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1、The wall is starting to crack.For years, China has made it tough for capital to flow to and from its economy, the second-largest in the world. Now, the government in Beijing is forging ahead with a campaign to bring the yuan onto the world stage and breaches are appearing in that formidable financia
2、l barrier.A yuan thats more widely used in international trade and investment could eventually challenge the dollars supremacy, correct some of the imbalances that plague the Chinese and global economy, and force a profligate U.S. to live within its means.It wont be an easy transition. There are pow
3、erful vested interests in China that are satisfied with the status quo and will try to put the brakes on any reform effort. But the changes China has made so far have generated momentum both at home and internationally and may prove too strong to resist.For more than a decade, Chinas closed capital
4、account has been a defining feature of the global economy. It has insulated the mainland from international capital flows, enabling China to ride out the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and leaving its banks unscathed by the near-collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008.As important, denying for
5、eign-exchange markets a role in setting the exchange rate has allowed the government to maintain the value of the yuan at an artificially low level supporting a 30-year export boom. Since Chinese savers cant take their money overseas, banks have also gotten away with offering them low interest rates
6、, keeping the cost of capital for industry at bargain-basement prices and underpinning an investment binge.Take the example of Shenzhen a fishing village in 1979, in 2011 a metropolis of 14 million built around the worlds fourth-busiest port. Low-cost capital subsidized the construction of transport
7、 and power infrastructure, factories and production lines. An undervalued yuan, combined with low cost of labor, enabled companies to undercut their foreign rivals on price.But manipulation of the exchange rate and repression of the interest rate comes at a cost. Cheap capital has resulted in overca
8、pacity in the industrial sector and bubbles in the mainlands property market. Managing the exchange rate in the face of trade surpluses has resulted in the buildup of gargantuan foreign-exchange reserves $3.04 trillion that China has little choice but to recycle as cut-price loans to the U.S.One of
9、the first cracks in Chinas restrictive policy came in July 2009. with a plan to allow settlement of import and export transactions in yuan. Wider international use of the yuan is intended to reduce transaction costs for Chinas importers and exporters, guard against the risk of a collapse in dollar t
10、rade financing as occurred at the end of 2008 and fly the flag for a rising economic world power.By the first quarter of 2011, $55 billion of Chinas trade 7% of the total was settled in yuan. At the end of April, yuan deposits in the Hong Kong banking system had risen to 511 billion, or $79 billion,
11、 up roughly ninefold from July 2009 when the settlement program was launched.Restrictions on outbound flows are also being lifted. In the past month, the Shanghai government announced plans to allow residents of the city to make investments overseas.But more substantial opening of the capital accoun
12、t will require progress in two areas: an exchange rate that is close to fair value and market-set interest rates. The yuan is still undervalued, but two factors suggest its much closer to market value than it used to be: It has appreciated 20% in real terms against a trade-weighted basket of currenc
13、ies since 2005, and Chinas current-account surplus fell to 5.2% of gross domestic product in 2010 from 10.1% in 2007.If the yuan is approaching fair value, the Chinese government will be able to loosen controls on the capital account with less chance of triggering destabilizing speculative inflows.C
14、hinas interest rates, meanwhile, are still set by the government. But the Peoples Bank of China is attempting to make progress, by taking a leaf out of the mainlands economic history.At the beginning of the reform era, Chinas government designated Shenzhen as a special economic zone where market-bas
15、ed policies could be tried before being expanded to the rest of the country. Hong Kong will serve as a similar site of experimentation for reform of the mainlands financial system. Yields on yuan-denominated debt trading in Hong Kong are already set by the market rather than with reference to the Pe
16、oples Bank of Chinas benchmark interest rate.According to the Royal Bank of Scotland, the value of bonds outstanding in this so-called dim-sum market has risen to the equivalent of $15.8 billion from about $5.3 billion at the end of 2009. McDonalds Corp. and Caterpillar Inc. are among the companies
17、that have turned to the new market for financing.The increase in trade settlement and the development of Hong Kong as a yuan financial center are mutually reinforcing. More yuan trade settlement adds to the pool of liquidity in Hong Kong, encouraging the development of more yuan investment products,
18、 and greater variety of investment products reinforces the incentive to use the yuan in trade settlement.What Comes NextNow pressure is building on China to open further channels into its capital markets. The question is whether change comes fast or slow. Chinas leaders seemed to be taking the cauti
19、ous route. The target of making Shanghai an international financial center by 2020 was regarded as the de facto target date for capital-account opening. But the rapid progress of the past year has raised expectations of opening earlier.If China accelerates its timetable, the implications are enormou
20、s. A higher interest rate will mean slower expansion of investment, eating into the mainlands appetite for commodities and shifting the main domestic growth engine down a gear.A more expensive yuan will limit demand for exports that have catalyzed the explosive growth of Chinas east coast. Low-value
21、-added makers of textiles, toys and toolswhere margins are razor thinwill be the first to shut up shop. High-technology manufacturers like Foxconnthe trade name of Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which makes the iPadhave already decided to move production facilities inland, to find cheaper labor awa
22、y from the coast.The same dynamic that will make investment less affordable and exporting less profitable means more spending power for Chinas householdskick-starting efforts to bring domestic demand to the fore as a driver of growth. In the U.S., businesses from Napa Valley wine makers to manufactu
23、rers of cinema projectors in Nebraska are hoping to cash in on the rise of the Chinese consumer.Not all of the changes will be so positive for the U.S. Reduced intervention by China in foreign-exchange markets will lead to a reduction in demand for U.S. Treasury debt, not just from China but also fr
24、om other Asian nations that have followed Chinas lead in managing their exchange rates. That will increase the cost of borrowing for the U.S., making it more difficult to finance public debt and continued current-account deficits.Displacing the Dollar?The next step in the development of the yuan as
25、an international currencya role as a reserve currency held by central bankswill require more substantial progress. A capital account that still remains tightly controlled means the Chinese currency cant fulfill the main function of reserves: a liquid asset that central banks can use to stabilize the
26、 value of their domestic currency.The transition to an open capital account wont be easy. Powerful interest groups in the export sector, state-owned enterprises, banks and local government benefit from a low interest rate and undervalued yuan. The door to reform is not wide open, but neither is it l
27、ocked.Reform has its own logic and its own momentum. Companies that raise yuan financing offshore today will demand increased opportunities to bring those yuan onto the mainland tomorrow. If interest rates are higher offshore, investors on the mainland will find opportunities to move their yuan in t
28、he other direction. If legitimate channels dont exist, companies with an onshore and offshore presence will find ways of circumventing Chinas capital controls.We arent there yet. Yuan deposits in Hong Kong arent yet equal to 1% of those on the mainland. But the pool of offshore yuan, available at in
29、terest rates set by the market, is growing fastreducing the effectiveness of Chinas capital controls and the ability of the central bank to use administrative tools to control the mainland economy.When the tide of offshore yuan starts to wash over the wall Beijing has built around its domestic finan
30、cial system, the impact on the Chinese and the world economy will be far-reaching. Chinas closed capital account has been the defining feature of the world economy in the past decade; its opening could be the defining feature of the decade ahead.多年来，中国一直严格控制资本跨境流动；但现在，已成为世界第二大经济体的中国正稳步推进人民币走向国际舞台，以往
31、那道戒备森严的金融屏障已开始松动。人民币在国际贸易和投资中获得广泛使用之后，困扰中国和全球经济的一些失衡现象将得以纠正，但这样一来，美元的霸主地位可能会面临挑战，而习惯于大手大脚的美国消费者或许也要开始学会量入为出。人民币走上国际舞台并非轻而易举。中国国内那些安于现状、但有着巨大影响力的既得利益群体会寻找一切机会阻挠改革进程。但人们可能发现，迄今为止的改变在中国国内外造成的巨大声势已经令这股洪流变得势不可挡。十多年以来，中国资本帐户封闭已成为全球经济的一个本质特征。封闭的资本帐户把中国与国际资本流动隔离开来，不仅让中国躲过了1997年亚洲金融危机的冲击，也使中国银行业在2008年美国金融系统几
32、近崩溃时未受牵连。在此期间，中国政府刻意摒除市场力量在汇率形成机制中的作用，从而将人民币汇率人为保持在较低水平，以此支持了长达30年的出口繁荣。由于中国储户不能把资金带到国外，于是银行支付低利率便毫无顾忌，这就为制造业提供了廉价融资，为一场热火朝天的投资狂欢作好铺垫。深圳的华丽变身就是最好的例子：1979年时的深圳还只是一个小渔村，而到了2011年，这座城市已成为一个1,400万人口、坐拥全球第四大港口的大都市。深圳为何发展如此神速？它的交通、电力设施、工厂和生产线的建设有低利率资本作为后盾；而人民币低估和劳动力廉价等有利条件更是使深圳企业在与外国同行的竞争中占据价格优势。话虽如此，中国操控人
33、民币汇率以及压低利率并非没有代价。廉价资本已导致工业领域产能过剩、房地产市场产生泡沫。在实现巨额贸易顺差的同时继续管控汇率的结果就是累积了庞大的外汇储备。如今，中国面对3.04万亿美元的巨额外汇储备已无从选择，只能让其作为一种折价贷款回流到美国。中国严格的限制政策最初出现松动是在2009年7月，当时政府制定了允许进出口贸易以人民币结算的计划。扩大人民币在国际上的使用是为了降低中国进出口交易的结算成本、防范2008年底时美元贸易融资供不应求带来的冲击，同时也是展示这个新兴经济大国日益崛起的经济实力。到2011年第一季度，中国跨境贸易人民币结算业务量升至550亿美元，占当季贸易结算总量的7%。截至
34、今年4月底，香港银行系统人民币存款激增至人民币5,110亿元（合790亿美元），较2009年7月人民币跨境贸易结算试点刚刚推出时高出约九倍。对于资金外流的限制也有所放松。5月份，上海市政府宣布了允许居民个人赴海外投资的计划。昨天晚上8点半，不过，真正意义上的放开资本帐户还需要取得两个方面的进展：人民币汇率接近公允价值和建立市场化利率机制。人民币目前仍被低估，但两项目指标表明人民币已更加向市场价值贴近：自2005年以来，人民币兑贸易加权一篮子货币的实际汇率已累计上升20%；2010年中国经常项目盈余占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例已从2007年的10.1%降至5.2%。如果人民币接近公允价值，那么
35、中国就可以在无需担心引发投机资本流入并威胁金融稳定的情况下放宽对资本帐户的控制。再看利率：尽管利率仍由政府设定，但中国央行正准备积极推进利率市场化进程。改革之初，中国政府将深圳定为经济特区，市场化政策在向全国推广之前首先会在这里进行试点。如今，香港成为了中国大陆金融体制改革的试验场。在香港发行的人民币债券收益率已经由市场决定，而不是参考中国央行的基准利率。根据苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)的数据，所谓点心债券的人民币计价债券发行总额已从2009年底时的53亿美元升至158亿美元。麦当劳(McDonalds Corp)、卡特彼勒(Caterpillar Inc.)
36、这些国际知名企业纷纷转向这个新的市场寻求融资。跨境贸易人民币结算的增加与香港作为人民币离岸中心的发展是相辅相成的。人民币贸易结算的增加可扩大香港的流动资金池，从而鼓励香港开发出更多人民币投资产品；而投资产品的多样化反过来又可以刺激人民币结算在跨境贸易中的使用。二、接下来会发生什么目前中国在进一步开放资本市场方面正面临越来越大的压力。问题是改革进程的快慢：中国领导层走的似乎是谨慎路线。中国计划到2020年将上海打造成国际金融中心，这被外界视为中国开放资本帐户的目标期限。但过去一年的快速发展加大了对中国资本帐户可能提早开放的期待。这一进程的加快将产生深远影响：利率升高将意味着投资增长放缓，导致中国
37、对大宗商品的需求下降，并致使中国发达地区的经济增速减慢。人民币升值将限制出口商品需求，而带动中国东部沿海经济腾飞的正是出口行业。受此影响，那些利润微薄，生产纺织品、玩具和工具等低附加值产品的厂商将最先倒闭；而以iPad代工企业富士康(Foxconn)为代表的高科技产品制造商已经决定将工厂从沿海转移到内地，以寻求更为廉价的劳动力。人民币的升值还会使投资成本难以承受、出口更加无利可图，但却意味着中国的家庭消费能力将有所增强，从而掀开以内需拉动经济增长的新篇章。美国的企业，从纳帕谷的葡萄酒庄到内布拉斯加的电影投影仪制造商，无一不希望从中国消费大军的崛起中分得一杯羹。不过，中国的这些变革并非都对美国有
38、利。中国减少外汇市场干预的结果将导致美国国债需求下降，而这不仅仅是来自中国的需求，那些效法中国管控本国汇率的其他亚洲国家对美国国债的需求也会下降。这样一来，美国的融资成本就会上升，要弥补财政和经常项目赤字缺口将变得更加困难。取代美元？人民币国际化的再下一步是成为各国央行持有的储备货币，要做到这一点需要改革取得长足的进展。如果资本账户依然被牢牢管控，那么人民币作为储备货币的主要功效就将无法发挥：储备货币就是一种央行可用来稳定本币价值的流动资产。开放资本项目的过程不会一帆风顺：出口领域、国有企业、银行和地方政府都不乏势力强大的既得利益群体，而他们是不会轻易放弃从低利率和人民币低估中获取利益的。改革
39、的大门并未完全敞开，但也不再是紧紧地锁在那里。改革有其自身的发展规律和动力：今天在离岸人民币市场筹措资金的企业明天就会需要将资金带回大陆。而如果离岸市场的利率更高，那么大陆投资者就会设法把手头的资金转向海外。如果没有合法的渠道，那些拥有在岸和离岸业务的公司就会想办法规避政策的限制。现在还远远没达到这个程度。香港的人民币存款还不到大陆人民币存款的1%。但是由市场决定利率的离岸人民币资金池正迅速扩容，这不但降低了政府对资本控制的效力，而且也削弱了中国央行通过行政手段调控大陆经济的能力。一旦离岸人民币的大潮开始漫过中国金融体系的那道保护屏障，将会给中国乃至世界经济带来深远影响。中国凭藉资本项目的封闭左右了过去十年的世界经济格局，而凭藉资本项目的开放，中国还将在未来十年继续引领世界经济的发展。
