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1、灾害管理培训,概况,课程目标：了解灾害管理的基本概念和当今灾害管理的趋势，了解灾害管理和发展之间的关系、了解损害评估和需求分析的方法、了解社区灾害风险管理的方法及过程、了解参与式风险评估的概念及方法,交流内容,灾害管理的基本概念和术语灾害管理的趋势灾害与发展的关系评估方法简介,灾害管理的基本概念和术语,基本术语：灾害、致灾因子、风险、风险元素、能力、易损性、灾害风险、响应、求援救济、恢复、修复、重建、发展、减轻、准备、防御、灾害风险管理灾害管理的趋势：防御、减轻、救灾-防灾、备灾、将灾害风险纳入发展周期中 国家-社区 多层次、多方位与多学科的参与及共同工作的全面灾害管理灾害风险管理的周期：大范
2、围的组织、机构的参与和有效合作，与制度国家发展规划相联，旨在创造最佳利用资源、最大程度减少重复的有规划的环境，增强可持续发展，并提高国家和社区的抵御能力，包括确定背景、辨别风险、分析风险、评估风险、接受风险、应对风险,灾害管理的趋势,趋势：综合灾害风险管理，帮助 决策者在发展规划中进行灾害风险分析，从而减轻投资风险社区参与灾害风险管理,灾害管理周期的变化,灾害管理周期包括六个阶段：防御减轻准备响应修复恢复,EmergencyResponse紧急响应,Rehabilitation修复,Reconstruction重建,DisasterPrevention防灾,DisasterMitigation
3、减灾,DisasterPreparedness备灾,Warning预警,Disaster灾害,New Paradigm,Understanding the impact of disaster risks on development and incorporating disaster risk considerations into development funding and planningDevelopment should support the reduction of vulnerability and the building of community and countr
4、y resilienceDevelopment agencies and donors must promote linkages between their development and humanitarian work,Holistic、Comprehensive、Cooperative and Collaborative、Multi-level,multi-dimensional and multi-disciplinary involvement、Considers underlying causes of disasters,conditions of disaster risk
5、s,CHARM moves the focus away from departments and agencies supporting a wide range of non-coordinated activities,towards a broader and integrated programming approach that will promote the achievement of sustainable outcomes.,社区参与灾害风险管理,To enable the vulnerable members of a community or society to o
6、btain the benefits that they desire and expect from their collective participation in the identification,planning,implementation and evaluation of risk reduction project.使社区或社会的脆弱群体获得他们所渴望并期待的好处。这些好处是从他们在集体参与减轻灾害风险项目的辨别、规划、实施和评估中获得的。,目标：,什么是社区灾害风险管理过程,Process of mobilizing a group of people in a sys
7、tematic way towards achieving a common risk reduction objective which takes place in a geographically-defined living area(or)in sector groups not necessarily living in a district location.社区灾害风险管理过程是指：用一种有系统的方式，动员一群人完成减轻灾害风险的共同目标的过程。这一过程发生在居住在同一地理区域的社区，或发生在一个专业领域但不一定同属一个地理区域的人群中。,Stages in Community
8、 Based Disaster Risk Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,1,INITIATING THE PROCESS 创始过程,EXTERNAL INVOLVEMENT 外部参与,Request for assistance from within vulnerable communities 来自脆弱社区的援助要求Identification of vulnerable communities by intermediaries 由相关的中间组织辨别脆弱的社区A hazard event or disaster that highlight
9、s the need for assistance 需要重点援助应对的致灾因子或灾害Knowledge of local situations,processes and systems 了解当地情况、经济、社会关系及政治、行政管理系统,Stage,2,COMMUNITY PROFILING 社区剖面,EXTERNAL INVOLVEMENT 外部参与,Initial integration with the community 与社区接触、融合Understanding of the community,its developmental positions and the context
10、upon which disaster will impact 了解社区的基本情况、社区的发展状况及灾害将造成对社区的影响Identification of social groups,cultural arrangements,economic activities,spatial characteristics,vulnerable households and groups 辨别社会团体、文化习俗、经济活动、地理区域特征、脆弱的家庭和群体,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,St
11、age,3,COMMUNITY RISK ASSESSMENT 社区风险评估,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Hazard Mapping 绘制致灾因子图Vulnerability assessment 易损性评估Capacity assessment 能力评估Peoples perception of disaster risks 人们对灾害风险的认识,=,The size of the problem and the opportunities to deal with 问题的大小和应对机会,Stages in Community Based Disaster Ris
12、k Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,4,RISK REDUCTION PLANNING 减轻灾害风险计划,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Preparedness measures 准备措施Mitigation measures 减轻措施Roles,responsibilities,schedules,inputs,outputs 角色责任、日程表、输入、输出Community target and indicators 社区目标和指标,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Manag
13、ement Process 社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,4,RISK REDUCTION PLANNING 减轻灾害风险计划,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Preparedness measures 准备措施Mitigation measures 减轻措施Roles,responsibilities,schedules,inputs,outputs 角色责任、日程表、输入、输出Community target and indicators 社区目标和指标,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management
14、Process 社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,5,IMPLEMENTING AND MONITORING 实施和监测,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Strengthening of Community Response Organization 加强社区的响应组织Community mobilization in risk reduction activities 动员社区开展减轻风险活动,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤.,Stage,6,EVAL
15、UATION AND FEEDBACK 评估和反馈,COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT 社区参与,Lessons learned 学习教训Documentation and dissemination of best practices 归档文字材料，并传播最佳实践经验,Stages in Community Based Disaster Risk Management Process社区灾害风险管理过程的步骤,灾害与发展的关系,Cause and effect relationship between disasters and development is ignored.灾害与发
16、展之间的因果关系被忽略Disasters are seen in the context of emergency response.对灾害只看到紧急响应的一面Development programs are not assessed in the context of disaster risks.发展项目没有考虑灾害风险因素Communities under disaster stress are seen as too turbulent for development initiatives.受灾害威胁的社区对于发展活动过于狂热,Political system securing ci
17、tizen participation in decision making 政治体系应保证公众参与决策Economic system able to generate surpluses and technical knowledge on a self reliant basis 经济体系能够在自力更生的基础上产生剩余和技术知识Social system that ensure equitable development and provide solutions for tensions arising from disharmonious development 社会体系能够保证社会公
18、正，并能解决由于不协调发展带来的紧张关系,Development Requires 发展的要求,Production system that respects the obligation to preserve the ecological base for development 生产体系能够在遵循保护生态环境的基础上发展Technological system that can search new solutions 技术体系能够找到新的解决方法Sensitive,flexible and self-correcting administrative system 敏感、灵活和能自我校
19、正的行政体系,The Relationship Between Disaster and Development 灾害与发展的关系,Negative Realm 负面领域,-,Positive Realm 正面领域,+,Development Realm 发展领域,Disaster Realm 灾害领域,Disasters can provide development opportunities 灾害可为发展提供机会,Development can reduce vulnerability 发展可以减轻易损性,Disasters can set back development 灾害可以阻碍
20、发展,Development can increase vulnerability 发展可增加易损性,Factors that could help decision-makers in risk mitigation investment analysis 帮助决策者进行减轻投资风险分析的要素,Disaster Impact 灾害的影响,How disaster effects can vary from one type of hazard to another 灾害影响如何随致灾因子的类型不同而不同，但资源均受到损毁，包括essential goods(food,raw material
21、s)and availability of facilities(housing,infrastructure facilities,health,education etc.)基本物资(食物、原材料)和设施(房屋、基础设施、健康、教育等)Suffering to low income earners will be higher.对低收入者的影响更甚,Reconstruction Period after Disaster is an Opportunity for General Assistance 灾后重建时期是获得综合援助的机会,Failure analyses for better
22、 application of design codes.进行失败分析以便更好地应用设计法规Coordination of lending programs,grants and subsidies.协调贷款项目、赠款和补助Higher level of policy framework development,improvement of centrally driven accountability systems.制定更高一级的政策框架，改进受中央主导的责任制系统,Review and enhancement of financial approval procedures 检查和提高财
23、政审批的程序Involvement of non-formal sector in development work 非正规部门参与发展工作,Cost Effectiveness of Development Programs 发展项目的成本效用,Categories of impact and consequent losses due to disasters:灾害影响的种类和相应的损失Direct monetary effects(infrastructure and buildings)直接经济损失(基础设施和建筑)Indirect monetary effects(loss of p
24、roduction and clean up costs)间接经济损失(生产受损和清理成本),Direct non-monetary effects(deaths,injuries,loss of cultural items)直接非经济影响(死亡、受伤、文物损失)Indirect non-monetary effects(disruption to education,health)间接非经济影响(教育中断、健康)Loss of non-renewable natural resources 非再生自然资源的损失,Building Links Between Disasters and De
25、velopment-Communitys Role 建立灾害和发展的联系 社区的角色,Community involvement in all development initiatives is essential,since hazard prone communities are the victims of disasters and beneficiaries of development programs.社区参与所有的有关发展的活动是最基本的，因为受致灾因子影响的社区是灾害的受害者和发展的受益者,HAZARD ASSESSMENT致灾因子评估,Classification of
26、Hazards 致灾因子分类,Natural 自然的Technological 技术的Societal/Complex社会的/综合的,Origin or Causes of Hazards致灾因子的起源或起因,Origin or Causes of Hazards致灾因子的起源或起因,For example,what will be the secondary hazards associated with earthquake?例如，与地震相关的继发灾害是什么?,One Hazard Causing a Secondary Hazard一种致灾因子引发另一种致灾因子,In case of E
27、arthquake,there can be further hazards such as:发生地震时，可能会发生继发的致灾因子Building collapse 建筑物倒塌 Dam failure 大坝损毁Fire 火灾Hazardous material spill Interruption of power/water supply/communication/transportation/waste disposal 有害材料溢出，造成中断电力、供水、通讯、交通和废物处理Landslide 山体滑坡Soil liquefaction 土壤液化Tsunami(tidal wave)海啸
28、（潮汐）,One Hazard Causing a Secondary Hazard一种致灾因子引发另一种致灾因子,HAZARD ASSESSMENT致灾因子评估,The process of studying the nature of hazards determining its essential features(degree of severity,duration,extent of the impact area)and their relationship.研究致灾因子性质的过程，决定致灾因子的本质特征（严重程度、持续时间、波及范围）以及它们之间的关系,Quantitativ
29、e Approach 定量方法Use mathematical functions with numerical values 运用带有数值的数学函数Each variable will describe the relationship among parameters that characterize the phenomena 每个变量表示描述现象性质的参数间的关系,ASSESSMENT APPROACHES评估方法,Use qualitative descriptions(such as low,medium or high)instead of numerical values 使
30、用定性的描述（例如低、中或高）而不是数值,Qualitative Approach 定性方法,ASSESSMENT APPROACHES评估方法（续）,Probabilistic Approach 概率方法Estimates the probability of each hazard affecting an area or region,and likelihood of occurrence and can be determined through research studies,simulation studies,etc(eg.Flood/erosion simulation s
31、tudies,slope stability calculations,landslide hazard zonation).评估每一个影响地区或区域的致灾因子的概率和这些致灾因子发生的可能，以及通过调查研究和模拟研究确定这些灾害的可能性（例如 洪水/腐蚀模拟研究、斜坡稳定性计算、山体滑坡致灾因子的地带分布）,ASSESSMENT APPROACHES评估方法（续）,Usage of Hazard Information in Natural Hazard Assessment自然致灾因子评估中致灾因子信息的使用,Sources:来源Myths and legends?神话和传奇Histori
32、c records?历史记录Research data?研究数据,Hazard Zonation mapping 致灾因子地带分布绘图Hazard maps outline zones that are defined in terms of the probability of occurrence of potentially damaging phenomena within a certain span of time within a specified location or an area.(Varnes,1984)致灾因子地图所描画的地带是根据特定位置或区域、在特定的时间跨度内
33、潜在的破坏情况发生的概率来确定的,Hazard Assessment Techniques and Tools 致灾因子评估技术和工具,Hazard maps outline zones that are defined in terms of the probability of occurrence of potentially damaging phenomena within a certain span of time within a specified location or an area.(Varnes,1984)致灾因子地图所描画的地带是根据特定位置或区域、在特定的时间跨度
34、内潜在的破坏情况发生的概率来确定的,Factors to consider in understanding the nature and behavior of hazards理解致灾因子的性质和表现时考虑的因素,Seasonality 季节性Duration 持续时间,Origin 起因Warning Signs and signals 警告标志和信号Forewarning 预警Force 力量Speed of Onset 发生的速度Frequency 频率,HAZARD ASSESSEMENT EXAMPLE LANDSLIDES 致灾因子评估范例-山体滑坡,presence of ac
35、tive or potential slope movement/s 活跃或潜在的斜坡移动出现 the types and causes of movement 移动的类型和起因accurate evaluation of the geology,hydro-geology,landforms,slope gradient etc.地质学、水文地质学、地形、倾斜度的准确评估等interrelated factors such as environmental conditions and human activities.交关因素譬如环境状况和人类活动,Recognition of the 认
36、识,Available tools to asses the Landslide Hazard 评估山体滑坡致灾因子时可利用的工具,Map analysis 地图分析Analysis of aerial photography and imagery 航空照片和影像分析Field reconnaissance 野外勘察Aerial reconnaissance 航空勘察Drilling 演练Acoustic imagery and profiling 声学描述和概览Geophysical studies 地球物理学研究Computerized landslide terrain analysi
37、s 计算机化的山体滑坡地形分析Instrumentation 仪器使用,Data presentation 数据介绍,Methods to be considered.应该考虑的方法Maps 地图Landslide inventories,landslide possibility maps,flood hazard maps山体滑坡记录、山体滑坡可能性地图、洪水致灾因子地图Cross sections 横截面GIS and Remote Sensing 地理信息系统和遥感Participatory Risk Assessment(PRA)参与式风险评估,Participatory Risk
38、Assessment Tools参与式风险评估工具,Review of secondary data,particularly regional/provincial information related to hazards,risks,vulnerabilities and capacities 检查次要数据，尤其与致灾因子、风险、易损性和能力有关的地区/省的信息Historical Profile Mapping Transect 历史简介 绘图 横端面Seasonal Calendar 季节日历Institutional and Social Network Analysis 机构和
39、社会网络分析Health and Nutritional Assessment 卫生和营养评估Livelihoods/coping analysis 生计/应对分析Problem Tree 问题树Ranking 排序HVCA 致灾因子/易损性/能力评估,General Information on community level 社区的一般信息,Specific Information at community,household and individual level 社区、家庭和个人的特殊信息,Sequence of Tools in Time 工具的时间序列,Participatory
40、 Risk Assessment Tools参与式风险评估工具,REVIEW OF SECONDARY DATA 次要数据回顾DIRECT OBSERVATION 直接观察SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEW 半结构性采访HISTORICAL PROFILE 历史简介MAPPING 绘图TRANSECT 横断面SEASONAL CALENDAR 季节日历,Participatory Risk Assessment Tools参与式风险评估工具（续）,RESOURCE MAPPING 绘制资源分布图INSTITUTIONAL&SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS 机构和社
41、会网络分析PROBLEM TREE 问题树RANKING 排序HCVA 致灾因子/能力/易损性评估,VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT易损性评估,什么是易损性,A set of prevailing or consequent conditions which adversely affect the communitys ability to prevent,mitigate,prepare for or respond to hazard event一系列主要的或随后发生的状况，这些状况对社区针对某一致灾因子的防御、减轻、准备或响应的能力造成负面影响,Vulnerabilit
42、y Assessment 易损性评估,A process to identify what elements are at risk per hazard type,and to analyze the root causes of why these elements are at risk 一个辨认每种致灾因子类型的风险元素的过程，在这个过程中，还要分析产生这些风险元素的根本原因,Categories of Vulnerability 易损性种类,Physical/Material 物理性的/物质性的Social/Organizational 社会性的/组织性的Motivation/Att
43、itudinal 动机性的/态度性的,Vulnerability Assessment 易损性评估,We should recognize that vulnerability assessment is complex 我们应该认识到易损性评估是复杂的Vulnerability is linked to location,sector,social group,etc 易损性与位置、部门和社会群体相联Vulnerability and poverty are strongly linked 易损性和贫穷之间有很紧密的关系,Vulnerability Assessment Example易损性评估的例子（续）,Thank You谢谢您,
