《【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件).ppt》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《【大学课件】国际贸易International Trade(英文课件).ppt（51页珍藏版）》请在三一办公上搜索。
1、国 际 贸 易International Trade,Outline of the Talk,Integration of TradeDisintegration of ProductionChinas Current Trade SituationSino-U.S.Trade RelationshipTraditional Trade TheoryCurrent Research TopicsQ&A,http:/,Integration of Trade,How much do we trade?Trade still remains a seemingly small fraction o
2、f GDP for rich countries.The decades leading up to 1913 was a golden age of global trade and investment.The global integration of trade keeps the same level.Table 1(Feenstra,1998),http:/,http:/,Integration of Trade,http:/,The World Is More Integrated Than Ever,Some facts are hidden.Industrial countr
3、ies have increasing shares of their economies devoted to services rather than manufacturing.Make comparison from different views.Should measure merchandise trade relative to merchandise value-added.Almost all countries have experienced substantial growth in trade.Table 2,http:/,http:/,Table 1.2 Merc
4、handise Trade Relative to GDP and Merchandise Value-Added,1960-1990(percent),http:/,Table 1.1 U.S.Merchandise Trade by Industry,2001,Shares of Total Trade and Production or Use(percentages),Table 1.3 Percentage Distribution of Exports by Major Trading Groups,1985-1998,How to Explain Growing Trade?,T
5、rade LiberalizationGATT/WTORegional Trade Agreements:CUSFTA,NAFTA,CARICOM,CACM,MERCOSUR,ASEAN,SPARTECA.Falling Transportation Cost 2/5 trade growth can be explained by these two factors.When trading partners becomes more similar in size.-Example:World GDP=150;Scenario 1:Country A=100;country B=25,co
6、untry C=25Scenario 2:Country A=50;country B=50,country C=50Maximum exports are different.,http:/,Disintegration of Production,Disintegration of production itself leads to more trade due,in large part,to the calculation method.OutsourcingBarbie doll story(Tempest,1996)Sell for about$10 in the U.S.Mad
7、e in Mainland China,but export from Hong Kong for$265 cents cover materials cost,35 cents pay for Chinese labor.The remaining 1$for transportation in ChinaThe remaining 7$for transportation,marketing,wholesaling and retailing.$1 for the Mattel.,http:/,Outsourcing,First measurement:trade is categoriz
8、ed by the end-user.The U.S.trade shifts away from agriculture and raw materials,and towards manufactured goods in the U.S.trade.Processed manufactured goods play an increasing important role in U.S.trade.Outsourcing is important!U.S.firms have been substituting away from these processing activities
9、at home.,http:/,http:/,Outsourcing on the value-chain,http:/,Another measurement:imported intermediate goods,http:/,The World is Flat,Vertical specification:another name of OutsourcingU.S.has a doubling of the share of imported inputs between 1975 and 1995 for all manufacturing.The U.K.shows an espe
10、cially large absolute increase in foreign outsourcing.,http:/,http:/,Chinas Current Trade Performance,Trade GrowthTrade LiberalizationAccede to the WTOTrade PatternIncrease of the inward FDI,http:/,GATT/WTO Members,http:/,Trade Openness,China became the 143rd member of the GATT/WTOChina keeps a larg
11、e trade surplus.Trade openness is$2,170 billion,which is more than 63%of current GDP in 2007The third largest one in the worldCurrent Export is$969 billion and import is$792 billion.So trade surplus is$177 billion in 2006.,http:/,Dramatic Increase in Openness,http:/,Trade Openness,http:/,Chinas Curr
12、ent Trade Situation,Current trade openness is around 64%of GDP.Chinas share in world trade has grown steadily since 1979.,http:/,Chinas Trade,China has increased its penetration into rich countries market.,http:/,Chinas Trade,http:/,http:/,Chinas Trade,Simultaneously,it also becomes a more important
13、 export destination.,http:/,Chinas Trade,http:/,Chinas role in Asian Regional Trade,China is now among the most important export destinations for other Asian economies,http:/,Strong Export Potential Forward in China,Chinas integration with the world economy so far is not unprecedented in either its
14、scope or speed.Compared to Japan,Korea,and other NIEs in their fast development period,Chinas exports have grown at a slower rate than theirs.This suggests that China could maintain relatively high strong export growth for years to come.,http:/,http:/,Composition of Trade,Diversify from an initial h
15、eavy reliance on textile and other light manufacturing.In the early 1990s,exports profiles rank as follows:light manufacturing,textile,machinery and transport(small electronics).Today,China exports more sophisticated electronics,furniture,travel goods,and industrial supplies.,http:/,Intra-Industry T
16、rade,Sources:database of China Customs,http:/,Outsourcing in China,http:/,Trade Balance,China keeps a modest overall trade surplus.China has significant trade surplus from trade with the U.S.But it was offset by an increasing trade deficit with the rest of Asia.,http:/,http:/,Sino-U.S.Bilateral Trad
17、e,This year China reaches a$144 billion trade surplus with the U.S.Simultaneously,more than 3 million workers lost their jobs.Congressmen in the U.S.threat to perform trade sanction with China.Impose 27.4%high tariffs.Push RMB revaluate strongly and quickly.Pending the permanent most favored nation(
18、MFN)treatment.,http:/,Questions,Economically speaking,is it deficit necessary bad for the deficit country,and good for the surplus country?Any essential link between the blue-worker unemployment and trade deficit?Is it credible for the U.S.congressional threat?,http:/,Trade Deficit is not necessaril
19、y bad!,Check the basic trade identity:Trade Deficit=Net Inflow of Foreign CapitalTrade deficit is like borrowing money from foreigners.The key point is how to use.Investment or Consumption?Historical stories in 1980s,1990s,and 2000s.,http:/,Trade Deficit itself is not Bad,Trade deficit means financi
20、ng from other countries.How to use such money?Consume it?Invest it?,http:/,Trade Surplus is not necessarily good!,Statistically,it is good for GDP calculation.But GDP does not mean anything!Export Booming and Productivity ImprovementThe termination of Multilateral Fiber Agreement(MFA)in 2005.Green G
21、DP,http:/,The Far Cry from U.S.Workers,Any essential link between the blue-worker unemployment and trade deficit?No.The elasticity of substitution between Chinese export and other Asian countries export is very high.The essential reason for huge unemployment is due to the economy recession in years
22、2001-2003 in the U.S.,http:/,The Congressional Threat,It is incredible.The U.S.does not have any right to terminate our permanent MFN treatment.They dont dare to uni-laterally impose high tariffs on Chinese textile and garments.It violates the WTO principles.It worse the U.S.itself due to the elasti
23、city of exports and imports.It already gets historical lesson from the stupid policy.,http:/,RMB Appreciation Helps?,http:/,RMB Appreciation Helps?,China appreciates its RMB around 20%within 3 years,http:/,RMB Appreciation Helps?,Change in exchange rate might help reduce the bilateral trade deficit,
24、but cannot reduce the U.S.whole deficit.Trading pattern in China and the ASEAN-10 are quite similar.U.S.has to import similar products at a higher cost.The revaluation may not translate into significant higher prices for Chinese products sold in the U.S.China firms may cut their profit margins to ma
25、intain their price instead.Even if prices go up,U.S.consumers may be slow to switch to competing producers from other countries,which causes more trade deficit in the short run.,http:/,What do we study in Trade?,Gains from TradeEach trading country gainsWithin a country,some gain but some losePatter
26、n of TradeWho trade with whom for what?Inter-sectional v.s.intra-sectional tradeGovernment Effect of Policy on TradeMultinational Cooperation and Foreign Direct Investment(FDI),http:/,Traditional Trade Theory,Smiths Absolute AdvantageRicardian Comparative AdvantageHeckscher-Ohlin TheoryViners Specif
27、ic Factors ModelKrugmans Increasing Returns to Scale ModelFeenstras Product Variety ModelMelitzs Intra-industry Trade,http:/,Top 10 Research Topics(Theoretical&Empirical),Heckscher-Ohlin Model(Leontief Paradox)Trade in Intermediate Goods,Wages,and OutsourcingIncreasing Returns and the Gravity Equati
28、onGains from Trade and Regional Trade AgreementImport Tariffs and NTBs(Dumping,Quotas,and Subsidies)International Political Economy of Trade PolicyTrade and Endogenous GrowthMultinationals and Organization of the FirmTrade and EnvironmentTrade and Geography,http:/,Top World-class Trade Economists,TheoryBhagwatiGrossmanHelpmanKrugmanStaigerMelitz,EmpiricsBaldwinFeenstraLeamerTreflerBlonigen,http:/,
