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1、Top picks,Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/Commodity,PeriodicalRailcar&PetroChemical,Date26 November 2012,UpdateDavid Begleiter,CFA,US chemical shipments down 1.5%.Ethane prices fall.4 c/galRailcar loadings 4-week moving avg.down 1.5%,weekly lo
2、adings down 2.9%The 4-week moving average of chemical railcar loadings declined 1.5%inWeek#46(ended November 17)vs.a 1.2%decrease the prior week.LoadingYTD are down 1.1%.Chemical railcar loadings represent 23%of total USchemical shipment tonnage(followed by trucks,barges,and pipelines),offeringa mea
3、surement of broader chemical industry activity and demand trends.Themore volatile measure of weekly loadings declined 2.9%YoY(versus a 2.5%increase in the prior week)and declined 4.9%sequentially(vs.a 3.4%increasein the prior week).Ethane prices fell.4c/gal last week to 29.1 c/gal(down 64%YTD)Ethane
4、 prices fell a modest.4c/gal last week to 29.1 c/gal while spot ethyleneprices fell 2c/lb to 51c/lb.Spot ethylene margins subsequently compressed by2c/lb to 31c/lb.Polymer grade(PG)propylene contract prices for Decemberare expected to fall 2.5c/lb to 54.5c/lb owing to improved supply and weakerseaso
5、nal demand.,Research Analyst(+1)212 250-Ramanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst()212 250-Jermaine BrownResearch Associate(+1)212 250-3624jermaine-Ashland(ASH.N),USD69.15LyondellBasell(LYB.N),USD47.99Eastman Chemical(EMN.N),USD59.25,ExxonMobils Baytown BOP-X ethylene facility(3.1%of NA capacity)remainsdo
6、wn for an unplanned maintenance outage that is expected to restart nextweek.The Flint Hills Port Arthur,TX ethylene facility(1.9%of NA capacity)remains down for a maintenance outage that is expected to last until late thismonth.We expect ethylene capacity outages to decrease sequentially inNovember(
7、4.7%of NA ethylene capacity offline),vs 6.9%offline in October,and decrease in December(1.0%of NA capacity offline).,(GDP,Real YoY)US 0.4%Euroland 0.6%Japan-0.7%G7 0.3%Asia ex-Japan 6.8%,2008,2009-2.6%-4.1%-5.3%-3.5%5.7%,20103.0%1.9%4.1%2.9%9.4%,2011 2012E 2013E1.8%2.1%1.9%1.4%-0.4%-0.2%-0.7%1.6%0.2
8、%1.4%1.3%1.2%7.3%6.1%6.7%,While ethane prices are expected to move modestly higher to 40c/gal inDecember and 43-44c/gal in January on higher propane prices,which typically,ChinaGlobal,9.0%2.7%,9.1%-0.9%,10.3%5.1%,9.2%7.7%8.2%3.6%2.9%3.1%,rise due to seasonal demand increases,we note that propane pri
9、ces have,Source:DB Global Economics Team,declined 16%from their late October high to 85c/gal following reports thatthe Enterprise export terminal startup may be delayed into 13 Q1.If the start-up Enterprise export terminal is in fact delayed further into the winter,webelieve that upward pricing pres
10、sure(due to the winter heating season)will bemitigated.Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy)is most leveraged to low costpropane feedstock costs.We maintain our equal-weight stance on the sectorWithin in the chemicals sector,our top specialty chemical idea is Ashland(ASH,Buy,TP$85),our top differentiated chemic
11、al idea is Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy,TP$70)and our top commodity chemical idea is LyondellBasell(LYB,Buy,TP$60)._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of i
12、nterest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,Apr-11,Apr-12,Aug-11,May-11,May-12,Aug-12,Feb-12,Feb-11,Mar-11
13、,Mar-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Oct-12,Nov-11,Dec-11,Nov-10,Dec-10,Sep-11,Sep-11,Aug-11,Aug-12,Sep-12,Nov-10,Dec-10,Nov-11,Dec-11,May-11,May-12,Nov-12,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Dec-11,Sep-11,Apr-12,Jan-12,Oct-11,Sep-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,May-12,Aug-12,Sep-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Oct-12,Jul-12,May-1
14、2,Aug-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,Nov-12,Sep-12,Jun-11,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jun-12,Oct-10,Oct-11,Apr-11,Apr-12,Jan-11,Jun-11,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-11,Feb-12,Mar-11,Mar-12,Oct-12,Jul-11,Jul-12,Jul-11,Jul-12,26 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateFigure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for
15、 week ended November 17,2012(Week#46),%YoY,%Sequential,4-week moving averagePrior weekWeek endedPrior weekYTD 2012,(1.5%)(1.2%)(2.9%)2.5%(1.09%),(0.7%)0.4%(4.9%)3.4%,Source:Association of American Railroads and Deutsche BankFigure 2:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits,Weekl
16、y Avg.Cents/Pound,Change from Last Week,Purity EthanePropaneCo-Prod.Int.Lt.NaphthaButaneLight NaphthaGas OilWeighted Avg.Source:IHS Chemical,12.817.148.543.554.970.119.6,(0.2)(1.4)(1.8)1.3(3.2)3.1(0.6),Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America)c/gallon1009080706050403020Source:IHS Chemi
17、calFigure 5:US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb)7570,Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America)c/gallon170160150140130120110100908070Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 6:US Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOBSpot Prices(c/lb)9080,657060,555045,605040,403035,30Source:Bloomberg Fin
18、ance LP,20Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Oct-11,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Jun-1998,Jun-1999,Jun-2000,Aug-12,May-12,Jun-1995,Jun-1996,Jun-1997,Jun-2001,Jun-2002,Jun-2003,Jun-2004,Jun-2005,Jun-2006,Jun-2007,Jun-2008,Jun-2009,Jun-2010,Jun-2011,Jun-2012,Nov-12,Sep-11,Sep-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Ma
19、r-12,Jul-12,Figure 7:Figure 8:China Acetic Acid Spot Prices(CNY/ton)450040003500300025002000Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Figure 8:US ethane-based ethylene production costs areadvantaged vs other regions(c/lb)65605550454035302520151050,Figure 9:US ethane supply has been increasing steadilysince 2005(0
20、00 of bpd)11001000900800700600500400,Western US Ethane,US,US,US Light Northeast,West Southeast,Canada,Weighted Coprod Naphtha,Asia,Europe,Asia,Average,LightNaphtha,Naphtha Naphtha Naphtha,26 November 2012,Chemicals/Commodity,Railcar&PetroChemical Update,Table Of Contents,US Chemicals Railcar Data.6K
21、ey end market data.8,End Market:Agriculture.9End Market:US Construction.11End Market:US Automotive&Electronics.13,US macro indicators.14,US output indicators.14US financial market indicators.16,Overseas macro indicators.17Sector Valuation&Risks.18,Table of Exhibits,Figure 1:Chemicals railcar loading
22、s for week ended November 17,2012(Week#46).2Figure 2:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits.2Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America).2Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America).2Figure 5:US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb).2Figure 6:US
23、 Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb).2Figure 7:Figure 8:China Acetic Acid Spot Prices(CNY/ton).3Figure 8:US ethane-based ethylene production costs are advantaged vs other regions(c/lb).3Figure 9:US ethane supply has been increasing steadily since 2005(000 of bpd).3Figure 10:Che
24、mical distribution channels,by volume and cost.6Figure 11:Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY).6Figure 12:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present).6Figure 13:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcar loadings(2009-Present).7Figure 14:Weekly railcar load
25、ings(000s,2009-Present).7Figure 15:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings,%YoY(2000-Present).7Figure 16:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(000s,2000-Present).7Figure 17:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets.8Figure 18:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are a
26、t the lowest levels since the mid-1970s.9Figure 19:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres).9Figure 20:US Corn Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per acre).10Figure 21:US Soybean Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per acre).10Figure 22:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons).10Figure 23:Arable Land Per Capita.1
27、0Figure 24:Global Corn Yields by Country/Region(bu/acre;2011).10Figure 25:Global Corn Acreage by Region(millions of acres;2011).10Figure 26:US construction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and is beginningto show signs of improvement.11Figure 27:Private non-residential construction ha
28、s surpassed public non-residential,construction.11Figure 28:Household debt to asset ratio returning to trend levels.12Figure 29:Household Debt/GDP ratio also returning to trend levels.12Figure 30:Housing-related consumption remains well above homebuilder sentiment.12Figure 31:Housing starts appear t
29、o have bottomed and have ticked up in 2012.12Figure 32:North American auto builds.13Figure 33:North American printed circuit board book-to-bill ratio.13Figure 34:US Chemicals Shipments on Internal Waterways.14,Figure 35:Chemicals Railcar Loadings,Capacity Utilization,and Industrial Production.14Figu
30、re 36:Growth in railcar loadings is ahead of industrial production.15Figure 37:ECRI Leading Index vs.Industrial Production.15Figure 38:Industrial Production vs.ISM PMI Index.15Figure 39:Industrial Production vs.ISM Mfg.New Orders.15Figure 40:Industrial Production vs.Conference Board Leading Indicato
31、rs.15Figure 41:Conference Board Leading Indicators vs.Real GDP.15Figure 42:Chemicals sector multiples vs the yield curve.16Figure 43:A steeper yield curve has previously led rising chemicals IP.16Figure 44:Eurozone confidence indicators.17Figure 45:ZEW German economic sentiment indicator(12mo m.avg.
32、).17Figure 46:OECD Europe CLI vs Euro area Industrial Production.17,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,26 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateUS Chemicals Railcar
33、DataFigure 10:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and cost,By tonnage(882MM tons),By cost*($40.0 billion),RailTruckWaterbornePipeline,Air&Other,30%48%18%4%,20%67%10%3%,Source:American Chemistry Council.*Cost is cost of transportation,not value of product,2010 dataYear to date,chemical railcar l
34、oadings are down 1.1%Year to date,chemical railcar loadings are down approximately 1.1%.With ethanolcomprising approximately 21%of chemicals loadings and DoE blending up 10%(est.)in11,we estimate that ethanol is boosting 12 US chemicals railcar loadings by roughly2%.Figure 11:Chemical and petroleum
35、railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY)60%50%40%,30%20%10%0%(10%),Week#46,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Chemicals railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Ethanol-driven Increase in loadings(estimated from blending,4-wk m.a.%YoY)Petroleum Products railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Source:Association o
36、f American RailroadsFigure 12:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present)33,00031,00029,00027,00025,000,23,000,Week#46,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep Oct,Nov,Dec,Source:Association of American Railroads,2010,2011,2012,SequentialChange,-,-,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04
37、,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Figure 13:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcarloadings(2009-Present)35%25%15%5%(5%),Figure 14:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Present)34323028
38、26,(15%)(25%),Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Week#46Jun Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov Dec,2422,Week#46,2010,2011,2012,Jan Feb Mar2010,Apr May Jun Jul2011,Aug Sep Oct,NovDec2012,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 15:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings,%YoY(2000-Present)30%20%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%
39、)(40%)Source:Association of American Railroads,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 16:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings(000s,2000-Present)32302826242220Source:Association of American Railroads,-,-,-,-,-,-,26 November 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateKey
40、end market dataFigure 17:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets,Company3M,Auto&Transport11%,Construction4%,Electronics10%,CommentsIndustrial 25%;Healthcare 18%;Consumer 15%;Energy 3%,Safety&Security 14%,Air Products,15%,Energy 24%,Genl Mfg 15%,Chemicals 17%,Metals 10%,Medical 7%,
41、Food 3%,Others 10%,Airgas,2%,13%,Industrial Repair&Maintenance:27%Retail&,Wholesale:4%Other 3%Medical:9%;Food;6%;Analytical:2%Utilities:2%,Petrochemical:7%“Auto&Transport”is onlyTransport and no Auto,Albemarle,6%,9%,15%,Refining 32%,Pharma/Ag 12%,Industrial 10%,Packaging 9%,Oilfield 4%,Other 3%,Ashl
42、and,8%,17%,Coatings 6%,Lubricants 15%,Chemicals 5%,Pulp/paper 12%,Energy 3%,Regulated Ind 3%,Marine 4%,Infrastructure 2%,Packaging/converting 3%,Retail consumer 3%,Personal Care3%,Medical 2%,Others 14%,CabotCelanese,15%11%,10%3%,10%,Tire 45%;Others 20%Filter Media 22%;Paints Consumer&Medical,Apps 12
43、%;Consumer Paper&Packaging 3%,Cytec,17%,47%,Chemical Processing:13%,Mineral Processing 7%;Plastic:4%;,Adhesives:3%;Other:9%“Auto&Transport”consists ofAutomotive only,DuPont,20%,10%,9%,Agriculture/food 21%;Food Ingred,Ref Other,packaging 3%;Chemicals/petchem 5%;Textile/apparel 5%;Plastics 3%;Other in
44、dustrial 7%;Aerospace 4%;Paper 1%;Healthcare 1%;Personal care 3%.“Construction”includesresidential,commercial construction”,Ferro,10%,34%,21%,Appliances 8%;Containers 8%;Household furnishings 7%;,Industrial 6%;Others 6%,HB Fuller,10%,Adhesives:72%;Paints:8%;Packaging:4%;Insulating glass:4%;Consumer:
45、2%,LyondellBasell,7%,10%,Refining/Fuels:35%;Packaging:18%;Consumer:12%;Coatings:,4%;Textiles/Furnishings:4%;Other:10%.“Auto&Transport”consists of Transportation only.“Construction”consists of“Building&Construction”.,PPG,30%,27%,Consumer goods 21%;Industrial goods 10%;Chemical products:,5%;Aerospace
46、4%;Marine 3%(Auto consists of OEM 19%,Auto aftermarket 11%),Praxair,7%,Manufacturing 24%;Chemicals 10%;Energy 13%;Food andBeverage 7%;Aerospace 2%;Healthcare 10%;Metals 16%;Other 11%,Rockwood Holdings,11%,13%,8.00%,Metal Treatment 17%;Chemicals/Plastics 14%;Life Sciences,12%;Consumer Products 2%;Pap
47、er 2%;Environmental 2%;Other 8%,Valspar,3%,30%,Industrial 36%,Packaging 21%,Other 10%“Auto&Transport”is,automotive refinish and“Construction”is architectural paintsSource:Company data,Deutsche Bank estimates,12/13E,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,9
48、8/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,End Market:AgricultureFigure 18:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970sSource:Deutsche BankFigure 19:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres)10595857565554535,Source:Deutsche Bank,USDA,US Corn Acreage,US Soy Acreage
49、,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,12/13E,12/13E,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/91,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,26 November 2012Chemicals/Commodi
50、tyRailcar&PetroChemical Update,Figure 20:US Corn Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per acre)1801601401201008060Source:Deutsche Bank,USDAFigure 22:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons)MM Tons,Figure 21:US Soybean Yields(1970-2013E;bushels peracre)50454035302520Source:Deutsche Bank,USDAFigure 23:Arable Land Per Ca
