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1、Chapter 9,Valuing Stocks股票估值,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-2,Chapter Outline,9.1 Stock Prices,Returns,and the Investment Horizon9.2 The Dividend-Discount Model9.3 Total Payout and Free Cash Flow Valuation Models9.4 Valuation Based on Comparable Firms9.5 Information,Com
2、petition,and Stock Prices,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-3,Chapter Outline,9.1股价、回报率与投资期限9.2红利折现模型9.3总支付和自由现金流估值模型9.4基于可比公司的估值9.5信息、竞争和股票价格,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-4,Learning Objectives,Describe,in words,the Law of One Price value fo
3、r a common stock,including the discount rate that should be used.Calculate the total return of a stock,given the dividend payment,the current price,and the previous price.Use the dividend-discount model to compute the value of a dividend-paying companys stock,whether the dividends grow at a constant
4、 rate starting now or at some time in the future.Discuss the determinants of future dividends and growth rate in dividends,and the sensitivity of the stock price to estimates of those two factors.,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-5,Learning Objectives(contd),Given the ret
5、ention rate and the return on new investment,calculate the growth rate in dividends,earnings,and share price.Describe circumstances in which cutting the firms dividend will raise the stock price.Assuming a firm has a long-term constant growth rate after time N+1,use the constant growth model to calc
6、ulate the terminal value of the stock at time N.Compute the stock value of a firm that pays dividends as well as repurchasing shares.Use the discounted free cash flow model to calculate the value of stock in a company with leverage.Use comparable firm multiples to estimate stock value.,Copyright 200
7、7 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-6,Learning Objectives(contd),Explain why several valuation models are required to value a stock.Describe the impact of efficient markets hypothesis on positive-NPV trades by individuals with no inside information.Discuss why investors who identify posi
8、tive-NPV trades should be skeptical about their findings,unless they have inside information or a competitive advantage.As part of that,describe the return the average investor should expect to get.Assess the impact of stock valuation on recommended managerial actions.,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison
9、-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-7,9.1 Stock Prices,Returns,and the Investment Horizon 股价、回报率与投资期限,A One-Year Investor一年期投资者Potential Cash Flows 股票有两个可能的现金流Dividend 红利Sale of Stock 出售股票获得现金Timeline for One-Year Investor一年期投资的时间线Since the cash flows are risky,we must discount them at the equity cost of
10、 capital.由于现金流是有风险的，必须基于股权资本成本（rE）对现金流进行贴现。,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-8,9.1 Stock Prices,Returns,and the Investment Horizon(contd),A One-Year InvestorIf the current stock price were less than this amount,expect investors to rush in and buy it,driving up the stocks
11、price.如果当前的股价低于这个数额（投资的净现值为正），可以预期，投资者将竞相购买它，从而推动了股票的价格上涨。If the stock price exceeded this amount,selling it would cause the stock price to quickly fall.如果股票价格超过这个数额，则出售股票（产生正的净现值），股票价格会迅速下跌。,公式9.1,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-9,Dividend Yields,Capital Gains,and Total
12、 Returns红利收益率，资本利得，总回报率,Dividend YieldCapital GainCapital Gain Rate资本利得率Total Return总回报率：等于红利收益率加资本利得率Dividend Yield+Capital Gain RateThe expected total return of the stock should equal the expected return of other investments available in the market with equivalent risk.股票的预期总回报率应该等于市场上具有同等风险的其他投资的
13、预期收益率。,公式9.2,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-10,Example 9.1,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-11,假设预期龙斯药店来年将发放每股0.56美元红利，年底每股市价45.5美元，如果同等风险投资的期望回报率为6.8%,那么今天龙斯药店股票价格是多少？在这个价格下，红利收益率和资本利得率是多少？,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights re
14、served.,9-12,Example 9.1(contd),Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-13,A Multi-Year Investor多年期投资者,What is the price if we plan on holding the stock for two years?如果我们计划持有股票两年，那么股票价格会怎么样？时间线如下，使股价等于未来现金流的现值，看得出以下公式：,公式9.3,公式9.1与公式9.3有不同吗？答案是否定的，没有不同。,Copyright 2007 Pearson A
15、ddison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-14,What is the price if we plan on holding the stock for N years?如果我们计划持有股票N年，那么股票价格会怎么样？对任意年限继续公式9.3这一过程，即以下一年股票持有者愿意的支付的价格替换最后的股价，即持有N年,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-15,A Multi-Year Investor(contd),This is known as the Dividend Di
16、scount Model.这个公式就叫做红利折现模型Note that the above equation(9.4)holds for any horizon N.Thus all investors(with the same beliefs)will attach the same value to the stock,independent of their investment horizons.注意：公式9.4是持有股票N期的折现模型。公式内涵着：所有（对所投资的股票具有相同信念的）投资者将对股票赋予相同的价值，而不管投资期限的长短。即他们持有多久，以及是以红利还是资本利得方式得到
17、回报都是与价值不相关的。,公式9.4,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-16,A Multi-Year Investor(contd),对于公司总是支付红利，并且公司从未被收购的特殊情形，永远持有股票就成为可能。令N无穷大，则股票价格：The price of any stock is equal to the present value of the expected future dividends it will pay.股票的价格等于股票将要支付的期望未来红利的现值。,公式9.5,Copyright
18、 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-17,9.2 The Discount-Dividend Model 红利折现模型,Constant Dividend Growth 固定（或不变）红利增长率The simplest forecast for the firms future dividends states that they will grow at a constant rate,g,forever.（公式9.5以公司将要支付的期望未来红利确定股票的价值。但估计这些红利对于遥远而未知的未来而言那是相当苦难的。）一种常用
19、的近似估计是假设从长远来看，红利将按照一个不变的比率增长。则股票价值：即为一个固定增长率的永续年金的现值,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-18,9.2 The Discount-Dividend Model(contd),Constant Dividend Growth Model 固定红利增长率模型The value of the firm depends on the current dividend level,the cost of equity,and the growth rate.（根据固定
20、红利增长率模型）公司的价值取决于当前的红利水平除以经红利增长率调整后的股权资本成本,公式9.6,从公式中可以看出，红利增长率等于期望的资本利得率 公式9.7,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-19,Example 9.2,联合爱迪生公司，是一家受政府管制的公用事业公司，主要服务于纽约市地区。假设公司计划在未来第一年每股支付2.3美元的红利。如果其股权资本成本是7%，预计未来每年红利增长为2%，估计联合爱迪生公司的股票价值。,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All
21、rights reserved.,9-20,Example 9.2(contd),Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-21,Dividends Versus Investment and Growth红利与投资及增长,根据固定红利增长率模型，股价随着当前红利水平Div1和期望增长率g的增加而增加。要使股票的价格最大化，公司要把两个变量都提高。那么就需要权衡：提高增长率可能需要加大投资，而用于投资的资金就不能用于支付红利。通过固定红利增长率模型来深入的研究下这个问题。什么决定了公司的红利增长率？A Simple
22、 Model of Growth 一个简单的增长模型Dividend Payout Ratio 红利支付率The fraction of earnings paid as dividends each year定义红利支付率为公司每年将其收益作为红利支付的部分。则t期的每股红利如下,公式9.8,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-22,Dividends Versus Investment and Growth(contd),A Simple Model of GrowthAssuming the numbe
23、r of shares outstanding is constant,the firm can do two things to increase its dividend:假设公司流通股是固定的，公司可以通过两种方式提高红利Increase its earnings(net income)增加收益（净收益）Increase its dividend payout rate 增加红利支付率,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-23,Dividends Versus Investment and Growth
24、(contd),A Simple Model of GrowthA firm can do one of two things with its earnings（公司对收益的支配，可从以下两个方面选择其一）：It can pay them out to investors.支付给投资者It can retain and reinvest them.留存进行再投资假设如果没有新投资，公司就不会有增长，于是公司当前产生的收益水平就将保持不变；如果公司所有未来收益的增加，都只来自用留存收益进行的投资。那么就有如下页公式：,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.
25、All rights reserved.,9-24,Dividends Versus Investment and Growth(contd),A Simple Model of GrowthRetention Rate 留存比率Fraction of current earnings that the firm retains当前公司收益被留存的比例,公式9.10,公式9.9,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-25,Dividends Versus Investment and Growth(contd)
26、,A Simple Model of GrowthIf the firm keeps its retention rate constant,then the growth rate in dividends will equal the growth rate of earnings.如果公司选择保持红利支付率固定不变，那么红利增长率就等于收益的增长率,公式9.11,公式9.12,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-26,Dividends Versus Investment and Growth(cont
27、d),Profitable Growth 盈利性增长If a firm wants to increase its share price,should it cut its dividend and invest more,or should it cut investment and increase its dividend?如果公司想提高股票价格，它应该减少红利并更多的投资，还是削减投资增加红利支付？The answer will depend on the profitability of the firms investments.答案是“取决于公司投资的盈利能力”Cutting
28、the firms dividend to increase investment will raise the stock price if,and only if,the new investments have a positive NPV.只要新投资有正的净现值，消减公司的红利支付，增加投资，将提高股票价格,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-27,Example 9.3为盈利性增长而削减红利,克兰体育用品公司预计来年的每股收益是6美元。公司不打算将这些收益再投资而获得增长，而是计划将所有的收益都作为
29、红利发放给股东。在公司未来没有增长这种预期下，公司当前的股票价格是60美元。假设在可预见的将来，公司可以消减其红利支付率到75%，并用留存收益开设新店，预期这些新店的投资回报率是12%。假设公司的股权资本成本不变，新政策对公司的股价会产生什么影响？,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-28,Example 9.3(contd),Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-29,Example 9.4无价值（没有收益）的增长,假设问题
30、同9.4，但现在假设新投资的回报率是8%，而不是12%。给定公司来年的期望收益是6美元，股权资本成本是10%，在这种情况下，公司当前的股价将会是多少？,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-30,Example 9.4(contd),Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-31,小结：比较例9.3与例9.4,公司消减红利追求增长的效应，关键取决于新投资的回报率。如果新投资的回报率（12%）超过股权资本成本（10%），投资具有正的净
31、现值，股价如果新投资的回报率（8%）低于股权资本成本（10%），投资具有负的净现值，股价新投资的NPV为正时，消减红利增加投资才会提升股价。,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-32,翻译轶事,If you do not leave me,we will die together.你如果不离开我，我就和你同归于尽。（四级水平）你若不离不弃，我必生死相依。（六级水平）问世间情为何物？直教人生死相许。（八级水平）天地合，乃敢与君绝。（专家水平）你在或不在，爱就在那里，不增不减。（活佛水平）,Copyright 2
32、007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-33,Changing Growth Rates改变增长率,We cannot use the constant dividend growth model to value a stock if the growth rate is not constant.如果增长率不固定，那么就不能用固定红利增长率模型For example,young firms often have very high initial earnings growth rates.During this period o
33、f high growth,these firms often retain 100%of their earnings to exploit profitable investment opportunities.As they mature,their growth slows.At some point,their earnings exceed their investment needs and they begin to pay dividends.例如，成功的初创公司通常具有很高的初创收益增长率。在高增长期，公司通常保留100%的收益开发有利可图的投资机会。当公司进入成熟期，增长
34、率放缓。在此阶段，收益超过公司的投资需要，于是公司就开始支付红利,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-34,Changing Growth Rates(contd),Although we cannot use the constant dividend growth model directly when growth is not constant,we can use the general form of the model to value a firm by applying the consta
35、nt growth model to calculate the future share price of the stock once the expected growth rate stabilizes.当增长率不固定时，尽管我们不能直接应用固定红利增长率模型，我们可以用红利折现模型的一般形式为这样的公司估值：一旦该公司进入成熟期，期望增长率会变得稳定，就可以应用固定增长率模型，计算公司的未来股价PN。,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-35,Changing Growth Rates(contd)
36、,Dividend-Discount Model with Constant Long-Term Growth 不变长期增长率下的红利折现模型,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-36,Example 9.5对具有两个不同增长率的公司估值,Small Fry 公司发明了一种马铃薯片，看起来和口感像法式炸薯条。市场对这一产品的反应格外好，公司决定将所有收益进行再投资以扩大经营。在过去的一年，公司的收益是每股2美元，预期收益在未来的4年内以20%的增长率增长。到那时，其他公司很可能也退出了更有竞争力的类似产品。分
37、析师预计，在第4年末，公司将消减投资，开始将60%的收益作为红利支付，于是公司的增长放缓，长期增长率为4%。如果公司的股权资本成本是8%，今天每股股价是多少？,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-37,Example 9.5(contd),Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-38,Limitations of the Dividend-Discount Model红利折现模型的局限性,There is a tremendou
38、s amount of uncertainty associated with forecasting a firms dividend growth rate and future dividends.（红利折现模型基于未来支付给股东的红利估计股票的价值）未来红利的预测具有很大的不确定性。Small changes in the assumed dividend growth rate can lead to large changes in the estimated stock price.假设红利增长率微小的改变，都可能导致估计的股价大幅度变动，且难以知道估计的股利增长率哪一个更合理。
39、总之，预测红利需要预测公司的收益、红利支付率和未来股票数量，但收益和利息支出有关，股数和红利支付率取决于公司是否用部分收益回购股票。而借款和回购决策是管理层自行决定的，要预测它显然有很多认为主管因素存在，比预测项目现金流更困难。,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-39,9.3 Total Payout and Free Cash Flow Valuation Models 总支付模型和自由现金流估值模型,Share Repurchases and the Total Payout Model股票回购与总支付
40、模型Share Repurchase 股票回购When the firm uses excess cash to buy back its own stock 公司用过剩的现金买回本公司的股票Implications for the Dividend-Discount Model 股票回购对红利折现模型的影响有两点：The more cash the firm uses to repurchase shares,the less it has available to pay dividends.越来越多的现金用于回购股票，可以用于发放红利的现金流就越少By repurchasing,the
41、firm decreases the number of shares outstanding,which increases its earnings per and dividends per share.通过回购股票，公司减少流通股数量，增加每股收益和每股股利,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-40,9.3 Total Payout and Free Cash Flow Valuation Models(contd),Share Repurchases and the Total Payout Mod
42、el在前面红利折现模型中，从单一股东的角度估计每股价格，对股东将要收到的红利折现若公司回购股票那？则总支付模型更可靠,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-41,9.3 Total Payout and Free Cash Flow Valuation Models(contd),Share Repurchases and the Total Payout ModelTotal Payout Model 总支付模型：对公司向股东的支付，即公司花费在红利和股票回购上总金额进行折现，然后除以当前流通股股数，以确定每
43、股价格。Values all of the firms equity,rather than a single share.You discount total dividends and share repurchases and use the growth rate of earnings(rather than earnings per share)when forecasting the growth of the firms total payouts.总支付模型对公司所有股权而非单一股票进行估值。在预测公司总支付增长时，对红利和股票回购总额进行折现，并使用收益增长率（而不是每股收
44、益）。,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-42,Example 9.6,泰坦公司有流通股21700万股，预期在本年末的收益是86000万美元。公司计划将收益的30%作为红利发放，使用收益的20%回购股票，总计支出为收益的50%。预期公司的收益每年增长7.5%，并且上述支付的比率保持不变。此外，假设公司的股权资本成本是10%。要求确定泰坦公司的股价。,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-43,Example 9.6(cont
45、d),Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-44,The Discounted Free Cash Flow Model折现自由现金流估值模型,Discounted Free Cash Flow Model 折现自由现金流量模型Determines the value of the firm to all investors,including both equity and debt holders(该模型先)确定对所有投资者（包括股东和债权人）而言的公司的总价值；然后再对股票估值。The enterpris
46、e value can be interpreted as the net cost of acquiring the firms equity,taking its cash,paying off all debt,and owning the unlevered business.公司价值可以解释为取得股权、取得其现金、偿付其所有债务，从而拥有无杠杆公司和业务，所支付的净成本。优点：对公司估值，不需要明确预测红利、股票回购或债务的运用,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-45,The Discounted
47、 Free Cash Flow Model(contd),Valuing the Enterprise 估算公司价值为了估算公司价值，要计算公司向股东的总支付自由现金流（FCF）的现值Free Cash Flow 自由现金流Cash flow available to pay both debt holders and equity holders.是公司可向所有投资者（包括股东和债权人）支付的现金流Discounted Free Cash Flow Model,公式9.18,公式9.19,公式9.20,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rig
48、hts reserved.,9-46,折现自由现金流模型与红利折现模型的区别：,红利折现模型中，公司的现金和债务，通过利息收入和费用对收益的影响，间接地被包含在模型中。折现自由现金流模型中，不考虑利息收入和费用，自由现金流的计算是基于息税前收益EBIT，然后用公司的总价值直接减去现金和债务。,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-47,The Discounted Free Cash Flow Model(contd),Implementing the Model 模型的应用Since we are disco
49、unting cash flows to both equity holders and debt holders,the free cash flows should be discounted at the firms weighted average cost of capital,rwacc.If the firm has no debt,rwacc=rE.由于我们要对将要支付给债权人和股东的自由现金流折现，因此应该使用公司的加权平均资本成本，rwacc,进行折现；如果公司没有债务，加权平均资本成本就等于股权资本成本，rwacc=rE.加权平均资本成本是公司必须支付给投资者的期望回报率
50、，以补偿他们持有公司债务和股权的风险。,Copyright 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley.All rights reserved.,9-48,The Discounted Free Cash Flow Model(contd),Implementing the ModelOften,the terminal value is estimated by assuming a constant long-run growth rate gFCF for free cash flows beyond year N,so that（通常，公司价值的估计也是通过对超过N年的自由
