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1、-,/,),002457,2013,1,14,9.4914.00,PCCP,2012,4.7430,201325,PCCP,021-S1010511020001,021-68768162,20%,50%,PVC,2012-2020 2013,20202012,3,7.9,2.4,2011,180%,6.75,20136.75,2012,Wind,2013,2013,1,2012-3,2012/2013/2014,EPS,0.28/0.54,/0.75,0.28/0.42/0.56,2013,25,PE,14,2010852,2011995,2012E786,2013E1493,2014E196
2、4,YoY%YoY%EPS%,ROE%,3.212335.90.3733.88.610.23,16.8120-2.30.3628.07.86.88,-21.095-21.00.2828.15.94.82,90.018191.90.5429.710.35.26,31.625038.10.7529.712.75.87,2013,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,3,4 A,002457,PCCP,.1,.3.4.5.1.1.1.1.2.2.2.3.3.4.4.5.5,1,/,.3,2 2012,.4.5.61,2010/02,2010/04,2010/06,2010/08
3、,2010/10,2010/12,2011/03,2011/05,2011/07,2011/09,2011/11,2012/02,2012/04,2012/06,2012/08,002457PCCP,2011,1,10,20201,201010,4,2,10%,2011,6%5%4%3%2%,5.0%,3.0%,4000350030002500200015001000500,%,3530252015105,1%0%,1.1%,0.9%,E,0,0,PCCPPCCPPCCP2012PCCPPCCP,3,4,2013,2014,10,2012,2013,PCCP,20121,0024576,4.7
4、45,30,4.7425,6,2013,PCCP,72,00245750%,1000,5,28%,PVC,PE,1,8,4,/,9,20%,2000200620101,2012,1300,2012201238%,80%,12-20,2020,10,0.55,3,3,002457,102013,wind20082009,11,2008,20102011,2011,2012,2012,201220122011,PCCP,2.4,29%,6.756.75,7.920132012 2.4,180%201320132 2012,101011,25269,1,1,0.862.321.13,2012.11.
5、10-2013.12.312013.5.30-2014.6.302012.11.12-2013.6.30,11,12,1,37,0.71,11111111,17252526,21,35,1.090.510.910.38,2012.12.20-2013.10.202013.1.19-2013.10.192013.1.19-2013.11.192013.1.10-2013.9.10,7.92,201179.6%,4,(,(,(,(,/,),(,/,),(,/,),(,(,(,002457,12,13,9,16,100%,8765,7.92,1412108,80%60%40%,4321,3.53,2
6、.1,0.95,1.23,642,20%0%-20%,0,0,-40%,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,3,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,(km),200,240,170,190,260,PCPPCCPRCPPVCPE,/km)(km)/km)(km)/km),50000037.00%160170000039.00%20048000040.00%30000900030.50%50001200023.00%,50500032.00%200170000032.00%24048000
7、030.00%32000900026.00%65001200020.00%,50500032.00%150160000032.00%20050000029.00%25000880028.00%60001150022.00%,50200031.00%470160000032.00%23050000031.00%29000890028.00%70001180023.00%,50000030.00%600159000031.50%30050000031.00%35000910029.00%100001250023.00%,3000,6000,HDPE,(km)/km),2100038.00%1100
8、0055023%,2100038.00%16000055023%,596217.50%4918,715417.00%5938,858517.00%7125,944317.00%7838,1038717.00%8622,5,002457,2012-2014,EPS,2013,0.28/0.54/0.7525 PE,14,0.28/0.42/0.56,4 A,EPS,PE,12E,13E,14E,12E,13E,14E,002205.SZ002619.SZ300198.SZ,12.610.4537.23,0.160.281,0.430.491.5,0.640.621.72,793737,29212
9、5,201722,51,25,19,wind,2013,1,11,6,002457,2010852564,2011995717,2012E786565,2013E1,4931,050,2014E1,9581,377,2010785329,2011612332,2012E826262,2013E918487,2014E1,205638,33.81%27.97%28.06%29.65%29.71%,305,477,376,485,636,5677.85%607.08%2,7636.33%636.35%-12,6546.90%698.80%-10,11976.50%1127.50%-6,141216
10、.20%1276.50%8,1261,544173105933,1351,556209107720,1091,573223109513,1992,089220109715,2612,7402151010016,0.26%,-1.16%-1.24%-0.39%,0.40%,275,316,341,343,341,0147,0146,0110,0216,0297,1,8195,1,8735,1,9145,2,432208,3,081545,17.25%14.70%14.02%14.47%15.15%,82,92,73,135,177,7215227,2314524,9111824,9122443,
11、9130555,252339014,214311015,196274016,300644017,3661,089018,17.38%16.57%20.00%19.00%18.00%,14,15,16,17,18,3123,1120,095,0181,0250,353140,326223,290335,660335,1,106335,14.39%12.03%12.03%12.15%12.76%201020112012E2013E2014E,9851,428381,819,9321,537101,873,8211,614101,914,8211,762102,432,8211,965103,081
12、,123,120,95,181,250,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,3,1,0,0,0,%,23-18910,27-21610,28168-19,31-2717,34-27222,16.95.24.8,16.8-0.4-2.3,-21.0-24.7-21.0,90.096.091.9,31.237.437.7,-30,-58,272,-52,34,%,-46,-63,-52,-32,-32,33.8,28.0,28.1,29.7,29.7,0017,00-3,000,000,000,EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin,18.321.014.4,14.6
13、17.312.0,11.615.212.0,14.917.012.2,16.318.012.8,-29,-66,-52,-32,-32,%,857-108,00,01,0204,0338,8.66.9,8.16.6,6.05.0,10.78.4,13.49.1,-38,-42,-18,-34,-47,%,12723663,1-42-165,10-7213,617693,-8284286,19.417.434.2,17.416.618.6,15.120.018.6,27.219.018.6,35.918.018.6,7,-,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts
14、 primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certifythat:(i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securitiesand issuers;and(ii)no part of the analysts compen
15、sation was,is,or will be directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,6,300300,5%-10%,20%5%,2,300,6300,300300300300,10%10%-10%10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures f
16、or Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company(“CITIC Securities”,regulated by the China SecuritiesRegulatory Commission.Securities Business License Number:Z20374000).This report is being distributed in the United States by CITICSecurities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a)(2)under the U.S.Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to“major U.S.institutional investors”as,defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder.,“,”,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a)(2),15a-6,
