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1、那场电影真是奇怪Thatwasaweirdmovie.我还以为是喜剧呢Yeah,fromthereviews,Ithoughtitwasgonnabemoreofacomedy,huh?我觉得不错Ithoughtitwasprettygood.青少年都喜欢无聊的电影BOY:Teenagerslikeboringmovies.你只喜欢卡♥通♥罢Youonlylikecartoons.我只是不喜欢某人喜欢的无聊电影No.Ijustdon,tlikeboringmoviesaboutpeopleinlove.我能吃冰激凌吗？Canwegeticecream?不行我们得赶快
2、回家No,wegottogethome.得了吧反正都顺路Oh,comeon.It,sontheway.Kindof其实并不是顺路Actually,bud,its-it,snotatall.Youknow?我很喜欢However.知道你想吃Youknowyouwantto.既然你这样说Well,see,ifyouputitlikethat,then.哈哈Haha爸爸Dad!怎么回事？Whatwasthat?!抓住方向盘Takethewheel!我正在努力mtryingto,mtryingto!爸爸爸爸Dad!Dad!当心要撞车了Watchout,youregonnahit.!当心Stop!Sto
3、p!快停车Dad?Dad?爸爸？-爸爸？Dad!-Dad?爸爸Dad!好运气1.adyluck.偶然性Chance.随机性Randomness.人类的理解过程很漫长Humanbeingstrulyhaveahardtimeunderstandingit雨滴是随机的Raindropsfallrandomly.下列的哪幅图更像是Now,whichofthesetwoimagesbestrepresents人行道上的雨滴痕迹？raindropsfallingonasidewalk?是A图吗？IsitimageA?是B图吗？好的ImageB?Okay.你们错了Yourewrong.我们的大脑错将平均O
4、urbrains看作是随机misperceiveevennessasrandom,并且错误地认为团形是故意的andwronglyassumethatgroupingsaredeliberate.基于此人们通常Becauseofthis,peoplemakeallsorts做出非理性的选择Ofirrationaldecisions.比如不在高楼里面工作或者他们1.ike,they-theywontworkinahigh-risebuilding,害怕住在地震高发区ortheyreafraidtoliveinanearthquake-pronearea.然而数学评估告诉我们Andyet,amath
5、ematicalassessmenttellsus你在床上闷死的可能性thatyouarefarmorelikelytosuffocateinbed要高于死于恐怖袭击的可能thanyouaretodieinaterroristattack.你醉酒而死的可能要比Youaretentimesmorelikely死于地震的可能性高10倍todiefromalcoholthanfrombeinginanearthquake.并且你买♥♥彩票途中Anditisthreetimesmorelikely被撞死的可能性thatyouwillbekilledwhiledriving是
6、你中彩票可能性的tobuyalotteryticketthanitisthatyouwill.三倍还多thatyouwillwinthelottery.他们说他是被枪杀的Theysaidhewasshot.是的我们也是这样估计的Yeah,thatswhatwethink.你能想到有谁Isthereanyone想伤害你的丈夫吗？whowouldwanttoharmyourhusband?不没人No.Noone.我是DonEppesFBImDonEppes,FBI.MariaMarla.你知道是谁干的吗？So,doyouknowwhodidit?目前还不知道我们在调查Notyet,but-butw
7、ereworkingonit.我在新闻上听说Iheardonthenews高速公路上有袭击therewereattacksonthefreeways.是的是这样Yeah.That,strue.但是我们不知道这些事件和Butwedon,tknowifthoseincidentsarerelated对你丈夫的袭击有何关联tothe,uh,theattackonyourhusbandatall.是的我们想进行Right,Imean,whatwedliketodoifwecanisjusttakea.打搅了Kinkirk夫人？Excuseme.Uh,Mrs.Kinkirk?是的Yes.你丈夫很稳定Yo
8、urhusbandsstable.谢天谢地ThankGod.有些事情需要商量Thereareissuesthatneedtobediscussed.好的Allright.我们离开一会儿Wellgiveyouafewminutes.等你把事情谈完Wellwaitforyoudownhere.请别走Oh,pleasestay.呃Um.我带这些小家伙lltaketheseguys.我们去那边玩玩怎么样？Whydontwegohangoutthere,guys?1谢谢Okay.Thankyou.不用谢Comeon.Itsallright.你丈夫头部被枪击伤Yourhusbandsustainedagu
9、nshotwoundtohishead.幸运的是1.uckily,子弹没有更深入thebulletdidnotpenetratefar.它在右脑垂处It,slodgedintherightoccipitallobe.我们的神经外科医生很信心Ourneurosurgeonisconfidentthathecanremoveit不造成损害而取出子弹withoutfurtherdamage.你们能告诉我So,canyouguystellmeanythingatall当时的情况吗？thatyourememberfromwhathappened?我听到车后有声巨响Iheardaloudcrashfrom
10、theback.我转过身Pete吓惨了Iturned,andPetewasscared.被声音吓惨了Fromthenoise.是的Right.随后我看到了血AndthenIsawtheblood.我和pete都AndIlooked看着一个地方wherePetewaslooking.我看到Isaw爸爸受伤了Dadwashurt.之后又怎么了？So,whathappenedthen?我抓住方向盘Igrabbedthewheel,andItried避免撞车tokeepusfromcrashing.是的真是聪明Yeah,well,that,ssmart.Youknow,真是不错在枪响之前itsgood
11、thinking.Now,有没有什么突现的东西？rightbeforetheshot,isthereanythingthatstoodout?比如汽车或者其他东西？Anycarsoranythingthatyoumightremember?我不知道Idontknow.我想当时Ithinkmaybe有辆白色的卡车therewasawhitetruck?好的Okay.我没看清谁在开车Ididn,tseewhowasdrivingit.对不起我没看见Sorry,Ididntseeit.我们爸爸应该没事吧？Is-Isourdadgoingtobeokay?是的Yeah.我们会尽力And,youknow
12、,we,regonnadoeverythingwecan找到这家伙的tofindtheguy.8周之内就有7次袭击Wegotsevenfreewayattacksineightweeks.4人死亡Fourpeopledead.你没事吧？Youokay?我向那些孩子撒谎了Well,youknow,Ijustliedtothosekids.不你让他们没那么难过No,youmadethemfeelDon这很艰难不是吗？alittlebetter,Don.Itsatoughtime,right?我是个白♥痴♥一切看上去都很好manidiot,actinglikeeveryt
13、hingsgonnabenormal.那些孩子得相信Thosekidsneedtobelievethat一切会好起来的iftheyregonnamakeitthrough.得了吧Dave他们的生活从此改变了Comeon,Dave.Theirlivesarenevergonnabethesame.没有敌人或者Y:Theresnoindication经济婚姻问题ofenemies,financialormaritaltroubles.没有任何目击证人Witnesstestimonyandtipscameupempty.好的我们有什么发现？Allright,sowhathavewegothere?两
14、个月内7次袭击Wegotsevenattacksintwomonths.你怎么想Megan是连环杀人吗？Whatdoyouthink,Megan,serial?如果是的话都是非♥典♥型的MEGAN:Uh,ifso,it,satypical.所有的受害者都是随机的AlltheMOsaredifferent.是的以前的袭击用的是小箭Yeah,thepreviousattackswehadawristrocket,石头砖块铁块thrownrock,brick,tireiron,高尔夫球杆之后又是枪击golfclub,andthenarifleshot.现在我们在找寻附近持
15、枪的人Nowwerelookingatahandgunfromcloserange.受害者也和犯罪分♥析♥不符Victimsdontfitaprofile,either.是的富人穷♥人♥亚裔DAVID:Yeah,it,srich,poor,Asian,拉丁裔白人各种各样1.atino,whites,acrossthespectrum.也许并不止一个凶手MEGAN:Youknow,maybeinstead可能有着一大批模仿者ofonesociopath,wehaveabunchofcopycats.也许根本就没有规律Maybetheresn
16、opatternatall.我就是这样说的CharIieMEGAN:ThatswhatIjustsaid,Charlie.根本没有规律Theresnopattern.一个单独的袭击者Asingleassailant,或者一堆模仿者都会有规律orabunchofcopycatsbothimplyapattern.我的意思是No.Whatmsuggestinghereis,这些袭击的发生thesegroupingsofshootingsmight,youknow,极有可能是随机的verywellberandom.7起袭击亳无关联？Sevencompletelyunrelatedattacks?当然
17、了想想看CHARLIE:Sure.Considerthis.一个MP3有着随机的歌♥曲排列对吗？AnMP3playerhasarandomshufflefunction,right?使用运算法则来创建随机列表Itusesanalgorithmtocreatearandomordertoplaythesongs.但是当人们欣赏这些Butwhenpeoplelisten随机的播放列表时totheirrandomshufflemode,他们可以发现规律theydoperceivepatterns.这完全是巧合Thatsjustpurecoincidence.人们常说MP3播放的歌&he
18、arts;都是一定的PeoplesweartheirMP3playersliketoplaycertainsongs.我就喜欢听ZZToPIknowminehasathingforZZTop.是的正确CHARLIE:Right,right.这就是为什么人类发现规律Andthatsexactlyit-thathumanbeingsperceivepatterns而实际上没有任何规律wheretherejustarentany.好的除非发现新证据Allright,look,youknow,untilweknowdifferent,我们都以个案方式进行调查thenweregonnapursuethe
19、seasindividualcrimes,allright?Hey.嘿LaiTy你有空吗？Hey,Larry,doyouhaveaminute?是的从这里到我办公室Yes,Ihavetheeightandahalfminutes有8分半钟的时间ittakesmetowalktomyoffice.如果需要更多时间的话Now,ifweneedmoretime,我想我们可以迂回而行Iguesswecouldchoosealongerroute,也许可以在水塘边停上一会儿maybestopandcontemplatetheturtlepond.或者直接去你的办公室Orwecouldjustkeepta
20、lkingatyouroffice.虽然风景不行但是无所谓了Yeah,itsnotasscenic,butsure.我感觉到有些奇怪Youknow,mfindingitalittlestrange,当了很久的学生马上成为教授uh,beingaprofessorafterbeingastudentforsolong.哦(laughing):Oh.我们都是这样年轻人Wehaveallbeenthere,myyoungfriend.我感觉应该去听讲座Imean,IfeellikeIshouldbegoingtolectures,而不是给别人讲notgivingthem.我碰上以前的老师Youknow
21、,Irunintoformerteachers看上去一切如故everydaywhoactlikenothingschanged.这就是为什么人们离开Thatswhy,youknow,取得博士的学校peopleusuallyleavetheschool然后到其他地方教书wheretheyearntheirdoctorateandgooffandteachelsewhere.CalSci给你的工作你不能拒绝？But,what,CalScimadeyouanofferyoucouldntrefuse?我不知道Idontknow.也许我在东岸会过得更好MaybeIwouldhavebeenbetter
22、offontheEastCoast.不不这和地理无关No,no,no,no.Comeon,thisisnotaboutgeography.听着你自己必须喜欢这个新角色1.isten,youyourselfmustembracethisnewrole.只有这样别人才会对你刮目相看Causeonlythenwillothersbeabletoseeyoudifferently.哇哦Wow.1.arry即使对你而言这也很深奥1.arry,evenforyou,thatwasprofound.我猜你刚好碰到我Iguessyoujustcaughtmewhenthecaffeine端着咖啡了来吧wask
23、ickingin.Comeon.我能理解随机性的含义MEGAN:Igettheconceptofrandomclusters,Ido,但是公路袭击肯定有什么因素的butroadrageisassociatedwithcertainfactors,但是在这些案件中都没有noneofwhicharepresentinanyofthesecases.等等你所说的因素Wait.Whenyousayfactors,比如天气？youmean,like,whalikeweather?是的堵车种族冲突交通事故Yeah,andbadtraffic,andracialconflicts,andaccints.让人
24、们变的紧张和愤怒Stuffthatmakespeopletenseandangry.这么说不是典型的袭击Allright,so,itsnotatypicalstreak.不是的还有其他隐情那个小儿子PeteNo,andtheressomethingelse-theyoungestboy,Pete,said说他看见了辆白色的皮卡车hethoughthesawawhitepickuptruck.他认为那也是当天早上Nowhethinkshesawthesametruck路过他家的那辆车drivebyhishousethatmorning.什么？白色卡车？What?Awhitepickuptruck
25、?到处都有这种车Imean,theyreallovertheplace.他说两辆车板上都有水泡和舞者的图案Hesaysbothhadabobble-headedhuladanceronthedashboard.你是怎么想的？Yeah?Whatdoyouthink?他才9岁又受了惊吓并且在回忆Ithinkhesnine,andhesbeentraumatized,但是这可能显示andhessearching,butitopensupthepossibilityJeffKinkirk被跟踪了thatJeffKinkirkwasstalked,youknow?他并不是随机的Thathesnotara
26、ndomvictim.好的从两方面入手Allright.Well,look,playbothsides.Imean,弄一份白卡车名单getalistofwhitepickuptrucksfromtheDMV并且和其他人合作and-andworkitwiththeguys.另一方面是什么？WhatstheOtherside?他妻子说他Well,thewifesaidshedidntthink没有任何敌人但是她有可能thehusbandhadanyenemies,but,Imean,隐瞒一些东西maybeshewashidingsomethingfromus.好的Okay.我清理垃圾Itookou
27、tthegarbage,帮助Pete做作业helpedPetewithhishomework.家里一切都很好Everythingsgoodathome.嘿Hey.他怎么样？Howshedoing?他们取出了子弹Theygotthebulletout.我们现在只能等待了Nowwejusthavetowait.你找到那辆白卡车了吗？PETE:Didyoufindthewhitetruck?目前还没有PeteNotyet,Pete,但是我们有很多人在调查but,Imean,wegotalotofpeopleworkingonit我需要和你们妈妈谈一下Guys,Ineedtospeaktoyourmo
28、可以吗？foraminute.Isthatokay?你儿子Pete在枪击那天DON:Look,yoursonPetethinks看见了一辆白色皮卡车hesawawhitepickuptruckthedayoftheshooting.这也可能是那天停在你家附近的.Nowitspossiblethatthatsametruckwasnearyourhousethatday.有人跟踪Jeff?SomeonewasfollowingJeff?是的Yeah.你知道什么原因吗？Anyreasonforthat?不我想不出原因No.I-Icantthinkofanything.你丈夫在工作上有什么问题吗Do
29、esyourhusbandhaveanyproblemsatwork,或者邻里问题任何事情？orwithneighbors,anythingatall?不什么都没有No,theresnothing.有人想伤害你吗？Anyonewanttohurtyou?我？是的Me?Yeah.这我可不知道NotthatIknowof.Marla有人想杀你丈夫Marla,somebodytried你就一点都不知道tokillyourhusband,and,Imean,是谁还有什么原因吗？youhavenoideaaboutwhoorwhy?这没道理-也许是什么小事情Itdoesntmakesense.Imean
30、,itcouldbesomethingminor.比如争停车位之类的Justevena-afightoveraparkingspace.什么都没有你不了解JeffThatsjustit.YouhavetounderstandJeff.他会先让别人停车的Hedletsomeoneelsehavetheparkingspace.如果他有缺点的话那就是他太好了(voicebreaking):Ifhehasaflaw,it,sthathetriestoohardtobenice.好的我都知道了Okay.Allright,that,s-that,sallIneed.来吧没事了Comeon.Thatsal
31、lright.我们要调查白卡车Thoughtwewerelookingforawhitetruck.我已经调查了177辆rvechecked177sofar.我也在调查其他因素mjustalsocheckingsomeotherfactors.调查交通事故天气1.ookingattraffic,weather,雇佣情况每天情况employment,每周情况timeofday,dayoftheweek.想在一堆随机事件中1.ookingforapatterninaseries找到规律吗？ofrandomevents?哦Eppes教授不会同意的Oh,dear.ProfessorEppeswould
32、ntapprove.好的是这样的Okay,buthere,sthething.这些袭击和典型的公路袭击Noneoftheseattackscanbelinkedtothetypicalcauses没有任何关联offreewayviolence比如堵车热天黑社会袭击likebadtrafficandhotweather.Gangshootings.7次随机的袭击就没有一起Sevenrandomfreewayattacks,andnotoneofthem符合公路袭击的分♥析♥?fitsaprofileofarandomfreewayattack?我懂你的意思了Yeah,
33、Iseewhatyouresaying.至少有某种典型原因Atleastsomeshouldhavetypicalcauses.我们不知道任何袭击者Allwehaveareinvisibleassailants或者是任何动机andnomotives.是的某些事情会不会太随机了Yeah,Imean,isitpossible而似乎不像是随机的？forsomethingtobetoorandomtoberandom?不好意思太随机了？CHARLIE:msorry,toorandom?是的太随机MEGAN:Yeah.Tooran.某些事情可以有些随机Uh,somethingcanbealittlera
34、ndom.有些可能很随机Somethingcanbeveryrandom.但是没有But,no.没有太随机的说法No,no,not,nottoorandom.怎么了？Why?我们只是假设这些袭击Well,we,rejustkindofassuming都是一系列的随机事件thatallthesefreewayattacksareaseriesofrandomevents,但是没有一起和公路袭击的butnotoneofthemcanbelinked典型原因有关联tothetypicalcausesoffreewayviolence.就像公路报复之类的？Youme,likeroadrage,stuf
35、flikethat?是的实际上70%的公路袭击Yeah,actually.都源于司机的口角冲突70%ofalltrafficassaultsstemfromargumentsbetweendrivers,特别当一方有着所谓的especiallyifoneortheother间歇性暴♥力♥紊乱症hassomethingcalledIntermittentExplosiveDisorder.哦我们以前叫脑子有病Oh,weusedtocallthathavingascrewloose.我父亲就是脑子有病(laughing):Mydadhad.thatscrewloose,
36、但是爆发性愤怒会比较厉害but,uh,explosiveragecanbealittlemoreserious.人们可能亳无原因地Peoplecanerupt大发脾气intoviolentangerforseeminglynoreason.我懂你的意思了好的Iseewhatyouresaying.Okay.你是说在个案中Youresayingthatinthisparticularstring,没有典型的原因-嗯therearenoneofthetypicalcauses.Mm-hmm,这样的几率有多大？andwhataretheoddsofthat?我觉得这不太可能Iwouldsaythat
37、theyrenotverygood.如果有规律而你没发现呢？Whatiftheresapatternthatyourejustnotabletodetect?变量隐藏理论Hiddenvariabletheory.也就是说世上的一切Theideathat,that都不是随机的nothinginthisworldiseverreallyrandom,有种影响或者力量thatthereissomeinfluence是我们所不知道的orsomeforcethatwecantdetect.这些都是非♥典♥型的袭击不奇怪吗？Isn,tit,like,weirdthatnoneo
38、ftheseattacksaretypical?一件都不是？Notone?奇怪是的不太可能是的Weird,yeah.Unlikely,yeah.不可能Impossible,不是的no.有什么发现？Howsitgoing?已检查白色卡车1307辆Whitepickupschecked:1,307.只剩下162000辆要杳了Onlyabout162,000lefttogo.想想你查完之后的OhJustthink那种成就感吧ofthesenseofaccomplishmentyoullhavewhenyouredone.好的有什么发现？Right.Howyoudoing?调查人们之间的联&heart
39、s;系♥1.ookingforconnectionsbetweenpeople,总会有意外收获的youalwaysfindmorethanyouexpect,youknow.但是绝大多数是没用的Yeah,mostofitdoesntmeananything,though.两个受害者穿的一样的牛仔裤Twovictimsworethesamebrandofjeans,读的同一个大学wenttothesamecollege.我觉得这个比较有意思IgotoneIwanttotakealookat.两名受害者去的同一个洗车场？Thesetwovictimsusedthesamecarwas
40、h?我调查雇员名单Iwanttogetalistofemployees,看看是否有前科seeifanybodyhasarecord.好的我去当地警♥察♥局看看Allright,llcheckwiththelocalcops.2号♥受害者和5号♥受害者COLBY:Victimsnumbertwoandnumberfive,HenryRains和CeceSmithHenryRainsandCeceSmith.他们都是Valley洗车场的顾客TheyrebothpatronsoftheValleyCarWash.Rains和其中一名雇员Now,
41、Rainsgotintoayellingmatch有过争吵withoneoftheworkersthere.两周后他头部中弹死亡Twoweekslater,heskilledbyarifleshot.当时在吵什么？Whatwasthefightabout?他说雇员从车里偷钱Heaccusedtheworkeroftakingmoneyoutofhiscar,越吵越大声startedgettingloudwithhim,老板不得不报♥警♥sothecarwashmanagerhadtocallthecops,但是Rains早就走了butRainssplitbefore
42、theygotthere.他和谁争吵？Sowhodidheaccuse?CalvinOatesCalvinOates.5年前被酒吧解雇了Fiveyearsago,he,sthrownoutofabar.随后开着车Comesback,firesahandgunoutthefrontwindow向酒吧里面射击fromamovingcar.洗车场和其他受害者有联♥系♥吗？Carwashhavelinkstoanyoftheothervictims?还在调查-把他带过来tgopickhimup.今日特惠只要11.95美元Managerspecialtoday.$11,95.
43、上蜡底盘修护轮胎保养Wax,underbody,tiredressing.空气加香怎么样？Whatair-freshener?我们会让FBI车♥库♥全部搞定的谢谢WelettheFBIgaragetakecareofallthat,thankyou.我们在找CalvinOatesHey,werelookingforCalvinOates.天啊我穿的是新衣服Man,Ijusthadthissuitcleaned.退后退后You,backup!Backup!把棒子给我快给我Givemethebat,givemethebat.I射谢Thankyou.下次就交给我们了Nex
44、ttime,leaveittotheprofessionals.你被解雇了Yourefired.来吧Comeon那家伙说我偷了他的钱DudesaidIstolehismoney.他开始对我吼叫Hestartedscreaming,comingatme.我什么都没做Ididntdonothing.当警♥察♥来时他走掉了Whenthemanagercalledthecops,hesplit.你为什么跑呢？Sowhydyourun?我太蠢了Stupid.是的(laughing):Yeah.警♥察♥来了我就不知所措了Whencopsshowup,Igetlost.我以为不会追我Ididn,tthinktheydbothertochaseme因为我什么都没做cause.Ididntdoanythingwrong.那家伙让你很生气Well,thatguymusthavemadeyoufurious.他当着同事和老板的面Hecalledyouathief骂你是个小偷infrontofyourbossandyourco-workers.别跟我玩心理游戏Dontstartthepsychcrap.我做了3年的vebeeninangermanagementtherapy心理治疗forthreeyears.我知道被激怒的感觉I
