。其中 Q3 收入 19.8 亿增,N-11 J-12 M-12 M-12 J-12股票数据,51%
2、，扣非净利 0.73 亿增 25%，EPS0.09。Q3 诺诚生物的狂犬疫苗因一过性因素影响销售，致投资净收益减少，Q4 将恢复正常。若剔除该因素 Q3 和 Q1-3,总股本/流通(百万股)总市值/流通(百万元),811/59117,467/12,730,扣非净利润分别约 0.93 亿增 59%、3.03 亿增 32%。经营性现金流 0.73 元/股（+464%）主要为王老吉经销商预付款。,上证综指/深圳成指,2,059/8,377,红罐王老吉快速扩产和铺货之中，绿盒王老吉收入增长约,26%,12 个月最高/最低元）,33.76/11.94,Q3 估计红罐王老吉实现销售收入 7-8 亿元，但因
3、部分代工企业财务系统彼时尚未纳入公司管理体系，实际确认的报表收入预计 5 亿多，短期暂不贡献利润。,相关研究报告：广州药业-600332-2012 年半年报点评：增势良好 2012-08-27广州药业-600332-深度报告：新发展，新期待 2012-07-16广州药业-600332-深度报告：新发展，新期待 2012-07-13广州药业-600332-恢复性平稳增长 2011-10-30广州药业-600332-成本压力下平稳增长2011-09-05证券分析师：贺平鸽电话：0755-82133396E-MAIL：证券投资咨询执业资格证书编码：S0980510120026证券分析师：杜佐远电话：
4、0755-82130473E-MAIL：证券投资咨询执业资格证书编码：S0980512070001,绿盒王老吉收入 15-16 亿元增长约 26%。红罐王老吉最新产能 800-1000 万箱/月，预计全年红罐王老吉收入 20-25 亿元，红绿合计 40-45 亿元。白云山：业绩增长 33%，EPS0.60 元1-9 月白云山收入 34 亿元增 19%，净利润 2.80 亿元增 33%，EPS0.60 元，扣非后 2.73 亿元增 33%，经营性现金流 0.93 元/股（+95%）远超净利润。白云近年业绩和经营质量持续表现优异：应收款历年变化小显示现金回流好，应收款占收入比重小显示现款现货比例高
5、，表明白云山产品和品牌强势；应付款变化小显示对上游较强势。第三季度收入 10.1 亿增 25%，净利润 0.62 亿增 22%，扣非后 0.61 亿增 27%。未来有望持续整合出效益。“新广药”整体增势良好，维持“推荐”评级1-9 月“广药+白云山”收入 88.72 亿元增 27%，净利润 5.72 亿元增 27%，整体增势良好。维持白云山 12-14 净利润 3.4/4.0/4.6 亿元和广州药业 3.7/4.5/5.4 亿元，维持重组后新广药（广药+白云山+广药拟购买资产）12-14 净利润 7.2/8.7/10.1 亿元，对应 EPS0.56/0.67/0.78，增速 28%/20%/1
6、7%（未包括红罐王老吉）。广州药业借重组白云山、王老吉商标回归，有望实现“大南药+大健康”产业双轮驱动发展：1）“优势资源+管理和营销改善”推动现有广药工商业资产经营上升趋势值得期待；2）借红罐王老吉运作发力大健康产业值得期待；3）吸并白云山之后广药集团实现整体上市，优势互补效益提升值得期待。考虑红罐王老吉，重组后整体业绩的敏感性分析显示 13EPS 为 0.98-1.14 元，对应13PE1922X，王老吉价值被低估，建议在调整中增持。盈利预测和财务指标,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,营业收入(百万元)(+/-%),7,91216.7%,9,36118.3%,11,
7、13318.9%,12,87115.6%,14,62313.6%,独立性声明：作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于本人的职业理解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意、影响，特此声明。,净利润(百万元)(+/-%)摊薄每股收益(元)EBITMargin净资产收益率(ROE)市盈率(PE)EV/EBITDA市净率(PB),48646.9%0.385.4%12.1%57.253.56.9,56315.7%0.445.6%13.5%49.446.16.3,72028.1%0.565.9%14.8%38.635.55.8,86720.3%0.676.0%15
8、.5%32.129.25.2,1,01316.9%0.786.3%16.1%27.524.64.7,资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所 注：摊薄每股收益按重组后总股本计算，未计红罐王老吉贡献,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,全球视野 本土智慧,Page 22012 年中报收入和净利润按子公司分拆1、广州药业表 1：广州药业中期收入分拆（亿元）,10H1,11H1,12H1,下属企业医药工业中一药业陈李济药厂奇星药业星群药业潘高寿药业敬修堂药业广西盈康王老吉药业（合营）诺诚生物（合营）,销售收入18.313.331.161.541.161.501.060.198.360.01,增长率,销售
9、收入22.933.781.371.981.401.781.280.2210.890.23,增长率25.26%13.6%18.3%28.4%21.2%18.4%20.7%13.7%30.3%2015%,销售收入28.484.541.602.281.681.951.380.2313.411.42,增长率24.21%20.3%16.6%15.0%19.8%9.6%8.0%3.1%23.1%505.6%,王老吉大健康产业,医药商业广州医药（合营）采芝林药业进出口公司盈邦分公司,82.5167.058.011.745.71,95.4576.878.889.600.09,15.7%14.6%10.9%45
10、0.5%-98.4%,118.2594.5311.7711.940.01,23.9%23.0%32.5%24.3%-85.5%,药品研发,拜迪生物广州汉方上述合计收入（不包括合营企业）其他（关联交易等）广药总收入,0.010.4525.86-2.6423.22,0.010.5330.92-2.7428.17,5.1%18.6%20%21%,0.140.6938.21-3.2334.98,2226%30.5%24%24%,资料来源：公司资料、国信证券经济研究所；医药工业和医药商业分别的加总收入按子公司 100%股权加总计算。表 2：广州药业中期净利润分拆（万元）,净利润（万元）,10H1,11H
11、1,12H1,医药工业,持股比例,净利润13129,增长率,净利润13712,增长率4%,净利润18433,增长率34%,中一药业陈李济药厂奇星药业星群药业潘高寿药业敬修堂药业广西盈康王老吉药业（合营）诺诚生物（合营）,100%100.00%75.00%88.99%87.77%88.40%51.00%48.05%49.24%,632712051222457783851346457-583,400414981369772100810765610260-605,-37%24%12%69%29%26%64%59%4%,50691632184810231341114479103404926,27%9%
12、35%32%33%6%40%1%大幅盈利,王老吉大健康产业,100.00%,-186,亏损,医药商业,3993,4427,11%,4968,12%,广州医药（合营）采芝林药业进出口公司盈邦分公司,50.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%,6044490168313,6760671271106,12%37%61%-66%,81074884206,20%-27%55%-94%,药品研发,拜迪生物广州汉方上述合计贡献母公司净利润,98.48%99.26%,-788-25116384,-769-21517467,续亏续亏7%,176323922948,大幅盈利扭亏31%,其他（母公司费用
13、等）,494,496,-1240,广药归母公司净利润,16878,17962,6%,21708,21%,数据来源：wind。注：合营公司净利润按全额列；诺诚生物净利润体现在拜迪生物（控股诺诚生物 50%股权）；医药工业和医药商业分别的加总净利润按各子公司股权比例加总计算。,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,全球视野 本土智慧,Page 32、白云山表 1：白云山中期收入分拆（百万元）,12H1,11H1,持股比例,主营收入,增长率,主营收入,增长率,天心制药光华制药明兴制药白云山和黄百特侨光母公司及其他合计,82.49%84.48%100%50%50%,44427326472597140623
14、87,15%22%18%13%21%17%17%,3852242256438112012034,资料来源：公司资料、国信证券经济所；注：母公司及其他包括白云山制药总厂、白云山化学制药厂、何济公等。表 2：白云山中期净利润分拆（百万元）,12H1,11H1,持股比例,净利润,增长率,净利润,增长率,天心制药光华制药明兴制药,82.49%84.48%100%,342124,42%27%19%,241720,白云山和黄百特侨光,50%50%,681,13%扭亏,60-3,10%续亏,投资收益（剔除和黄、百特侨光）公允价值变动净收益,05,00,母公司及其他合计,109218,42%37%,77160
15、,资料来源：公司资料、国信证券经济所；注：母公司及其他包括白云山制药总厂、白云山化学制药厂、何济公等。表 3：白云山过亿产品销售情况,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,11H1,12H1,收入（亿元）,阿莫西林清开灵一力咳特灵注射用头孢硫脒系列头孢克肟头孢曲松钠原料药,18218213374184,19119315110379124,222178176138104,23121819720511982,223274208265147127,207357152354181110,126178691778970,1192178628313151,头孢呋辛钠小柴胡阿咖酚散,8
16、9,1019595,110129141,607370,5211770,复方丹参片板蓝根颗粒,241183,270242,292294,296411,399360,358337,249231,中/长链脂肪乳注射液,164,162,205,77,增长率(%),阿莫西林清开灵一力咳特灵注射用头孢硫脒系列头孢克肟头孢曲松钠原料药,13.54%10.15%10.33%56.08%,4.57%6.25%13.01%38.26%-32.46%,16.61%-7.87%16.72%34.23%31.29%,3.71%22.27%12.02%48.85%14.45%,-3.41%25.72%5.49%29.23
17、%23.27%54.41%,-7.13%30.63%-26.81%33.69%22.95%-13.68%,5.95%24.04%-26.84%26.96%21.84%43.48%,-5.30%21.54%25.69%59.81%48.04%-27.81%,头孢呋辛钠小柴胡阿咖酚散,13.71%,8.91%36.09%47.65%,29.66%56.97%26.27%,-13.67%61.15%0.56%,复方丹参片板蓝根颗粒,-20.55%-4.23%,12.31%32.00%,7.92%21.66%,1.47%39.69%,34.80%-12.41%,-10.40%-6.47%,-3.32%
18、18.76%,中/长链脂肪乳注射液毛利率,26.51%,9.62%,阿莫西林清开灵一力咳特灵注射用头孢硫脒系列头孢克肟头孢曲松钠原料药,35.60%60.12%13.47%55.00%4.67%,23.65%57.21%23.02%49.64%55.48%3.82%,35.90%52.74%16.94%53.81%63.75%,47.05%53.30%12.71%51.01%70.21%2.08%,48.48%49.98%9.18%47.99%70.90%-1.44%,44.11%49.49%4.20%50.18%71.82%-9.29%,43.76%49.55%0.89%50.10%70.2
19、6%-6.75%,50.53%48.73%2.83%58.03%69.34%-4.96%,头孢呋辛钠小柴胡阿咖酚散,6.15%,3.55%42.20%42.65%,4.56%36.09%47.65%,2.09%37.80%46.19%,10.94%36.58%50.24%,资料来源：公司资料、国信证券经济研究所；注：复方丹参片、板蓝根颗粒为合营企业白云山和黄产品，中/长链脂肪乳注射液为合营企业百特侨光产品。,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,全球视野 本土智慧,Page 4盈利预测1、广州药业（未包括红罐王老吉）广州药业（未包括红罐王老吉）收入预测按子公司（单位：亿元）,销售收入（亿元）,20
20、09,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,下属企业医药工业中一药业陈李济药厂奇星药业星群药业潘高寿药业敬修堂药业广西盈康王老吉药业（合营）,收入32.136.202.262.701.492.371.920.3214.86,增长率9.7%10.3%15.0%18.6%-21.0%-4.6%2.3%15.6%15.2%,收入35.806.842.293.242.202.742.080.3715.52,增长率22.19%10.2%1.3%20.0%47.3%15.4%8.1%14.6%4.4%,收入44.117.482.754.002.593.332.500.4519.30,增长
21、率23.20%9.5%19.9%23.4%17.9%21.7%20.3%20.0%24.4%,收入53.018.613.104.603.013.662.750.5224.13,增长率20.19%15.0%13.0%15.0%16.0%10.0%10.0%16.0%25.0%,收入62.929.473.485.293.464.213.080.6028.96,增长率18.69%10.0%12.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%12.0%15.0%20.0%,收入73.2210.323.826.083.914.723.390.6834.17,增长率16.37%9.0%10.0%15.0%13.0%1
22、2.0%10.0%14.0%18.0%,诺诚生物（合营）,0.52,1.70,223.2%,2.63,54.8%,4.38,66.7%,6.13,40.0%,医药商业广州医药（合营）采芝林药业进出口公司盈邦分公司,137.02113.1113.792.697.42,13.6%14.8%-1.4%-9.0%45.1%,161.96132.6116.006.856.49,18.2%34.6%14.3%131.4%-12.5%,193.20157.9817.8517.240.13,19.3%19.1%11.6%151.5%-98.0%,232.70189.5822.3120.680.13,20.4%
23、20.0%25.0%20.0%0.0%,273.90223.7025.6624.410.13,17.7%18.0%15.0%18.0%0.0%,316.43259.5028.7428.070.13,15.5%16.0%12.0%15.0%0.0%,药品研发,拜迪生物广州汉方上述合计收入（不包括合营企业）,0.020.7541.96,56.6%276.8%8%,0.010.8549.97,-7.8%12.7%19%,0.161.0359.51,1045.5%20.6%19%,0.191.2370.80,20.0%20.0%19%,0.231.4581.46,18.0%18.0%15%,0.261
24、.6991.81,15.0%16.0%13%,其他（关联交易等）,-3.14,-5.11,-5.11,-5.11,-5.11,-5.11,广药总收入,38.82,10%,44.86,16%,54.40,21%,65.69,21%,76.35,16%,86.70,14%,资料来源：公司资料、国信证券经济研究所。注：合营公司收入按全额列；医药工业和医药商业分别的加总收入按子公司 100%股权加总计算。表 2：广州药业（未包括红罐王老吉）净利润预测按子公司（单位：万元）,净利润（万元）,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,医药工业,持股比例,净利润15020,增长率84
25、%,净利润20027,增长率33%,净利润21056,增长率5%,净利润28261,增长率34%,净利润35823,增长率27%,净利润43099,增长率20%,中一药业陈李济药厂奇星药业星群药业潘高寿药业敬修堂药业广西盈康王老吉药业（合营）,100%100.00%75.00%88.99%87.77%88.40%51.00%48.05%,76841953718-4578334849-916401,163%1%扭亏续亏-50%-37%续亏-5%,88312080146554381315306310516,15%6%104%扭亏143%80%扭亏-36%,355528302304115017931
26、96112514234,-60%36%57%112%121%28%98%35%,51553198287914952242215716215942,45%13%25%30%25%10%30%12%,64443582345518692578241620318811,25%12%20%25%15%12%25%18%,74113940407722432887265824321821,15%10%18%20%12%10%20%16%,诺诚生物（合营）,49.24%,780,3470,345%,9750,181%,16250,67%,22750,40%,医药商业,6810,8%,7569,11%,8242
27、,9%,9388,14%,10509,12%,11744,12%,广州医药（合营）采芝林药业进出口公司盈邦分公司,50.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%,11120817-100533,26%-39%-153%31%,12070843157534,9%3%257%0%,13462867529115,12%3%237%-78%,1588569474012,18%-20%40%-90%,1779272887412,12%5%18%0%,19927765100512,12%5%15%0%,药品研发,拜迪生物广州汉方,98.48%99.26%,-840-1498,nana,-682-1
28、602,nana,63780,扭亏扭亏,540296,748%20%,8002113,48%18%,10602132,32%16%,上述合计贡献母公司净利润,19516,81%,24949,28%,28296,13%,36663,30%,45363,24%,53892,19%,其他,1582,1762,458,0,0,0,广药归母公司净利润,21099,16%,26711,27%,28753,8%,36663,28%,45363,24%,53892,19%,资料来源：公司资料、国信证券经济研究所。注：合营公司净利润按全额列；诺诚生物净利润体现在拜迪生物（控股诺诚生物 50%股权）；医药工业和医
29、药商业分别的加总净利润按各子公司股权比例加总计算。,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,全球视野 本土智慧,Page 52、白云山表 4：白云山收入分拆及预测（百万元）,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,持股比例,主营收入,增长率,主营收入,增长率,主营收入,增长率,主营收入,增长率,主营收入,增长率,主营收入,增长率,天心制药光华制药明兴制药白云山和黄百特侨光母公司及其他合计,82.49%84.48%100%50%50%,44526427893016818082795,17%12%16%21%17%2%6%,514316339102419621483317,16
30、%20%22%10%17%19%19%,615398436110621123503799,20%26%29%8%7%9%15%,708485510123925327264429,15%22%17%12%20%16%17%,807582592136329831075088,14%20%16%10%18%14%15%,912687681147234335115791,13%18%15%8%15%13%14%,资料来源：公司资料、国信证券经济所；注：母公司及其他包括白云山制药总厂、白云山化学制药厂、何济公等。表 5：白云山净利润分拆及预测（百万元）,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013
31、E,2014E,持股比例,净利润,增长率,净利润,增长率,净利润,增长率,净利润,增长率,净利润,增长率,净利润,增长率,天心制药光华制药明兴制药白云山和黄百特侨光,82.49%84.48%100%50%50%,2782497-39,31%671%137%4%续亏,25112489-19,-6%39%1%-7%续亏,3229321035,28%158%33%15%扭亏,4536381156,38%25%18%12%25%,5244451287,16%22%17%11%23%,5952521409,15%20%16%9%20%,投资收益(剔除和黄、百特侨光)公允价值变动净收益,22,53,0-1
32、,0-1,0-1,0-1,母公司及其他合计,23108,284%41%,108205,380%90%,124261,15%28%,174340,40%30%,207399,19%17%,240459,16%15%,资料来源：公司资料、国信证券经济所；注：母公司及其他包括白云山制药总厂、白云山化学制药厂、何济公等。3、重组后新广药表：广州药业、白云山、合并后新广药收入（亿元）、净利润（万元）模拟预测（未包括红罐王老吉）。,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,收入,38.82,44.86,54.40,65.69,76.35,86.70,1、广州药业 A/H其中：诺诚生
33、物（持股 49.24%）王老吉药业（持股 48.0465%）2、白云山3、本次重组广药拟购买资产合并后新广药 A/H（1+2+3）,净利润增速EPS收入净利润增速贡献 EPS收入净利润增速贡献 EPS收入净利润增速EPS收入净利润收入净利润增速摊薄 EPS,210990.26000.0014.86164010.1027.95107770.231.03124167.80331170.26,2671127%0.330.527800.0015.5210516-36%0.0633.172047490%0.441.09144779.124863246.9%0.38,287538%0.351.703470
34、345%0.0219.301423435%0.0837.992610928%0.561.22139393.615625415.7%0.44,3666328%0.452.639750181%0.0624.131594212%0.0944.293396530%0.721.341409111.337203828.1%0.56,4536324%0.564.381625067%0.1028.961881118%0.1150.883988417%0.851.481427128.718667420.3%0.67,5389219%0.666.132275040%0.1434.172182116%0.1357.
35、914594515%0.981.631447146.2310128416.9%0.78,注：广药拟购买的 4 个资产中百特医疗以现金分红形式贡献利润，保联拓展 100%并表，房屋建筑物和商标每年贡献稳定净利润（减少租赁支出、收取商标许可费）。摊薄 EPS 指广药、白云山合并后总股本 12.91 亿计算的 EPS。,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,全球视野 本土智慧,Page 6红罐王老吉对业绩增厚的盈利预测敏感性分析盈利预测敏感性分析：红罐王老吉对重组前广药 EPS 增厚贡献的敏感性分析（广药重组前总股本 8.11 亿股）假设红罐王老吉销售收入（亿元）,净利率2%4%6%8%10%12%14
36、%16%18%20%,100.020.050.070.100.120.150.170.200.220.25,200.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.390.440.49,300.070.150.220.300.370.440.520.590.670.74,400.100.200.300.390.490.590.690.790.890.99,500.120.250.370.490.620.740.860.991.111.23,600.150.300.440.590.740.891.041.181.331.48,700.170.350.520.690.861.041.211
37、.381.551.73,800.200.390.590.790.991.181.381.581.781.97,900.220.440.670.891.111.331.551.782.002.22,1000.250.490.740.991.231.481.731.972.222.47,1100.270.540.811.091.361.631.902.172.442.71,1200.300.590.891.181.481.782.072.372.662.96,数据来源：公司资料、国信证券经济研究所（黄色、橙色分别代表 2012 年、2013 年情景）红罐王老吉对重组后新广药 EPS 增厚贡献的敏感
38、性分析（广药重组后总股本 12.91 亿假设红罐王老吉销售收入（亿元）,净利率2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%,100.020.030.050.060.080.090.110.120.140.15,200.030.060.090.120.150.190.220.250.280.31,300.050.090.140.190.230.280.330.370.420.46,400.060.120.190.250.310.370.430.500.560.62,500.080.150.230.310.390.460.540.620.700.77,600.090.190.280.370
39、.460.560.650.740.840.93,700.110.220.330.430.540.650.760.870.981.08,800.120.250.370.500.620.740.870.991.121.24,900.140.280.420.560.700.840.981.121.251.39,1000.150.310.460.620.770.931.081.241.391.55,1100.170.340.510.680.851.021.191.361.531.70,1200.190.370.560.740.931.121.301.491.671.86,数据来源：公司资料、国信证券经
40、济研究所（黄色、橙色分别代表 2012 年、2013 年情景）2013 年模拟 EPS（2013 年新广药+红罐王老吉贡献 EPS(整个年份)）假设红罐王老吉销售收入（亿元）,净利率8%10%12%14%16%18%20%,300.860.900.951.001.041.091.14,400.920.981.041.111.171.231.29,500.981.061.141.211.291.371.45,601.041.141.231.321.421.511.60,701.111.211.321.431.541.651.76,801.171.291.421.541.661.791.91,90
41、1.231.371.511.651.791.932.07,数据来源：公司资料、国信证券经济研究所,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,全球视野 本土智慧,Page 7附表 1：广州药业财务预测与估值,资产负债表（百万元）现金及现金等价物应收款项存货净额其他流动资产流动资产合计固定资产无形资产及其他投资性房地产长期股权投资资产总计短期借款及交易性金融负债应付款项其他流动负债流动负债合计长期借款及应付债券,20113849318591352312102095168125548511453563718710,2012E736900930163273210339216812655291145664252
42、10610,2013E6691150116518931761041891681275575014577629312150,2014E6451425140821536971015861681285625114588033213570,利润表（百万元）营业收入营业成本营业税金及附加销售费用管理费用财务费用投资收益资产减值及公允价值变动其他收入营业利润营业外净收支利润总额所得税费用少数股东损益归属于母公司净利润,201154404043447114812154(4)0309263353512288,2012E65694883538595889250(2)0425274526817367,2013E7
43、6355697629936748330(2)0530285598421454,2014E867064517011247618380(2)0634296639925539,其他长期负债,85,105,125,145,长期负债合计负债合计少数股东权益股东权益负债和股东权益总计,8595611437824851,105116612440025291,125133913642745750,145150215145986251,现金流量表（百万元）净利润资产减值准备折旧摊销公允价值变动损失,201128851084,2012E367(1)892,2013E4540942,2014E5390992,财务费
44、用,2,9,8,8,关键财务与估值指标每股收益每股红利每股净资产ROSROE毛利率EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin收入增长净利润增长率资产负债率息率P/EP/BEV/EBITDA,20110.350.064.665%8%26%3%5%21%8%22%0.3%60.74.668.4,2012E0.450.184.946%9%26%3%4%21%28%24%0.8%47.64.467.9,2013E0.560.225.276%11%25%3%4%16%24%26%1.0%38.54.161.7,2014E0.660.275.676%12%26%3%4%14%19%26%1.2%32
45、.43.852.3,营运资本变动其它经营活动现金流资本开支其它投资现金流投资活动现金流权益性融资负债净变化支付股利、利息其它融资现金流融资活动现金流现金净变动货币资金的期初余额货币资金的期末余额企业自由现金流权益自由现金流,(433)6(23)(57)9(351)10(47)14351(323)707384(222)(79),14111609(100)0(110)00(147)0(147)352384736288280,(338)12225(101)0(111)00(182)0(182)(68)736669(166)(172),(381)15273(71)0(81)00(215)0(215)(
46、24)669645(129)(136),资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所预测,请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分,全球视野 本土智慧,Page 8附表 2：白云山财务预测与估值,资产负债表（百万元）现金及现金等价物应收款项存货净额其他流动资产流动资产合计固定资产无形资产及其他投资性房地产长期股权投资资产总计短期借款及交易性金融负债应付款项其他流动负债流动负债合计长期借款及应付债券,2011268584701601613687198379270314780635641015720,2012E453680812702015701191379300358685641247717450,2013E
47、630782929812421710185379330402585647254818750,2014E8518891052922885714178379360451785653462320130,利润表（百万元）营业收入营业成本营业税金及附加销售费用管理费用财务费用投资收益资产减值及公允价值变动其他收入营业利润营业外净收支利润总额所得税费用少数股东损益归属于母公司净利润,20113799251534507432515400314143284819261,2012E44302877405895184158(7)0415144296425340,2013E50903290466875974167(
48、7)0488145037529398,2014E57913727527886873875(7)0566145818734460,其他长期负债,168,184,201,217,长期负债合计负债合计少数股东权益股东权益负债和股东权益总计,16817406413443147,18419298415733586,201207610718424025,217223013421524517,现金流量表（百万元）净利润资产减值准备折旧摊销公允价值变动损失,2011261(4)73(0),2012E3401527,2013E3980587,2014E4600637,财务费用,51,41,41,38,关键财务与
49、估值指标每股收益每股红利每股净资产ROICROE毛利率EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin收入增长净利润增长率资产负债率息率P/EP/BEV/EBITDA,20110.560.102.8714%19%34%8%10%15%28%57%0.8%41.78.132.9,2012E0.720.243.3518%22%35%9%10%17%30%56%1.0%32.16.928.0,2013E0.850.283.9320%22%35%9%10%15%17%54%1.2%27.45.924.6,2014E0.980.324.5921%21%36%9%10%14%15%52%1.4%23.75
50、.121.9,营运资本变动其它经营活动现金流资本开支其它投资现金流投资活动现金流权益性融资负债净变化支付股利、利息其它融资现金流融资活动现金流现金净变动货币资金的期初余额货币资金的期末余额企业自由现金流权益自由现金流,(96)17251(60)0(74)00(85)(81)(250)(73)341268183103,(77)19342(67)0(97)00(110)50(60)184268453252267,(82)23404(67)0(97)00(129)0(129)177453630307273,(88)27468(67)0(97)00(149)0(149)222630851363331,
