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1、 一、社会经济环境2008年广东经济增速放缓，完成国内生产总值35696亿元，同比增长10.1%，增幅同比回落4.4个百分点。完成全社会固定资产投资11181亿元，同比增长16.5%，增幅同比回落1.5个百分点。城镇居民人均可支配收入19732.86元，同比增长11.5%，扣除物价因素，实际增长5.7%，增速同比放缓1.2个百分点。二、数据分析(一)房地产开发投资1、完成开发投资广东房地产完成开发投资2932.34亿元，同比增长16.8%，增幅同比回落20个百分点，比全国平均增长低4.1个百分点。固定资产投资占GDP比重为31.32%，与上年持平，比全国平均水平低26个百分点。房地产开发投资占
2、GDP比重为8.21%，与上年持平，比全国平均水平低约2个百分点(见表1)。表1 完成开发投资增长数据表 单位：亿元图一：广东近年固定资产投资与房地产开发投资增长比较近年第4季度房地产投资呈现逐年上涨的态势，2008年第4季度则接近零增长(见图二)。图二：广东近年第4季度房地产开发投资增长比较按用途划分的完成开发投资当中，住宅同比增长18.85%，增幅同比回落近20个百分点；办公楼在上年下降3.86%的基础上，又有13.36%的回落；商业用房同比增长6.1%，增幅同比回落9.29个百分点；其他投资同比增长21.53%，与上年62.15%的增幅形成较大反差。数据表明，各类用途的开发投资增幅均出现
3、不同程度的下滑，其中住宅与其它开发投资最为明显(见表2)。表2 按用途完成开发投资数据表 单位：万元从近年房地产各类投资走势来看，住宅投资结束了前两年高速增长的态势，增速趋缓，办公楼投资连续两年负增长(见图三)。 图三：广东近年房地产各类投资走势2、开发资金来源全年到位资金3762亿元，同比下降4.82%，与上年42.31%增幅形成对比。从近年房地产到位资金占开发资金比例看，2002年以来呈现逐年增长态势，到2007年达到最高位。2008年首次下滑，比例为1.281，且为近年最低(见表3，图四)。表3 近年来房地产到位资金占开发资金比重图四：广东近年房地产到位资金情况第4季度到位资金同比下降2
4、2.73%，为2002年以来历年同期房地产到位资金占开发资金比例最低。可见，房地产开发资金较为紧张(见图五)。图五：广东近年第4季度房地产到位资金情况从资金来源结构看，国内贷款与自筹同比均有一成多的增长，而外资增长同比回落两成多，销售回笼资金出现了2003年以来首次的负增长，降幅为两成二(见表4)。表4 房地产资金来源基础数据表 单位：万元图六：广东近年房地产资金来源变动资金结构发生较大调整。销售回笼资金占到位资金的比例仅42%，为2002年以来最低；相应地自筹资金占到位资金的比例升至33%，国内贷款占到位资金的比例升至23%，均为2002年以来最高；外资占到位资金的比例1.74%，为近年次低
5、(见图七)。图七：广东近年房地产资金来源结构(二)土地购置与上年相比，房地产企业购置土地面积减少13.26%，购置欲望降低；购置金额增长19.4%，购置单价增长37.7%，连续3年单价均增长3成多(见表5、图八)。表5 房地产企业购置土地数据表 单位：万元、万m2图八：广东近年房地产企业购置土地状况(三)商品房建设商品房施工面积、竣工面积同比分别增长14.39%、8.24%。值得关注的是，商品房新开工面积同比出现了负增长，为2003年以来首次，与上年增长30.37%成强烈对比(见表6、图九)。新开工面积当中住宅降幅近12%，而上年同期增长32.68%；商业降幅2.6%，而上年增长10.73%；
6、其他基本持平，而上年增长43%；截然相反的是办公楼增幅高达34%，而上年是17.0%的降幅。表6 各类商品房建设数据表 单位：万m2图九：广东近年商品房建设状况全年各季度新开工面积呈现先降后涨的特点。第13季度逐步回落，第4季度出现了反弹(见表7、图十)。表7 广东2008年度各季度新开工面积比较图十：广东2008年各季度新开工面积比较从近年第4季度新开工面积比较情况来看，2008年已经回落到了2003年同期的水平(见表8、图十一)。表8 广东近年第4季度新开工比较表图十一：广东近年第4季度新开工比较(四)商品房交易全年商品房销售面积4824.41万平方米，同比下降22.43%；销售额2880
7、亿元，同比下降21.40%。商品房销售均价5970元/平方米，同比增长1.34%。商品住宅销售面积和销售金额同比均有两成多的回落。住宅销售均价5754元/平方米，同比增长1.79%(见表9)。表9 房地产交易数据表全年商品房及住宅销售面积与销售额负增长，均为2003年以来首次。房价终结快速增长势头，急降至2004年以来最低幅度增长(见图十二、图十三)。图十二：广东近年商品房销售情况图十三：广东近年住宅销售情况分季度看，商品住宅销售面积与销售额第1、3季度走低，第2、4季度回升，房价在第4季度环比下挫5.39%(见图十四)。图十四：2008年度各季度住宅销售比较(五)市场消化系数(注)市场消化系
8、数比上年下降了0.4876，且低于2006年的水平(见表10、图十五)，说明市场不够活跃，消化能力减弱。表10 生成指标数据表图十五：广东近年商品房消化系数走势(六)二手房交易全省二手房销售面积3309.54万m2，销售额870.21亿元，同比分别下降27.12%和35%；销售均价2629元/m2，同比下降10.82%。广州、深圳二手房销售面积同比分别下降37.63%和54.2%；销售额同比分别下降30.62%和55.1%；销售均价分别为4336元/m2和5264元/m2，同比分别增长11.24%和负2%。其中，第四季度广州、深圳二手房销售面积环比分别下降3.56、18.34%；销售额环比分别
9、增加1.47%和负12.80%(见表11)。表11 二手房交易数据表数据来源：广东省建设厅(七)商品房空置商品房竣工面积同比增长8.24%，增加竣工332万平方米；销售面积同比下降22.43%，减少销售1395万平方米，较大地增加了空置量。年末商品房空置总量1824.61万平方米，较上年末增加245.4万平方米，增幅15.54%。其中在第四季度就增加近253万平方米。滞销(空置1-3年)和积压(空置3年以上)面积同比增加14.84%，待销(空置一年以内)面积增加17%。住宅空置增加279万平方米，增幅高达37%，其中在第四季度增加228万平方米。其余各类型物业的空置指标总体呈现小幅的下降态势(
10、见表12)。表12 房地产空置数据表 单位：万m2年末商品房空置总量及住宅空置量出现了2004年以来连续4年下降后的首次上升(见图十六)。图十六：广东近年年度期末商品房空置状况三、结论1、关于开发投资和商品房供应。全年完成开发投资增速明显放缓，住宅开发投资增幅下滑明显。商品房新开工面积负增长，为2003年以来首次。2、关于资金供应和土地供应。全年到位资金负增长，其占开发资金比例为2003年以来最低，房地产开发资金压力增大。从资金来源结构看，销售回笼资金出现了2003年以来首次负增长；其占资金来源比重也降为2002年以来最低。企业购置土地面积减少一成多，购置土地欲望降低。3、关于销售状况。商品住
11、宅销售面积、销售金额均下降两成多，为2003年以来首次大幅度下降。市场消化能力减弱。4、关于房价。商品住宅价格终结近年快速增长势头，与上年基本持平。考虑到市场销售中送装修等各项优惠，实际房价比名义房价略低，实际房价可能表现为负增长。5、综上所述，2008年广东房地产市场的完成开发投资增速、商品房及商品住宅新开工面积、到位资金、销售回笼资金、购置土地面积、商品住宅销售面积和销售金额、市场消化系数等多项指标均呈现不同程度的跌幅，与前几年持续增长态势形成对比。房地产市场已经进入周期性调整。面对市场不景气、企业收缩投资、新开工面积下降的形势，需要政府更多地出台促进住房消费、鼓励房地产投资的政策，需要开
12、发企业以合理价格促销，恢复市场正常交易量，稳定房地产市场，以促进宏观经济“软着陆”。注：“市场消化系数”是通过计算一定时期内商品房吸纳量占市场供应量的比值，反映市场消化能力。 (见下表)。系数的一般公式定义为：市场实现吸纳量/市场有效供应量。系数的分子为销售面积，含现楼和预售。分母：由于一般有约两成的竣工面积是公建配套、回迁补偿等，因此可销比例k取为0.8；系数假设满足待销面积(小于1年的空置量)将在本年度被均匀地吸纳的条件。系数越大，说明市场越活跃，消化能力越强。 Editors note: Judson Jones is a meteorologist, journalist and ph
13、otographer. He has freelanced with CNN for four years, covering severe weather from tornadoes to typhoons. Follow him on Twitter: jnjonesjr (CNN) - I will always wonder what it was like to huddle around a shortwave radio and through the crackling static from space hear the faint beeps of the worlds
14、first satellite - Sputnik. I also missed watching Neil Armstrong step foot on the moon and the first space shuttle take off for the stars. Those events were way before my time.As a kid, I was fascinated with what goes on in the sky, and when NASA pulled the plug on the shuttle program I was heartbro
15、ken. Yet the privatized space race has renewed my childhood dreams to reach for the stars.As a meteorologist, Ive still seen many important weather and space events, but right now, if you were sitting next to me, youd hear my foot tapping rapidly under my desk. Im anxious for the next one: a space c
16、apsule hanging from a crane in the New Mexico desert.Its like the set for a George Lucas movie floating to the edge of space.You and I will have the chance to watch a man take a leap into an unimaginable free fall from the edge of space - live.The (lack of) air up there Watch man jump from 96,000 fe
17、et Tuesday, I sat at work glued to the live stream of the Red Bull Stratos Mission. I watched the balloons positioned at different altitudes in the sky to test the winds, knowing that if they would just line up in a vertical straight line we would be go for launch.I feel this mission was created for
18、 me because I am also a journalist and a photographer, but above all I live for taking a leap of faith - the feeling of pushing the envelope into uncharted territory.The guy who is going to do this, Felix Baumgartner, must have that same feeling, at a level I will never reach. However, it did not st
19、op me from feeling his pain when a gust of swirling wind kicked up and twisted the partially filled balloon that would take him to the upper end of our atmosphere. As soon as the 40-acre balloon, with skin no thicker than a dry cleaning bag, scraped the ground I knew it was over.How claustrophobia a
20、lmost grounded supersonic skydiverWith each twist, you could see the wrinkles of disappointment on the face of the current record holder and capcom (capsule communications), Col. Joe Kittinger. He hung his head low in mission control as he told Baumgartner the disappointing news: Mission aborted.The
21、 supersonic descent could happen as early as Sunday.The weather plays an important role in this mission. Starting at the ground, conditions have to be very calm - winds less than 2 mph, with no precipitation or humidity and limited cloud cover. The balloon, with capsule attached, will move through t
22、he lower level of the atmosphere (the troposphere) where our day-to-day weather lives. It will climb higher than the tip of Mount Everest (5.5 miles/8.85 kilometers), drifting even higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airliners (5.6 miles/9.17 kilometers) and into the stratosphere. As he
23、crosses the boundary layer (called the tropopause), he can expect a lot of turbulence.The balloon will slowly drift to the edge of space at 120,000 feet (22.7 miles/36.53 kilometers). Here, Fearless Felix will unclip. He will roll back the door.Then, I would assume, he will slowly step out onto some
24、thing resembling an Olympic diving platform.Below, the Earth becomes the concrete bottom of a swimming pool that he wants to land on, but not too hard. Still, hell be traveling fast, so despite the distance, it will not be like diving into the deep end of a pool. It will be like he is diving into th
25、e shallow end.Skydiver preps for the big jumpWhen he jumps, he is expected to reach the speed of sound - 690 mph (1,110 kph) - in less than 40 seconds. Like hitting the top of the water, he will begin to slow as he approaches the more dense air closer to Earth. But this will not be enough to stop hi
26、m completely.If he goes too fast or spins out of control, he has a stabilization parachute that can be deployed to slow him down. His team hopes its not needed. Instead, he plans to deploy his 270-square-foot (25-square-meter) main chute at an altitude of around 5,000 feet (1,524 meters).In order to
27、 deploy this chute successfully, he will have to slow to 172 mph (277 kph). He will have a reserve parachute that will open automatically if he loses consciousness at mach speeds.Even if everything goes as planned, it wont. Baumgartner still will free fall at a speed that would cause you and me to p
28、ass out, and no parachute is guaranteed to work higher than 25,000 feet (7,620 meters).It might not be the moon, but Kittinger free fell from 102,800 feet in 1960 - at the dawn of an infamous space race that captured the hearts of many. Baumgartner will attempt to break that record, a feat that boggles the mind. This is one of those monumental moments I will always remember, because there is no way Id miss this.
