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1、STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET:TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS,Real Tech ConferencePeter Stanger,E-COMMERCE IS DEAD,“E-Commerce Is Dead,Long Live E-Commerce”The Industry Standard,April 2000,“Going,Going,Gone:Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”F,April 2000,“Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods
2、?The answer is no,even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”Bryan Rutbert,Warburg Dillon Read,“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures.Look at A-if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.”Warren Pack
3、ard,Draper Fisher Jurvetson,TOM SIEBELCEO,Siebel Systems,“If you cant generate profits,significant market share and customer satisfaction,you re out of business.”“On the B2B exchange side,I dont think anyone will survive.They are all gone.”,THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONG,IS THE REVOLUTION OVER
4、?July 28,1794,THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS,1860-1890,1895-1925,FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK,LONG DISTANCE,Wholesale(Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnection,RetailSales/marketingAccount managementBilling,RetailSales/marketingAccount managementBilling,NetworkDesign
5、/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnection,Retail,RetailNetwork intelligenceValue added services,Wholesale service creationNetwork intelligenceValue added services,Network management/dispatch,Wholesale,PHARMACEUTICALS,Research,Development,Trials,Registration,Manufac-turing,Sales&marketing,In
6、creased development costsRole of blockbusters increasingQuality outsourcers availableEasier coordination,1980s,1990s,Research,Development,Trials,Registration,Manufac-turing,Sales&marketing,Academic labs,Biotech firms,Contract research organizations,Contractmfrs,PBMs,JVs/licensing,ELECTRIC UTILITIES,
7、COMPUTER INDUSTRY,AT&T,MCI and Sprint,fragmented radically,Microprocessors,integrated circuits,memory chips,Computers,Operating systems,Applications software,Marketing,sales,and distribution,Common standardsTime based competition,1995,Intel,Motorola,AMD,Compaq,Dell,Apple,Packard Bell,IBM,DOS and Win
8、dows,UNIX,Mac OS,OS/2,Microsoft Office,WordPerfect,Others,Retail,Superstores,On-line,Mail order,NeXt,IBM,Digital,1997,Primaryfuel,Powergeneration,Trading,Distribution,Backward integration to reduce riskForward integration to open supply channels,Scale through focusing on huge power plants,Synergy th
9、rough bundling capabilities of general trading and energy business,New services for the customer,Ruhrkohle,Mobil,BP,Shell,National Power(UK),Electrobel(Belgium),RWE(Germany),Norsk Kraftmegling(Norway),Enron,United Utilities(UK),South-ernWater,Eastern Elect-ricity(UK),Stadt-werkeMunch-en(Ger-many),19
10、90,1995,1985,1990,Statkraft(Norway),Oslo Energi(Norway),EVO(Germany),IVO(Finland),MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES,MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital Photography Example,Camera,Film,Equipment,Paper,chemicals,Photo-finisher,Reprint/enlarg
11、e,Store/display,Share with others,Processing,Analog value chain Kodak and Fuji dominate,Major players(2000 U.S.market share),CanonNikonOlympusMinoltaKodakFuji,Kodak(66%)Fuji,Kodak(Qualex)(40%)FujiPhotohuts,Album manufacturersFrame manufacturers,Mail services,disposables,EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RE
12、TAILING CONTINUES,65.1,17.8,Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0,3.0 and 4.0,Shop.org surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group;SEC filings;Media Metrix and Harris Interactive data;industry association reports;analyst reportsNote:Excludes financial brokerage,11.5,15.2,North American Busin
13、ess-to-Consumer Revenues($B),20.6,+132%,+66%,+46%,26.7,44.5,Online channel 10%share in several categories,CATALOGUERS ARE WINNING,EBIT Margin in%of Revenues,1999,2000,Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0,3.0,4.0;Shop.org Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group,ADVANTAGE INCUMBENTS,Onlin
14、e Retailing,DsMarketplacesCLECs,CataloguersGE,Big 3ILECs/IXCs,B2B,Telecom,RENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALS,THE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEAD,Illustrative view of transforming forces,Circa 2010,Technology),Globalization,Deregulation,Electroniccommerce,Source:BCG analysis,Deregu
15、lationandglobalizationindex(1999=100),Technology andelectroniccommerce index(1999=100),A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE:LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!,Asset turns(sales/assets),Cash flow margin in%of sales(%),Retail,Construction Machinery,Automobile,Chemicals,Utilities,Real Estate,Airline,Auto parts,Aerospace,Telecom,Source:BCG Analysis,A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE:LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!,AccessFibreWirelessSatelliteAsset productivity focus,e-Procuremente-SalesMargin focus,Opportunity Space,Source:BCG Analysis,
