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1、Top picks,Buy,Buy,Buy,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,North AmericaUnited StatesIndustrialsChemicals/Commodity,PeriodicalRailcar&PetroChemical,Date30 December 2012,UpdateDavid Begleiter,CFA,US chemical shipments up 3.7.Ethaneprices rose 1c/galRailcar loadings 4-week moving avg.up 3.7%,weekly loadings
2、up 5.6%The 4-week moving average of chemical railcar loadings increased 3.7%inWeek#51(ended December 22)vs.a 3.1%increase the prior week.LoadingYTD are down 0.65%.Chemical railcar loadings represent 30%of total USchemical shipment tonnage(followed by trucks,barges,and pipelines),offeringa measuremen
3、t of broader chemical industry activity and demand trends.Themore volatile measure of weekly loadings increased 5.6%YoY(versus a 1.9%increase in the prior week)and increased 6.2%sequentially(vs.a 1.7%decrease in the prior week).Ethane prices rose 1c/gal last week to 25c/gal(down 69%YTD)Ethane prices
4、 rose 1c/gal last week to 25 c/gal while spot ethylene prices rose7c/lb to 61c/lb.The combined effect was an increase in spot ethylene marginsby 7c/lb to 45c/lb.Polymer grade(PG)propylene spot prices for Decemberrose to 63c/lb,though in a light market environment,while January contractprices are exp
5、ected to emerge at 62c/lb.,Research Analyst(+1)212 250-Ramanan SivalingamAssociate Analyst()212 250-Jermaine BrownResearch Associate(+1)212 250-3624jermaine-Ashland(ASH.N),USD79.06LyondellBasell(LYB.N),USD55.51Eastman Chemical(EMN.N),USD66.05,The Williams Geismar,LA ethylene facility(2%of NA capacit
6、y)was takenoffline last week which resulted in a force majeure declaration.Westlake planson taking their Petro 2 ethylene facility(1.9%of NA capacity)down during themiddle of January.We expect ethylene capacity outages to decreasesequentially in December(1.6%of NA capacity offline),vs 5.1%offline in
7、November.For propylene,the Petrologistics propane dehydrogenation(PDH)unit(2.7%of NA capacity)experienced an unplanned shutdown on Dec 17 andis expected to be down for three weeks.,(GDP,Real YoY)US 0.4%Euroland 0.6%Japan-0.7%G7 0.3%Asia ex-Japan 6.8%China 9.0%,2008,2009-2.6%-4.1%-5.3%-3.5%5.7%9.1%,2
8、0103.0%1.9%4.1%2.9%9.4%10.3%,2011 2012E 2013E1.8%2.2%1.9%1.4%-0.5%-0.3%-0.7%2.0%0.6%1.4%1.4%1.2%7.3%5.9%6.7%9.2%7.7%8.2%,IHS expects ethane prices to increase to 28c/gal in January and 30-35c/gal in,Global,2.7%,-0.9%,5.1%,3.6%2.9%3.2%,February on higher propane prices(seasonally higher due to increa
9、sed heating,Source:DB Global Economics Team,requirements).We note however that propane prices have declined 10%fromtheir late October high to 90c/gal following reports that the Enterprise exportterminal startup may be delayed into Q113.Dow(DOW,Hold,28-Dec CP$31.62)and Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy)are th
10、e most leveraged names inUS chemicals to propane costs.We maintain our equal-weight stance on the sectorWithin in the chemicals sector,our top specialty chemical idea is Ashland(ASH,Buy,TP$90),our top differentiated chemical idea is Eastman Chemical(EMN,Buy,TP$80)and our top commodity chemical idea
11、is LyondellBasell(LYB,Buy,TP$60)._Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shouldconsi
12、der this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.MICA(P)072/04/2012.,18-Apr-10,18-Apr-11,18-Aug-11,18-Apr-12,18-Aug-12,18-Aug-10,18-Feb-10,18-Feb-11,18-Feb-12,18-Oct-11,18-Oct-10,18-Dec-11,18-Oct-12,Nov-12,18-
13、Dec-09,18-Dec-10,18-Oct-11,18-Apr-10,18-Dec-11,18-Apr-12,18-Apr-11,18-Oct-12,18-Oct-10,18-Aug-11,18-Aug-12,18-Aug-10,18-Dec-12,18-Dec-09,18-Dec-10,18-Jun-10,18-Jun-11,18-Feb-12,18-Feb-10,18-Feb-11,18-Jun-12,Oct-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,Dec-11,Sep-11,Apr-12,Jan-12,Aug-12,Jun-12,Oct-11,Sep-11,Nov-11,Dec-11,De
14、c-11,Apr-12,Sep-12,Oct-12,May-12,Aug-12,Nov-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,May-12,Sep-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Oct-12,Jul-12,18-Dec-12,18-Jun-10,18-Jun-11,18-Jun-12,30 December 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateFigure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended December 22,2012(Week#
15、51),%YoY,%Sequential,4-week moving averagePrior weekWeek endedPrior weekYTD 2012,3.7%3.1%5.6%1.9%(0.65%),4.8%0.8%6.2%(1.7%),Source:Association of American Railroads and Deutsche BankFigure 2:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits,Weekly Avg.Cents/Pound,Change from Last Week,Pu
16、rity EthanePropaneCo-Prod.Int.Lt.NaphthaButaneLight NaphthaGas OilWeighted Avg.Source:IHS Chemical,10.712.546.846.253.764.516.5,0.42.52.2(1.3)2.4(0.1)0.8,Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America)c/gallon100908070605040302010Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 5:US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FO
17、B Spot Prices(c/lb)7570,Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America)c/gallon2001801601401201008060Source:IHS ChemicalFigure 6:US Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOBSpot Prices(c/lb)9080,657060,555045,605040,403035,30Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,20Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Oct-11,Oct-11,No
18、v-11,Dec-11,Apr-12,Oct-12,Nov-12,Jun-1998,Jun-1999,Aug-12,May-12,Jun-1995,Jun-1996,Jun-1997,Jun-2000,Jun-2001,Dec-12,Jun-2002,Sep-11,Sep-12,Jan-12,Jun-12,Feb-12,Mar-12,Jul-12,Jun-2003,Jun-2004,Jun-2005,Jun-2006,Jun-2007,Jun-2008,Jun-2009,Jun-2010,Jun-2011,Jun-2012,Figure 7:Figure 8:China Acetic Acid
19、 Spot Prices(CNY/ton)450040003500300025002000Source:Bloomberg Finance LP,Figure 8:US ethane-based ethylene production costs areadvantaged vs other regions(c/lb)605550454035302520151050,Figure 9:US ethane supply has been increasing steadilysince 2005(000 of bpd)11001000900800700600500400,Western US E
20、thane,US,US,US Light Northeast,West Southeast,Canada,Weighted Coprod Naphtha,Asia,Europe,Asia,Average,LightNaphtha,Naphtha Naphtha Naphtha,30 December 2012,Chemicals/Commodity,Railcar&PetroChemical Update,Table Of Contents,US Chemicals Railcar Data.6Key end market data.8,End Market:Agriculture.9End
21、Market:US Construction.11End Market:US Automotive&Electronics.16,US macro indicators.17,US output indicators.17US financial market indicators.19,Overseas macro indicators.20Sector Valuation&Risks.21,Table of Exhibits,Figure 1:Chemicals railcar loadings for week ended December 15,2012(Week#50).2Figur
22、e 2:U.S.Ethylene Production Cash Costs-Spot Co-Production Credits.2Figure 3:Mt.Belvieu Ethane Purity Prices(North America).2Figure 4:Mt.Belvieu Propane Non-TET(North America).2Figure 5:US Ethylene Pipeline Gulf Coast FOB Spot Prices(c/lb).2Figure 6:US Chemical Grade Propylene Gulf Coast FOB Spot Pri
23、ces(c/lb).2Figure 7:Figure 8:China Acetic Acid Spot Prices(CNY/ton).3Figure 8:US ethane-based ethylene production costs are advantaged vs other regions(c/lb).3Figure 9:US ethane supply has been increasing steadily since 2005(000 of bpd).3Figure 10:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and cost.6F
24、igure 11:Chemical and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY).6Figure 12:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present).6Figure 13:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcar loadings(2009-Present).7Figure 14:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,2009-Present).7Figure 15:Four-week movi
25、ng average of weekly railcar loadings,%YoY(2000-Present).7Figure 16:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(000s,2000-Present).7Figure 17:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets.8Figure 18:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970s.9Figure 1
26、9:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres).9Figure 20:US Corn Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per acre).10Figure 21:US Soybean Yields(1970-2013E;bushels per acre).10Figure 22:Global Corn Consumption(MM tons).10Figure 23:Arable Land Per Capita.10Figure 24:Global Corn Yields by Country/Region(b
27、u/acre;2011).10Figure 25:Global Corn Acreage by Region(millions of acres;2011).10Figure 26:US construction data has stabilized since record lows in mid-09 and is beginningto show signs of improvement.11Figure 27:Private non-residential construction has surpassed public non-residential,construction.1
28、1Figure 28:Household debt to asset ratio returning to trend levels.12Figure 29:Household Debt/GDP ratio also returning to trend levels.12Figure 30:Housing-related consumption remains well above homebuilder sentiment.12Figure 31:Housing starts appear to have bottomed and have ticked up in 2012.12Figu
29、re 32:Homebuilder sentiment index suggests that housing could add 1 percent toGDP over the next 12 months.13Figure 33:The homebuilder sentiment index suggests.13,Figure 34:Consumer purchasing plan:home.13Figure 35:Industry sentiment indicators trending up strongly.13Figure 36:Close to record-high le
30、vels of affordability.14Figure 37:Real resid investment contribution to real GDP growth.14Figure 38:components of residential investment that are adding to GDP growth.14Figure 39:Traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.14Figure 40:Conference board consumer confidence survey:plans to buy a new hom
31、e withinsix months.15Figure 41:US home prices rising steadily.15Figure 42:North American auto builds.16Figure 43:North American printed circuit board book-to-bill ratio.16Figure 44:US Chemicals Shipments on Internal Waterways.17Figure 45:Chemicals Railcar Loadings,Capacity Utilization,and Industrial
32、 Production.17Figure 46:Growth in railcar loadings is ahead of industrial production.18Figure 47:ECRI Leading Index vs.Industrial Production.18Figure 48:Industrial Production vs.ISM PMI Index.18Figure 49:Industrial Production vs.ISM Mfg.New Orders.18Figure 50:Industrial Production vs.Conference Boar
33、d Leading Indicators.18Figure 51:Conference Board Leading Indicators vs.Real GDP.18Figure 52:Chemicals sector multiples vs the yield curve.19Figure 53:A steeper yield curve has previously led rising chemicals IP.19Figure 54:Eurozone confidence indicators.20Figure 55:ZEW German economic sentiment ind
34、icator(12mo m.avg.).20Figure 56:OECD Europe CLI vs Euro area Industrial Production.20,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42,44,46,48,50,52,30 December 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&PetroChemical UpdateUS
35、Chemicals Railcar DataFigure 10:Chemical distribution channels,by volume and cost,By tonnage(882MM tons),By cost*($40.0 billion),RailTruckWaterbornePipeline,Air&Other,30%48%18%4%,20%67%10%3%,Source:American Chemistry Council.*Cost is cost of transportation,not value of product,2010 dataYear to date,
36、chemical railcar loadings are down 0.7%Year to date,chemical railcar loadings are down approximately 0.7%.With ethanolcomprising approximately 21%of chemicals loadings and DoE blending up 10%(est.)in11,we estimate that ethanol is boosting 12 US chemicals railcar loadings by roughly2%.Figure 11:Chemi
37、cal and petroleum railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.,%YoY)70%60%50%40%,30%20%10%0%(10%),Week#51,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Chemicals railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY)Ethanol-driven Increase in loadings(estimated from blending,4-wk m.a.%YoY)Petroleum Products railcar loadings(4-wk m.a.%YoY
38、)Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 12:Four-week moving average of weekly railcar loadings(2009-Present)33,00031,00029,00027,00025,000,23,000,Week#51,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep Oct,Nov,Dec,Source:Association of American Railroads,2010,2011,2012,SequentialChange,-,-,Jan-00,Jan-01
39、,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Jan-00,Jan-01,Jan-02,Jan-03,Jan-04,Jan-05,Jan-06,Jan-07,Jan-08,Jan-09,Jan-10,Jan-11,Jan-12,Figure 13:Sequential growth in weekly chemical railcarloadings(2009-Present)35%25%15%5%(5%),Figure 14:Weekly railcar loadings(000s,
40、2009-Present)3432302826,(15%)(25%),Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Week#51Jun Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov Dec,2422,Week#51,2010,2011,2012,Jan Feb Mar2010,Apr May Jun Jul2011,Aug Sep Oct,NovDec2012,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 15:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings,%YoY(2000-Present)30%2
41、0%10%0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)Source:Association of American Railroads,Source:Association of American RailroadsFigure 16:Four-week moving average of weekly railcarloadings(000s,2000-Present)32302826242220Source:Association of American Railroads,-,-,-,-,-,-,30 December 2012Chemicals/CommodityRailcar&Pet
42、roChemical UpdateKey end market dataFigure 17:US chemical companies revenue exposures to key end markets,Company3M,Auto&Transport11%,Construction4%,Electronics10%,CommentsIndustrial 25%;Healthcare 18%;Consumer 15%;Energy 3%,Safety&Security 14%,Air Products,15%,Energy 24%,Genl Mfg 15%,Chemicals 17%,M
43、etals 10%,Medical 7%,Food 3%,Others 10%,Airgas,2%,13%,Industrial Repair&Maintenance:27%Retail&,Wholesale:4%Other 3%Medical:9%;Food;6%;Analytical:2%Utilities:2%,Petrochemical:7%“Auto&Transport”is onlyTransport and no Auto,Albemarle,6%,9%,15%,Refining 32%,Pharma/Ag 12%,Industrial 10%,Packaging 9%,Oilf
44、ield 4%,Other 3%,Ashland,8%,17%,Coatings 6%,Lubricants 15%,Chemicals 5%,Pulp/paper 12%,Energy 3%,Regulated Ind 3%,Marine 4%,Infrastructure 2%,Packaging/converting 3%,Retail consumer 3%,Personal Care3%,Medical 2%,Others 14%,CabotCelanese,15%11%,10%3%,10%,Tire 45%;Others 20%Filter Media 22%;Paints Con
45、sumer&Medical,Apps 12%;Consumer Paper&Packaging 3%,Cytec,17%,47%,Chemical Processing:13%,Mineral Processing 7%;Plastic:4%;,Adhesives:3%;Other:9%“Auto&Transport”consists ofAutomotive only,DuPont,20%,10%,9%,Agriculture/food 21%;Food Ingred,Ref Other,packaging 3%;Chemicals/petchem 5%;Textile/apparel 5%
46、;Plastics 3%;Other industrial 7%;Aerospace 4%;Paper 1%;Healthcare 1%;Personal care 3%.“Construction”includesresidential,commercial construction”,Ferro,10%,34%,21%,Appliances 8%;Containers 8%;Household furnishings 7%;,Industrial 6%;Others 6%,HB Fuller,10%,Adhesives:72%;Paints:8%;Packaging:4%;Insulati
47、ng glass:4%;Consumer:2%,LyondellBasell,7%,10%,Refining/Fuels:35%;Packaging:18%;Consumer:12%;Coatings:,4%;Textiles/Furnishings:4%;Other:10%.“Auto&Transport”consists of Transportation only.“Construction”consists of“Building&Construction”.,PPG,30%,27%,Consumer goods 21%;Industrial goods 10%;Chemical pr
48、oducts:,5%;Aerospace 4%;Marine 3%(Auto consists of OEM 19%,Auto aftermarket 11%),Praxair,7%,Manufacturing 24%;Chemicals 10%;Energy 13%;Food andBeverage 7%;Aerospace 2%;Healthcare 10%;Metals 16%;Other 11%,Rockwood Holdings,11%,13%,8.00%,Metal Treatment 17%;Chemicals/Plastics 14%;Life Sciences,12%;Con
49、sumer Products 2%;Paper 2%;Environmental 2%;Other 8%,Valspar,3%,30%,Industrial 36%,Packaging 21%,Other 10%“Auto&Transport”is,automotive refinish and“Construction”is architectural paintsSource:Company data,Deutsche Bank estimates,12/13E,70/71,72/73,74/75,76/77,78/79,80/81,82/83,84/85,86/87,88/89,90/9
50、1,92/93,94/95,96/97,98/99,00/01,02/03,04/05,06/07,08/09,10/11,End Market:AgricultureFigure 18:Corn stocks-to-use ratios are at the lowest levels since the mid-1970sSource:Deutsche BankFigure 19:US Corn and Soy Acreage(1970-2013E;millions of acres)10595857565554535,Source:Deutsche Bank,USDA,US Corn A
