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1、 沪市公司IPO的绩效分析 摘要通过对1999年和2000年间上市沪A股公司实证研究，发现这两年间上市的沪A股存在业绩下滑现象。结合中国持有制度背景，讨论公司IPO业绩下滑影响因素。 关键词 IPO 业绩效应 上市公司一，IPO业绩效应的一般理论首次公开发行股票（Initially Public Offerings简称IPO）的公司，其经营业绩在上市前后会有怎样变化，是什么原因造成这些变化的发生，是长期以来财务界，金融界十分关注的问题。从理论上来说，公司往往在进入快速成长阶段上市，上市时获得了一笔可观的股权资本，提高资信等级，改善了资本结构，上市后还可以在资本市场上持续融资，增强了竞争环境下抵
2、御支付风险的财务能力；同时从上市前的资本约束，投资不足状态中解脱出来，在把握战略投资机会和起因战略资源方面处于有利的竞争地位。所以公司在上市后的三至四年内，应该实现与资产规模扩张速度一致甚至更高的经营业绩目标。但是国外学者的研究表明，公司上市当年经营业绩显著低于上市前一年，即公司上市后难以维持其上市前的业绩水平，上市后经营业绩显著下降。关于公司上市前后业绩变化的理论预期与实证结果的背离，称之为“IPO业绩效应”。对其原因，国外学者一般认为有以下几方面原因：（一）代理成本假说。主要是管理层与外部鼓动的利益冲突和代理成本的增加，出现将自由现金流投资与不利于股东价值最大化的投资行为，导致企业业绩下降
3、。（二）报表粉饰假说。企业管理层为了更多的融资和上市成功，美化或高估其上市前的会计利润，使上市后的实际经营业绩难以超过上市前。（三）“机会之窗“假说。管理层利用信息不对称选择在公司业绩最好的时机上市。（四）内部控制失效假说。由于公司内部控制系统失效，使产业内各企业过度投资，形成能力严重过剩，引起价格战，从而导致经营业绩下滑。我国股市字创立以来，发展迅速。大量数据表明，尽管大部分上市公司都是各地筛选好的企业，但整体经营业绩财务指标仍呈现下降趋势，陷入“一年绩优，二年绩平，三年亏损，四年重组”的怪圈。借国内外的研究方法，我们想对上市公司业绩表现及其原因进行研究。二，沪市公司IPO业绩效应的表现1样
4、本的选择我们选取的是1999年和2000年的只首发沪A股的公司作样本。并且样本要满足以下这个条件：1998年到2004年间，各年的总资产收益率（净利润/总资产）必须在（-30%，70%）这个区间范围内。这样选择的原因是既可以排除大亏一次式赢余管理的干扰，又可以消除异样值的影响。而且保证了有足够的样本进行统计检验。最终我们选择的90个样本，其中99年样本49个，00年样本41个。2研究方法构造了一个变量Y来衡量一家公司上市后的业绩变化幅度。Y=上市前两年（即-2年）与前一年（即-1年）的总资产收益率的均值-上市后第二年（即2年）与上市后第三年（即3年）的总资产收益率的均值。考虑到总资产收益率代表
5、企业经营业绩，筹集资金投资效益可能滞后，所以采用上市后第二年和第三年的均值。3数据来源上市前后的数据来源均从巨潮信息网获得。4结果显示通过得到的数据表明，所有样本的Y值都大于0，即上市后的业绩与上市前相比都下滑了。当然可能存在一些宏观因素的影响。不同年份上市的公司在上市前后的经营业绩的变化会受到不同年份宏观经济变迁的影响。所以我们采用的比较均值法，尽管还不能完全剔除宏观因素的影响，但足以说明我国上市公司确实也存在上市后业绩下滑的问题。三，IPO前后公司业绩显著下滑的影响 1建立模型（-2年与-1年总资产收益率均值）-（2年与3年的相应均值）上市时募集资金/上市前一年末净资产上市后三年内有配股为
6、1，否为0上市当年第一大股东持股比例大于50%为1，否为0用于偿还上市前债务的募集资金/总募集资金上市前年末的总资产大于50亿为大规模取1，否为0 2研究假设及其相关解释 （1）上市是募集资金额对企业上市前后业绩变化的影响 ）提出的原因：首先许多企业为了用足上市发行额度，在募集资金使用计划中回采用多种手段，虚构投资项目，夸大投资需求，从而夸大投资项目的资金需求量，以尽可能多地募集资金。导致募集资金超过了公司运营资金的能力，资金严重过剩。其次有些企业在上市前有很多债务没有偿还。上市后用大量募集资金来偿还债务，再将剩余部分用来投资，造成投资金额不充足等现象发生。另外募集的资金会延迟产生经济效益。这
7、几方面都会导致经营业绩下降。）提出假设H1：企业募集资金与首发前一年末净资产比值越大，业绩下降的幅度越大 。 假设H2：用于偿还上市前债务的募集资金占总募集资金比例越大，业绩下降的幅度越大。 （2）配股对首次发行公司上市前后业绩变化的影响 ）提出的原因：如果公司获取了在三年内的配股资格，在发行时就有可能对各年业绩进行平滑，而不会将利润全部集中在首发当年或之前。 ）提出假设H3：公司股票首次发行后三年内如果配股，则公司业绩下降幅度的要小于无配股的公司。 （3）第一大股东持股比例对首发公司上市前后业绩变化的影响 ）提出的原因：由于我国特有的非流通股股东控股现象，大股东处于自身利益考虑而进行上市前的
8、赢余管理，可能导致业绩下滑。上市时第一大股东持股比例越高，老股东达到筹资目的且牺牲较小控制权的动机越高。大股东有可能利于控股地位从上市公司抽区利润和资金。 ）提出假设H4：企业上市时的股权越集中，经营业绩下滑的幅度越大。 （4）公司规模大小对其上市前后业绩变化的影响 ）提出的原因：公司规模不同，在抗风险和灵活性方面则不同。规模大的上市公司一般处于行业领先地位，其收益较稳定，相比而言，规模小的公司则处于不利地位。 ）提出假设H5：上市时总资产规模与上市前后业绩下降幅度有关。3回归结果Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/06/03
9、Time: 11:01Sample: 1 90Included observations: 89Excluded observations: 1VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. X10.0251320.0046625.3911180.0000X2-0.0155150.011590-1.3387410.1893X30.0111780.0065781.6994560.0981X40.0194210.0083722.3197400.0263X50.0136790.0092971.4713370.1501R-squared0.325583 Me
10、an dependent var0.022380Adjusted R-squared0.248507 S.D. dependent var0.025141S.E. of regression0.021794 Akaike info criterion-4.697862Sum squared resid0.016625 Schwarz criterion-4.486752Log likelihood98.95723 Durbin-Watson stat2.062486Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/06/03 Time: 11
11、:12Sample: 1 90Included observations: 89Excluded observations: 1VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. X10.0233300.0109992.1211240.0413X2-0.0157440.011820-1.3319370.1917X30.0107310.0071101.5092290.1405X40.0202490.0096382.1009070.0431X50.0128510.0104731.2270820.2282C0.0025100.0138300.1815090.8
12、570R-squared0.326236 Mean dependent var0.022380Adjusted R-squared0.227153 S.D. dependent var0.025141S.E. of regression0.022102 Akaike info criterion-4.648830Sum squared resid0.016609 Schwarz criterion-4.395498Log likelihood98.97661 F-statistic3.292554Durbin-Watson stat2.036391 Prob(F-statistic)0.015
13、680总体上看，实证结果部分支持我们提出的假设：（一） 公司上市后业绩下降幅度，与上市时募资总额与上市前一年净资产的比值成正比。原因：筹资金的滞后性，即是上市后的二，三年都仍未带来足够利润。（二） 公司上市后业绩下降幅度，与用于偿债筹资金与总筹资金的比值成正比。筹资金用于偿还上市前的债务，而不是用于经营，会导致公司在上市后的业绩下滑。（三） 三年内有配股公司的业绩下降幅度小于无配股公司。说明公司在能获得首发的前提下，在发行时就会对各年业绩进行平滑。（四） 第一大股东持股数与公司规模大小对公司业绩下滑的影响不显著。（五） 回归的显著系数不高，原因：有很多未考虑的变量。比如公司上市前的评估增值率对
14、其业绩的影响，公司管理层把筹得的部分资金用于消费而没有用来投资等。以上回归均通过了各项检验。1多重共线性的检验X1X2X3X4X5X1 1.000000 0.071047-0.178757-0.428682-0.362140X2 0.071047 1.000000 2.89E-17-0.032236-0.060239X3-0.178757 2.89E-17 1.000000 0.070067 0.149215X4-0.428682-0.032236 0.070067 1.000000 0.046749X5-0.362140-0.060239 0.149215 0.046749 1.000000
15、通过以上的简单相关系数矩阵看出，各解释变量之间的相关性不大，则模型不存在多重共线性的影响。2异方差的检验White Heteroskedasticity Test:F-statistic0.739836 Probability0.640165Obs*R-squared5.571826 Probability0.590535Test Equation:Dependent Variable: RESID2Method: Least SquaresDate: 06/06/03 Time: 12:48Sample: 1 90Included observations: 89Excluded obser
16、vations: 1VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C0.0004970.0006090.8156160.4207X1-0.0004020.001110-0.3623110.7195X120.0004340.0005650.7676030.4484X2-0.0001010.000403-0.2517570.8028X30.0001160.0002540.4545590.6525X4-0.0008890.000807-1.1020120.2787X420.0003690.0005130.7191210.4773X60.0001600.0
17、003760.4239920.6744R-squared0.139296 Mean dependent var0.000415Adjusted R-squared-0.048983 S.D. dependent var0.000719S.E. of regression0.000737 Akaike info criterion-11.41227Sum squared resid1.74E-05 Schwarz criterion-11.07449Log likelihood236.2453 F-statistic0.739836Durbin-Watson stat1.317367 Prob(
18、F-statistic)0.640165从WHITE检验的结果来看，Obs*R-squared=5.571826(0.05)=14.0671,说明模型不存在异方差的问题。3自相关性的检验Durbin-Watson stat=2.036391，极为接近2，可以据此判断模型不存在随机干扰项自相关的问题。参考文献：1. 李常青，刘清昌。影响IPO公司业绩效应分析。南开管理评论，2005B卷（1），P96-100。2. 洪剑峭，陈朝晖。中国股市IPO效应实证研究。中国会计与财务研究，2002。（1）。3. 李志斌。银行结构与中小企业融资。经济研究，2002，（6）。4. 米什金。货币金融学。中国人民大
19、学出版社，1998，P237-242。5. （日）青木昌彦。比较制度分析。上海远东出版社，2001，P321-324。6. Jain,B.A.&Kini,O.The Post-issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms.Journal of Finance,1994,(49).7. Mikkelson,Waync H.M.Partch&K.Shah.ownership and Operating Performance of Companies that Go Public.Journal of Financial Economics,1997,(44),
20、P281-307.计量经济学课程论文 沪市公司IPO绩效分析 02级金融工程 组 长：黎 梅（40221035） 组 员：张 益（40221024） 冯小鹿（40221023） 指导老师：史代敏教授完成时间：2005年46月附表1 ：原始数据20002001净利润总资产净利润总资产60052337,219,413.65807,790,574.7919,103,223.52108,827,022.2560050627,345,145.43319,400,533.9129,716,025.17611,926,094.77600548339,223,834.005,931,176,373.00401
21、,936,897.006,995,999,210.0060033136,571,048.71521,446,977.9222,238,564.541,145,447,720.326005671,806.7133,755.622,303.5066,627.6760039130,176,032.48376,744,837.8735,124,542.66663,312,716.836000112,644,226,94742,411,333,8513,636,064,24447,229,708,71860036131,542,327.39432,276,371.7345,817,353.871,540
22、,299,162.0460032264,404,291.082,563,699,215.9166,301,936.103,059,129,286.0260059623,035,858.52597,899,710.7620,482,849.16930,993,924.2660044833,600,876.37818,451,764.6722,816,122.621,289,880,042.71600508113,575,647.971,005,586,498.85165,454,534.371,902,588,812.4060059911854714.03131947190.47 1779009
23、6.31350247095.82 600519251,103,580.631,268,856,244.90328,290,723.143,463,388,734.9860053930,730,021.67511,255,387.6437,227,836.981,050,270,596.5360041881,654,875.03651,413,668.8788,962,410.671,371,371,007.72600498111,071,404.101,409,682,790.15167,435,299.443,026,427,577.9760056614,546,817.04223,382,
24、952.9117,701,866.29582,650,722.58600569492262987.45 5089480677.66 470730259.54 6068533586.00 60034613,805,052.62334,537,103.1715,952,621.88530,270,936.8360002816,154,000,000340,918,000,000.0014,018,000,000.00360,294,000,000.0060055610,133,219.69267,843,584.1615,180,753.47788,877,537.946003859,359,48
25、8.14422,462,769.564,754,302.01440,133,073.7860037290,754,752.722,071,888,942.8986,529,340.033,287,764,438.2260053050,615,855.64448,112,095.8254,640,914.531,174,748,264.5760041912,629,669.25248,633,462.9313,569,777.31403,397,127.3760031144,042,432.17399,055,346.4764,777,145.371,244,658,168.8560048865
26、,583,454.97502,776,628.7575,362,245.231,134,021,405.5560050122,163,321.83413,606,412.3833,009,067.82792,746,435.6760046816750877.31366510527.85950581.01561425046.360058926,423,951.85269,563,223.4335,227,474.65688,375,246.37600380155,999,285.85739,794,877.87200,618,059.902,327,350,377.6360032986,474,
27、0002,512,656,00064,441,0002,719,735,00060039549,440,139.36730,289,182.3168,594,330.311,391,446,321.47600528169,930,075.782,020,279,822.36164,151,937.383,471,109,479.5760032161,371,680.00281,021,660.0061,904,180.001,295,455,710.006005682,367,684.79124,129,131.8613,867,134.12460,314,776.9260038113,949
28、,326.33295,016,625.8619,468,512.38598,919,728.52600295206,399,1893,401,631,873230,683,8933,911,307,69260035636,539,757.32663,750,882.3845,694,782.87656,006,785.5760038384,163,013.701,132,508,511.25120,277,004.322,269,934,364.2860036317,110,000.00700,600,000.0017,030,000.00701,300,000.0020032004总资产净利
29、润总资产净利润1,005,367,182.204,415,964.171,051,179,898.501,684,585.38712,468,006.5616,150,216.93669,789,690.72804,797.857,105,308,870.56852,037,109.317,518,609,524.83484,564,032.972,255,667,983.1646,428,499.412,792,464,188.9396,739,019.611,203,213,100.0048,595,600.001,727,036,700.0048,015,700.00657,312,70
30、4.4425,971,643.78676,427,941.1820,702,912.1953,276,965,016.005,457,142,551.0071,324,978,078.005,389,057,047.002,210,856,307.9064,572,895.242,277,146,858.0197,249,562.293,178,469,898.9820,880,374.793,550,169,182.7115,718,668.601,136,126,682.0435,115,702.901,454,760,882.46137,280,629.051,306,040,651.0
31、82,270,566.261,028,780,648.98-103,110,677.912,723,636,352.25173,731,456.673,439,490,507.84363,575,031.31544,795,700.001,008,300.00546,711,000.002,126,000.004,956,365,810.85586,747,838.276,373,652,963.57820,553,997.191,122,815,682.8723,626,285.281,204,286,895.9824,712,199.562,505,332,100.00207,370,90
32、0.003,765,438,500.00321,438,300.003,683,626,432.5725,651,514.393,632,581,244.0535,160,727.82650,391,551.557,402,611.24697,903,884.807,427,604.167,468,795,189.23824,392,203.308,939,752,864.41732,018,142.38563,445,176.644,628,465.39565,787,963.864,830,637.37390,213,000,000.0019,011,000,000.00460,081,0
33、00,000.0032,275,000,000.001,420,126,044.2157,321,856.061,752,042,824.7478,228,815.89240,811,998.03-76,431,576.02232,053,117.773,024,626.473,885,578,271.3150,722,320.633,633,666,685.30-48,008,147.561,604,701,789.5457,022,956.691,506,015,781.3431,075,131.26513,619,346.1010,255,142.90546,851,379.60-13,
34、232,125.701,431,256,488.0256,588,442.211,468,626,949.8750,159,143.421,604,898,191.9290,075,722.981,528,578,144.08100,858,183.011,058,399,661.198,250,867.141,469,888,841.4034,866,653.93788,606,250.8010,179,193.39793,977,981.1316,360,371.70830,924,769.3553,062,784.481,072,077,752.3754,448,037.164,415,
35、827,026.70140,275,065.494,413,648,169.3197,263,412.273,797,116,000.0086,459,000.003,913,234,000.0064,023,000.001,523,470,093.4774,134,923.631,838,859,491.8077,717,369.094,242,059,242.2670,898,942.415,706,443,578.1570,133,105.161,224,989,692.8532,833,857.591,561,970,678.0129,400,439.38567,921,190.771
36、1,090,705.37771,638,014.178,756,158.201,181,490,109.2527,557,871.581,713,444,081.3118,861,585.505,184,099,551.00175,232,381.006,824,403,838.00162,947,858.00947,092,663.6569,706,110.491,156,894,903.1874,581,921.024,819,133,278.32165,550,077.895,860,637,249.07246,254,839.981,546,786,900.0047,920,300.0
37、01,725,559,700.0038,309,000.00上市募集资金支付债务现金筹资总额 327554200273,008,379.26620,666,678.6023141290055,400,000.00344,938,503.68587140000540,000,4261,269,739,404446801500126,330,000.00706,385,694.6140000000119,000,000.00452,482,882.7924523000027466800004,859,764,7025,472,932,3353783200006,291,624.441,550,25
38、4,330.81588550000155,433,605.71705,209,896.96310982000271,900,000.00534,705,603.30531794000871,576,355.88963575000234,400,000.001,003,236,857.5720997800019,037,700.00238,622,955.802202179475129,000,000.002,014,522,206.52594626300107,740,000.00662,872,164.14841191500266,020,000.00967,118,447.70179734
39、2000164,052,000.002,116,559,102.2533000000037,210,000.001829250000619,584,257.991,739,550,737.98197210000169,160,000.00364,356,907.78115760842004,500,000,000.0042132200090,304,024.72644,066,826.2746020000776441000448,525,125.001,120,245,921.00665250000227,000,000.001,025,042,820.2616633500082,600,00
40、0.00254,605,103.97667700000492147900245,029,545.55871,576,355.88304290000478,000,000.00791,595,349.36186200000110,000,000.00327,489,862.82384000000142,835,870.08534,456,921.871701503300384100000248,256,000395,801,000.006980649000.00747,109,565.9510167550000.001,079,671,290.8484055000083,000,000.001,
41、059,564,964.5288792440032472090030,000,000.00353,805,491.7618780000062,020,000.00257,744,246.8713005183521,006,953,1002,007,897,806.00270800000114,300,000.0073,985,084.7799年净利润99年总资产98年净利润98年总资产60038813,553,523.54359,316,671.886,694,750.80248,166,639.9760039998,945,303.382,051,625,852.7766,938,134.2
42、31,830,690,097.4160033639,008,475.75381,417,303.4535,721,146.91322,631,736.1760039826182735.32177,353,222.202132298.2728,265,620.3960033852,289,599.28621,893,119.1543,814,120.80564,034,664.7930030618,425,724.26321,853,120.7017,535,032.87425,114,944.1260033931,427,108.03293,303,950.1529,177,102.18210,678,436.3260032323,683,439.36464,239,665.7019,529,661.97454,699,897.9860034525,076,071.22595,636,545.7654,616,923.68701,510,656.3160032832,011,320.51549,469,565.8925,040,859.82549,478,905.0660036892,328,788.38
