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1、,From Vulnerability to Risk从脆弱性到风险,Risk Assessment Methodology:风险评估方法学介绍An IntroductionTuesday,07th June 2011,Vulnerability,Vulnerability is a function of the character,magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed,its sensitivity to those variations and its adaptive capacity.
2、脆弱性:用来描述系统暴露于气候变化下的特性,尺度和概率,也包括系统对于气候变化的敏感度和适应能力.,System 系统 个人,户,社区,市区,基础设施,经济部门,生态系统,省,国家.individual,household,neighbourhood,urban area/city,infrastructure,economic sector,ecological system,province,or nation.-Can be linked and are often dependent on each other 互相依赖,Vulnerability 脆弱性,Exposure natur
3、e and degree to which a system may be exposed to climate variability and change(largely dependent on location)暴露率:系统暴露于气候变化和变异的特性和程度(受所在地影响很大)Sensitivity degree to which a system is affected(adversely or beneficially)by changes in climate(including variability and extremes)敏感度:系统受气候变化(变异和极端事件)影响的程度(
4、正面/负面影响)Adaptive Capacity ability of a system to:适应能力:adjust to climate-including climate variability and extremes,to moderate potential damages,to take advantage of opportunities,or to cope with the consequences 系统适应气候变化(变异和极端事件)的能力,也包括降低未来受损程度,抓住机遇,处理好气候变化后果的能力 shift strategies,make choices and re
5、spond to opportunities in order to manage both direct and indirect climate impacts.改变战略,做出选择,抓住机遇来应对直接和非直接的气候影响.,Vulnerability,Current vulnerability function of the current state of the system the exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity now.目前的脆弱性:系统目前的功能暴露率,敏感度和适应能力 Considers current climate(inc
6、luding variability and trends)and current socio-economic and environmental drivers 考虑目前的气候(包括变异和趋势)以及目前的社会经济和环境驱动因素Future vulnerability established by developing scenarios of how current exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity might change 未来的脆弱性:通过建立预测目前的暴露率,敏感度和适应能力将如何变化的情景来确立 Can also introduc
7、e consider implementation of various adaptation strategies and/or various social,environmental,economic,infrastructure and land-use development pathways are chosen.可以考虑实施不同的适应战略/社会,环境,经济,基础设施和选择不同的土地使用路线.Considers both climate and socio-economic scenarios 考虑气候和社会经济情景,Determinates of Biophysical and
8、Social Vulnerability 生物物理和社会脆弱性的决定因素,Biophysical Vulnerability生物物理脆弱性,Climate variability,extremes and change(thresholds/sensitivities)气候变异,极端气候和变化(临界点/敏感度)Elevation/topography 海拔/地形Land use 土地使用Ecosystem,habitat quality 生态系统/居住地质量Water availability and quality 水源质量/可获得性Physical infrastructure 物理设施H
9、ealth(animal/human)健康(动物/人),Social Vulnerability 社会脆弱性,Economic diversity,wealth/poverty 经济多样性,财富/贫穷Public health system 公共健康体系Institutions,governance 制度,治理Knowledge,information and technology 知识,信息和科技Planning,policy making and perspectives 规划,政策制定和方案Social cohesion/capital 社会凝聚力/社会资本Equity 公平Politi
10、cal stability 政治稳定Connectivity 连接性,Vulnerability is not the same as Risk脆弱性不能等同于风险,Risk likelihood that particular consequences might happen based on the state of the system(i.e.vulnerability).风险基于系统特性未来会发生的某种特定后果的可能性,Why a Risk Assessment?为什么要做风险评估?,Faced with an uncertain future 面临不确定的未来Risk-based
11、 approach to managing in the context of these changes(climate and other drivers)a rationale approach 一个理性的应对方式:在气候与其它变化的背景下使用基于风险的管理方式Risk assessment 风险评估Used to identify risks necessary but insufficient 用来确定风险必要但是不充分Used to concentrate adaptation efforts(investments,policies and practices)on those
12、risks deemed priorities 用来指导针对风险的优先适应手段(投资,政策和实施)Adaptation assessment identifying“appropriate”adaptation options and strategies and evaluating them in terms of criteria such as effectiveness,efficiency,costs,flexibility,robustness and legitimacy.适应评估确定”合适的”适应对策/战略,以有效性,效率,成本,灵活性,健全性,合法性等标准进行评估,Vuln
13、erability and risk can and will change 脆弱性和风险能够并且会发生改变,Risk can change as a result of changes in likelihood and/or changes in vulnerability.风险会因为本身的不确定性和脆弱性发生改变而改变.Vulnerability can change 脆弱性会发生改变if proactive measures to reduce sensitivity and exposure and/or increase adaptive capacity are taken be
14、cause risk is recognised.如果认知风险后,预先采取措施减少敏感性和暴露程度/增强适应能力的话after something has happened and the system responds to the consequences.当事件发生后,系统做出响应的话Note:When conducting vulnerability and risk assessments,start with establishing the current,baseline conditions BEFORE moving onto developing future scenarios of vulnerability and risk.注意:在进行脆弱性和风险评估的时候,要先着手建立当前的基线条件,然后再搭建脆弱性和风险的未来情景,Information needed is that to support decision and policy making Sustained and informed engagement of users and providersAccess and support are necessary,Learning from experience and sharing,THANK YOU!,
