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1、2023/9/26,Modelling Human Decision-Making in Simulation Models of Conflict,James Moffat(Senior Fellow,Dstl,UK),Abstract,NEC:Network Enabled Capability(Digitisation of the Battlespace)Core:an understanding of how better information and a better approach to Command and Control lead to both better deci
2、sions and improved execution or operations.,abstract,Research on this subject:A conceptual understanding of and improved approaches to C2Quantified Operational Analysis(OA)models,Main content,A new approach to the Representation of C2,based on the understanding from Complexity Theory.Deliberate and
3、Rapid Planning processesA new generation of simulation modelsValidation of the models with experimental dataAssess the ability to understand and model network-centric approaches to C2,introduction,Cybernetics:the science of control and communication in the animal and in the machine,variety,The numbe
4、r of different accessible states of a system,Ashbys Law of Requisite Variety:the variety of the controller must balance the variety of the system,development,The Industrial Age The Information Age,Need to construct a representation of the human command and decision-making process which gives rise to
5、 high variety,Deliberate Planning,Rapid Planning,RP&DP,Rapid Planning:react fast to local circumstances,constrained by more strategic Deliberate Planning in order to produce the requisite variety of commandDeliberate Planning:represents decision-making based on a rational choice among alternatives.,
6、C2 levels and operational levels,Corresponds to the Industrial Age C2,The highest maturity level for the employed force,The nec journey,Building the simulation model set,RP,a feedback process in cybernetic terms,based on the psychological construct of naturalistic decision-making.DP,a feedforward pr
7、ocess in cybernetic terms,in which the emphasis is on the explict generation,and subsequent evaluation,of alternative courses of action.(mathematical algorithms to implement these two approches to human decision-making are described in Moffat 2002),Examples of the simulation models,Examples of the s
8、imulation models,Validation of DP&RP Through comparison,A detailed comparision about casualties suffered made between COMAND model(160 replications)and the Falklands comflict of 1982Three main types of agent decision-makingDeliberate campaign plan for maritime assetsRapid Planning maritime missionsA
9、ir missions as a function of the sensor information on targets,Another model,COMAND is cross-environment and at the campaign level,while SIMBAT is a tactical model of army combat at the Battlegroup levelComparison between SIMBAT model and the historical battle about the times to achieve key objectiv
10、es with the record,Validation of RP,SDG,single decision gamingCBDG,card based decision games,Two questions about SDG,How the objective inputs(based on incoming information)and the subjective inputs(based on an individuals training,experience and personality)combine in the decision-making processHow
11、consideration of utility influence this process;im particular,when there are conflicting local and global values within the decision-making structure,Validation of RP using sDg,Simplified:two levels of attributes.First set of attributes measures the local outcome of the mission in terms of relativel
12、y immediate,“close-to-home”considerations.The second set of attributes measures longer-term and more global concerns related to more strategic considerations.,Theoretical perspective,The choice of course of action depends on the interpretation of mission orders and the subjective situation assessmen
13、t.The relative importance each commander places on local and global objectives is central to a conceptual understanding of“value”in decision-making.,The practice,The decision-makers utility function,U(d,),has to capture the trade-off between the different goals by assigning weights(1)=1(1),2(1)(1 is
14、 a set of shape parameters describing his utility function)Probability distribution function pj(j|d,2),War-fighting scenario,Peace-support scenario,The decision model,1(1),2(1),U1(d,1),U2(d,1)(1)=1(1),2(1)U(j|d),pj(j),Validation of RP using CBG,Information was presented to the commander using cards,Move to state j,Statistical model:,assessment,Implementation of the RP and process and aspects of the DP process in these models“NEC Transition”epoch of NEC journeyShortcoming:relative inability to model the agility of task organized force units.,the endThanks,
