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1、,CHAPTER 8 Employment,income creation and The balance of tourism payment,卞显红旅游经济学,Bian Xian-hong Ph.D.Associate professorJuly 2009,Not only is the size of national income,including per capita measures,important to an economy,but so is its composition and its allocation(distribution),as is demonstrat
2、ed by Figure 8.1.不仅国民收入多少而且国民收入的构成与分配对国民经济都具有重大意义。A large and diversified economy will have many productive sectors and little sectoral concentration.It will be less vulnerable to cycles and specific slumps than a small economy based on few sectors.This has a particular importance for the value obta
3、ined from developing tourism.,1 The distribution of national income,Part Employment,income creation,The way in which national income is then split up also helps determine the size of the economy.收入分配的方式对国民收入的大小也有影响。For example,two economies with similar populations may start with similar GDP in time
4、 period 1.Suppose in country A the distribution of incomes is very even,as is the distribution of shared wealth in productive capital.,People are likely to spend and save in similar ways,other things being equal,and economic growth should smoothly reflect the countrys marginal propensities to consum
5、e and save.那么A国的国民经济增长必定很平稳，它反映了该国的消费和储蓄的边际倾向。Suppose,however,that country Bs production is in the hands of few individuals or businesses,and that it is highly automated,requiring plenty of capital but little labour.,Figure 8:Composition and distribution of national income,Economic growth probably d
6、epends on export markets or reallocative government fiscal policies出口市场或政府的财政再分配政策;propensities to save amongst the majority of the population are probably zero,and imbalance-based political instability政治的不稳定性 makes prediction of country Bs future national income very risky.Whilst classical economic
7、 theory assumes that income distribution will,through market forces,correct itself to reflect the marginal productivities of factors of production,economists have shown that this does not always happen(Kaldor 1955).Because of market imperfections,social systems,regional imbalances or other reasons,a
8、 steady state income distribution can exist which does not reflect marginal productivities.未能反映边际生产率。Policies for development,including tourism development,may then promote not just income generation,but normative goals of income distribution.发展政策，包括旅游政策，可能不仅仅是为了增加国民收入，也可能具有促进收入分配更加平等这类规范性的目标。,乡村旅游发
9、展对促进国民收入再分配起到非常重要的作用，可以探讨我国乡村旅游发展对乡村居民、农村社会经济发展的重要作用。,In the above contexts,travel and tourism has a significant impact on economies.First,it is a sector of relatively recent development in many economies,and is showing growth in most.Most countries now identify travel and tourism as a discrete prod
10、uctive sector of their economies,许多国家都把旅游行业当作经济中的一个独立的生产行业which was unusual until the 1960s or 1970s.Secondly,because travel and tourism can assume many different forms,from backpackers meet the locals experiences through business trading and convention centres to segregated exclusive up-market reso
11、rts,an economy may need only minor structural changes of resource reallocation into tourism.由于旅游从体验当地生活的背包旅游、到商务、会展旅游，以及一些高端旅游胜地旅游，形式多种多样，因此政府只需把资源分配作些微调给旅游业就可以取得很大的收益。,2 The direct value of tourism to employment of factors,This attracts governments looking for development opportunities.Thirdly,tour
12、ism can often be developed specifically in locations and with resources which have little alternative economic use(that is,low opportunity costs),such as picturesque landscape locations with no mineral resources and little agricultural value.This allows the direct employment of land as a factor at l
13、ittle marginal cost.既没有矿产资源也没有耕作价值的风景名胜资源来发展旅游，这样的土地作为生产要素，直接就业边际成本很低。The direct(and indirect)impacts of tourism on an economy are one of the most intensively researched areas of tourism analysis(Mathieson and Wall 1982,Eadington and Redman 1991).In particular;many writers have concentrated on local
14、 impact studies and tourism less-developed countries.There are some general principles which apply in virtually all cases,which will be examined here.,Within an economy,domestic tourism expenditure normally counts as part of C+I消费、投资,and therefore is principally a reallocation of consumers or produc
15、ers spending from something else.It does not therefore provide an injection of fresh demand and money.在一个经济系统内，国内旅游花费通常记作消费和投资的一部分。因此，原则上，它是消费者或生产者其它支出的再分配。因而，他并没有给经济系统注入新的需求和货币。The reallocative effects will depend on answers to the following questions:1 What was the opportunity use of the cash spen
16、t on tourism?i.e.what would tourists have done with their money if they did not make tourist trips?2 Do tourists spread out their spending spatially(regionally)?3 Are the destination areas generally less well off than generating areas in terms of incomes and employment?4 Do trips induce tourists to
17、return permanently?,2.1 The direct value of domestic tourism,The first question provides a key to the value of domestic tourism in a couple of important ways.First,if the alternative to domestic tourism were foreign tourism expenditure,then by spending domestically there would be a form of import su
18、bstitution进口替代 reducing the leakage of M and actually increasing C+I.This directly benefits national income.The same is true if the alternative to a domestic trip were spending on imported goods.Secondly,if,rather than buying tourism,people bought goods and services at home(such as home improvements
19、 or entertainment),income and wealth would tend to be concentrated in the areas which would otherwise be generators.如果旅游这不是购买旅游产品而是购买国内生产的产品和服务（如家庭用娱乐性商品），那么收入和财富将集中到客源地。The answers to the second and third questions carry this a little further.,If domestic tourists spread their activity spatially,th
20、ere is a redistributive effect on income and employment.如果国内游客的旅游活动在空间上是分散的，那么国内旅游将具有收入和就业的再分配效应。Concentration or localization of tourists can be measured(Defert 1966,Pearce 1987),and highly localized domestic tourism tends to create local excess demand,price increases(see later),and may actually re
21、duce real incomes in destination areas.旅游者的集中度或者地理集中指数是可以测量的。国内旅游具有很高的地理集中指数。If destination areas start with underemployment and comparatively low incomes,tourism will create employment and may raise incomes,depending on the structure of the tourism labour market.如果起初目的地存在失业而且收入水平较低，那么旅游可能会创造就业和增加收入
22、，这主要取决于劳动力市场的结构。,This means:there can be a reduction in government spending(G)as unemployment payouts are reduced there may be an increase in taxation revenue(T)from newly earned incomes,although this depends on threshold tax rates and the opportunity use of tourists expenditure 由于收入基数增加，政府税收收入可能会增加
23、，它取决于税收门槛和旅游消费支出的机会用途。marginal propensities to save may fall slightly,as tourists spending transfers income to less well-off recipients who would tend to have a higher propensity to consume.储蓄边际倾向可能会略微下降，因为游客花费将收入转移到更贫穷者的手中，他们有更高的消费倾向。,The fourth question frequently provides a key to long-term devel
24、opment of tourism destinations and hence to the spatial redistribution of economic activity.第四个问题为认识旅游目的地长期发展提供了线索，因而也为旅游经济活动的空间再配置提供了线索。Tourists have visited coastal destinations in many countries,liked them,and retired there-providing a permanent demand base.Others who are entrepreneurs in footloo
25、se industries 随遇而安的行业may decide to relocate their businesses to pleasant areas they have visited as tourists;an example is the relocation of research,computer and electronics firms to California and Florida(Doering 1976).Such moves in the United Kingdom,backed by government policy,have decentralised
26、 economic activity from London and other major cities,and unless firms have taken all their staff with them the moves have created local employment,frequently at national award wage rates.,The main direct benefit to national income of inbound international tourism is the injection of money and deman
27、d from an external source.入境旅游对国民收入的直接影响是货币注入和来自国外需求的增加。This is equivalent to an increase in exports(X)regardless of whether the spenders are recreational or business tourists.这等同于出口增加，而不管花钱者是消遣游客还是商务游客。The major difference between tourism revenue and goods export revenue is that the latter often ge
28、nerates an overseas credit.-similar to an increase in I,whereas in most cases tourism expenditure physically takes place inside the receiving country on goods and services which are normally regarded as consumption items.而大多数的旅游花费发生在国内，即过国外游客接受本国商品与服务时发生。Other than international balance of payments
29、effects,two other major impacts may result from inbound tourism:demonstration effects示范效应pressure on price levels.通货膨胀压力,2.2 The direct value of international tourism,Demonstration effects from international tourism have been studied over a long period(for example,Bryden 1973).Particularly in less d
30、eveloped countries,residents observe and learn the lifestyles and consumption patterns of inbound tourists,and may seek to emulate them.特别是在经济欠发达国家，居民关注并模仿入境游客的生活方式与消费模式，甚至要赶超他们。In economic terms this may engender changes in consumption patterns,and result in,say,a higher propensity to import those
31、consumer items which tourists are seen to have.Therefore M rises and partially offsets the value of increased X,a phenomenon researchers have noted in places as distinct as the Caribbean,the Canary Islands and Fiji.因此，进口上升，抵消了增加的出口的价值。,Where tourists come from a country with generally higher incomes
32、 and price levels than their destination,they may bring price pressures with them.当游客来自收入水平和价格水平都更高的国家，那么入境旅游会给目的地带来通货膨胀的压力。This is a form of imported inflation进口型通货膨胀,but differs from the normal concept(that high priced imports increase local costs),as it works through extra demand pressures and th
33、e demonstration effect.它与通常的概念有所不同，因为它产生于额外需求的压力和示范效应。Figure 8.2 shows the effect on the local general price equilibrium if large numbers of tourists arrive.,Figure 8.2 Tourism一imported inflation,In the absence of international tourism in this economy,the general equilibrium is at PoQo.The arrival o
34、f relatively rich tourists shifts demand from DD to D1D1,moving the economy to a new equilibrium at P1Q1-more products are traded,but at a higher price.Unfortunately,local consumers are disadvantaged,as they may now only have quantity Q2 for themselves at price level P1.In practice,locals probably a
35、lso receive these higher prices to the extent that they are responsible for local supply,and there will be increased employment and income.实际上，在某种程度上，当地居民可能乐于接受这些较高的价格水平，毕竟是他们负责当地的商品和服务的供应，较高的价格水平可能会促进就业和增加收入。However,at least some of this well-being is likely to disappear in higher prices,and locals
36、 wishing to sustain their living standards may force prices(and total demand)up yet further as they compete with tourists for available supplies.,旅游目的地旅游发展，尤其是入境旅游业的发展，在一定程度上会带来当地社会经济环境的变化，尤其是带来物价与消费的提升，并给当地居民带来影响，请你搜集资料，探讨旅游目的地入境旅游发展对当地居民生活的影响。,This has happened with foodstuffs in many parts of the
37、 world,with property for second homes in places such as Spain,Wales,Denmark,the Caribbean and Hawaii,and even with everyday artefacts日常的人工制品 which become souvenirs.One result of rich tourist arrivals may be the development of dual markets with separate prices for tourists and locals.富裕游客的抵达，一个可能的结果是
38、双重市场的发展，它将针对游客的价值系统和针对本地居民的价格系统分隔开。Sometimes these are officially sanctioned,as with property rentals in many states;elsewhere dual markets may develop informally through product differentiation(souvenir hawkers;congregating only at tourist attractions and selling at relatively high prices despite b
39、argaining),or through spot the tourist methods of price discrimination.或者通过某种方法实行价格歧视。In this way incomes and employment are generated without exposure to inflated prices.通过这种方式，增加收入和创造就业，但是并没有带来通货膨胀压力。,Finally,there may be a range of individual direct impacts in specific circumstances;a good exampl
40、e is the contribution to taxation(T)made by tourists to Monaco who gamble in the Monte Carlo casino.In fact this contribution,which is mainly from international(non=Monegasque resident)tourists,provides all of the government revenue required in the state.事实上，主要来自于国际游客（非摩洛哥居民）的赌博税收收入足以提供该国政府的所必需的收入。,
41、Very few researchers have attempted to analyse the value,if any,of tourism to generating economies.Certainly any international tourism activity means a reduction in national income in these economies,as travel away represents a leakage(M).几乎没有学者分析过旅游对客源地的经济影响，因为出国旅游是一种漏损。However,mass tourism generat
42、ion,at least,is likely to produce:employment in travel agencies,tour operators,transport undertakings and enterprises engaged in marketing destinations.investment by carriers and tour operators,and the possibility of developing multinational tourism enterprisesa possible fall in seasonal price level
43、s whilst tourists are away and demand is slacker当游客已经离去，需求处于萧条时期，可能会出现季节性价格水平的回落。increases in short-term saving(S)as people put by for trips,or businesses hold pre-payments on money markets.a source of taxation revenue(T)on those items purchased before or on departure.,2.3The direct value of travel
44、and tourism in generating areas,The direct(and indirect)impacts of tourism expenditure depend on the ways in which the receipts are allocated-which in turn depend on the ownership and resource utilization of the tourism supplying sector.后者取决于旅游供给部门的所有权和资源利用形式。Intensity of use of factors of productio
45、n depends not only on factor productivity but also on the type of tourism provided.Figure 8.3 provides a very rough guide to the basis of production expected in different cases.The horizontal axis in Figure 8.3 shows-as an example only-a continuum from an economy where wages are relatively cheap com
46、pared with other factors of production to one where they are relatively dear.,3 The distribution of tourism-generated income,On the vertical axis lies a range of tourism types,from the business or culture centre to the destination principally offering sun,sea and sand.纵轴代表旅游地类型，上端表示商务型或者文化型旅游地，下端表示3
47、S型旅游地。Destinations tend,all else being equal,to possess a tourism sector whose income is distributed in relation to the intensity of factor use.Thus for$1 spent on a trip to Morocco,more employment is likely to be generated(though not necessarily a higher number of cents taken out for wages)than wit
48、h a trip to London,where the dollar is likely to be used more in returns to capital such as financing hotel property costs or paving for phone calls.经济不发达国家发展旅游经济可能愿意用旅游的发展带来就业的增加，并带动消费产业的发展已发展国民经济。而经济发达国家由于人力成本昂贵，比如欧美一些国家旅游企业愿意用资金来替代劳动力。,Figure 8.3 Use of factors in tourism production,The distribut
49、ion of returns to factors of production in tourism therefore depends not only on the marginal productivity or effciency of each factor,but also on the type of tourism.分配给各种旅游生产要素的效益，不仅取决于每一种要素的边际生产率或者效率，而且取决于旅游的类型。In sunlust-based less developed countries,tourism normally provides increased employme
50、nt,though not always with high wages,which increases C directly.In higher-wage economies,tourism development may mean a call on land and fixed investment for sophisticated transport systems,resort development and gazetting of National Parks.在工资水平较高的国家，旅游发展更多的是要求土地和固定资本投资，以便建设复杂的交通系统，开发旅游胜地和减色和主题公园。T
